History, form, and recent head-to-head records will all be against Qatar when they face the United Arab Emirates in a crucial Asian World Cup Qualifiers playoff at the Jassim bin Hamad Stadium Tuesday.
Despite enjoying home advantage and a six-day break between matches — compared to just three days for the UAE and Oman — the Asian champions find themselves in a must-win situation in their bid to reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup, to be co-hosted by the USA, Canada, and Mexico.
Qatar produced an underwhelming performance in their goalless draw with Oman, while the UAE came from behind to defeat the same opponents, putting them firmly in control of Group A.
A draw will be enough for the Emiratis to secure qualification, but Qatar — second only on goal difference ahead of Oman — must win to reach their second successive World Cup and the first on merit. A draw would send them into a two-legged playoff against the Group B runners-up, currently Iraq, who face Saudi Arabia Tuesday. The winner of that tie, to be held in November, will advance to an intercontinental playoff for one final chance to qualify.
In truth, Qatar have struggled throughout the qualification campaign. What’s more concerning is their recent record against the UAE — having lost both home and away encounters in the previous round. Last September, Al Annabi were beaten 1-3 at the very venue they play Tuesday, and two months later in Abu Dhabi, Brazil-born playmaker Fabio De Lima scored four goals in a 5-0 thrashing.
While past results may count for little in a decisive match like this — where a single moment of brilliance or lapse in judgement can settle matters — Qatar’s qualification record does little to inspire confidence.
Still, the 15,000-capacity crowd at the Jassim bin Hamad Stadium — with UAE fans allocated just eight percent of tickets — will be firmly behind the home side, hoping their support can make the difference.
Qatar coach Julen Lopetegui has not inspired much confidence either, with the former Spain and Real Madrid manager fielding two debutants — 20-year-old Al Gharafa defender Ayoub Aloui and 25-year-old Al Rayyan goalkeeper Mahmoud Abunada — in an important clash against Oman. That tactic did not yield the desired result, though the two new faces fared better than some of their more experienced teammates.
It will be interesting to see what lineup Lopetegui chooses Tuesday, with the odds in favour of him fielding a stronger side. Almoez Ali — who came on only in the 57th minute against Oman — is set to start, while star forward Akram Afif, who squandered Qatar’s best chance early in the second half, will also need to be at his best. Veteran Hassan al-Haydos, who returned from international retirement specifically for the play-offs, remained unused against Oman and his calming presence might make a difference Tuesday.
Ahead of the match, Lopetegui was upbeat about Qatar’s chances and said his side was ready to “make the dream a reality.” “We’ve been working for months to reach this incredible opportunity and to chase a big dream,” said Lopetegui. “Our focus is fully on the moment ahead and we’re preparing to be ready tomorrow to make that dream a reality.”
The Spaniard dismissed any notion that two recent losses against the UAE would have any psychological impact on his players. “We know we’ll be facing a very strong national team — full of quality players and led by an excellent coach — but our attention is on our own strength, on our team,” he said.
“We’re ready and looking forward to tomorrow. I believe the story of our previous matches against them is already written, but tomorrow’s story is still to be written. That’s why it’s crucial for us to compete at our best and have full confidence in ourselves. We need to trust in our team and our strengths. We must keep pushing to achieve this great dream we’ve been chasing for a long time and stay completely focused on the moment ahead,” Lopetegui added.
Meanwhile, the UAE, who are seeking to return to the FIFA World Cup for the first time since 1990, are not short on confidence. Cosmin Olaroiu’s second-half adjustments proved decisive against Oman, with substitutes Caio Canedo, Yahia Nader and Harib Abdalla making an immediate impact to spark the turnaround. The Romanian coach can be expected to tinker with his starting lineup against Qatar.
Olaroiu was not in charge when the UAE beat Qatar twice in the previous round, as he replaced Paulo Bento only in May. But under him, the UAE have looked no less lethal. Marcos Meloni and Caio Lucas scored for the Emiratis against Oman, with Ali Saleh, Nicolas Gimenez, and Fabio Lima also making crucial contributions.
Olaroiu — who guided Sharjah to AFC Champions League triumph before taking charge of the national team — urged his players to give one final push in what he described as their “last battle.”
“Tomorrow, we go from two games down to one — the final battle. We have to treat it like a final, and we hope we can achieve this dream for the UAE,” he said.
Olaroiu was not too happy with the short turnaround for his side, though he seemed to take it in his stride, insisting his players must focus on their performance. “When you play this kind of game, you find the energy everywhere,” he said.
“The players have the will and belief to play with full strength. It’s a short recovery time, but we can’t complain. We have to face it. The players want to play, so they will find the reserves to recover and to play with full energy tomorrow. I’m sure about this. They will try their best, I’m sure. They believe, always, and I expect tomorrow they will do it again.”
