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Political instability in Iran, a major oil producer, together with US President Donald Trump's recent threats against the country have reignited fears of disruptions to crude supplies, sparking price volatility on global markets.AFP explains what's at stake.Major producer:Iran remains one of the world's top ten oil producers even though its output has fallen sharply since the 1970s, hit in particular by rounds of US sanctions."In 1974, Iran was the third-biggest producer in the world after the US and Saudi Arabia, and ahead of Russia, producing some 6mn barrels per day," Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, told AFP.Today, Iran produces around 3.2mn barrels per day, according to Opec.This remains a significant amount, and Iran is believed to hold the world's third-largest crude reserves, cementing its strategic importance.Additionally, Iran's oil industry is in far better shape than that of Venezuela, another country hit by years of US sanctions.Highly profitable oil:Iranian crude is relatively easy and cheap to extract, with production costs as little as $10 per barrel, making it particularly profitable, Rasmussen said.Only Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates enjoy similarly low production costs.By comparison, major Western producers like Canada and the US typically face costs of $40-60 per barrel.With such low costs, Iran gains disproportionately from high global prices, a crucial factor for an economy heavily reliant on oil revenues.Dependence on China:US sanctions imposed since the 1979 Islamic Revolution have left Iran with few export options — especially after Trump revived a "maximum pressure" policy on Tehran upon his return to the White House.Last year, Washington targeted Chinese "teapot" refineries, which operate independently of state-owned oil companies, accusing them of buying Iranian crude.China, however, continues to buy Iranian oil at below-market prices.Iran exported an average of 1.74mn barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2025, all of it bound for Chinese refineries, according to the markets data firm Kpler.Rasmussen noted that Iran produces roughly equal amounts of light and cheaper heavy crude, making it even more valuable to Beijing, which has lost access to Venezuela's very heavy crude since the US intervention in Caracas on January 3.What might Trump do?Rising tensions in Iran had pushed the international benchmark Brent crude price to $66 per barrel, its highest level since October.But oil prices tumbled after Trump said on Wednesday that the killings of protesters in Iran had been halted, easing fears of instability and potential US military action.He said the US would "watch it and see" about military strikes.If Washington were to attack Iran, "prices could quickly jump to around $80-$85", similar to the spike seen during the twelve-day conflict between Iran and Israel in June, said Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi."What happens next will depend on the nature of the attack and the regime's response," he said.Tehran has issued strong statements but responded cautiously to Trump's comments to avoid escalation with Washington.But if the government's survival is at stake, the market reaction could be far more dramatic.Falakshahi warned that the biggest risks are that "Iran targets oil facilities in other Gulf countries" or attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which 20 % of the world's oil supply flows. 

Qatar’s partnership with the UN Office for Project Services (UNOPS) is shifting aid from inputs to impact, with projects measured by outcomes, such as Gaza fuel supplies, Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) aligned finance, and education access.UN under-secretary-general and UNOPS executive director Jorge Moreira da Silva said the agency measures success by outcomes, not outputs, aligning with Qatar’s emphasis on results-based development assistance.“We are an organisation that focuses on outcomes rather than outputs. This means that we evaluate all our projects based on their impact on the people we serve. Instead of counting billions or millions of dollars, we are interested in counting the number of individuals who benefit from each project,” da Silva told *Gulf Times in an exclusive interview.Asked how UNOPS measures its success and how tools like SDG-aligned finance and impact standards change how projects are designed and assessed, da Silva emphasised that mobilising finance alone is insufficient, and stressed the need to prioritise fragile contexts where Qatar is active.“I hear lots of conversation about finance, going from billions to trillions of dollars. But we shall not confuse the need for mobilisation with the need for alignment. We need to mobilise more. Today, we are facing a $4tn gap annually to reach the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. Developing countries need additionally every year $4tn, so this is the gap,” da Silva explained.He continued, “But the issue is not just the gap, it's the misalignment. If you go through all sources of finance, blended finance, impact investment, and foreign direct investment, the support to the most fragile context has not been prioritised. Only 7% of the blended finance goes to low-income countries.“Only 10% of foreign direct investment goes to fragile contexts. So, the point is not just about mobilisation of finance, it's ensuring that we prioritise those contexts where the needs are greatest, namely conflict-affected countries, countries affected by the climate crisis, and that's why measuring impact matters.”On how UNOPS translates Qatar’s financial and diplomatic commitments into projects that deliver measurable impact, da Silva cited fuel as an example, noting that fuel supplies in Gaza illustrate how Qatar’s financial support translates into tangible outcomes, powering hospitals, schools, and bakeries, among others.Da Silva said, “Fuel is not just about fuel. In Gaza, fuel is the only way for people to have access to basic needs. In other parts of the world, people have access to energy through electricity, gas, renewable energy, and many other sources via several transmission pathways.”He further pointed out, “In Gaza, that is not possible; Gaza is totally dependent on fuel. So, without the power station functioning, without the transmission lines being activated, the only way to bring the energy to the bakeries, hospitals, schools, sewage, and desalination facilities is through fuel.“That's why we have had the chance to benefit from the financial support from Qatar. And with the Qatar financial support, we can go to the market, procure fuel, and bring the fuel to Gaza. As we distribute the fuel, we also distribute it to other UN agencies.”On transparency mechanisms, da Silva noted that UNOPS has introduced systems to ensure aid reaches beneficiaries without leakage or politicisation, including the UN 2720 Mechanism in Gaza.Da Silva also underscored the importance of infrastructure and climate change, stating that resilient infrastructure is central to achieving the SDGs, offering Qatar opportunities for deeper cooperation.According to a research piece that UNOPS has conducted with Oxford University, da Silva said “92%” of the SDGs depend on infrastructure. More than “80%” of the greenhouse gas emissions are related to infrastructure, he noted.“This means that unless we get it right – the infrastructure work – we won't deliver on the sustainable development goals and on climate action. That's why it's so important to invest in infrastructure,” he stressed.Da Silva lamented that today, there are “700mn” people without access to electricity, while another “2bn” people don’t have access to clean water. He said “2.4bn” don’t have access to sanitation, and “3bn” people worldwide are offline, lacking access to digital platforms.“It’s impossible to fix issues on education, health, energy, or water, unless we invest in infrastructure. However, investing in infrastructure can't be just about going green; it's also about resilient infrastructure. Unfortunately, the reality is that the conflict-stricken countries are, at the same time, countries facing the disproportionate impact on climate,” da Silva explained. 

Through the partnership between the Qatar Fund for Development (QFFD) and the Turkish Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), Qatar and Turkiye have dispatched a humanitarian aid vessel carrying 2,428 metric tonnes of assistance to the Sudan. In a statement on Saturday, the QFFD said the maritime shipment includes essential food supplies, clothing, and shelter materials, including tents and blankets, in addition to basic household items. The assistance aims to support the most vulnerable groups and displaced populations affected by the ongoing conflict, food insecurity, and restricted humanitarian access across Sudan.The dispatch ceremony was attended by Abdulaziz al-Hammadi, First Secretary at the Embassy of the State of Qatar in Turkiye; a delegation from the QFFD headed by Yousef al-Mulla, Acting Manager of the Humanitarian Aid Department; and Attila Toros, Governor of Mersin of the Republic of Turkiye; as well as Ali Hamza, Director of AFAD.The statement added these efforts underscore the strength of the bilateral partnership between Qatar and Turkiye in delivering timely, coordinated, and life-saving humanitarian assistance, while reinforcing collective action to address urgent humanitarian needs through a principled and cooperative approach.The QFFD continues its steadfast commitment to alleviating human suffering and supporting affected communities in times of crisis, while contributing to strengthening resilience, peace, and stability in crisis-affected regions. 

Standing in a pool of rainwater that has engulfed her tent and destroyed its contents, the Palestinian Kifah al-Najjar desperately tries to salvage what remains — blankets, mattresses, and food supplies. But the fragile shelter, built from plastic sheets, nylon, and wooden poles atop the ruins of her home in Gaza’s Al Zaytoun neighbourhood, has collapsed under the weight of the storm. With six children and no protection, al-Najjar — whose husband was killed at the start of the war — watches helplessly as her belongings are soaked and scattered. She told Qatar News Agency (QNA) that she had feared this moment long before winter arrived. The tent could not shield them from the summer heat, and now it is drowning them in the cold. The first major weather system to hit Gaza this season brought heavy rain, strong winds, and plunging temperatures, flooding hundreds of tents and worsening the plight of thousands of displaced families. Entire neighbourhoods — Al Zaytoun, Al Daraj, Al Shati Camp, Deir Al Balah, Al Bureij, and Khan Younis’s Al Mawasi — saw shelters submerged, leaving families exposed and desperate. Civil Defence spokesperson Mahmoud Basal said teams are overwhelmed, receiving constant distress calls from camps and shelters but lacking the equipment to respond. Their vehicles and tools were destroyed in the war, leaving them unable to reach those in need. **media[382041]** Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, already dire after the destruction of 92% of its residential buildings, is now compounded by the weather. Thousands of families are living in tents or unstable homes at risk of collapse. Director General of Gaza’s Government Media Office, Dr Ismail al-Thawabta, stated that the Strip urgently needs at least 250,000 tents and 100,000 caravans to provide temporary shelter. After two years of war and suffering, he said, they had hoped a ceasefire would bring relief. However, the occupation’s refusal to allow aid, food, medicine, and shelter materials has kept Gaza trapped in tragedy. As heavy rain lashes Gaza, the suffering of displaced families and residents living among the ruins of destroyed homes deepens, according to municipal spokesperson Hosni Mehanna. He stressed that over 93% of the tents sheltering displaced people are now severely worn after enduring successive seasons of heat and cold. Rainwater has pooled between camps and flooded streets, with no functioning drainage systems to redirect it. Mehanna told Qatar News Agency (QNA) that Gaza’s rainwater networks were systematically destroyed during two years of Israeli aggression, causing sewage to overflow and mix with stormwater sweeping through shelters, wreckage, and displacement camps. Despite having plans to mitigate the impact of winter storms, Gaza Municipality lacks the equipment to implement them due to the deliberate dismantling of its infrastructure, he affirmed. The crisis extends beyond shelter. Makeshift field hospitals and medical tents — set up to replace bombed-out facilities — have collapsed under the storm, halting services. Director of Medical Relief in Gaza, Dr Bassam Zaqout, confirmed that many health and social service points are tents without foundations, now rendered inoperable by the weather. Warning that the storm will have catastrophic consequences for Gaza’s displaced population, UNRWA said in a statement that families are seeking refuge wherever possible, including in temporary tents, and called for urgent permission to deliver shelter supplies already in its possession. Despite the formal end of Israeli aggression, which destroyed 92% of Gaza’s residential buildings, the blockade on essential shelter materials — such as tents and caravans — remains. This has forced families to live in unsafe, collapsing structures or deteriorated tents, risking their lives with every rainfall.

It’s a great time to be an oil refiner — but a less great time to be filling up at the pump.In Europe, the US and Asia, giant plants are making money by doing what they’ve always done: converting crude oil into vital fuels and selling them at a profit.What’s different today is the scale of the threat to global supplies: Relentless attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, outages at key plants in Asia and Africa and permanent closures across Europe and the US have removed millions of barrels of diesel and gasoline from the world market.On top of these real-world impacts are traders’ fears of what’s yet to come: imminent US sanctions on Lukoil PJSC and Rosneft PJSC and fresh European Union curbs on fuels made from Russian crude threaten already squeezed supply-chains.The result is ongoing pressure on costs at the pump despite a fall in global oil prices — something that’s unlikely to sit well with a US administration that sees “affordable energy” as essential.“Global refinery margins are astronomical,” said Eugene Lindell, head of refined products at consultancy FGE NexantECA. “The signal you’re giving the global refining system, no matter where the refinery is located, is to just run flat out.”In the US, Europe and Asia, margins are the highest they’ve been at this time of year since at least 2018, according to fair value data compiled by Bloomberg. The profits are so good that refiners’ stock prices are also surging: Processors including Valero Energy Corp and Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS have seen stellar rises, while Orlen SA gained more than 100% year-to-date.While expectations of a glut are dragging on crude prices, disruption to the global refining system is limiting how much oil can be turned into products like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. While that benefits the processors still running, it also means the slump in headline oil prices isn’t being felt at the pump.A constant stream of attacks on Russia’s refineries — just this month, Ukraine claimed strikes on the Saratov, Orsk and Volgograd plants — is hampering fuel production. Last month, Russia’s huge oil product exports were on course to hit a multi-year low, and that was before drone attacks damaged key loading facilities in the port city of Tuapse.Product supplies are being further squeezed by outages elsewhere. In Kuwait, the giant 615,000 barrel-a-day Al-Zour refinery recently had only one of its three crude processing units operating, while a key gasoline-production unit at Nigeria’s huge Dangote refinery is reportedly scheduled to halt for about 50 days of maintenance in coming weeks, having only recently begun restarting.Meanwhile, US crude runs in recent weeks have been more than a million barrels a day lower than the same time last year, a huge drop from the peak summer demand months, when processing was at its highest seasonal level since 2019. The country has seen multiple refinery closures in recent years, as has western Europe, further pressuring fuel supplies.“Global refining activity has been challenged by a series of unplanned outages in October, further constraining product markets and pushing margins even higher,” the International Energy Agency said Thursday. Increased profits have prompted the watchdog to raise its estimates for runs at margin-sensitive refining assets in Europe and Asia this month and next.In the US, the upshot is a rise in the average price of diesel since President Trump took office, and little change in the cost of gasoline, which on Thursday stood at $3.08 a gallon. Benchmark crude futures have meanwhile come off about 20% since his second inauguration, amid forecasts of a large surplus.Supercharging these ongoing real-world supply pressures are traders’ fears over what’s on the horizon.“The current strength in refining margins is at least partially being driven by uncertainty around the upcoming US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as the EU’s January prohibitions on Russian products,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group.FGE’s Lindell estimates Lukoil and Rosneft’s combined Russia oil product exports are more than 800,000 barrels a day. The global seaborne trade in oil products is about 22mn barrels a day, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd., a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker.Any major disruption to those exports would be a shock to the global fuels market, though the extent to which those barrels would really disappear is unclear. Russia has shown that it often manages to work around sanctions.There are also questions about what comes next for refineries outside Russia in which Lukoil is involved, including Bulgaria’s Burgas facility, the Netherlands’ Zeeland plant and Romania’s Petrotel.Then there are the EU restrictions, coming into force January 21, which restrict the delivery of petroleum products made from Russian crude into the bloc. Precisely how these will end up impacting Europe’s diesel supplies from India and Turkey — both of which have also been key importers of Russian crude — remains to be seen.“The sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, on top of the recent sanctions package out of the EU, tightened the noose around Russia’s neck,” said Carolyn Kissane, an associate dean at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University, where she teaches about energy and climate change. “At the same time, you’re seeing more attacks driven by Ukraine against Russian infrastructure, which is a hit to the products market.”

Iran was laying plans Saturday to cut off water supplies periodically to Tehran's 10mn-strong population as it battles its worst drought in many decades.Rainfall in the capital has this year been at its lowest level in a century, local officials say, and half of Iran's provinces have not seen a drop fall in months.Now, to save water, the government is planning water cuts in Tehran -- and several local news outlets have already reported pipes running dry overnight in some areas."This will help avoid waste even though it may cause inconvenience," Iran's Energy Minister Abbas Ali Abadi said on state television.In a speech broadcast on Friday, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian had warned that Tehran might have to be evacuated if no rain falls before the end of the year.But he gave no details about how such a vast operation would be conducted.Tehran nestles on the southern slopes of the Alborz mountains and has hot dry summers usually relieved by autumn rains and winter snowfall.Tehran is by far the country's biggest city and its inhabitants use three million cubic metres of water per day, according to local media.The main Amir Kabir dam on the Karaj river, one of five reservoirs serving the capital, is running dry and holds only 14mn cubic litres, according to Behzad Parsa, director general of the Tehran water company, cited by the official news agency IRNA.During the same period last year, the reservoir held 86mn cubic metres, he added, but now it only has enough to maintain supplies to the Tehran region for less than two weeks.Saturday, state television broadcast images of several dams, serving the central city of Isfahan and Tabriz in the northwest, showing significantly lower water levels compared to previous years.Hassan Hosseini, the deputy Iran's second-largest city Mashhad, told IRNA agency on Thursday that night-time water cuts were being considered to address the water shortage.And over the summer on July and August, two public holidays were declared in Tehran to save water and energy, at a time when power outages were almost daily during the intense heatwave.

The State of Qatar has dispatched urgent relief and humanitarian aid to the city of Al Dabbah in the Northern State of the Republic of the Sudan, as part of its firm commitment to supporting the Sudanese people, particularly amid the difficult humanitarian conditions faced by civilians, including severe food shortages and an increasing need for shelter and essential supplies.**media[376433]**The aid includes approximately 3,000 food baskets, 1,650 shelter tents, and other essential items, provided by the Qatar Fund for Development (QFFD) and Qatar Charity, to support displaced persons from the city of Al-Fashir and nearby areas.The assistance is expected to benefit more than 50,000 people and includes the establishment of a special camp for Qatari aid under the name “Qatar Al-Khair.”This initiative comes as part of Qatar’s ongoing efforts to stand by the people of Sudan and alleviate their suffering caused by the armed conflict.It also reflects Qatar’s leading humanitarian role in strengthening global response efforts and fostering solidarity with affected communities around the world.**media[376432]**

United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) spokesperson Adnan Abu Hasna said that UNRWA has been unable to bring in any of the humanitarian supplies allocated to the Gaza Strip, despite the ceasefire coming into effect days before. Abu Hasna stressed that UNRWA is the backbone of humanitarian work within the Gaza Strip and must lead the response there. He added that excluding UNRWA from humanitarian efforts in Gaza means the collapse of this process, as well as people's lack of trust in it. He explained that UNRWA employees continue to carry out their work despite the difficulties, but they have been prevented by the Israeli occupation from distributing food aid. Until now, Israel has not allowed UNRWA to bring in food and non-food aid, which is contained in 6,000 trucks waiting at the gates of the Gaza Strip. These trucks contain food supplies sufficient for the residents of the Gaza Strip for three months, he added. UNRWA also has hundreds of thousands of blankets, tents and clothes, as well as large quantities of medicine, Abu Hasna added. He stressed that these items must enter so that the agency can truly confront the harsh and dangerous conditions in the Strip, which are still deteriorating now. The war has stopped, the shooting has stopped, but unfortunately there are new aspects to this war, which is the continuation of the suffering, Abu Hasna stressed.