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The Gulf is fast emerging as part of China’s next big financial play, with years of diplomatic overtures now translating into hard cash.Chinese banks’ lending to the region jumped nearly three-fold to a record $15.7bn in 2025, excluding bilateral loans, with the bulk going into Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. In contrast, banks from the US, UK and eurozone together provided only about $4.6bn to the Gulf last year, the data showed.China’s appetite extends beyond loans. Already this year, Saudi Arabia raised $11.5bn through a dollar bond sale, with major Chinese banks among bookrunners for the deal.In another measure of the deepening ties, the chairman of a major Chinese bank made a rare visit to Riyadh, Dubai and Abu Dhabi last year, while another senior executive travelled to the Gulf three times in 2025 — a first in their career, according to people familiar with those trips. Both had one goal in mind: to capture financing opportunities fuelled by deepening ties and rising capital flows between China and the Middle East.This strengthening of relations reflect both geopolitics and economics. As competition with the US intensifies, Chinese banks are diversifying away from American markets, while supporting domestic companies expanding into the Gulf — a region rich in oil and wealth.For Saudi Arabia, this liquidity will help fund its $2tn economic transformation plan at a time when low oil prices have pushed the kingdom’s budget into deficit. The UAE, meanwhile, is channelling funds into infrastructure as it positions itself as a global hub for artificial intelligence.“It’s an incredible marriage of convenience,” said Vasuki Shastry, a Dubai-based senior adviser at geopolitical risk firm Gatehouse Advisory Partners. “The Gulf countries are eager to learn from China and at the same time, they want access to capital.”Still, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are likely to remain cautious about opening sensitive sectors — particularly artificial intelligence and defence — to Chinese banks, wary of straining ties with Washington that have enabled them to make progress on both fronts. Last year, the US approved the sale of advanced AI semiconductor chips to both countries, bolstering their high-tech ambitions, while also authorising an estimated $3.5bn weapons deal for Saudi Arabia.The UAE and Saudi Arabia are also among countries that have made hundreds of billions of dollars in investment pledges to the US, though questions have been raised about those commitments.China is growing its financial footprint during an era of disruption in global trade as the tariff war started by US President Donald Trump reshapes commerce. Just as the world’s biggest manufacturing nation has started to export more to the Gulf, it’s also ramped up purchases of oil after Saudi Arabia cut prices to their lowest in five years.In 2024, China overtook the West as the Gulf’s largest trading partner, with volumes hitting $257bn — a historic milestone, according to a November report from think tank, Asia House. That figure could rise to $375bn in 2028, the report said.Gulf borrowers are also increasingly seeking financing in Chinese yuan to facilitate trade. Last year, the government of one of the emirates that make up the UAE secured its first-ever 1.78bn yuan ($255mn) syndicated loan, according to people familiar with the matter. Saudi National Bank and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co are also considering so-called dim sum bonds, while Arab Energy Fund plans to raise panda notes of as much as 10bn yuan.Dim sum and panda bonds are both denominated in Chinese yuan. The former is issued offshore to international investors, while the latter is launched within China by foreign entities, primarily targeting the domestic market.These developments have prompted repeated trips by Chinese bankers to strengthen co-operation with regional counterparts, according to at least half a dozen bankers who spoke to Bloomberg News on the condition of anonymity. These visits are also driven by their need to drum up more business overseas to offset strains at home, where a prolonged property crisis has weighed on the financial industry, they said.At the same time, Chinese lenders are following their clients into the Gulf. Solar firms such as Jinko Solar Co and TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology Co are planning manufacturing plants in Saudi Arabia, with more set to follow — creating fresh demand for financing.The growing trade relationship between China and the Gulf, coupled with a rise in Chinese firms setting up factories in the region “gives the ties more substance,” said Simon Williams, chief economist for Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa at HSBC Holdings Plc.Against that backdrop, Gulf borrowers offer what Chinese banks need: investment-grade deals with relatively low risk but higher yields than comparable Asian credits.Recent examples include Riyad Bank SJSC, which closed a five-year loan offering a margin of 90 basis points over the benchmark Secured Overnight Financing Rate. In contrast, South Korea’s Shinhan Card is paying just 80 basis points on its recent five-year facility. The former entity is rated A1 by Moody’s Ratings and A by S&P Global Ratings, while the latter is rated A2 and A-, respectively. 

Eurozone inflation slowed to 2% last month, capping a surprisingly benign year price-wise for ‌the currency bloc, even as questions linger about the delayed impact of US tariffs, ‌German stimulus and geopolitical stresses.The eurozone withstood unexpected turbulence from trade tensions, disappearing export markets and Chinese dumping last year, while domestic consumption finally kicked into gear and lower ⁠interest rates offered some relief.But this resilience ⁠is unlikely to give way to a boom, especially since deeply rooted structural rigidities keep holding back growth ‍and governments lack appetite for political compromise needed for deeper integration.Still, taming inflation is a clear victory for a bloc of 350mn people as price growth eased to 2.0% last month, in line with expectation, and was likely to hold near this level for years to come.A more important figure on underlying prices, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also eased to 2.3% from 2.4% on a modest slowdown in services and industrial goods inflation.The figures confirm economists' ‌central narrative that the eurozone is entering 2026 on a solid footing even as it faces exceptional uncertainty.US tariffs have not yet fully fed through to prices and firms are still adjusting their value chains, suggesting that ‍it could take much of 2026 for ⁠the picture to clear ‌up."We are very conscious that the impact of the current tariff levels is still feeding through in the data and that US trade policy may still change, for example due to a Supreme Court ruling on the IEEPA tariffs or because of US discontent about the existing deal," JPMorgan said in a note to clients.Another issue is German fiscal stimulus. The government is boosting spending on defence and infrastructure and economists widely expect a boost to growth, but the start of the spending splurge is slow and it could still take time before it shows up in the numbers.For now, the eurozone's biggest economy continues to skirt recession and its labour market is in the weakest shape in years.Deutsche Bank expects a fiscal impulse ​worth 1.4% of GDP this year, boosting ‌growth across Europe."The spillover benefits to the rest of the eurozone are a function of the composition of German fiscal spending, the degree of ⁠spare capacity in Germany and economic confidence outside ‍Germany," it said in note.Cheaper energy is also a boost since it reduces costs and improves the bloc's terms of trade given Europe's massive reliance on fossil fuel imports.Still, overall economic growth could slow to around 1.2% this year from 1.4% in 2025, as the bloc is also facing a drag on multiple fronts.Tariffs will keep on eating into exports, while China will continue to crowd out Europe from some of ​its key export markets. Industry keeps skirting recession on high costs, but the eurozone remains far too fragmented to produce at the sort of scale needed to compete globally.The ECB, which supported the economy over the past two years with a steady stream of rate cuts, is also unlikely to do more.Inflation is at target and dips below 2% are likely to be temporary, leaving the outlook rather balanced, especially in the medium term — the bank's relevant horizon.This is why financial markets expect unchanged rates at each of the ECB's eight meeting this year and see some policy tightening next year."We expect rates to ⁠remain stable this year and continue to think further easing would require significant downside surprises, either on the growth or inflation front," Leo Barincou at Oxford Economics said. 

Eurozone inflation ‌slowed as expected last month, ‍hitting the European Central Bank's 2% target before likely moving lower in the ⁠coming months as falling energy costs ⁠offset lingering domestic price pressures, Eurostat data showed on Wednesday.Inflation in the ‍currency bloc slowed to 2.0% in December from 2.1% a month earlier, in line with expectation for 2.0% in a Reuters poll of economists, as energy prices continued to pull down overall price growth, offsetting a pick up in food inflation.A more crucial figure on underlying prices, which exclude volatile food and ‌energy costs, meanwhile eased to 2.3% from 2.4% on a modest slowdown in services and industrial goods inflation.Price growth has hovered on either side ‍of the ECB's 2% target ⁠for most of ‌2025 and the bank sees it near this level for years to come, even if most of this year and next could be spent below target.While some policymakers have expressed concern that low readings could perpetuate anaemic inflation by deflating wage demands, most appear to have taken a relaxed view, arguing that the dip is temporary and mostly caused by energy volatility.Indeed, the ECB last month signalled it was in no hurry to adjust policy any further, cementing market ​expectations that it would keep ‌its 2% deposit rate steady through all of 2026.Still, figures going deeply under 2% ⁠could reignite the debate over ‍easing, but only if they raise the prospect of persistent undershooting, since monetary policy works with long lags and would do little in the near term.In any debate, the ECB will need to reconcile a host of forces that will tug inflation in opposing ​directions.Falling energy costs, a strong euro, surging Chinese imports and moderating wage demands could all pull prices lower.But increased defence spending, Germany's fiscal splurge, a tight labour market, healthy domestic demand, and geopolitical stress could push prices up.These forces make projections especially uncertain and will likely prevent the ECB from giving any guidance beyond the short term, suggesting that rate cuts will not be taken ⁠off the table, even if more easing cannot be ruled out.The ECB will next meet on February 5. 

Eurozone factory activity expanded for the first time since mid-2022 as domestic demand offset the impact from US tariffs while the Asian manufacturing sector saw shrinkage, private surveys showed Monday.There were mixed signals over the Chinese economy, however, as one such survey unexpectedly indicated modest expansion, contradicting an official readout the day before which showed activity continuing to shrink. Export powerhouses Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all saw manufacturing activity shrink in August, underscoring the challenge Asia faces in weathering the hit from sharply higher trade barriers erected by US President Donald Trump. In Europe, Greece and Spain led factory growth while manufacturing in Germany, the bloc's largest economy, shrank albeit at a slower pace.The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to an over-three-year high of 50.7 in August from 49.8 in July, surpassing the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction."The recovery is real but remains fragile. Inventory levels continue to decline, and the slightly accelerated drop in order backlogs shows that companies are still suffering from uncertainty," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. "Domestic orders have risen and are offsetting the weakening demand from abroad. In fact, the best remedy against US tariffs may be to strengthen domestic demand."Meanwhile, manufacturing in Germany rose to a 38-month high of 49.8, a whisker away from the 50 mark, offering hope for the economy that shrank 0.3% last quarter on slowing demand from its top trading partner the US.The EU and the US struck a framework trade deal in late July but only the baseline tariff of 15% has so far been implemented. In Britain, outside the European Union, factory activity suffered a fresh setback in August after signs of a recovery due to worries about trade tensions and tax increases at home.The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49.7 in August, improving from 48.9 in July but staying below the 50 threshold for two straight months.South Korea's factory activity also shrank with the S&P Global PMI standing at 48.3 in August, up from 48.0 in July but contracting for the seventh straight month.Both countries struck a trade deal with the US that eased, but not removed, the pressure on their export-reliant economies."It's a double-whammy for Asian economies, as they face higher US tariffs and competition from cheap Chinese exports," said Toru Nishihama, chief emerging market economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "We'll likely see the hit from US tariffs intensify going forward, with countries reliant on U.S.-bound shipments like Thailand and South Korea particularly vulnerable," he said.However, the RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, unexpectedly rose to 50.5 in August from 49.5 in July, exceeding the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. The reading confounds an official survey on Sunday that showed activity shrank for a fifth straight month on weak domestic demand and uncertainty over the outcome of Beijing's trade deal with the USHalf-way through the month Trump extended his tariff truce with China for another 90 days, withholding imposition of three-digit duties until November 10.Meanwhile, India, which grew at a much better-than-expected 7.8% in the last quarter, continued to be a significant outlier in the region. Manufacturing activity in Asia's third-largest economy expanded at its fastest pace in more than 17 years in August.But the Trump administration's steep 50% tariff on US imports of Indian goods like garments, gems and jewellery threatens to dampen growth in the coming quarters.

European stocks edged lower on Friday as investors awaited key eurozone indicators and a US inflation report for signals on the timing of potential US interest rate cuts.The pan-european stock index slipped 0.2% to 552.41 points, putting it on track for its first weekly loss in a month.Markets broadly expect the US Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in September, with traders closely monitoring upcoming economic data for confirmation of that outlook.