Oil demand growth in the Middle East is expected to rise by 0.1mn bpd in 2018, same as that of this year, Opec has said in a new report.
"Expectations for the region for the remainder of 2017 appear skewed to the downside as the high level of substitution as well as possible subsidy reduction in Saudi Arabia should subdue demand growth," Opec said in its latest monthly report.
“In 2018, oil demand growth is expected to be at similar levels to the current year as the introduction of substitution programmes, efficiency gains and economic reforms are assumed to moderate oil demand growth in the short term,” Opec said.
Oil requirements were flat in Kuwait and Iran during the month of August 2017 and rose in the UAE and Qatar by 15 tb/d and 20 tb/d y-o-y, respectively.
In Saudi Arabia, August 2017 oil demand returned to a declining trend as oil demand dipped steeply by 0.26 mb/d, or 9% y-o-y, to reach approximately 2.67 mb/d.
In 2018, world oil demand is anticipated to grow by 1.4mn bpd, following an upward adjustment of 30 tb/d over the previous report, due to the improving economic outlook in the world economy, particularly China and Russia, Opec said. It is now anticipated to be around 1.38mn bpd, with total global consumption forecast at 98.19mn bpd.
World oil demand growth in 2017, according to Opec, is now expected to increase by 1.5mn bpd, representing an upward revision of around 30 tb/d from last previous report, mainly reflecting recent data showing an improvement in economic activities.
Positive revisions were primarily a result of higher-than-expected oil demand from the OECD region and China.
Non-Opec oil supply is expected to grow by 0.7mn bpd in 2017, following a downward revision of 0.1mn bpd from the previous report. In 2018, the growth in non-Opec oil supply saw a downward revision of 60 tb/d to stand at 0.9mn bpd.
Opec NGLs and non-conventional liquids production are seen averaging 6.5mn bpd in 2018, representing an increase of 0.2mn bpd, broadly in line with growth in the current year.
In September, Opec crude oil production increased by 88 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.75mn bpd.
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, Opec crude in 2018 is projected at 33.1mn bpd, about 0.3mn bpd higher than in 2017.
Opec crude in 2017 is estimated at 32.8mn bpd, around 0.6mn bpd higher than in 2016.
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