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China’s growth likely rebounded in the first quarter of 2026, offering policymakers time to assess the impact of the Iran war on the world’s second-largest economy before stepping in with stimulus.Gross domestic product is expected to have expanded 4.8% from a year ago, according to the median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg ahead of the official release on Thursday. That would be an acceleration from the 4.5% gain recorded in the final quarter of 2025, which was the weakest reading since the country reopened after Covid in late 2022.The US-Israel war against Iran probably only had a limited impact on activities so far, thanks in part to China’s moves in past years to strengthen energy security and insulate its economy from global ructions. Years of deflationary pressure have also blunted the potential for an immediate impact on consumer prices from higher oil costs.But as imports of high-tech products jumped in March, driven in part by an investment boom in artificial intelligence, the goods trade surplus shrank almost 5% in the first quarter from a year ago in yuan terms. Although that could mean less support from net exports, strong global demand linked to AI is helping ward off external threats to Chinese companies at a time when the conflict in the Middle East is wreaking havoc on the world economy.A solid report would reduce the urgency for additional stimulus, especially after Beijing adopted a more flexible approach toward growth by lowering its GDP goal to a range of 4.5% to 5% — the lowest since 1991. A rising number of economists is forecasting the People’s Bank of China won’t cut interest rates this year, because the oil shock pushed up inflation expectations.“We expect policymakers to adopt a wait-and-see mode for now,” Macquarie Group Ltd economists led by Larry Hu said in a report on Friday. “China’s stimulus calculus will depend on the trajectory of the US economy and the ongoing AI boom. Both remain major tailwinds to exports, the key engine of China’s economy.”Other figures on Thursday are likely to show that imbalances between the supply and demand sides of the economy persisted.Industrial output is forecast to grow 5.3% in March from a year ago. Even though that would be a step down from the 6.3% rise seen in the January-February period, it would likely be seen as a strong result, given that factories had more days off compared with 2025 due to a later-than-usual Lunar New Year holiday.That strength is partly a result of a 15% surge in exports in the first quarter from a year ago. A boom in AI investment is driving overseas sales of high-tech items such as chips, while Chinese green products like electric vehicles continue to grab more market share abroad.Retail sales are expected to rise just 2.4% in March, weakening from the 2.8% expansion in the first two months and reflecting frail household confidence. Domestic car sales contracted almost 8% in the first quarter from a year ago, partly due to the phasing out of government subsidies.“China’s GDP growth likely poked above 5% in the first quarter, lifted by supply. Production surged in the first two months of the year. High-frequency data suggest the Iran war had only a limited impact on activity in March. Demand tells a weaker story. Consumption growth likely edged lower,” says Chang Shu and David Qu of Bloomberg Economics.The property market remained weak despite a rebound in transactions of existing homes in megacities like Shanghai. A proxy for outstanding mortgages declined more than 40% from a year ago in March — indicating people are still reluctant to take on more debt.Fixed-asset investment is forecast to increase 1.9% for the first three months of the year, an improvement from the 1.8% in the January-February period and the unprecedented contraction seen last year. Economists attribute the uptick to infrastructure projects having been delayed to early this year from late 2025.Some observers also pointed to an anomaly in the data that suggested last year’s drop might largely have been a result of temporary adjustments to statistical methods. Government bond sales, a key source of funding for construction projects, declined in the first quarter from a year ago.The International Monetary Fund slightly lowered its forecast for China’s growth this year in its latest World Economic Outlook. GDP is now expected to expand 4.4%, compared with the IMF’s estimate of 4.5% in January.Still, that’s a smaller downgrade than that for the global economy as a whole, in a scenario of a relatively short-lived conflict and moderate gain in energy prices this year. 

For years, India has ranked as the world’s fifth-largest economy, behind the US, China, Germany and Japan. Now it’s closing in on Japan, helped by its 1.4bn-strong, relatively young population and by the shrinking size of Japan’s economy in dollar terms.There’s a chance that we could get a sign as early as this week that India has overtaken Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy. India will release new gross domestic product figures using an updated framework, revisions that could increase the measured size of the economy. How is a country’s economy measured?A country’s economic size is measured primarily by its GDP — the total value of all goods and services it produces in a year.The most common way to compare GDP across countries is to look at nominal GDP. This is the measurement of the total value of goods and services produced in an economy at current prices, meaning it’s not adjusted for inflation. For international comparisons, economists convert the GDP from the local currency into US dollars using an average exchange rate over a given period, typically a year. So, how does India’s economy compare with Japan’s?Based on nominal GDP, India’s government projects the economy will reach a little more than $4tn for the fiscal year ending March 2026, compared with official data from Japan showing its economy was about $4.4tn in calendar year 2025. The IMF had earlier forecast that India would overtake Japan in the 2025-26 financial year. Why didn’t the IMF’s projections materialize?Exchange rates were a major factor.India’s currency depreciated about 5% in 2025, shaving off a significant portion of growth when converted into dollars. The yen, despite bouts of volatility, was stronger on average against the dollar than in the previous year, boosting Japan’s GDP in dollar terms.India’s economy is still expanding much faster — it’s on track for growth of more than 7% this fiscal year and next, compared with roughly 1% for Japan. But as long as global rankings are measured in dollars, currency movements could delay the crossover. How will India measure its GDP differently? Why does it matter?India would shift its GDP base year to 2022-23 from 2011-12, updating the framework used to calculate economic output. Rebasing revises the relative weights assigned to different sectors so the data better reflect how the economy has evolved over the past decade.Fast-growing areas such as the digital economy and gig work are likely to be added in the new series, while sectors such as agriculture and informal manufacturing could account for less.A similar revision in 2015 boosted India’s GDP by about $120bn and lifted the estimated growth rate for 2013-14 to 6.9% from 4.7%.The impact of the latest revision remains uncertain as updated sector weights have not yet been released. What’s driving India’s economic growth?India’s population growth has become a powerful engine for its economic surge. Its population has grown from about 361mn at independence in 1947 to more than 1.4bn today. This rapid expansion has helped swell the workforce: the median age of India’s 1.4bn people was 28 in 2021, and about 65% of the population is projected to remain under 59 through 2036, according to the statistics ministry.These younger, working-age households are driving strong consumption by spending on housing, cars, smartphones and other consumer goods.Services remain the backbone of the economy. Cities have been transformed into hubs for information technology and business process outsourcing, financial services, tourism, healthcare and retail.The government is investing record sums in infrastructure and seeking to attract foreign manufacturers by cutting red tape and offering tax breaks and production-linked subsidies. Companies including Samsung Electronics Co and Apple iPhone maker Foxconn have set up large smartphone production units in India. What would it mean for India to overtake Japan?Given its population is about 10 times larger, India surpassing Japan in overall GDP would reflect scale rather than prosperity.India’s income per person is a fraction of Japan’s — just above $3,000, compared with roughly $36,390, according to IMF estimates for 2026. By World Bank classifications, India would still rank as a lower-middle-income country.Even so, the milestone would carry symbolic and geopolitical weight. It would reinforce India’s rise as a major economic power, enhance its appeal to investors and businesses seeking alternatives to China, and give India more influence on the global stage in discussions around issues like food security and climate policy.For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it would be a boost to his ambition for India to be a leader among developing economies. Domestically, it’s another step toward his goal of making India a developed nation by 2047, the centenary of independence from British colonial rule.Yet developed status depends on living standards, not economic size. It implies high per capita income, world-class infrastructure, a well-educated and skilled workforce, plentiful quality employment, low youth joblessness and robust social safety nets. Japan meets many of those benchmarks, underscoring the gap India still needs to close. Are there other ways to compare economies?While comparing a country’s nominal GDP is the standard approach, another, albeit less widely used, method is to use purchasing power parity (PPP). This method adjusts for differences in price levels across countries. Rather than relying on market exchange rates, it compares what a similar basket of goods and services — such as food, clothing, rent, electricity and transport — costs in each country.On a PPP basis, India is already the world’s third-largest economy, a position it has held since before 2010, according to the IMF. Using that yardstick, the IMF expects India’s economy to reach about $19.14tn in 2026, compared with roughly $6.92tn for Japan.That gap reflects much lower prices in India. A kilogram of rice, for instance, costs about $0.67 in India versus $4.76 in Japan — roughly seven times as much. 

Turkiye’s economy slowed more than expected in the third quarter, providing fuel for the central bank to further cut interest rates.Gross domestic product expanded by 3.7% on an annualised basis, compared with the 4.2% expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg and 4.9% growth in the second quarter.Turkiye’s $1.5tn economy still performed better than anticipated on a quarterly basis, growing 1.1% in the three months through September, compared with 1.6% in the previous quarter, according to data announced by the national statistics agency Monday. Analysts were expecting the economy to grow 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, based on a separate Bloomberg poll.“We expect the central bank to read the overall slowdown in activity as support for its easing cycle, despite the strength over the quarter,” Bloomberg Economics’ Selva Bahar Baziki said in a note.The central bank resumed interest-rate cuts in July, after a two-month pause. In September, the bank slowed the pace of easing slightly in response to higher inflation — though still imposed a more severe cut than Wall Street expected. Some analysts are forecasting more sizeable reductions based on price data for November, which is scheduled for release on Wednesday.“While a slowdown in the pace of growth was expected, annual growth came below forecasts,” said Yasemin Basyigit, economist at Turk Ekonomi Bankasi, adding that contribution from inventory dragged down the figure. However, she added that an expected slowdown in domestic demand had not yet materialised.“We expect the central bank to preserve its tight stance,” Basyigit said.Annual inflation slowed to 32.9% in October and is seen ending the year at between 31% and 33% — above the central bank’s target — according to monetary policymakers.Central bank Governor Fatih Karahan said last week he expects an improvement in inflation readings from prior months. The monetary policy committee last lowered official borrowing costs in October to 39.5%.The International Monetary Fund said in a statement after an official staff visit last month that falling interest rates will support demand in 2026.Still “an economy operating close to full capacity” could mean inflation not falling as quickly as desired — applying brakes to the central bank as it weighs the pace of further cuts. 

Turkiye trimmed its forecasts for gross domestic product, signalling the government is prioritising price stability over rapid growth.The government’s new Medium-Term Program unveiled late Sunday sees the economy expanding 3.3% this year and 3.8% next, down from previous projections of 4% and 4.5%.The estimate for next year is above the 3.5% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists but remains well below Turkiye’s average pace of about 5% over the past two decades. That suggests the finance ministry’s focus is on lowering inflation, which is running at over six times the official target of 5%.Authorities will gradually increase the potential for growth through structural transformation while bringing inflation down to single-digit levels, Vice-President Cevdet Yilmaz said in a press conference as he presented the program.Turkiye has sustained GDP increases “without creating inflationary pressures,” he added, noting that growth has been below potential, keeping the economy from overheating.The cautious approach will likely require a gradual easing of monetary conditions by the nation’s central bank, which resumed cutting interest rates in July. Inflation is projected to finish the year at 28.5%, slowing to 16% in 2026, a sharp revision from last year’s estimates. The central bank’s August guidance estimated end-2025 inflation at a range of 25%-29%.Containing inflation without pushing the $1.4tn economy into a recession has proved to be a challenging task for Turkiye. Businesses complain that higher borrowing costs have eaten into their profits, while households still expect inflation to remain at elevated levels and continue to spend at a higher pace than expected.Turkiye’s national income is projected to exceed $1.5tn by the end of 2025 for the first time, with per-capita income rising above $17,000.The government also raised its estimated budget deficit, expecting the shortfall to be 3.6% of GDP, half of a percentage point higher than its previous projection. Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek has introduced new taxes on households and businesses to keep up with higher spending, which is partly driven by a massive reconstruction campaign in the country’s southeast after two devastating earthquakes in early 2023.Simsek said the total spending in provinces affected by 2023 earthquakes was $90bn.

Qatar's economy recorded strong growth in 2024, with gross domestic product (GDP) reaching $196bn, supported by the expansion of non-hydrocarbon sectors and an increase in foreign direct investment, which exceeded $2.7bn.This was disclosed by HE the Minister of Finance Ali bin Ahmed al-Kuwari, at a dedicated session on Qatar National Vision 2030, held as part of the Asia Leaders Conference organised by Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong.In his opening remarks, HE al-Kuwari reviewed the progress Qatar has made in implementing the National Vision 2030, emphasising that the vision serves as an ambitious national roadmap for building a diversified and sustainable economy based on knowledge and innovation.The event brought together an elite group of decision-makers, business leaders, and investors from across Asia and around the world. Affirming that Asia remains a key strategic partner for Qatar, accounting for the largest share of the country's trade, which exceeded $80bn annually; he indicated that this figure is expected to grow further in light of the ongoing North Field Expansion and the anticipated rise in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, as well as long-term partnerships secured with several Asian countries.He also highlighted that the next phase of co-operation with Asia will focus on expanding trade opportunities, strengthening public-private partnerships particularly in healthcare and tourism and boosting investment in clean energy, digital technologies, and advanced industries.

Turkiye’s economic growth remained resilient in the second quarter despite an emergency interest-rate hike by the central bank in March.Gross domestic product expanded 1.6% on a quarterly basis, up from a revised 0.7% in the preceding three-month period when adjusted for seasonality and working days, Turkiye’s statistics office said on Monday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists projected an expansion of 0.6%.The economy grew 4.8% annually, compared with the median estimate of 4.1% in the survey and a revised 2.3% in the preceding quarter. The acceleration was largely down to the higher number of working days Turkiye had this year compared to 2024, QNB Turkiye economists led by Erkin Isik said in a research note ahead of the data release.The surprise boost came after the Turkish central bank raised interest rates in an unscheduled meeting in March to mitigate the market fallout following the jailing of a prominent opposition politician, reversing a cycle of rate cuts it had just begun. Even so, domestic demand climbed at the fastest pace in more than a year, leading the surge in annual growth. The central bank resumed its cuts in July, lowering the main policy rate to 43% from 46%.Spending by households, which is the main driver of Turkiye’s economy, rose 5.1%, the highest rate since the first quarter of 2024, Turkstat said.“On the surface, Turkiye’s especially strong growth data for the second quarter could be seen as reason to derail the central bank’s easing path. But activity is likely to post slower gains ahead and we maintain our call for rate cuts at all remaining meetings this year amid falling inflation,” says Selva Bahar Baziki, economist, Bloomberg Economics.“Today’s figures provide worrying evidence that domestic demand is too strong, which may prevent the current account deficit from narrowing further and inflation from falling as quickly as policymakers want,” Capital Economics’ chief emerging markets economist William Jackson said in a note. Though August inflation figures, which will be released on Wednesday, will give a better sense of that, Monday’s GDP report suggests the central bank “will not lower interest rates as quickly as we currently expect,” he said. Jackson currently sees the main policy rate reduced to 37% at the end of the year.Gross fixed capital formation, a measure of investments by businesses, soared by nearly 9% in the second quarter from a year earlier, while exports of goods and services increased by 1.7% from a year earlier, and up from 0.1% the prior quarter.The lira was little changed after the data release, trading 0.1% higher at 41.1182 per the US dollar at 10.57am in Istanbul.Monday’s release marks the first time Turkstat published revised growth data, which the agency said was carried out for better compliance with international peers.

Turkiye’s economic growth remained resilient in the second quarter despite an emergency interest-rate hike by the central bank in March.Gross domestic product expanded 1.6% on a quarterly basis, up from a revised 0.7% in the preceding three-month period when adjusted for seasonality and working days, Turkiye’s statistics office said on Monday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists projected an expansion of 0.6%.The economy grew 4.8% annually, compared with the median estimate of 4.1% in the survey and a revised 2.3% in the preceding quarter. The acceleration was largely down to the higher number of working days Turkiye had this year compared to 2024, QNB Turkiye economists led by Erkin Isik said in a research note ahead of the data release.The surprise boost came after the Turkish central bank raised interest rates in an unscheduled meeting in March to mitigate the market fallout following the jailing of a prominent opposition politician, reversing a cycle of rate cuts it had just begun. Even so, domestic demand climbed at the fastest pace in more than a year, leading the surge in annual growth. The central bank resumed its cuts in July, lowering the main policy rate to 43% from 46%.Spending by households, which is the main driver of Turkiye’s economy, rose 5.1%, the highest rate since the first quarter of 2024, Turkstat said.“On the surface, Turkiye’s especially strong growth data for the second quarter could be seen as reason to derail the central bank’s easing path. But activity is likely to post slower gains ahead and we maintain our call for rate cuts at all remaining meetings this year amid falling inflation,” says Selva Bahar Baziki, economist, Bloomberg Economics.“Today’s figures provide worrying evidence that domestic demand is too strong, which may prevent the current account deficit from narrowing further and inflation from falling as quickly as policymakers want,” Capital Economics’ chief emerging markets economist William Jackson said in a note. Though August inflation figures, which will be released on Wednesday, will give a better sense of that, Monday’s GDP report suggests the central bank “will not lower interest rates as quickly as we currently expect,” he said. Jackson currently sees the main policy rate reduced to 37% at the end of the year.Gross fixed capital formation, a measure of investments by businesses, soared by nearly 9% in the second quarter from a year earlier, while exports of goods and services increased by 1.7% from a year earlier, and up from 0.1% the prior quarter.The lira was little changed after the data release, trading 0.1% higher at 41.1182 per the US dollar at 10.57am in Istanbul.Monday’s release marks the first time Turkstat published revised growth data, which the agency said was carried out for better compliance with international peers.