Qatar is expected to run a budget surplus of QR14.1bn (1.7% of GDP) this year and see the surplus more than tripling in 2026, on LNG production boost, according to researcher Oxford Economics.

In its latest ‘Qatar Economic Forecast’, Oxford Economics said its “energy price forecasts are little changed, with Brent oil at $70 per barrel for this year and $64 for 2026.”

“We keep our 2025 GDP growth forecast at 2.7%. This comes on the back of a strong start to the year, with recently reported GDP data showing growth of 3.7% y/y in Q1. The non-energy sector's GDP registered growth of 5.3%, while the energy sector grew by 1%,” noted Oxford Economics in its report authored by Maya Senussi, Lead Economist.

“We anticipate GDP growth will nearly double in 2026-2027, with the energy and non-energy sectors contributing positively this year and beyond. We anticipate no noticeable direct impact on Qatar from US tariffs as the US is the destination for less than 2% of Qatar's goods exports. That said, we think the trade-related uncertainty will continue to be a headwind against global demand,” Oxford Economics said.

Last year, the authorities doubled down on the North Field gas expansion project, which will have a positive medium-term impact. Qatar raised its liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity target to 142mn tonnes per year (mtpy) by end-2030.

This is up nearly 85% from the current 77mtpy, and up 13% on the intermediate target of 126mtpy by 2027.

The first production boost will come from the North Field East project by mid-2026, followed by the North Field South phase of the expansion.

The North Field West phase is in its early stages, with construction likely to begin in 2027.

The latest monthly report from the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) showed Qatar's LNG production trends supported an increase in exports in July.

Qatar continues to make progress in selling its future gas output. The government has signed long-term supply contracts with India, China, France, Germany, Hungary, Kuwait, and Taiwan, and is negotiating a deal with Japan.

According to Oxford Economics, Qatar isn't involved in the OPEC+ pact on production quotas and its oil output has been relatively flat in recent years, at around 600,000 barrels per day (bpd).

“We think growth in the energy sector will pick up modestly this year (following a 0.6% expansion in 2024), before rising strongly in 2026-2027,” Oxford Economics noted.