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The US-Israeli war on Iran is now in its third week and its impact on Gulf aluminium production and exports is accelerating disruption across an already fragmented physical supply chain.Two Gulf smelters are curtailing capacity, and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens ‌more output cuts.The Middle East accounts for around 9% of global aluminium production — a metal essential to construction, transport and renewable ​energy.Remove China out of the equation and that ‌ratio rises to over 20%. Take out Russia too — the reality for US and European manufacturers under sanctions over its ‌Ukraine invasion — and it rises ⁠higher still.The impact is compounded by ‌low inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME), which are about ‌to shrink a lot more as traders scramble for units.The immediate price shock from the Gulf crisis drove LME three-month aluminium to a four-year ⁠high of $3,545.50 per metric ton last week.Now, the secondary shock is travelling down the physical supply chain.Japanese buyers initially baulked when global producers offered a premium of up to $250 over the LME price for second-quarter deliveries, a 28% increase on first-quarter terms.They are now snapping up a revised offer of $350 for what serves as a benchmark for other Asian buyers.The premium for duty-paid aluminium in Europe has surged to $450 per ton over the LME cash price, its highest level since late 2022.And there's more pain for US buyers, already reeling from the impact of 50% import duties imposed last year. The Midwest premium is now trading on the CME at $2,400 per ton over the LME.While LME traders are trying ​to price the risk posed by the Gulf crisis to the global aluminium market, manufacturers have no choice but to pay inflated premiums just to guarantee they have metal.Aluminium Bahrain and Qatalum, the Qatari smelter joint venture between Norsk Hydro and Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing are powering down some 570,000 tons of annual production capacity between them.Export ‌shipments have ground to a halt due to ⁠the risks to shipping of passing ​through the Strait of Hormuz.Emirates Global Aluminium, which is still operating at full capacity, is looking to re-route shipments via ​the port of Sohar in Oman, which may offer some limited mitigation.But with no signs of de-escalation, the threat to supply is growing with each passing day because just as product can't get out, raw materials can't get in.Only Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden smelter is fully integrated with its own bauxite mine and alumina refinery. How long raw materials stocks at the Gulf's other operators last is becoming an increasingly moot point.The problem for buyers of Gulf aluminium is that there aren't a lot of alternative sources of metal to plug the widening supply gap.China is the world's largest producer, but the country's giant aluminium sector is geared towards exporting semi-manufactured products — bars, rods and tubes — rather than primary metal.It's more competitor than saviour for Western manufacturers looking to source primary metal.Moreover, China's smelter system has little spare capacity, running close to Beijing's mandated annual capacity cap of just over 45mn tons.Russian supply has already pivoted to Asia in the wake of US ‌and European sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.Indeed, ‌Russia has become a major supplier of primary aluminium to ⁠China as Chinese production growth grinds to a halt.Given these structural supply constraints, it's logical that traders have turned to the ⁠market of last resort to replace what is currently stuck the ⁠wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz.Just over 150,000 tons of LME-warranted metal has been cancelled in preparation for physical load-out since the start of this month.The action has largely played out in Malaysia's Port Klang, which is significant since this is the primary LME storage point for Indian-brand aluminium.Stocks of Russian metal at the South Korean port of Gwangyang have been left largely untouched, meaning that a significant part of what remains in the LME storage system is now metal that many Western buyers can't or won't take.Nor is there much metal left in LME off-warrant storage. These shadow stocks have ​been steadily draining away over the last year and at 108,000 tons are down by 52,000 tons since the start of 2026.The squeeze is visible in time spreads. The benchmark cash-to-three-months spread has inverted from contango to backwardation, where spot supplies command a premium over future deliveries, a classic signal of acute near-term shortage.But the current cash premium of $18 per ton is modest relative to physical market premiums, which provides little incentive for fresh deliveries from an already strained supply chain.While the rise in oil and gas pricing has understandably grabbed the headlines since the start of the war in Iran, the risks to the aluminium market are equally acute.Maybe even more so, since the Iran war is revealing just how dependent Western buyers have become on the Middle East's primary aluminium smelters.The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters 

The US has quietly built up its biggest stockpile of copper in decades, distorting flows of the red metal to the rest of the world.The influx of copper into American inventories has gathered momentum over the past year and added to upward pricing pressures. The higher prices have reverberated across the copper supply chain. Why has so much copper been flowing to the US?President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda has been looming over the copper market since his return to the White House.Fears that he would impose import duties on refined copper — the most commonly traded form of the industrial metal — pushed US prices above the global benchmark set in London in the first half of last year. New York’s premium over London was so lucrative that trading houses such as Mercuria Energy Group Ltd, Hartree Partners LP and Trafigura Group raced to bring copper to US shores.The rush of transatlantic shipments temporarily slowed after Trump unexpectedly spared refined metal from the tariffs announced in July, instead imposing a 50% duty on semi-finished copper products, such as pipes and wires, and so-called derivative products, which include electrical components.However, Trump said he’d revisit the decision in the second half of this year, renewing concerns about tariffs on commodity-grade forms of copper. The profitable New York-London price gap, which had collapsed in July, was revived and US inventories continued to swell.The country imported 1.7mn metric tonnes of copper last year, according to the US Geological Survey, almost double the volume from a year earlier. How big is the US copper stockpile?Copper held in secure, exchange-approved warehouses that back futures contracts traded on the CME’s Comex have been on a relentless upswing since early 2025. Comex inventories stood at 589,081 short tonnes (534,405 metric tonnes) as of February 6, a more than fivefold increase from a year prior and the highest level CME has recorded in data going back to 1989.If the metal held in off-exchange inventories is included, the total US copper hoard is around 1mn metric tonnes, BMO Capital Markets estimates. That’s roughly equivalent to how much the world’s biggest copper mine, Escondida in Chile, produces in a year. How has copper stockpiling in the US affected the global market?The copper inflows into the US have tightened supply available for the rest of the world, exacerbating the pressures from a series of mine disruptions stretching from Chile to Indonesia.These two dynamics, as well as speculative trading activity, have sent copper prices to records. Prices soared above $14,500 per metric tonne on the London Metal Exchange in late January, before taking a breather amid a broad metals selloff.Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc have warned that copper prices have overshot fundamentals. BNP Paribas SA strategist David Wilson said in February that the metal is “still overvalued” and levels above $11,000-11,500 a tonne are “almost entirely speculatively driven”.The elevated copper prices have taken a toll on fabricators in China — the world’s biggest copper consumers — who shape the metal into wire, tubes and foil for manufacturers and have struggled to pass on their higher feedstock costs to customers. Many Chinese copper plants are expected to take longer breaks from production over the Lunar New Year holiday as near-record prices chill industrial demand for the metal.While there’s long-term optimism about rising copper usage for renewable energy technology, electric vehicles and data centres for artificial intelligence, the soft near-term demand outlook is reflected in stockpiles at exchange warehouses in London, Shanghai and New York, which have reached their highest level since 2003. What could happen to the giant US copper stockpile?Analysts and traders initially feared that the copper accumulated in the US would flood the global market and depress prices if the refined metal escaped Trump’s tariffs.More recently, views have shifted toward a large — or even larger — stockpile enduring as companies and the government look to protect the country’s manufacturing base from scarce supply, volatile prices and overreliance on imports from China. That sentiment has been underpinned by the Trump administration’s plans to create a $12bn stockpile of critical minerals, known as “Project Vault,” via a public–private partnership.It’s unclear how much of Project Vault will be dedicated to copper, which is one of 60 minerals the US government considers to be “critical” and at high risk of supply chain disruption. Mining billionaire Robert Friedland, who was present at the Oval Office launch of Project Vault in early February, said the red metal would undoubtedly be included.“The thrust of this argument is the notion that the copper stock build we are witnessing today could be not just commercial in nature but government driven too,” BMO analysts wrote in a January report. Is there precedent for the US amassing large amounts of copper?The BMO report said that “compared with other periods in history that were witness to major geopolitical upheavals, today’s inventory still does not look so dramatic.”During the Cold War, the US stockpiled minerals to try to ensure enough supply during a multi-year conflict with the Soviet Union. It held 10 months worth of copper consumption in the early 1960s. The 1mn tonnes of the red metal currently sitting in the US is enough to meet about seven months of demand, according to BMO estimates. Is there enough warehousing space in the US for all this copper?Yes. The CME added 649,979 short tonnes of copper warehousing capacity in the US last year, taking the total to a little over 1.1mn short tonnes spread across seven states: Arizona, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Texas and Utah.Meanwhile, warehouse firms are still applying to provide additional space to store copper at CME-approved locations. Henry Bath LLC, for example, applied in January to host warehousing capacity in Cartersville, Georgia, for copper deliverable against the Comex copper futures contract. If approved, this would be a new location for the Comex-registered copper warehousing network. 

NEXX, a logistics AI (artificial intelligence) company, in association with Zipto Supply Chain, a leading Chinese cross-border E-commerce logistics provider, is expanding into Qatar market as it establishes advanced smart fulfillment center at Milaha Logistics City, Qatar, to enhance cross-border E-commerce logistics capabilities in the region.In this regard, NEXX officially announced strategic partnerships with Zipto Supply Chain and Middle East delivery leader iMile, during the Belt and Road Summit held in Hong Kong."Together with Zipto's expertise in Chinese market access and iMile's last-mile excellence, powered by our AI-driven fulfillment center, we are positioned to transform the region's logistics landscape and revolutionise service standards in this sector," said Hui Ka, Oscar, chief executive officer of NEXX.Operated jointly by NEXX, Milaha and Hong Kong E-commerce logistics company KEC, the 5,000sqm smart fulfillment center is equipped with an agentic AI management system, automated sorting robots, and pharmaceutical logistics certification.It offers end-to-end warehousing and fulfillment services tailored for cross-border B2C E-commerce customers. The center also supports B2B operations and features a bonded warehouse. It is scheduled to commence full operations in the fourth quarter of this year.On NEXX's strategic partnership with Zipto to expand into the Qatar market, this partnership will see Zipto utilise the former's advanced smart fulfillment center as its primary Qatar operational base, harnessing the facility's sophisticated automation capabilities to serve Chinese E-commerce businesses expanding into the Qatari market, with planned subsequent expansion into the UAE.In a complementary agreement, NEXX has partnered with iMile, which will establish its Qatar headquarters within NEXX's smart fulfillment center, utilising the facility's intelligent logistics infrastructure to enhance and expand its delivery services across the country through integrated technological solutions."We are pleased to support NEXX and its partners Zipto and iMile as they bring innovative logistics solutions to Qatar. Our commitment to fostering international collaboration and sustainable business growth is strengthened by these important partnerships, which will position Qatar as a central player in the region's E-commerce landscape," said Sheikh Ali Alwaleed al-Thani, chief executive officer of Invest Qatar.NEXX had recently announced a strategic investment from Rasmal Ventures — the first independent venture capital fund supported by the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA). It disclosed that Ibrahim al-Derbasti, executive vice president of Offshore and Marine at Milaha, as co-founder of NEXX Middle East.

Qatar Free Zones Authority (QFZ) and FedEx Logistics, a subsidiary of FedEx Corporation, have officially opened a new regional logistics facility at Ras Bufontas Free Zone, marking a significant step in Qatar’s emergence as a leading hub for global trade and supply chain operations.The inauguration was attended by Sheikh Mohammed bin Hamad bin Faisal al-Thani, CEO, QFZ, and Patrick Moebel, President of FedEx Logistics, alongside senior executives from both parties. The opening of the centre comes within the framework of the existing partnership between QFZ and FedEx Logistics and based on the agreement signed between them in 2024.Operated by FedEx Logistics Qatar QFZ LLC, the 1,249sq m facility features integrated warehousing, storage, and office spaces. Plugged into the FedEx global network, it will serve as a key gateway for freight forwarding and scheduling, facilitating the movement of goods between major markets in Asia, Europe, and North America.Situated next to Hamad International Airport and close to Hamad Port, the facility offers seamless access to air transportation and freight, as well as access to knowledgeable guidance on customs brokerage processes.It will provide end-to-end supply chain solutions for industries, including retail, automotive, and technology.The facility supports Qatar’s rapidly expanding logistics sector valued at $10.14bn and projected to reach $13.49bn by 2030, with the country ranked seventh globally for logistics competence in the Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index 2024.Sheikh Mohammed said: “We are proud to welcome FedEx Logistics to our thriving logistics ecosystem, home to four of the world’s top ten logistics providers.“The investment by FedEx underscores QFZ’s competitive advantages, world-class infrastructure, seamless logistics connectivity network, strategic geographical location close to the most prominent global markets, enhancing the ability of investing companies to reach large segments of consumers globally.“We are confident that this milestone will contribute to strengthening Qatar’s leadership as a global hub for innovation, logistics and international trade.”Moebel commented: “Establishing this facility in Qatar enables us to connect our Qatari and regional customers to major markets in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and North America with greater speed and efficiency.“By integrating this location into the FedEx global network, we can deliver smarter, more reliable logistics solutions that help businesses grow and compete in today’s fast-moving global economy.”By boosting freight connectivity and enabling more efficient global supply chains, the FedEx Logistics facility will contribute to sustainable growth, private sector expansion, and enhanced global competitiveness.This aligns with the goals of Qatar National Vision 2030 and advances the Third National Development Strategy (NDS3), which identifies logistics as a key pillar of economic diversification.