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For many in the developing world, Brazil is a rare beacon of hope in an otherwise bleak global landscape. Along with his South African counterpart, Cyril Ramaphosa, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is among the few world leaders who have stood up to US President Donald Trump with dignity and a measure of success.Brazil has succeeded in reversing some of Trump’s most punitive measures, despite lacking the bargaining power of countries like China. The 40% tariff he imposed on Brazilian agricultural exports, for example, was quietly rolled back without any concessions from Brazil. Likewise, the absurd US sanctions against Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who presided over the conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro, were lifted without fanfare.At a time when many governments around the world are retreating from their climate commitments, Brazil is doubling down on decarbonisation. Since returning to office, Lula has accelerated efforts to curb deforestation and announced plans to triple renewable capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030.Even in what many regard as a less ambitious third term, and despite being constrained by strong opposition in Congress, Lula’s administration has launched several important reforms. Most notably, it has simplified the Brazilian tax system and addressed some of its most regressive features, although much remains to be done to make it genuinely progressive.Lula’s industrial policy, launched in early 2024, marks a clear departure from the market-led approach that has dominated recent economic policymaking, offering in its place a mission-oriented reindustrialisation programme structured around six priority areas. Beyond strengthening agro-industrial supply chains through increased mechanisation, the programme seeks to increase the share of domestically produced drugs, vaccines, and medical equipment in national consumption, and to improve urban well-being through investment in sustainable infrastructure, sanitation, and mobility.The programme also seeks to accelerate the digitalisation of productive enterprises and boost the technological capabilities in emerging sectors, and aims to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by the end of 2026 through greater reliance on biofuels – a strategy that raises its own set of concerns.Finally, Lula’s industrial policy signals a major shift in Brazil’s national-security strategy. To boost self-sufficiency in defence production, the administration has set an ambitious target of producing half of the country’s critical defence technologies domestically.Lula plans to advance these priorities through a combination of public and private investment, including approximately R$300bn ($54bn) in government spending over three years. The reindustrialisation programme also relies on strategic public procurement to incentivise domestic production and sourcing, along with special credit lines, regulatory reforms, and changes to intellectual-property laws.On the surface, macroeconomic conditions look favourable, even amid global uncertainty and US tariff pressures. Unemployment has declined to 5.4%, inflation has fallen below 4.5%, and Brazil continues to run a trade surplus, even though the current-account deficit stands at around 2.5% of GDP. Moreover, the country has almost no foreign-currency debt.Even so, many economists remain deeply pessimistic about Brazil’s economic outlook. At a recent economic conference in Sao Paulo, few believed that the premature deindustrialisation that has marked the Brazilian economy over the past few decades could be reversed.That pessimism has far less to do with external conditions than with monetary and fiscal policy. Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, the Selic, is among the highest in the world, at 15% – and that’s merely the base rate from which other interest rates are derived. The country’s real interest rate, at 9.4%, is second only to Turkiye’s. Given how difficult it is to imagine any private investment projects being viable at such levels, it is hardly surprising that Brazil’s investment rate has remained stubbornly low, at around 18% of GDP.High interest rates persist not because they are economically rational, but because of political choices. Since the early 2000s, successive progressive governments have entered into a Faustian bargain with private banks and financial investors, tolerating exceptionally high returns in exchange for the political and financial stability needed to pursue limited progressive social policies. The fact that a significant share of Brazil’s public debt is held by non-residents, even though it is denominated in reais, further intensifies fears of capital flight.With few controls on cross-border capital flows, exchange-rate policy is often used to curb inflation by limiting import-price pressures. But the combination of high interest rates and currency appreciation also erodes the competitiveness of Brazilian firms and discourages precisely the kind of productive investment that the government’s new industrial policy intends to stimulate.High interest rates also place a heavy burden on public finances. Interest payments on debt have accounted for between one-quarter and one-third of total public expenditure over the past decade – an extraordinarily high share, particularly given that Brazil’s public debt, at around 85% of GDP, is modest by international standards. Brazil now allocates roughly 6% of GDP to servicing its debt, more than any other G20 country. By contrast, Japan, with a public debt of 252% of GDP, spends only 0.1% of GDP on interest, while even debt-stressed Argentina – whose debt amounts to 154% of GDP – pays just 2.4%.Such self-imposed constraints are not merely the result of political bargains. They also reflect the restrictions on domestic policy autonomy that come with exposure to global capital markets. In this sense, Brazil offers yet another revealing example of how financial globalisation has undermined the development objectives of middle-income countries. - Project Syndicate. Jayati Ghosh, Professor of Economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, is a member of the Club of Rome’s Transformational Economics Commission and Co-Chair of the Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation 

Alphabet Inc shares are suddenly unshackled after a long-awaited antitrust ruling removed a key risk that’s weighed on the stock for months.The decision by a US district court judge on Tuesday enabled Google’s parent to avoid the most punitive measures sought by regulators, including the sale of its Chrome browser. That sent the stock up nearly 11% over the past three days, including Friday’s 0.7% advance. The climb has put it within striking distance of a $3tn market value. With the case now out of the way, investors are turning their attention back to the potential for gains in Alphabet’s stock, which is the cheapest among the Magnificent Seven despite the recent rally.“What it does is it clears the runway for additional growth opportunities,” said Neville Javeri, senior fund manager at Allspring Global Investments, referring to the ruling. He sees an “incredible opportunity” in the stock as the decision “sets them up for a growth opportunity that might have been taken away.”The ruling caps a strong stretch for Alphabet shares that began after its second-quarter earnings showed demand for artificial intelligence products is lifting sales. At the same time, its AI offerings continue to boost investor confidence in Alphabet’s ability to fend off competition from rivals like OpenAI.The stock has gained more than 20% since the July 23 earnings report, vaulting Alphabet into the top third of performers in the Nasdaq 100 Index this year, after months of struggles amid concerns about antitrust risks and fears that AI upstarts could eat away at its Google search business, which accounts for more than half of revenue. As recently as June, Alphabet shares were down more than 10% while the Nasdaq 100 was in positive territory.Though the debate over AI is unlikely to be settled anytime soon, Wall Street is increasingly confident Alphabet can defend its turf. It debuted AI functions that were widely praised earlier this year, and the latest version of its Pixel phones, which come loaded with AI features, were also well received. Sales of handsets from both Alphabet and Samsung Electronics indicate consumers are willing to switch to devices that use Google’s Android operating system.“Given new AI Search features and GOOG’s rapidly scaling Gemini app, we expect Google will maintain its leadership in traditional search,” TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.With a market capitalisation of $2.83tn, Alphabet is roughly 6% shy of the $3tn mark, a level that’s only been reached by Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, and Nvidia Corp.Closing that gap may not be much of a stretch. Alphabet trades around 21 times estimated earnings, compared with 26 times for the Nasdaq 100, and its revenues are expected to grow 14% this year, outpacing the benchmark.“The stock still looks attractive, since it has so many high-quality businesses growing at fast rates,” said Liam McGarrity, US investment analyst at Harris Oakmark, which has Alphabet as its largest holding.Despite the improving sentiment, Alphabet’s momentum could be difficult to sustain in the near term. The stock’s 14-day relative strength index jumped above 84, its highest since 2017 and well above 70, the level where technical traders consider a security overbought. The shares are trading slightly above with average analyst price target, suggesting Wall Street doesn’t see much upside from here.Investors “understandably are relieved that near-term risks are dissipated,” but “long-term concerns about competitive risks to search will constrain the multiple,” Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett wrote in a note to clients Wednesday, reiterating his neutral rating on the stock.For McGarrity, owning Alphabet comes down to believing in its ability to stay ahead of AI rivals and maintain growth.“When you consider it is cheaper than the market even though it has industry-leading AI and significant potential in businesses like Google Cloud and Waymo, then it seems like it is trading at a significant discount,” he said.