Three likely scenarios for the ongoing Gulf crisis were pointed out by experts at a panel discussion on Saturday during a seminar hosted by Al Jazeera Centre for Studies on 'Gulf Crisis: Ramifications and Future Scenarios.'
“A status quo prevalent before the crisis with limited escalation; a warm-war which is basically a continuation of what is happening now and the kind of stealth escalation seen around the region; or a complete escalation that will rummage the whole regional system,” said Dr Majed al-Ansari, professor of political science, Qatar University.
“These three scenarios are based on what the Americans and other international players are able to do. Further, it all depends on the political will in the blockading countries,” stated Dr al-Ansari.
Other panellists at the session included Jawad Anani, Jordan's former deputy prime minister; Emad Abshnas, professor of political sciences at University of Tehran; and Abdullah al-Shayji, professor and head of political science from Kuwait University.
Dr al-Ansari suggested that at the outset, "the Americans will have to exert real pressure on blockading countries to start negotiations with Qatar. Secondly, the international community has to come together in one voice to tell the blockading countries that their way of dealing a conflict is not acceptable in an international system today.”
According to the academic, what can be seen at the moment is more escalation from the blockading countries and their reluctance to talk. “But all of these are still based on the confusion in Washington. If there was a strong voice coming from America, the blockading countries would have to start negotiations. This crisis certainly has affected the whole idea of GCC negatively but I believe that at the end, time will heal all the wounds,” he added.
Dr al-Shayji, another panellist, pointed out that he could also foresee three likely emerging situations.
“One of them is that the situation will continue to escalate because the siege countries did not get their objectives realised. I rule out military action - it can be economical or media or moral posturing from the side of the siege countries,” he said.
“The second possibility is that the situation will continue as it is and each country will adjust itself according to the external circumstances that will impact them.The third scenario is a diplomatic or political action or allowing time so that these countries will have other things to focus and the priorities will change as time progresses,” he added.
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