US tariffs to delay global renewable targets by 3-5 years; $8bn investments in clean energy cancelled in Q1: Al Attiyah Foundation report

Trade policy uncertainty has become one of the most critical — and overlooked — threats to the global energy transition, according to the Al-Attiyah Foundation’s latest Sustainability Research Paper.Titled "Tariffs, Trade, and Transition: The Impact of Trade Barriers on Sustainable Energy Goals”, the report examines how recent trade actions, such as the US imposing tariffs exceeding 250% on solar panels and up to 100% on battery components, are disrupting the international flow of clean energy technologies.With solar photovoltaic supply chains alone spanning over 50 countries, even a single policy shift can delay or derail projects on a global scale, it said.The paper highlights that these trade restrictions could delay global renewable energy targets by 3–5 years, while non-tariff barriers — such as local content mandates, certification rules, and technical standards — are adding 15&–25% in compliance costs to clean energy projects.These disruptions have real economic impacts in the first quarter of 2025 alone, nearly $8bn in clean energy investments were cancelled, including major battery and solar manufacturing projects in the US.Highlighting that supply chain concentration adds another layer of vulnerability; the report said China currently dominates global manufacturing in key clean technologies and components, including solar modules, battery cells, and rare earth minerals.This has left the US, EU, and others exposed to policy shocks such as China’s recent export restrictions on graphite and lithium, according to the report.However, the paper also identifies strategic opportunities.The Middle East and North Africa (Mena) countries — including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, and Egypt — possess substantial reserves of critical minerals like lithium, phosphate, and copper, which are essential to clean energy supply chains.Combined with their geographic location bridging Europe, Asia, and Africa, these nations are well-positioned to develop into regional clean energy trade and production hubs, it said.The foundation’s analysis calls for urgent international policy coordination to prevent further fragmentation.Scenario modelling shows that eliminating half of current trade barriers could increase global solar PV deployment by 7% and reduce cumulative emissions by up to 12 giga-tonnes of carbon dioxide or CO₂ by 2060.