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US President Donald Trump said Sunday he had told his representatives not to rush into any deal with ‌Iran, as his administration played down hopes of an imminent breakthrough in the three-month-old war that had been raised ​a day earlier.The US blockade on ‌Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz would "remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, ‌certified, and signed", Trump wrote ⁠on Truth Social. "Both sides must ‌take their time and get it right," he ‌added.There was no immediate response from Iran's government. But Tasnim news agency, which is linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guards, said the US ⁠was still obstructing parts of a potential deal, including Tehran's demand for the release of frozen funds.A day earlier, Trump said Washington and Iran had "largely negotiated" a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which before the conflict carried one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.Trump, whose approval ratings have been hit by the war's impact on US energy prices, has repeatedly played up the prospect of an agreement to end the conflict that the US and Israel started on February 28. A tenuous ceasefire has been in place since early April.The two sides remain at ​odds on several difficult issues, such as Iran's nuclear ambitions, Israel's war in Lebanon with Hezbollah militia and Tehran's demands for the lifting of sanctions and the release of tens of billions of dollars of Iranian oil revenues frozen in foreign banks.A senior Trump ‌administration official told reporters an agreement would not ⁠be signed today, saying ​the Iranian system did not move fast enough.But he outlined what he said were the latest contours ​of what was being negotiated.The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Iran had agreed "in principle" to open the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade, and to dispose of Tehran's highly enriched uranium.He said the US understood Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had endorsed the broad template of the deal.There was no immediate confirmation from Iran or elaboration on what an "in principle" agreement meant.The US official said Washington envisioned first re-opening the strait and lifting the US naval blockade.That would "take that economic pressure out of the world economy, and then you negotiate the mechanism by which they will give up various parts of the nuclear programme, and yes, of course, we would contemplate some time limit," the official said.Negotiating the details of the nuclear measures would take more time, he said.He pushed back on suggestions ‌that Iran has not accepted disposing of its ‌stockpiled enriched uranium. "It's a question about how," the official ⁠said, adding "there are a number of practical considerations."Iranian sources had told Reuters that in future stages, "feasible formulas" could be found to resolve ⁠the dispute over its highly enriched uranium stockpile, including ⁠diluting the material under the supervision of the UN nuclear watchdog.Iran has long denied US and Israeli accusations that it is pursuing nuclear weapons and says it has a right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes, although the purity it has achieved far exceeds that needed for power generation.In another potential stumbling block, an Iranian military adviser to Khamenei said Tehran had the legal right to manage the Strait of Hormuz, though it was not clear if that meant continuing to decide which ships can ​go through.Iran's Revolutionary Guards said 33 vessels had passed through the strait over the past 24 hours after getting permission from Tehran, still far short of the 140 on a typical day before the war.Any deal reinforcing the current fragile ceasefire would bring relief to markets but not immediately quell a global energy crisis, which has driven up costs of fuel, fertilizer and food.Even if the war ends now, full flows through the strait will not return before the first or second quarter of 2027, the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said last week. 

Demand destruction is a long-established and well-studied phenomenon in economics. It occurs when a prolonged curtailment of supply, or a disruptive technology, causes a sustained reduction in demand, a significant proportion of which is non-reversible. It represents a fundamental change in the market. Are we seeing this in oil and gas, as a consequence of the US-Israel-Iran conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz?While the oil price rise has been moderate to date, it is possible that prices will rise further rather than fall. Advanced economies have released significant amounts of oil reserves to mitigate the impact of the supply disruptions, and by definition this cannot be sustained indefinitely. Commercial stocks have also been used, but likewise are finite in supply. Finally, there was already a considerable quantity of oil and gas in transit when the conflict began, but less with each week of the blockade.An oil price of $100 per barrel or above, compared with around $65 in 2025, is set to be a feature of the global economy for some time to come. Such a scenario could cause long-term demand destruction for petroleum-related products, and there are indicators showing that this is already occurring. According to a survey by The Economist magazine, demand for oil in April was running at around 4mn barrels per day below forecasts.In volume terms, this is the biggest energy supply shock of modern history. It is not, at least not yet, the biggest economic shock. This is partly because the oil intensity of the global economy has diminished since the two oil price crises of 1973 and 1979. In the late 20th century, economic growth indicators moved in approximately inverse correlation with the oil price, and the relationship now is weaker. In 1973 around 131 litres of oil were consumed for every $1,000 of GDP growth. By 2025 it was 52 litres.Europe, for example, has become less reliant on oil and gas for electricity generation. Investment in nuclear energy, solar, wind and hydro power, and in the capacity of power grids, has resulted in much less disruption and inflation than in 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which curbed oil and gas supplies. In France, a one-year forward power contract is around €50 per Megawatt hour compared with a peak of over €1,000 in August 2022.The development of renewable energy is a feature of demand destruction of oil and gas. It is a complex picture, however. Oil as a commodity has many more uses than refining to make petrol, diesel and aviation fuel. One refined product is naphtha, the supply of which has been affected by the conflict in the Gulf. Naphtha is the core ingredient for plastics. Electric vehicles have several components that are derived from petroleum, including plastic parts of the structure, hydraulic fluids, and parts for lithium-ion batteries. Similarly, plastics are used in solar panels and wind turbines.Other commodities affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz include helium, used in the manufacture of chips for AI, and for electric vehicles. Supply of fertilisers for farms has also been badly affected by the blockade; also aluminium, which has numerous industrial applications.Some commodities do not have an alternative, but changes in some sectors, in addition to oil and gas, may be ‘sticky’. With tourism, there is an immediate crisis in the Gulf when the outbreak of conflict and the closure of air space resulted in a crash in the number of vacations taken. Moreover, shortages in aviation fuel have resulted in sharp increases in air prices. Recovery in tourism will likely take time.Commuting is another example. Many nations have rationed energy, or imposed work-from-home orders in the public sector to reduce petrol consumption, while prices at the pumps have risen. Given that the supply constraints of oil and related products are becoming prolonged, such measures are set to persist.In the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020-22, millions of workers worked from home; and while commuting did return at scale after the pandemic, this was not to the same level. A survey of 10 cities by the Financial Times in 2024 found that commuting levels were typically between 10% and 30% lower than before Covid. Advances in video meeting technology help support working from home.Demand destruction is therefore a major economic phenomenon this year – globally, but with a particularly heavy impact in the Middle East. Businesses need to adjust; this includes firms in transport, tourism, food supply and the restaurant sector as well as the more obvious areas such as commodities. Demand is set to be lower, and some operating costs unavoidably higher. Businesses need to trim overheads, improve efficiency and adjust to new market conditions.The conflict appears to have reached a stalemate with negligible freight passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Given that oil reserves have been run down, the full impact of the supply constraint is yet to come. A return to normal will not arrive swiftly, and may not arrive at all.The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions. 

Talks to end the Iran war could resume in ‌Pakistan over the next two days, US President Donald Trump said Tuesday, after the collapse of weekend negotiations prompted Washington to ​impose a blockade on Iranian ports.  Gulf, Pakistani and Iranian ‌officials also said negotiating teams from the US and Iran could return to Pakistan later this week, though one senior Iranian source ‌said no date had been set. "You ⁠should stay there, really, because something ‌could be happening over the next two days, and we're more ‌inclined to go there," Trump was quoted as saying in an interview with the New York Post.  While the US blockade drew angry rhetoric from Tehran, signs that diplomatic ⁠engagement might continue helped calm oil markets, pushing benchmark prices below $100 Tuesday. The highest-level talks between the two adversaries since the 1979 Islamic Revolution ended in Islamabad without a breakthrough, raising doubts over the survival of a two-week ceasefire that still has a week to run.  Since the US and Israel began the war on February 28, Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz to nearly all vessels except its own, saying passage would be permitted only under Iranian control and subject to a fee. Nearly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies previously flowed through the narrow waterway, making the fallout widespread. In a countermeasure, the US military said it began blocking shipping traffic in and out of Iran's ports on Monday.  Tehran has threatened to ​hit naval ships going through the strait and to retaliate against its Gulf neighbours' ports.  IMF CUTS GROWTH OUTLOOK US Central Command said the blockade of Iranian ports involved more than 10,000 US military personnel, more than a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft. "During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the US blockade and 6 merchant vessels ‌complied with direction from US forces to turn around to ⁠re-enter an Iranian port on ​the Gulf of Oman," CENTCOM said in a statement posted on X. Shipping data showed the blockade had made little difference to Strait ​of Hormuz traffic Tuesday, with at least eight ships crossing the waterway.  The latest standoff has further clouded the outlook for global energy security and the supply of goods that rely on petroleum. Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund cut its growth outlook and said the global economy would teeter on the brink of recession if the conflict worsens and oil stays above $100 per barrel into 2027. The International Energy Agency slashed its forecasts for global oil supply and demand growth, saying both are now expected to fall from 2025 levels. The US' Nato allies including Britain and France said they would not be drawn into the conflict by taking part in the blockade, although they have offered to help safeguard the strait by drawing together a defensive multilateral mission to assist when an agreement is in place. China, the main buyer of Iranian oil, said the US blockade was "dangerous and irresponsible" and would only aggravate tensions.  PROPOSAL FOR 20-YEAR SUSPENSION OF NUCLEAR ACTIVITY US Vice-President JD Vance, who led Washington's delegation in Pakistan, has said Trump was adamant ‌that any enriched nuclear material must be removed from Iran and ‌a mechanism be established to verify that Iran is not ⁠developing nuclear weapons. A source briefed on the matter confirmed reports that the US had proposed a 20-year suspension of all nuclear activity by Iran "with all sorts of restrictions." Two ⁠Iranian sources said Iran had rejected the proposal, suggesting a halt of ⁠just three to five years. One source involved in the negotiations in Pakistan said backchannel talks since the weekend had produced good progress in closing the gap on the nuclear issue, bringing the two sides closer to a deal that could be put forward at a new round of talks. Complicating Pakistan's mediation efforts, Israel has continued targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel and the US say that campaign is not covered by the ceasefire, while Iran has insisted it is. Israeli and Lebanese envoys were to meet in Washington Tuesday in a rare encounter also expected to be attended by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Lebanon's government has sought negotiations with ​Israel despite objections from Hezbollah. Israel killed more than 350 people in Lebanon in the war's worst strikes hours after the Iran ceasefire was announced last week, but later said it was willing to discuss a separate ceasefire with the Lebanese government. Regarding Iran, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar told reporters in Jerusalem Tuesday: "We will never allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons... The enriched materials must be removed from Iran."  CEASEFIRE STILL HOLDING With the war unpopular at home and rising energy prices causing political blowback, Trump paused the US-Israeli bombing campaign last week after threatening to destroy Iran's "whole civilisation" unless it reopened the strait. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from April 10 to 12 after the ceasefire was announced showed that 35% of Americans approve of US strikes against Iran, down from 37% a week earlier. The ceasefire has largely held over its first week despite sharp rhetoric from both sides. An Iranian military spokesperson called any US restrictions on international shipping "piracy", while Trump ‌said that Iran's navy had been "completely obliterated" and ​that only a small number of "fast-attack ships" remained. "Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED," Trump wrote on social media.

China launched live-fire drills around Taiwan Monday that it said would simulate a blockade of the self-ruled island’s key ports, prompting Taipei to condemn Beijing’s “military intimidation”. Beijing claims Taiwan as part of its sovereign territory and has refused to rule out using military action to seize the island democracy. The latest show of force follows a bumper round of arms sales to Taipei by the US, Taiwan’s main security backer. Beijing warned Monday that “external forces” arming Taipei would “push the Taiwan Strait into a perilous situation of imminent war”, but did not mention any countries by name. Foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said any attempts to stop China’s unification with Taiwan were “doomed to fail”. Reporters in Pingtan - a Chinese island that is the closest point to Taiwan’s main island - saw two fighter jets soaring across the sky and a Chinese military vessel in the distance. Visitors said they had been unaware of the drills as they milled around snapping photos. A tourist surnamed Guo, from Inner Mongolia, said she thinks a unification will “definitely happen”. “It’s just a matter of time,” she said. China said early Monday it was conducting “live-fire training on maritime targets to the north and southwest of Taiwan” in large-scale exercises involving destroyers, frigates, fighters, bombers and drones. Military spokesman Shi Yi said Beijing would send army, navy, air force and rocket force troops for drills code-named “Justice Mission 2025”. He said the drills would focus on “sea-air combat readiness patrol, joint seizure of comprehensive superiority, blockade on key ports and areas, as well as all-dimensional deterrence outside the island chain”. Chinese authorities published a map of five large zones around Taiwan where the war games would take place. Taiwan said China’s designated exercise zones, some of which are within 12 nautical miles of its coast, have affected international shipping and aviation routes. The island’s government condemned China’s “disregard for international norms and the use of military intimidation to threaten neighbouring countries”, presidential office spokeswoman Karen Kuo said. Its defence ministry said it had detected 89 Chinese military aircraft near its shores Monday - the highest number in a single day since October 2024. It also said it had detected 28 warships and coastguard vessels. Taiwan’s civil aviation administration said China had declared a “Temporary Danger Area” for 10 hours today. It also said “more than 100,000 (air) passengers” on 857 domestic, international and transit flights would be affected by the drills today. Taiwan’s military said it had established a response centre, deployed “appropriate forces” and “carried out a rapid response exercise”, while its coastguard said it “immediately deployed large vessels”. The drills by China’s ruling Communist Party “further confirm its nature as an aggressor, making it the greatest destroyer of peace”, Taipei’s defence ministry said. Chinese military spokesman Shi said the drills were “a stern warning against ‘Taiwan Independence’ separatist forces, and... a legitimate and necessary action to safeguard China’s sovereignty and national unity”. 

OilOil prices edged up on Friday on possible disruptions from a US blockade of Venezuelan tankers as the market waits for news about a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal.Brent crude futures settled at $60.47, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $56.66. For the week, Brent fell 1.1% and WTI fell 1.4%.As US President Donald Trump seeks an end to Europe's deadliest conflict since World War Two, the onus was on Ukraine and Europe to make the next move toward peace.Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday told reporters that the United States is not concerned about an escalation with Russia when it comes to Venezuela, as the Trump administration builds up military forces in the Caribbean. Venezuela pumps about 1% of global oil supplies.GasAsian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices slipped to a fresh 20-month low this week, weighed by weak demand in the region and ample supplies.The average LNG price for February delivery into north-east Asia was $9.50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), down from $10.00 per mmBtu last week, industry sources estimated.**media[395813]**Firm Chinese pipeline gas supplies and strong Japanese renewable power generation contributed to LNG demand weakness. The dip in prices had spurred some buying from price-sensitive importers last week.In Europe, the Dutch TTF price settled at $9.68 per mmBtu, recording a weekly gain of 2.3%. The market remains well supplied, buoyed by robust pipeline gas flows and a strong influx of spot US LNG into Europe. However, sentiment has stayed guarded amid forecasts for colder conditions early in the new year. 

African Union chairperson urges intelligence-sharing to aid MaliCalls for immediate release of three kidnapped EgyptiansAl Qaeda-linked jihadists claim new attack in Timbuktu region The African Union has called for an urgent international response, including intelligence-sharing, to address worsening security conditions in Mali, where insurgents are imposing a fuel blockade and kidnapping foreigners. An Al Qaeda-linked militant group active in West Africa's Sahel region has blocked fuel imports since September, attacking convoys of tankers and creating a shortage that forced schools and businesses to shut. The latest show of force by the group, JNIM, has raised concern that it might eventually try to impose its rule over the landlocked country. Western countries including the US, France, Britain and Italy are urging their citizens to leave. In a statement on Sunday, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, chairperson of the African Union Commission, expressed "deep concern over the rapidly deteriorating security situation in Mali, where terrorist groups have imposed blockades, disrupted access to essential supplies, and severely worsened humanitarian conditions for civilian populations". He said there should be "enhanced co-operation, intelligence-sharing and sustained support" for countries in the Sahel affected by violent extremism. The African Union suspended Mali after the 2021 coup that brought the country's current leader, Assimi Goita, to power. The military-led governments of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso have withdrawn from the West African regional bloc Ecowas, distanced themselves from Western allies and turned to Russia for military support. **media[379853]** JNIM claims to have killed hundreds of soldiers in attacks on military installations in those three countries this year. Their governments have not commented on the toll. Monday, a media unit for JNIM said its fighters had killed 48 soldiers and wounded more than 100 others in an attack on a military post in Soumpi in the northern Timbuktu region. A Malian military spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment. JNIM has targeted foreign nationals for kidnapping to finance its operations in West Africa. Youssouf of the African Union also called in his statement on Sunday for the immediate release of three Egyptians he said were recently seized. Reuters reported in October that a deal was reached to free two citizens of the United Arab Emirates. Schools reopened in the capital Bamako Monday, a Reuters witness said, after being suspended for two weeks because of the fuel shortage.

Israeli forces on Wednesday intercepted several vessels from the Global Sumud Flotilla, a civilian maritime mission aiming to break the blockade on the Gaza Strip. According to media reports, the intercepted ships were carrying dozens of activists and were ordered by Israeli forces to reroute to Ashdod port. The flotilla's organizers reported that the status of the activists and crew members aboard the seized vessels remains unknown. All individuals on the intercepted ships were reportedly detained by Israeli forces. Jawaher Chenna, a member of the Maghreb delegation of the flotilla, told Qatar News Agency (QNA) that contact was made with some Tunisian participants, who confirmed that three vessels - Alma, Syrus, and Adara- were intercepted, and the fate of those onboard remains unclear. The Sumud flotilla includes around 532 participants from more than 45 countries aboard nearly 50 ships that departed from Spain, Italy, and Tunisia.

Flotilla is latest attempt to break Israel's blockade of GazaOrganisers say unidentified vessels approached, military came on boardBoats had expected to reach Gaza on ThursdayIsraeli military personnel intercepted an international flotilla trying to deliver medicine and food to Gaza and boarded its boats as it approached the war-ravaged enclave.Some 20 unidentified vessels were seen approaching the flotilla earlier on Wednesday night, multiple people on board said, as passengers put on life vests and braced for a takeover."Our vessels are being illegally intercepted. Cameras are offline and vessels have been boarded by military personnel. We are actively working to confirm the safety and status of all participants on board," organisers of the flotilla said in a post on X.The Global Sumud Flotilla, which consists of more than 40 civilian boats carrying about 500 parliamentarians, lawyers and activists including Swedish climate campaigner Greta Thunberg, is trying to break Israel's blockade of Gaza, despite repeated warnings from Israel to turn back. It is within 90 nautical miles of the war-ravaged Strip, inside a zone that Israel is policing to stop any boats approaching.A live video feed from one of the boats in the flotilla showed passengers in life vests sitting on deck.It is not clear if all the boats had been intercepted or stopped. Some passengers said their vessels continued to advance.Organisers remained defiant. "We will not be intimidated by threats, harassment, or efforts to protect Israel's illegal siege on Gaza," they said in an earlier statement.The Israeli military did not respond to a request for comment about intercepting the vessels.The Israeli foreign ministry earlier said its navy had reached out to the flotilla to warn it was approaching an active combat zone and violating a lawful blockade, and asked them to change course.The ministry said that it reiterated the offer to transfer any aid peacefully through safe channels to Gaza.It is the latest sea-borne attempt to break Israel's blockade of Gaza, much of which has been turned into a wasteland by almost two years of war. The flotilla had been hoping to arrive in Gaza on Thursday morning if it was not intercepted.This was the second time the flotilla was approached on Wednesday. Before dawn, the mission's organisers said two Israeli "warships" had approached fast and encircled two of the flotilla's boats. All navigation and communication devices went down in what one organiser on board described as a "cyber attack". A video post on the flotilla's Instagram page showed the silhouette of what appeared to be a military vessel with a gun turret near the civilian boats.Reuters confirmed that the video was filmed from the flotilla, but could not confirm the identity of the other vessel in the video or when the video was taken. Last week the flotilla was attacked by drones, which dropped stun grenades and itching powder on the vessels, causing damage but no injuries. Israel did not comment on that attack, but has said it will use any means to prevent the boats from reaching Gaza, arguing that its naval blockade is legal as it battles Hamas in the coastal enclave. Italy and Spain deployed naval ships to help with any rescue or humanitarian needs but stopped following the flotilla once it got within 150 nautical miles of Gaza for safety reasons. Turkish drones have also followed the boats.Italy and Greece on Wednesday jointly called on Israel not to hurt the activists aboard and called on the flotilla to hand over its aid to the Catholic Church for indirect delivery to Gaza - a plea the flotilla has previously rejected.At the press conference held by organisers on Wednesday, Francesca Albanese, the top UN expert on Palestinian rights, said any interception of the flotilla "would be yet another violation of international law, the law of the sea" since Israel had no legal jurisdiction on waters off Gaza.Israel has imposed a naval blockade on Gaza since Hamas took control of the coastal enclave in 2007 and there have been several previous attempts by activists to deliver aid by sea.In 2010, nine activists were killed after Israeli soldiers boarded a flotilla of six ships manned by 700 pro-Palestinian activists from 50 countries. In June this year, Israeli naval forces detained Thunberg and 11 crew members from a small ship organised by a pro-Palestinian group called the Freedom Flotilla Coalition as they approached Gaza.

The Civil Defence in the Gaza Strip has raised alarm over the ongoing Israeli blockade preventing the entry of fuel supplies necessary for operating rescue and firefighting vehicles, warning of mounting humanitarian consequences.In a statement Sunday, Director of Humanitarian Support and International Relations at the Civil Defence, Mohammed al-Mughair, said that the continued denial of fuel supplies will severely impact the agency’s capacity to respond to emergencies and could result in further loss of lives across the besieged enclave.Al-Mughair warned of a sharp decline in Civil Defence services if the fuel shortage persists, and urged all concerned parties and international actors to intervene immediately and press Israel to allow the entry of fuel destined for humanitarian institutions operating in Gaza.The Civil Defence has been appealing for months to secure fuel for its operations. On August 20, it reported receiving only 10% of its monthly fuel needs since the beginning of that month.The crisis has been further exacerbated by Israel's closure of border crossings on March 2, effectively halting the flow of humanitarian aid, relief supplies, and fuel into the territory. Only limited fuel quantities have been allowed via international organisations, falling far short of Gaza’s minimum humanitarian requirements.This continued restriction, the Civil Defence warns, is not only hindering lifesaving operations but also pushing Gaza’s fragile emergency response infrastructure to the brink of collapse.

At least ten vessels of the "Global Sumud Flotilla", which seeks to break the blockade on the Gaza Strip, came under repeated drone attacks in the Mediterranean Sea, organizers said.Explosions were reported and communications on board were severely disrupted, though no casualties have been confirmed so far.Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories, said seven drone attacks struck the flotilla after about 15 aircraft flew overhead, stressing the urgent need for international protection.The flotilla's organizing committee said unidentified objects were dropped on ten boats, causing material damage, while 13 explosions were recorded nearby.It accused Israel of conducting a media disinformation campaign to justify potential military action against the humanitarian convoy, warning that targeting it would amount to a war crime and a flagrant violation of international law.The Global Sumud Flotilla comprises humanitarian workers, doctors, artists, and activists from 44 countries. It departed Tunisia earlier this month after several delays, with the aim of establishing a humanitarian corridor and breaking the blockade imposed on Gaza for more than 23 months. Israel previously intercepted similar sea-borne attempts to reach Gaza in June and July.