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Brent projected to average $61.27 per barrel in 2026WTI to average $58.15 per barrel in 2026Poll was conducted before US-strikes on Venezuela and Opec meetingThe global oil market is ‌likely to be under pressure in 2026 as growing supply and weak ‌demand curb prices, and traders monitor ‍OPEC+ for policy signals and any attempts to bolster the market, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.The ⁠survey of 34 economists and analysts ⁠conducted in December forecast that Brent crude would average $61.27 per barrel in 2026, down from November's ‍forecast of $62.23. US crude is projected to average $58.15 per barrel, below November's estimate of $59.00.The poll was conducted in December 2025, prior to the US military operation that launched strikes on OPEC-member Venezuela and captured its President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend.The poll also preceded a meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as Opec+, at the weekend. It left oil output unchanged on Sunday after ‌a quick meeting that avoided discussion of the political crises affecting several of the producer group's members, not just Venezuela."Holding production steady through Q1 2026 ‍helps limit near-term volatility and provides ⁠some support to prices, ‌but it does not materially alter the underlying surplus. Even with quotas unchanged, supply is expected to exceed demand, keeping prices under pressure through the year," said Bridget Payne, Head of Energy Forecasting at Oxford Economics.Brent and WTI prices declined by about 19% and 20% respectively in 2025, the most since 2020, weighed down by production boosts from Opec+, the US and other producers.Following the weekend's events in Venezuela, crude output in the country, home of the biggest global oil reserves, could gradually increase, oil analysts said, but it will take time."We see ambiguous but modest risks to oil prices in the short run from Venezuela ​depending on how US sanctions ‌policy evolves," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note dated January 4.On average, the poll participants expect the market to ⁠be in surplus by around 0.5-3.5mn ‍barrels per day in 2026, compared with a 0.5-4.2mn bpd surplus in the previous poll.Opec data published in its most recent monthly report found world oil supply would match demand closely in 2026, an outlook contrasting with projections of a substantial supply surplus from the International Energy Agency.The highest forecast in the poll is from analysts at DBS Bank, ​who expect Brent crude to average $68 next year, as an Opec+ pause and possible new sanctions on Russia could support prices. ABN Amro and Capital Economics have the lowest Brent crude price forecast for 2026 at $55 per barrel, as per the poll.The US has tightened sanctions on Russia's oil trade, targeting tankers and supply routes to curb revenues, but analysts expect US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil to be short-lived, given US President Donald Trump's push for low gasoline prices.Analysts noted that these sanctions are unlikely to impact the ⁠market, as Opec+'s substantial production increase in 2025 has already ensured ample global supply. 

The global oil market faces an even bigger surplus next year of as much as 4.09mn barrels per day as Opec+ producers and rivals lift output and demand growth slows, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.The outlook from the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, is the latest warning that the oil market is heading for oversupply. A surplus of 4.09mn bpd would be equal to almost 4% of world demand, and is much larger than other analysts’ predictions.“Global oil market balances are looking increasingly lopsided, as world oil supply is forging ahead while oil demand growth remains modest by historical standards,” the IEA said in its monthly report.Opec+, or the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, has been boosting output since April. Other producers, such as the US and Brazil, are also increasing supply, adding to glut fears and weighing on prices.Oil prices edged higher to around $63 a barrel after the IEA report to recoup some of the 2% drop on Wednesday after Opec shifted its 2026 outlook to a small surplus, having earlier seen a sizeable deficit.Global oil supply will grow by around 3.1mn bpd in 2025, and 2.5mn bpd next year, each up by around 100,000 bpd on the month, the IEA said.Supply is rising faster than demand in the IEA’s view even after upward revisions on Thursday. The agency now expects oil demand to rise by 770,000 bpd next year, up 70,000 bpd from last month, citing increased needs in petrochemical plants.The short-term outlook in the IEA’s monthly report contrasts with the agency’s annual outlook on Wednesday, which sees global oil and gas demand potentially rising until 2050.Opec sees a surplus of just 20,000 bpd next year according to Reuters calculations based on its own monthly oil market report on Wednesday, although this marks a further retreat from its forecast of a sizeable deficit.Global oil output was 6.2mn bpd higher in October than at the start of this year, divided evenly between Opec+ and non-Opec producers, the IEA said. Top Opec producer Saudi Arabia contributed 1.5mn bpd of the increase, while Russia added just 120,000 bpd amid sanctions and Ukrainian attacks.Russian oil exports have continued largely unabated despite new US sanctions on Russian firms Rosneft and Lukoil, which still may have the most far-reaching impact yet on global oil markets, the IEA said.The IEA added that new entities have already started handling Russian exports as it adapts to sanctions. In October, companies MorExport, RusExport and NNK, which have only been active since May, lifted around 1mn bpd of Russian crude and fuels, it said.The Paris-based IEA also drew attention to a sharp rise in global oil inventories, which rose to their highest since July 2021 in September at just under 8bn barrels.The increase was driven by a sharp increase in waterborne oil in storage, which rose by 80mn barrels in September.Preliminary October data shows further rises for global stocks, again driven by increasing waterborne barrels, the agency added.