‘Natural gas set to have highest share of 27% in global primary energy mix until 2050’

Natural gas is set to have the highest share in the primary global energy mix of 27% until 2050 as it continues to “receive positive policy support in several countries as an alternative to polluting and carbon-intensive fuels,” Doha-based Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) said yesterday.
The “GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050” was launched yesterday at the Sheraton Grand Doha at an event attended among other dignitaries by HE the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, Saad bin Sherida al-Kaabi and GECF secretary general Dr Yury Sentyurin.
Quantified through the use of the unique and highly granular GECF Global Gas Model, the 4th edition of the outlook has been based on proprietary assessments of the evolution of energy and gas market fundamentals through to 2050.
According to the outlook, natural gas, the fastest growing fossil fuel, is projected to rise by 1.3% per year from 3,924 bcm in 2018 to 5,966 bcm by 2050 driven by environmental concerns, air quality issues, coal-to-gas switching as well as economic and population growth.
Natural gas will be the only hydrocarbon resource to increase its share during the period under review.
The power generation (1.7% per year) and industrial (1.2% per year) sectors will be the biggest contributors, accounting for about 66% of additional gas demand volumes to 2050.
Gas production will rise by 1.3% per year to 2050, with North America accounting for the largest share of this growth, followed by Eurasia, Africa and the Middle East.
Production from unconventional resources will become increasingly important, and their share of overall output is expected to rise from 25% to 38% by 2050.
Gas production in GECF countries will grow by almost 50% by 2050 to over 2.5 tcm, underlining the continued importance of the group.
Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix and will amount to 71% in 2050, against 81% in 2018.
Oil will remain an important source of energy, but its share is expected to fall to 26%. Coal will drop sharply, providing only 18%, the outlook noted. 
It said over the next several years, the economy will grow more slowly and many risks to economic growth will be seen.
The medium-term economic outlook is impacted by the low price environment for the commodities, US-China trade tensions, Brexit complications, etc, with world trade growth slowing and impacting overall economic growth.
“We should not ignore some new risks when buyers declare force majeure as the coronavirus constrains commodity and energy markets,” Sentyurin said presenting the outlook.
However, the long-term outlook is healthy according to the key economic indicators, resulting in global GDP growth rate at 3.2% per year. Population growth and economic growth will drive energy demand.
In compliance with UN data, the global population is set to grow by 2.2bn to reach 9.8bn by 2050, therefore it is expanding the urban population to be a primary energy demand driver.
It is expected that energy markets will undergo significant transformations over the next three decades, as energy accessibility will unlock almost 30% of additional energy demand.
The GECF Global Gas Outlook is a unique worldwide energy outlook focusing solely on natural gas, which aims to be a global reference for insights into gas markets.
The publication represents an impartial view on gas market evolution by highlighting the most likely developments in the medium- and long-term.