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Saudi Aramco’s chief executive officer warned the impact on global oil markets will be “catastrophic” the longer the disruption from the Iran war drags on.In his first public comments since the conflict choked Middle East energy shipments, the head of the region’s largest oil producer said Aramco can divert more crude to an alternative route that avoids the Strait of Hormuz. Still the company can’t export its normal quantities because of capacity constraints.Saudi Arabia is reducing output by as much as 2.5mn barrels a day, joining United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait in deepening cuts, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.CEO Amin Nasser declined to disclose production levels, but said on a conference call that Aramco was “not utilizing for the time being” some of its heavier oil grades.“There would be catastrophic consequences for the world’s oil market the longer the disruption goes on, and the more drastic the consequences for the global economy,” Nasser said. “While we have faced disruptions in the past, this one by far is the biggest crisis the region’s oil and gas industry has faced.”Aramco is racing to divert oil from its usual route through Hormuz toward Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. It can pump as much as 7mn barrels a day through a pipeline to the west, and will ramp up to that level in coming days, Nasser said. About 2mn barrels a day of that will go to domestic refineries dotting the Red Sea coast. The company is still exporting refined products like diesel from its western refineries, he said.Aramco normally exports about 7mn barrels a day of oil. Most of the current exports through the East-West pipeline are its most plentiful Arab Light grade, and some Extra Light, Nasser said.“So certain areas where we have Medium and Heavy we are not utilizing for the time being because we have adequate capacity to meet our requirements,” he said. The company is using its global network, including storage sites outside the kingdom, to meet market needs, he said.Aramco has also been forced to shut down Saudi Arabia’s biggest oil refinery following a drone strike, which it’s working to restart, Nasser said. Some other oil fields have been targeted, according to Saudi government statements. 

With the regional political turbulence continuing for more than a week, Qatar’s food security strategy has shown great resilience with no disruption for major food items in the country. This proves that the Qatar National Food Security Strategy 2030 is well aligned with the country’s preparedness and is paying great rewards especially during the crisis. The supermarkets in the country are well stocked and there has been no disruption so far in the essential provisions. Except for the panic buying on the first few hours on the day the tensions broke out, the supermarkets have seen no rush and almost all the food items are well supplied in the country. The Ministry of Commerce and Industries in a statement a few days back said: “The industrial sector includes more than 138 national food manufacturing plants, producing a diverse range of high-quality products and operating at full capacity to ensure that the needs of the local market are met.” These plants include 20 water production companies, 24 dairy product companies, 16 meat and fish processing companies, 15 bakery and pasta producing factories, and 10 packaging and milling factories. In addition, there are nine vegetable factories, nine juice factories, nine edible oil factories, seven food industries and ready-made meal factories five biscuits and confectionary factories, five date processing factories, five coffee and nut processing factories, and four spice and sauce factories, as well as two sugar factories - all of which are operating in full swing across the country. Hamad Hadi al-Hajri, assistant director of Food Security Department, at the Ministry of Municipality told Gulf Times in an earlier interview that the Qatar National Food Security Strategy 2030 was visualised with the aim of ensuring sustainable food access and maintaining a strategic reserve of essential food items for two to eight months. He said: “We are establishing a strategic reserve of select commodities so that we can cater for the needs of the community. The strategic reserve has been designed very carefully so that we can have enough supply that can cover for a specific period.”  According to al-Hajri, the Qatar National Food Security Strategy 2030 is based on 17 initiatives across three pillars. The three pillars are domestic production and markets, strategic storage reserve and alert system, and international trade and investment. “We have the basic commodity basket which includes wheat, rice, sugar, edible oils and other stuff. The storage range for them is between two to eight months, depending on the commodity, as this can serve as an insurance against supply chain shocks. We are also enhancing the scope of the strategic reserve,” al-Hajri had stated. Al-Hajri also said the main objective of the reserve is make sure that the food supply chain is not affected due to any external reasons. The current scenario truly reflects his views as Qatar so far is not affected by the escalating tensions in the region. “We know that we live in a very dynamic world and environment. There can be situations such as geopolitical tensions, biosecurity issues, disruption in the supply chain in the market that could affect the food system. We are making sure that the food supply chain can sustain with the strategic storage”. The basic idea within the strategy is whatever we can store that has an extended shelf life, we will create a reserve,” he underlined. He added: “The strategy is to continue the efforts that we have done in the past and build upon all those initiatives. We have made a huge improvement in the local production, establishing reserve stock for basic commodities and diversifying trade and investment.” 

Fears of deeper disruption to global oil and natural gas supply are growing as the US and Israel continue to strike Iran, and the Islamic Republic retaliates with missiles and drones across the Middle East. Prices of both commodities have jumped and a sustained increase could trigger a surge in inflation.Some oil and gas production has already been interrupted as major energy infrastructure is caught in the cross-hairs of the conflict. QatarEnergy halted activity at the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export facility after it was targeted in an Iranian drone attack. More significantly, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway that handles around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and a fifth of LNG supply — has come to a near standstill.**media[423241]**What’s at stake for the oil market?Expectations in the global oil market have shifted from a glut of barrels to concerns about their availability. The Strait of Hormuz is the entry to the Arabian Gulf and a chokepoint for the bulk of oil exports from the Gulf States. Almost 90% of the crude and condensate transported through the waterway last year went to Asia.A senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps told state television that Iranian forces “won’t allow a single drop of oil to leave the region.” Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and to a lesser extent Iraq have some ability to reroute their crude via pipelines that avoid Hormuz. Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain have to ship their oil through the waterway.**media[423242]**Oil prices could rise to “well over” $100 a barrel if tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz aren’t restored quickly, analysts at Wood Mackenzie estimate. The last time Brent crude, the international benchmark, reached those levels was in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In the days after the US and Israel launched their strikes on Iran, Brent topped $80 a barrel — still some way off the energy crisis high from four years ago.A prolonged pause in Hormuz transits could result in major oil producers in the region hitting the limits of what they can store in onshore tanks and vessels at sea, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. That constraint is already being felt in Iraq.**media[423243]**Opec’s second-biggest producer has begun halting operations at its biggest oil fields as storage tanks fill up, according to people familiar with the operations. As a precautionary measure amid the widening conflict, it’s also suspended exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey, people with direct knowledge of the situation said.One of the Middle East’s largest oil storage and trading centers, Fujairah in the UAE, suffered a major fire caused by falling debris from an intercepted drone. Located along the Gulf of Oman, Fujairah is at one end of a pipeline that connects to the UAE’s oil fields and allows shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Fujairah is also a critical bunkering port for ships to refuel. Are there impacts for oil beyond crude?The supply of refined petroleum products is also under threat. Operations were suspended at Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery, Aramco’s Ras Tanura plant, following an Iranian drone strike in the area.Prices of diesel, gasoline, jet fuel and naphtha — used to make plastics and road fuel — have all increased. Higher prices at the pump could add to domestic pressures for US President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, as affordability is set to be a key issue in the midterm elections later this year. Gasoline prices are one of the most visible signs of inflation. How is the Iran conflict affecting the gas market?The market is at risk of its biggest shock since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine upended global gas trade and sent Europe rushing to find alternative sources. Gas futures in Europe nearly doubled in the days after the Iran conflict began, hitting their highest levels since 2023.The Middle East is a significant supplier of LNG due to Qatar, which was the world’s second-largest producer last year after the US.Most of the LNG exported from the Middle East is purchased by countries in Asia. If those buyers are unable to source cargoes from the Middle East — whether it’s due to shipping disruptions or production outages — it will increase competition for LNG produced elsewhere and push up prices worldwide.That would be bad news for Europe. While the continent is nearing the end of winter and so has less need for fuel for heating, it’s exiting the season with unusually low gas inventories. Europe therefore needs to import large volumes of LNG to replenish its gas storage — a task that will be more expensive if there’s greater competition from Asia.Egypt is also on the hunt for more LNG after Israel, from whom it receives pipeline supply, temporarily shuttered some gas fields as a precaution against Iranian attacks. Turkey’s demand for LNG could increase as well, in the event that pipeline gas exports from Iran are interrupted.US LNG producers could benefit from the disruption in the Middle East but the gains will likely be limited as their export terminals are already operating near full capacity. New LNG facilities set to start this year can only partially replace lost supplies gas, so some consumers may have to cut their usage or find substitutes — if they can. How important is Iran to global energy markets?Oil exports remain a central pillar of Iran’s economy, despite years of the country trying to diversify its growth drivers. But Iran’s influence in the global oil market has waned due to prolonged international sanctions, limited foreign investment and aging infrastructure. While it’s the fourth-largest producer in Opec, it only churns out around 3mn barrels of crude a day, equivalent to 3% of the world’s output.Around 90% of the country’s oil exports go to China, largely to independent refiners, who are willing to buy the sanctioned crude at a steep discount. Other countries that have continued to purchase Iranian cargoes include Syria. What are Iran’s key energy assets?Iran’s oil export operations are highly vulnerable as they’re concentrated at the Kharg Island terminal in the northern Arabian Gulf. In the weeks before the US and Israeli strikes began, Iran increased loadings of oil tankers at this facility, likely in an attempt to get as much crude on the water and out of harm’s way from a potential attack.The country’s largest oil deposits are the Ahvaz, Marun and West Karun oil fields, all of which are located in Khuzestan province at the northern end of the Gulf, bordering Iraq. Iran’s main refinery, Abadan, is in the same region and can process more than 500,000 barrels of oil a day. Other key plants include the Bandar Abbas and Gulf Star refineries, which are closer to the Strait of Hormuz, and a refinery in the country’s capital, Tehran.Iran’s main natural gas fields are along the south of Arabian Gulf coast. Facilities at Assaluyeh and Bandar Abbas process, transport and ship gas and condensate for domestic use in power generation, heating, petrochemical production and other industries. 

Iran's ongoing conflict with the US and Israel has led to sporting events being postponed in several countries, while competitions elsewhere have been hit by travel disruption, with thousands of flights cancelled in some of the ‌world's busiest transit hubs. ATHLETES' ARRIVALS AT PARALYMPIC GAMES DISRUPTEDThe International Paralympic Committee (IPC) said it ​is working to find solutions ‌after several athletes were finding it difficult to travel to the Milano Cortina Winter ‌Paralympic Games due ⁠to travel disruptions in ‌several Middle Eastern airports. "The closure of airspace ‌in the Middle East is impacting the arrival of some stakeholders... we are working diligently with Milano ⁠Cortina 2026 to find solutions for those affected," the IPC said. TENNIS IN UAE HALTED DUE TO SECURITY ALERTPlay in the Fujairah Challenger event was halted abruptly due to a security alert yesterady, before being cancelled for the remainder of the day. Authorities in Fujairah extinguished a fire caused by debris following the interception of a drone by air defences in the oil industry zone. Football MATCHES IN IRAN AND QATAR POSTPONED​All sporting events in Iran have been cancelled until further notice, including the country's top-flight Persian Gulf Pro League. All Asian Champions League Elite matches in the Middle East were also postponed. ‌The Qatar Football Association indefinitely postponed ⁠all football matches in ​the country, putting in doubt a clash between Spain and Argentina set for ​Doha on March 27. TENNIS PLAYERS MEDVEDEV, RUBLEV STUCK IN DUBAIRussian players Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev, who participated in the Dubai Tennis Championships last week, are facing challenges to reach California for the Indian Wells Open. They are among players facing travel difficulties, and the ATP is monitoring the situation. ENGLAND LIONS RETURN FROM ABU DHABIThe England Lions cricket team left Abu Dhabi and are now safely back in the UK, the country's cricket board (ECB) said. The squad were in the United Arab Emirates for a white-ball series against Pakistan Shaheens before it was called off due to the conflict. Pakistan's cricket board said it was ensuring appropriate measures ‌were in place to bring its ‌team home. MIDDLE EASTERN F1 RACES HANG IN ⁠THE BALANCEMohammed Ben Sulayem, who heads the global motorsport governing body FIA, said safety will be ⁠their main concern when taking a decision ⁠on next month's Formula One races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. "Safety and wellbeing will guide our decisions as we assess the forthcoming events scheduled there for the FIA World Endurance Championship and the FIA Formula One world championship," he said on Monday. SINDHU WITHDRAWS FROM BADMINTON'S ALL ENGLAND OPENTwo-time Olympic medallist PV Sindhu was stranded for days at Dubai airport on her way to the All England Open, ​and returned to India as the Badminton World Federation said the former world champion had withdrawn from the tournament. "Back home in Bangalore and safe. The last few days have been intense and uncertain, but I'm truly grateful to be back to my house," Sindhu wrote on X. WEST INDIES, ZIMBABWE DELAY RETURN FROM T20 WORLD CUPThe West Indies and Zimbabwe teams said on Monday they have delayed their return from India after their exit from the Twenty20 World Cup. Zimbabwe were scheduled to return home via Dubai but remain safe and well in India, the country's cricket ‌body said. Cricket West Indies ​said it was working with the sport's global body (ICC) to make safe travel arrangements for its players and staff. 

A winter storm bringing icy temperatures will slam a massive stretch of the United States this week, with more than 175mn people facing the prospect of heavy snowfall, power outages and travel disruption.Winter Storm Fern is forecast to engulf an area stretching from Texas and the Great Plains region to the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states.Forecasters warned it could be 2,000 miles (3,219lm) long – well over half the length of the continental US.The storm, which could impact nearly half the country's population, will bring up to 20” (50.8cm) of snow in the Appalachians and West Virginia mountains, while most people living in the eastern US could face dangerous slick or frozen roads and potential power outages from ice-laden trees and branches falling and snapping power lines, officials said."With the extreme cold in the North and the storm, half of all Americans are under some form of weather advisories," said Brian Hurley, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service (NWS)’s Weather Prediction Centre in College Park, Maryland.New York City, Boston, Baltimore and Washington, DC could see 4-10” of heavy, wet snow starting Saturday, Hurley said, with temperatures in the low 20s degrees Fahrenheit in DC and Boston seeing a low of 7F (-14° Celsius).Throughout the storm, New York state was expected to be under a "Code Blue", which requires social service providers to extend shelter hours and ensure the homeless have access to them.Chicago will see a "deep freeze", according to Hurley, with a low of -2F Friday and Saturday and dangerous wind chills of -30F.Space heaters have been flying off the shelves all week at JC Licht Ace Hardware River North in Chicago, according to manager James Martin.Chicagoans know how to deal with extreme cold, said Martin, a Chicago native. "We move fast and we dress in layers and layers and more layers. Then we ask, 'Why do we still live here?"In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott declared a state of emergency, activating extra personnel and equipment to help control traffic, monitor power outages, rescue people trapped by the storm, and more.He urged Texans to "remain weather-aware, check DriveTexas.org before traveling, and heed the guidance of state and local officials”.The storm is expected to clear out of most areas by late Sunday or early on Monday.The extreme cold from an Arctic blast of air from Canada will bring a high temperature of only -5F Saturday in Fargo, North Dakota.Farther south the main storm hazard will be ice, weather forecasters said.From Central Virginia to northern Texas, the southeastern states could see accumulations of up to a half inch of ice.A combination of snow, rain and sleet could make travel almost impossible, local media warned.The Monroe County Road Commission, which covers a large area outside Detroit, Michigan, warned "there is a shortage of salt”."This year we've used more than we have the last four Decembers combined," David Leach, the commission's managing director, told CBS News.In past years, rural areas in the northeast have been entirely cut off as snowploughs struggled to clear roads. 

Air travel in India was thrown into chaos after an operational meltdown at the country’s largest airline forced it to scrap more than 1,000 flights on December 5 alone. Around half a million travellers were affected by the disruption.**media[391743]**Four days on, IndiGo’s operations were gradually returning to normal. But hundreds of services were still being axed daily as Chief Executive Officer Pieter Elbers struggled to get flight schedules back on track. India’s aviation regulator accused the company of “significant lapses in planning, oversight, and resource management.”The government launched an investigation into how a company that controls roughly two-thirds of the national aviation market came unstuck in such dramatic fashion. Industry experts pointed to a lack of pilots to keep IndiGo’s operations running smoothly when there are disruptions. The crisis had sent shares in IndiGo’s parent company InterGlobe Aviation Ltd down almost 17% as of Dec. 8, wiping $4.5bn off its market value. What went wrong at IndiGo? IndiGo blamed a combination of simultaneous problems — minor technology glitches, adverse weather, changes in flight schedules, congestion and a recent tightening of rules around the frequency and duration of mandatory rest breaks to minimise fatigue.**media[391738]**Pilots’ rosters are typically organised a month in advance, and the flurry in cancellations meant lots of IndiGo planes and crew were no longer in the right place to operate the scheduled services.The budget airline is known for a ruthless cost-efficiency mindset and rapid flight turnarounds. It offers more than 2,200 services per day, giving it significant economies of scale but also more potential points of failure.The new rules on mandatory rest periods mean airlines can no longer operate as many night flights unless they take on more pilots. The rule changes were in the works for two years, and government officials said IndiGo should have moved sooner to hire enough crew to account for the new arrangements before they took effect on November 1.**media[391739]**What was the fallout for passengers? The disruption began on December 3 and snowballed to a point where virtually all IndiGo services in and out of its main Delhi International Airport hub were scrapped. Poor communication from the airline meant travellers often didn’t know if their flights were cancelled or merely delayed. Crowds gathered at ticketing desks, check-in points and boarding gates and some unleashed their frustration by screaming at staff. Many lost their luggage amid the chaos.**media[391741]**Switching airlines was possible, but came with a huge cost. Air India seats were selling for 52,000 rupees ($578) per person for a one-way trip to Delhi from Mumbai — almost 10 times the average fare. Some IndiGo customers threatened on social media to sue the company.The desperation was especially acute for those stranded in smaller towns. At Kannur International Airport in southwest India, which operates barely a dozen flights per day, traveller Preksha Vivekanandan said she couldn’t find any available buses or trains.“I’m completely stuck and have no idea what to do next,” said Vivekanandan, who works for the UK’s National Health Service. How much does India rely on IndiGo? IndiGo took to the skies in 2006 with one Airbus SE A320 jet operating out of New Delhi, and has since grown to control two-thirds of the domestic market with a fleet of more than 410 aircraft.**media[391742]**The collapse of several airlines over the years due to over-ambitious growth plans and financial and supply-chain challenges underscores the difficulty of operating in the Indian air travel market. IndiGo’s meteoric rise was aided by the failure of rivals including Kingfisher Airlines, Jet Airways and Go First, while financial troubles have weakened India’s third-largest domestic airline, SpiceJet.The second-biggest player behind IndiGo is Air India Group, the previously state-owned carrier now owned by the powerful TATA Group. Air India is undergoing an overhaul after decades of losses and under-investment. It has absorbed two other carriers — Vistara and AirAsia India — and its ability to challenge IndiGo is held back by its own sweeping transformation and a long wait for new aircraft. How has the government responded to the IndiGo crisis? The government briefly put the new limits on pilot night-flying hours on hold to help the carrier return to normal.The Directorate General of Civil Aviation demanded official explanations from IndiGo CEO Elbers and Chief Operating Officer Isidre Porqueras. “You have failed in your duty to ensure timely arrangements for conduct of reliable operations and the availability of requisite facilities to the passengers,” the DGCA told Elbers in a letter.**media[391740]**IndiGo responded to the letter, saying it was hard to pinpoint the exact reasons for the disruptions and asked for more time to conduct a thorough analysis. The aviation regulator said it was examining the response and that enforcement action would be taken in due course.Minister of Civil Aviation Ram Mohan Naidu ordered an investigation into the disruption. “The inquiry will examine what went wrong at IndiGo, determine accountability wherever required for appropriate actions, and recommend measures to prevent similar disruptions in the future, ensuring that passengers do not face such hardships again,” he said.Rival carriers swiftly added more flights for stranded IndiGo customers, and fares jumped on the surge in demand.In response, the government stepped in to cap ticket prices at 7,500 rupees ($83.30) for journeys of up to 500 kilometres (311 miles) and 18,000 rupees for routes of more than 1,500 kilometres. It said the limits would remain in effect until the situation stabilised. State-owned Indian Railways said it was adding 116 coaches to its 37 trains and would run four special train services. 

Storm Alice has unleashed torrential rains and flash floods across eastern Spain, forcing thousands to evacuate and causing major disruption to air, road, and rail transport. In Catalonia, Valencia, and Ibiza, heavy downpours inundated streets, stranded motorists, and led to widespread flight cancellations along Spain's Mediterranean coast. The national meteorological agency, AEMET, issued a red alert for parts of Valencia, warning that up to 100 millimeters of rainfall could occur within an hour. Civil Protection authorities urged residents to remain indoors as floodwaters continued to rise, particularly in low-lying urban and coastal areas. Train services along the Mediterranean corridor between Barcelona and Valencia were suspended, affecting more than 3,000 passengers. The storm is expected to persist through the week, with AEMET maintaining orange alerts for coastal regions of Alicante, Valencia, and Castellón amid forecasts of continued heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Three people were killed as powerful storms swept across several European countries Sunday, causing widespread disruption to air, sea, and land transportation. The storm continued moving eastward from the British Isles toward France and Germany, amid warnings of strong winds and high tides.Local authorities in France announced the deaths of two people as a result of the effects of Storm Amy. The French Meteorological administration has raised the alert level to orange in six northern departments in anticipation of heavy winds and rain, noting that power was cut to approximately 5,000 houses in the Normandy region.Strong winds and heavy rain also caused one death, extensive damage, and power outages in Ireland.The severe weather conditions extended to the Netherlands, where authorities canceled approximately 80 arriving and 70 departing flights due to the bad weather.European meteorological centers expect the storm's effects to continue over the coming hours as it moves eastward toward the center of the continent, accompanied by strong winds and heavy rains. It is expected to gradually subside early next week.

Russian authorities announced that two people were injured in a Ukrainian missile attack on the city of Belgorod in western Russia. Belgorod Regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said via Telegram that two civilians were injured in a missile attack on Belgorod.A man was hit by shrapnel in the stomach, and a woman is also believed to be injured. He warned of possible delays in missile and drone attack alerts.The attack caused a major disruption to electricity supplies, and efforts are underway to convert vital infrastructure to back up generation.Reports and information from both countries regarding field data conflict is impossible to verify from independent sources, given the ongoing war and fighting since February 2022.

Oil prices held steady in early trade on Tuesday after rising in the previous session, as market participants contemplated potential supply disruption from Russia. Brent Crude futures edged up 4 cents to $67.48 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $63.32, up 2 cents. On Monday, Brent settled up 45 cents at $67.44 while WTI settled 61 cents higher at $63.30.

During a year of tumultuous events in geopolitics, much of the global economy, and stock prices, have remained buoyant. This may not be the contradiction it appears. Despite what appears to be significant potential for economic disruption, some investors have adopted an attitude of ‘nothing ever happens’, to counter a tendency to over-react to events provoking headlines that have – or may have – little lasting economic impact. The buoyancy of the stock market despite geopolitical tensions and trade wars highlights the risk of over-reacting to the news. Some investors adopt a mantra of ‘nothing ever happens’ – but are they under-estimating looming risks? The ‘nothing ever happens’ mantra is not a matter of ignoring global events, but rather coolly assessing the actual economic impact. Of course, some turbulent events in geopolitics are notable more for their potential, than the short-term reality. Threats or hints of nuclear weapons being used are unlikely to lead to an actual nuclear war, but the risk of nuclear weapons being fired in anger is not zero, so it is one to watch. In the financial markets, weak signals that could herald a shock on the scale of 2008 are observable – high valuations in the stock market, also in crypto at a time of weak regulation – but it is impossible to gauge if these signals are a harbinger of an impactful crash, or whether they remain weak. And if there is a shock, could it occur this year, or in five years’ time? If one looks historically at the events that have had a major economic impact, there have been few. Examples include the oil price shocks of 1973-74 and 1979-81 which led to stagflation in many economies, and the financial crash and banking bailouts of 2008 – although the impact of the latter was largely confined to western economies which had banks directly exposed; Gulf countries were largely unaffected. Of greater impact globally was the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020-22, owing the strict lockdowns. It is long established in the academic disciplines of cognitive behavioural psychology and behavioural finance that, as a species, we are more drawn to dramatic and negative developments than benign ones; loss aversion is more powerful than the prospect of gains, and bad or shocking news is effective as clickbait. This means that the discipline of staying informed through news media can result, paradoxically, in a skewed understanding of global developments. Complicating the issue is that much news is gathered through social media that is not fact-checked. In its 2024 Global Risks Report, the World Economic Forum cited disinformation as the most serious destabilising factor for the short-term, citing the use of deepfake videos and other misuses of AI. These phenomena lend weight to the idea of downplaying the significance of narratives shaped by headlines. Another element is that, far from ‘nothing’ happening, there is too much. The projections from early 2025 by many economists of the impact of President Trump’s tariff policy have been way off, with a typical estimate of 0.1% reduction of GDP for each 1% added to tariffs proving to be inaccurate. The issue may be the sheer complexity and interconnectedness of the global economy, which makes it is doubtful that it can be modelled or projected in a meaningful way. Economic historians note that protectionist policies were likely a significant cause of the Great Depression in the 1930s. In the 2020s, trade of goods is, proportionately, a smaller part of the economy, compared with services, including much activity that is online. Entrepreneurialism and business growth are now global phenomena. It would probably be impossible accurately to quantify this proportion, but one proxy indicator is that only around 17% of the earnings on the S&P 500 are directly affected by tariffs, according to an analysis by Deutsche Bank. Moreover, while the US is the biggest market, it is around 24% of global GDP, compared with over 40% in the 1960s. There is a risk that the ‘nothing ever happens’ movement could under-estimate the impact of a succession of developments which, individually, may not amount to much but which cumulatively can become impactful. These include President Trump’s tariffs, his firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the rise of public debt in the US and other western economies, the concentration of stock market gains within just a few tech firms, Trump’s threats to the chairman of the Federal Reserve, his deregulation of crypto. Some of these individually may be judged to be of minor significance, but the accumulation may be beginning to be felt. Of these, probably of greatest long-term significance is rising debt, which means an increasing proportion of government expenditure being devoted to interest payments placing pressure on public services, and the progressive erosion of value of fiat currencies. The prices of tangible assets, such as gold, property and land, have been appreciating. This slow, long-term development will almost certainly become of greater magnitude, in economic terms, than many of the more dramatic developments that prompt headlines. The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions