Qatar’s real GDP growth is projected to be 2.4% this year and 2.2% in 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Tuesday.
In its World Economic Outlook released on the sidelines of the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group in Marrakesh, Morocco Tuesday, IMF said the country’s current account balance will be 17.6% this year and 15.4% in 2024.
Qatar’s consumer price (CPI) is projected to be 2.8% this year and 2.3% in 2024.
According to the IMF, growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is projected to decline from 5.6% in 2022 to 2% in 2023, before picking up to 3.4% in 2024, with a 0.5 percentage point downward revision for 2023 and a 0.2 percentage point upward revision for 2024.
The change for 2023 is attributable mainly to a steeper-than-expected growth slow-down in Saudi Arabia, from 8.7% in 2022 to 0.8% in 2023, with a negative revision to the latter of 1.1 percentage point.
The downgrade for growth in Saudi Arabia in 2023 reflects announced production cuts, including unilateral cuts and those in line with an agreement through OPEC+.
Private investment, including that from “gigaproject” implementation, continues to support non-oil GDP growth, which remains strong and unchanged from previous projections.
The downgrade for 2023 also reflects cuts to the growth forecast for Sudan to about –18.3% (a downward revision of nearly 20 percentage points) reflecting the outbreak of conflict, deteriorating domestic security, and the worsening humanitarian situation.
The upgrade for 2024 reflects the unwinding of some of the announced production cuts, IMF said.
Global growth is forecast to slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024.
The projections remain below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8% and the forecast for 2024 is down by 0.1 percentage point from the July 2023 Update to the World Economic Outlook.
For advanced economies, the expected slowdown is from 2.6% in 2022 to 1.5% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024, amid stronger-than-expected US momentum but weaker-than-expected growth in the euro area.
Emerging market and developing economies are projected to have growth modestly decline, from 4.1% in 2022 to 4% in both 2023 and 2024, with a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point in 2024, reflecting the property sector crisis in China.
Forecasts for global growth over the medium term, at 3.1% are at their lowest in decades, and prospects for countries to catch up to higher living standards are weak.
Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 8.7% in 2022 to 6.9% in 2023 and 5.8% in 2024.
But the forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are revised up by 0.1 percentage point and 0.6 percentage point, respectively, and inflation is not expected to return to target until 2025 in most cases.
Risks to the outlook are more balanced than they were six months ago, on account of the resolution of US debt ceiling tensions and Swiss and US authorities’ having acted decisively to contain financial turbulence, IMF noted.
The likelihood of a hard landing has receded, but the balance of risks to global growth remains tilted to the downside.
China’s property sector crisis could deepen, with global spillovers, particularly for commodity exporters, IMF said.