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Air travel in India was thrown into chaos after an operational meltdown at the country’s largest airline forced it to scrap more than 1,000 flights on December 5 alone. Around half a million travellers were affected by the disruption.**media[391743]**Four days on, IndiGo’s operations were gradually returning to normal. But hundreds of services were still being axed daily as Chief Executive Officer Pieter Elbers struggled to get flight schedules back on track. India’s aviation regulator accused the company of “significant lapses in planning, oversight, and resource management.”The government launched an investigation into how a company that controls roughly two-thirds of the national aviation market came unstuck in such dramatic fashion. Industry experts pointed to a lack of pilots to keep IndiGo’s operations running smoothly when there are disruptions. The crisis had sent shares in IndiGo’s parent company InterGlobe Aviation Ltd down almost 17% as of Dec. 8, wiping $4.5bn off its market value. What went wrong at IndiGo? IndiGo blamed a combination of simultaneous problems — minor technology glitches, adverse weather, changes in flight schedules, congestion and a recent tightening of rules around the frequency and duration of mandatory rest breaks to minimise fatigue.**media[391738]**Pilots’ rosters are typically organised a month in advance, and the flurry in cancellations meant lots of IndiGo planes and crew were no longer in the right place to operate the scheduled services.The budget airline is known for a ruthless cost-efficiency mindset and rapid flight turnarounds. It offers more than 2,200 services per day, giving it significant economies of scale but also more potential points of failure.The new rules on mandatory rest periods mean airlines can no longer operate as many night flights unless they take on more pilots. The rule changes were in the works for two years, and government officials said IndiGo should have moved sooner to hire enough crew to account for the new arrangements before they took effect on November 1.**media[391739]**What was the fallout for passengers? The disruption began on December 3 and snowballed to a point where virtually all IndiGo services in and out of its main Delhi International Airport hub were scrapped. Poor communication from the airline meant travellers often didn’t know if their flights were cancelled or merely delayed. Crowds gathered at ticketing desks, check-in points and boarding gates and some unleashed their frustration by screaming at staff. Many lost their luggage amid the chaos.**media[391741]**Switching airlines was possible, but came with a huge cost. Air India seats were selling for 52,000 rupees ($578) per person for a one-way trip to Delhi from Mumbai — almost 10 times the average fare. Some IndiGo customers threatened on social media to sue the company.The desperation was especially acute for those stranded in smaller towns. At Kannur International Airport in southwest India, which operates barely a dozen flights per day, traveller Preksha Vivekanandan said she couldn’t find any available buses or trains.“I’m completely stuck and have no idea what to do next,” said Vivekanandan, who works for the UK’s National Health Service. How much does India rely on IndiGo? IndiGo took to the skies in 2006 with one Airbus SE A320 jet operating out of New Delhi, and has since grown to control two-thirds of the domestic market with a fleet of more than 410 aircraft.**media[391742]**The collapse of several airlines over the years due to over-ambitious growth plans and financial and supply-chain challenges underscores the difficulty of operating in the Indian air travel market. IndiGo’s meteoric rise was aided by the failure of rivals including Kingfisher Airlines, Jet Airways and Go First, while financial troubles have weakened India’s third-largest domestic airline, SpiceJet.The second-biggest player behind IndiGo is Air India Group, the previously state-owned carrier now owned by the powerful TATA Group. Air India is undergoing an overhaul after decades of losses and under-investment. It has absorbed two other carriers — Vistara and AirAsia India — and its ability to challenge IndiGo is held back by its own sweeping transformation and a long wait for new aircraft. How has the government responded to the IndiGo crisis? The government briefly put the new limits on pilot night-flying hours on hold to help the carrier return to normal.The Directorate General of Civil Aviation demanded official explanations from IndiGo CEO Elbers and Chief Operating Officer Isidre Porqueras. “You have failed in your duty to ensure timely arrangements for conduct of reliable operations and the availability of requisite facilities to the passengers,” the DGCA told Elbers in a letter.**media[391740]**IndiGo responded to the letter, saying it was hard to pinpoint the exact reasons for the disruptions and asked for more time to conduct a thorough analysis. The aviation regulator said it was examining the response and that enforcement action would be taken in due course.Minister of Civil Aviation Ram Mohan Naidu ordered an investigation into the disruption. “The inquiry will examine what went wrong at IndiGo, determine accountability wherever required for appropriate actions, and recommend measures to prevent similar disruptions in the future, ensuring that passengers do not face such hardships again,” he said.Rival carriers swiftly added more flights for stranded IndiGo customers, and fares jumped on the surge in demand.In response, the government stepped in to cap ticket prices at 7,500 rupees ($83.30) for journeys of up to 500 kilometres (311 miles) and 18,000 rupees for routes of more than 1,500 kilometres. It said the limits would remain in effect until the situation stabilised. State-owned Indian Railways said it was adding 116 coaches to its 37 trains and would run four special train services. 

Storm Alice has unleashed torrential rains and flash floods across eastern Spain, forcing thousands to evacuate and causing major disruption to air, road, and rail transport. In Catalonia, Valencia, and Ibiza, heavy downpours inundated streets, stranded motorists, and led to widespread flight cancellations along Spain's Mediterranean coast. The national meteorological agency, AEMET, issued a red alert for parts of Valencia, warning that up to 100 millimeters of rainfall could occur within an hour. Civil Protection authorities urged residents to remain indoors as floodwaters continued to rise, particularly in low-lying urban and coastal areas. Train services along the Mediterranean corridor between Barcelona and Valencia were suspended, affecting more than 3,000 passengers. The storm is expected to persist through the week, with AEMET maintaining orange alerts for coastal regions of Alicante, Valencia, and Castellón amid forecasts of continued heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Three people were killed as powerful storms swept across several European countries Sunday, causing widespread disruption to air, sea, and land transportation. The storm continued moving eastward from the British Isles toward France and Germany, amid warnings of strong winds and high tides.Local authorities in France announced the deaths of two people as a result of the effects of Storm Amy. The French Meteorological administration has raised the alert level to orange in six northern departments in anticipation of heavy winds and rain, noting that power was cut to approximately 5,000 houses in the Normandy region.Strong winds and heavy rain also caused one death, extensive damage, and power outages in Ireland.The severe weather conditions extended to the Netherlands, where authorities canceled approximately 80 arriving and 70 departing flights due to the bad weather.European meteorological centers expect the storm's effects to continue over the coming hours as it moves eastward toward the center of the continent, accompanied by strong winds and heavy rains. It is expected to gradually subside early next week.

Russian authorities announced that two people were injured in a Ukrainian missile attack on the city of Belgorod in western Russia. Belgorod Regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said via Telegram that two civilians were injured in a missile attack on Belgorod.A man was hit by shrapnel in the stomach, and a woman is also believed to be injured. He warned of possible delays in missile and drone attack alerts.The attack caused a major disruption to electricity supplies, and efforts are underway to convert vital infrastructure to back up generation.Reports and information from both countries regarding field data conflict is impossible to verify from independent sources, given the ongoing war and fighting since February 2022.

Oil prices held steady in early trade on Tuesday after rising in the previous session, as market participants contemplated potential supply disruption from Russia. Brent Crude futures edged up 4 cents to $67.48 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $63.32, up 2 cents. On Monday, Brent settled up 45 cents at $67.44 while WTI settled 61 cents higher at $63.30.

During a year of tumultuous events in geopolitics, much of the global economy, and stock prices, have remained buoyant. This may not be the contradiction it appears. Despite what appears to be significant potential for economic disruption, some investors have adopted an attitude of ‘nothing ever happens’, to counter a tendency to over-react to events provoking headlines that have – or may have – little lasting economic impact. The buoyancy of the stock market despite geopolitical tensions and trade wars highlights the risk of over-reacting to the news. Some investors adopt a mantra of ‘nothing ever happens’ – but are they under-estimating looming risks? The ‘nothing ever happens’ mantra is not a matter of ignoring global events, but rather coolly assessing the actual economic impact. Of course, some turbulent events in geopolitics are notable more for their potential, than the short-term reality. Threats or hints of nuclear weapons being used are unlikely to lead to an actual nuclear war, but the risk of nuclear weapons being fired in anger is not zero, so it is one to watch. In the financial markets, weak signals that could herald a shock on the scale of 2008 are observable – high valuations in the stock market, also in crypto at a time of weak regulation – but it is impossible to gauge if these signals are a harbinger of an impactful crash, or whether they remain weak. And if there is a shock, could it occur this year, or in five years’ time? If one looks historically at the events that have had a major economic impact, there have been few. Examples include the oil price shocks of 1973-74 and 1979-81 which led to stagflation in many economies, and the financial crash and banking bailouts of 2008 – although the impact of the latter was largely confined to western economies which had banks directly exposed; Gulf countries were largely unaffected. Of greater impact globally was the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020-22, owing the strict lockdowns. It is long established in the academic disciplines of cognitive behavioural psychology and behavioural finance that, as a species, we are more drawn to dramatic and negative developments than benign ones; loss aversion is more powerful than the prospect of gains, and bad or shocking news is effective as clickbait. This means that the discipline of staying informed through news media can result, paradoxically, in a skewed understanding of global developments. Complicating the issue is that much news is gathered through social media that is not fact-checked. In its 2024 Global Risks Report, the World Economic Forum cited disinformation as the most serious destabilising factor for the short-term, citing the use of deepfake videos and other misuses of AI. These phenomena lend weight to the idea of downplaying the significance of narratives shaped by headlines. Another element is that, far from ‘nothing’ happening, there is too much. The projections from early 2025 by many economists of the impact of President Trump’s tariff policy have been way off, with a typical estimate of 0.1% reduction of GDP for each 1% added to tariffs proving to be inaccurate. The issue may be the sheer complexity and interconnectedness of the global economy, which makes it is doubtful that it can be modelled or projected in a meaningful way. Economic historians note that protectionist policies were likely a significant cause of the Great Depression in the 1930s. In the 2020s, trade of goods is, proportionately, a smaller part of the economy, compared with services, including much activity that is online. Entrepreneurialism and business growth are now global phenomena. It would probably be impossible accurately to quantify this proportion, but one proxy indicator is that only around 17% of the earnings on the S&P 500 are directly affected by tariffs, according to an analysis by Deutsche Bank. Moreover, while the US is the biggest market, it is around 24% of global GDP, compared with over 40% in the 1960s. There is a risk that the ‘nothing ever happens’ movement could under-estimate the impact of a succession of developments which, individually, may not amount to much but which cumulatively can become impactful. These include President Trump’s tariffs, his firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the rise of public debt in the US and other western economies, the concentration of stock market gains within just a few tech firms, Trump’s threats to the chairman of the Federal Reserve, his deregulation of crypto. Some of these individually may be judged to be of minor significance, but the accumulation may be beginning to be felt. Of these, probably of greatest long-term significance is rising debt, which means an increasing proportion of government expenditure being devoted to interest payments placing pressure on public services, and the progressive erosion of value of fiat currencies. The prices of tangible assets, such as gold, property and land, have been appreciating. This slow, long-term development will almost certainly become of greater magnitude, in economic terms, than many of the more dramatic developments that prompt headlines. The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions