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Beyond the TarmacAirlines are estimated to need 500mn tonnes (Mt) of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to achieve the industry’s goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.This can be achieved from two main sources- biomass and power-to-liquid, according to the International Air Transport Association.Biomass has the potential to produce more than 300Mt of bio-SAF annually by 2050. Some of this potential could be limited by use for competing sources. This potential could be expanded by unlocking additional feedstocks or through efficiency gains and technology improvements over intervening decades.Power-to-liquid (PtL) will be required to reach 500 Mt of SAF production annually by 2050. Maximising the volumes of cost-effective bio-SAF will reduce the pressure on e-SAF to bridge the gap.In all cases, to maximise SAF output, it will be essential to improve conversion efficiencies, accelerate technology rollout, enhance feedstock logistics, and invest in better infrastructure required to scale up commercial facilities across all regions.Recently, IATA in partnership with Worley Consulting, has published a study demonstrating that sufficient sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) feedstock exists to enable the airline industry to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050.All feedstocks considered meet stringent sustainability criteria and do not lead to changes in land use.The study also identified significant barriers in using that feedstock for SAF production, namely the slow pace of technology rollout that would enable SAF to be produced from varied sources and competition with other potential users of the same feedstock.Currently, the only commercially scaled SAF production facilities use HEFA technology, for example converting used cooking oil into SAF.Policies allocating biomass feedstock to hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation must be prioritised.According to the report, there are sufficient sustainable feedstocks and SAF production technologies to decarbonise aviation and meet the net zero carbon emissions goal by 2050.With the right policies and investments, more than 300Mt of SAF from biomass feedstocks could be produced annually by mid-century and around 200Mt from e-SAF.Enhancing the feedstock supply chain infrastructure, scaling up novel sources that meet sustainability criteria, and ensuring that the feedstocks identified for SAF production are made available to the air transport industry remain a major challenge.Other major challenges, according to IATA, are: Accelerating technology rollout to unlock new SAF production technologies, especially PtL, including reliable access to the low-cost renewable electricity, hydrogen, and carbon capture infrastructure, which are all required as part of the PtL production method.Achieving coordinated government policies to support innovation, and investment to create a fully functioning SAF market, unlocking new economic opportunities.Rallying regional leadership, with North America, Brazil, Europe, India, China, and Asean identified as key drivers of global SAF output.Activating the energy industry to invest in SAF production capacity, support technology commercialisation, and align their business strategies with global decarbonisation goals.IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh said: “We now have unequivocal evidence that if SAF production is prioritised then feedstock availability is not a barrier in the industry’s path to decarbonisation.“There is enough potential feedstock from sustainable sources to reach net zero carbon emissions in 2050. However, this will only be accomplished with a major acceleration of the SAF industry’s growth. We need shovels in the ground now.”“With this study it becomes clear that we can make SAF the solution it needs to be for aviation’s decarbonisation. The potential to turn SAF feedstock into real SAF production is in the hands of policymakers and business leaders, particularly in the energy sector.“The conclusion of this study is an urgent call to action. We have just 25 years to turn this proven potential into reality,” said Walsh.Industry analysts say hitting net-zero aviation by 2050 is huge, technically possible, but it won’t happen by accident.The industry must scale SAF fast, modernise fleets, squeeze out operational savings, build hydrogen and PtL capacity, and deploy robust policy and finance — all co-ordinated internationally and backed by strict sustainability and verification — to credibly reach net-zero by 2050.

Beyond the TarmacThe lack of adequate returns is one of the biggest barriers discouraging investment in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production globally.SAF is currently much more expensive to produce than conventional jet fuel, often 2–5 times higher depending on the feedstock and technology.Without subsidies, price support, or guaranteed demand, investors face low or negative margins, according to industry analysts.IATA’s SVP of Sustainability and Chief Economist Marie Owens Thomsen noted investment is needed to fund new SAF production facilities and other sustainability initiatives.“Certainly, money is available if investors think the returns will be there. The amount of finance available to artificial intelligence development speaks to the deep pockets that investors have if they believe in a project.“But the truth is that oil is bringing in about a 20% return while renewable energy is lagging at 5%. Bridging that gap requires the right policies and incentives from regulators.”Thomsen said: “The good news is that solar and wind power have already shown the way forward. SAF needs a similar level of investment to these now-established energy markets so regulators should be aware of the constituents of a good policy.“The blueprint for success is there,” says Thomsen. “And it all fits together because this leads back to the idea of radical collaboration. This is not about giving money to aviation, it is about investing in the energy transition. SAF is just one part of the biofuel complex that will drive advances in renewable power.”IATA says the Asia-Pacific region is aviation’s fastest-growing market and notable for its SAF production opportunities. India, Malaysia, and Vietnam are just a selection of countries in the region that could play crucial roles in SAF production.China, meanwhile, has a strong record in strategic planning and is invariably successful in implementing those plans, often before deadline. The country aims to be carbon neutral by 2060 with peak emissions occurring before 2030.A SAF pilot project in China has been extended. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC)'s 14th Five-Year Plan calls for over 20,000 tons of SAF consumption in 2025 and a Sustainable Aviation Fuel Research Centre to develop standards and a certification system has been established.It is reported that more than 3mn tonnes of SAF production is either planned or in construction.China’s ability to be a trend-setter in SAF is important as SAF will do the heavy lifting if aviation is to reach net-zero by 2050. But Thomsen emphasises that decarbonisation is not just an industry issue.Thomsen suggests that if individual industries try to find their own solution each one will fail. “But together it is possible to succeed,” she adds.“Aside from the economic implications, countries that are forward-looking in this area can achieve greater energy independence. Refineries produce a slew of products so when we talk about SAF production, it is important to remember this is a small share of refined output.“The majority of renewable refined products will benefit other industries. This means that helping airlines obtain sustainable aviation fuel will give most other industries greater access to renewable fuels.”While airlines and regulators are pushing for SAF adoption, the fact remains that the demand is still relatively small and fragmented. Investors worry that commitments may not translate into long-term offtake agreements at profitable prices.Building SAF plants requires billions in upfront investment, with long payback periods. If policy frameworks or incentives such as tax credits, blending mandates, or carbon pricing are unclear, investors may find the risk-return profile unattractive.Many SAF feedstocks (including waste oils, crops and biomass) have alternative uses — like renewable diesel, bio-based chemicals, or even food. These alternatives can offer better returns, drawing investment away from SAF, experts say.Clearly, inadequate returns discourage SAF investment, which is why many experts emphasise the need for a combination of policy incentives, carbon pricing, and long-term purchase commitments from airlines to make SAF commercially viable.