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Tariff rollback includes beef, tomatoes, bananas amid inflation concernsTrade deals with Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, El Salvador to eliminate tariffsDemocrats criticize Trump for inflation linked to tariffs (Adds Trump comments, paragraphs 3, 17, 18, details on order throughout, industry reaction paragraphs 12-15)US President Donald Trump has rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including such staples as coffee, beef, bananas and orange juice, in the face of growing angst among American consumers about the high cost of groceries.The new exemptions — which took effect retroactively at midnight on Thursday — mark a sharp reversal for Trump, who has long insisted that the sweeping import duties he imposed earlier this year are not fueling inflation."They may in some cases" raise prices, Trump said of his tariffs when asked about the move aboard Air Force One on Friday evening. But he insisted that overall, the US has "virtually no inflation." Democrats have won a string of victories in state and local elections in Virginia, New Jersey and New York City, where growing voter concerns about affordability, including high food prices, were a key topic.Trump also told reporters aboard Air Force One that he would move forward with a $2,000 payment to lower- and middle-income Americans that would be funded by tariff revenues next year sometime. "The tariffs allow us to give a dividend if we want to do that. Now we're going to do a dividend and we're also reducing debt," he said.The Trump administration announced framework trade deals on Thursday that, once finalised, will eliminate tariffs on certain foods and other imports from Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala and El Salvador, with US officials eyeing additional agreements before year's end.Friday's list includes products US consumers routinely purchase to feed their families at home, many of which have seen double-digit year-over-year price increases. It includes over 200 items ranging from oranges, acai berries and paprika to cocoa, chemicals used in food production, fertilizers and even communion wafers.The White House, in a fact sheet on the order, said it came on the heels of "significant progress the President has made in securing more reciprocal terms for our bilateral trade relationships." It said Trump decided certain food items could be exempted since they were not grown or processed in the US, and given the conclusion of nine framework deals, two final agreements on reciprocal trade, and two investment deals.Ground beef, as of the latest available data for September, was nearly 13% more expensive, according to Consumer Price Index data, and steaks cost almost 17% more than a year ago. Increases for both were the largest in more than three years, dating back to when inflation was nearing its peak under Trump's predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden.Although the US is a major beef producer, a persistent shortage of cattle in recent years has kept beef prices high.Banana prices were about 7% higher, while tomatoes were 1% higher. Overall costs for food consumed at home were up 2.7% in September.The tariff exemptions won praise from many industry groups, while some expressed disappointment that their products were excluded from the exemptions."Today’s action should help consumers, whose morning cup of coffee will hopefully become more affordable, as well as US manufacturers, which utilize many of these products in their supply chains and production lines," FMI-Food Industry Association president Leslie Sarasin said in a statement.Distilled Spirits Council president Chris Swonger said that excluding spirits from the European Union and Britain "is yet another blow to the US hospitality industry just as the critical holiday season kicks into high gear." "Scotch, Cognac and Irish Whiskey are value-added agricultural products that cannot be produced in the US," Swonger added.Asked if further changes were planned, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, "I don't think it'll be necessary." "We just did a little bit of a rollback," he said. "The prices of coffee were a little bit high, now they'll be on the low side in a very short period." NEW FOCUS ON AFFORDABILITY Trump has upended the global trading system by imposing a 10% base tariff on imports from every country, plus additional specific duties that vary from state to state.Trump has focused squarely on the issue of affordability in recent weeks, while insisting that any higher costs were triggered by policies enacted by Biden, and not his own tariff policies.Consumers have remained frustrated over high grocery prices, which economists say have been fueled in part by import tariffs and could rise further next year as companies start passing on the full brunt of the import duties.The top Democrat on the House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, Richard Neal, said the Trump administration was "putting out a fire that they started and claiming it as progress." "The Trump Administration is finally admitting publicly what we've all known from the start: Trump's Trade War is hiking costs on people," Neal said in a statement. "Since implementing these tariffs, inflation has increased and manufacturing has contracted month after month."

The dollar steadied on Tuesday, as US President Donald Trump softened his tone on tariffs toward China, and hopes grew for a possible meeting with his Chinese counterpart, which gave a boost to expectations of easing tensions between the world's two largest economies. The euro remained below USD 1.16, trading at USD 1.1566. The British pound fell 0.06 percent to USD 1.3328, while the New Zealand dollar fell again, touching a six‑month low at USD 0.57145. The dollar index, which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of currencies, rose 0.04 percent to 99.34 points. The Australian dollar remained almost unchanged at USD 0.6516, whereas the Japanese yen declined 0.2 percent to 152.57 per dollar.

Business confidence among major Japanese manufacturers improved for the second consecutive quarter after a deal to lower US tariffs, but the outlook was clouded by caution over the impact of the levies, the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey showed Wednesday. The sentiment index measuring confidence among companies such as those in the auto and electronics sectors rose to 14 in September from 13 three months earlier, falling slightly short of the average market forecast of 15. The index for large nonmanufacturers, including the service sector, was unchanged from the previous survey in June at 34, as they benefited from passing higher costs on to customers but were pressured by rising prices that prompted consumers to tighten their belts. Looking ahead, however, big manufacturers' sentiment is projected to worsen to 12, and that of large nonmanufacturers is expected to fall to 28, according to the central bank's quarterly survey. The latest Tankan was the first released since US President Donald Trump eased duties on Japanese goods after a bilateral trade deal in July, with the auto tariff reduced to 15 percent from 27.5 percent in mid-September. Among manufacturers, sentiment in the motor vehicle sector climbed to 10 from 8 in June, but is forecast to return to 8. Confidence among shipbuilding and heavy machinery makers jumped to 36 from 27, as they were able to pass rising costs on to customers through higher prices, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said.

QNB confirmed that the beginning of 2025 was accompanied by cautiously positive expectations for global trade growth, supported by relative stability in the world economy. However, new shifts in US trade policy have significantly affected the global economic landscape. The bank's weekly report noted that the decision of the United States on Apr. 2 to impose broad tariffs including duties of no less than 10 percent on imports and higher rates on selected countries has led to rising concerns about supply chain disruptions, increased uncertainty, and the potential escalation of trade disputes. The report stated that, as a result, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has forecast a contraction in global trade volumes for the current year, an occurrence that is rare and typically seen only in exceptional circumstances such as the 2009 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The report explained that economic indicators since April 2025 have shown notable resilience in the global economy despite existing challenges. It projected that global trade growth in 2025 will be modest compared to previous periods, but will remain far beyond the most pessimistic scenarios. This outlook is supported by three main factors. The first factor highlighted in the report is that leading indicators, particularly from highly integrated Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam, reflect strong export activity, signaling a recovery in global trade. These markets recorded an average annual growth rate of 6 percent in 2024, with the rate accelerating to 12 percent in the last four months of the year despite trade tensions. The report also pointed to Chinese export growth of 6 percent during the same period, reflecting sustained global demand. In this context, the report stated that investor expectations regarding the earnings of transportation-sector companies serve as an important indicator of future global trade trends. The Dow Jones Transportation Average in the United States, which includes companies involved in air, land, and sea transport as well as rail and delivery services, reached its lowest annual growth level in mid-2024 before rebounding into positive territory, signaling a possible expansion of trade.This improvement reflects a decline in pessimism even amid continued trade shocks. The gap between strong Asian export growth and the more cautious profit expectations of transport companies was attributed to the increase in early shipments to the US market in anticipation of further tariff threats. The second factor concerns a significant decrease in the likelihood of large-scale global trade wars despite the rise of US protectionist policies. The report explained that the conclusion of US negotiations with key trading partners, including the United Kingdom, Japan, and the European Union, has clearly reduced uncertainty and lowered the probability of expanding tariff measures. At the same time, most global economies are moving toward greater trade integration through multilateral agreements, which reduces the negative impact of protectionist policies and strengthens the stability of the global trading system. The third factor relates to monetary policy. The report considered that waves of monetary easing adopted by major central banks are expected to provide additional support for global trade growth in the coming period. It noted that the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 125 basis points next year, bringing it down to 3.25 percent by the end of 2026, in an effort to reduce borrowing costs and stimulate economic activity. Similarly, the European Central Bank has lowered its key rate by 200 basis points since mid-2024 to settle at 2 percent.The report emphasized that interest rates are a decisive factor in supporting investment and boosting consumer spending, which are two key pillars of global trade, particularly given that the United States and the euro area together account for about 40 percent of global GDP. The bank concluded its report by affirming that the outlook for 2025 indicates a tangible improvement in the prospects for global trade compared to the more pessimistic scenarios that followed Washington's announcement of broad tariffs. It pointed out that a combination of positive economic indicators, accommodative monetary policies, and the signing of new trade agreements is helping to limit the repercussions of geopolitical and economic tensions and to support the stability of the global trading system in the upcoming period.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) lifted its 2025 growth forecast for the first time in more than a year but warned that the effects of tariffs and war will weigh on growth in 2026. The report, which covers economies in emerging Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa, raised the 2025 growth outlook slightly to 3.1%, but noted a growing divergence as emerging European countries' growth lagged expansion elsewhere.The 2025 estimate excludes the development bank's newest members — Iraq and six Sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana — but they are included elsewhere in the report for the first time.Rising debt, resurgent inflation, prolonged wars and tariffs were menacing all EBRD economies, EBRD chief economist Beata Javorcik warned.While US imports from those countries had grown in the first half of the year, that was driven by the first quarter, before tariffs hit, she said.

Indian companies are betting on small towns and villages to sustain growth at a time the third-largest Asian economy is bracing for pain from US’s punishing 50% tariffs.Businesses from biscuits makers to building materials suppliers underscored the buoyant rural demand in investor calls for their June quarter earnings, adding that low inflation and the prospect of a good harvest will ensure the 900mn Indians living outside cities keep spending. Consumption growth in India’s countryside has outpaced that in urban markets for six straight quarters, according to data analytics firm NielsenIQ.Demand in rural India, dominated by its agrarian economy, is a bit more insulated from the impact of the exorbitant US tariffs, making it an important focus area to get growth from, Sudhanshu Vats, managing director at adhesives and paint maker Pidilite Industries Ltd told Bloomberg News.India’s gross domestic production in the three months through June expanded at the fastest pace in more than a year. Private consumption grew 7% on the back of strong rural demand and improvement in agriculture wages.The growth, however, risks hitting a speed-bump after US President Donald Trump doubled the 25% duty on Indian exports from August on more than half of goods shipped to the US — its biggest market. The levies will almost certainly bruise labour-intensive industries such as textiles and jewellery, which are concentrated around large cities.Meanwhile, real rural wages rose at the fastest pace in more than seven years, according to data from Citigroup Inc. The gap between rural and urban monthly per-capita consumption has also narrowed significantly, official figures showed.“We’ve seen very good growth this quarter,” Varun Berry, managing director at Britannia Industries Ltd, told investors last month, despite the global economy going through turbulent times. The bread and cookie maker expects to retain its growth momentum with a focus on India’s rural markets, he said.Pidilite is adding distributors and setting up branded stores in smaller towns, with population of less than 12,000, as well as expanding waterproofing centres and mobile customer support vans, to drive growth.Consumption accounts for more than half of the GDP in the world’s most populous nation, and mass spending in its hinterland is fast catching up with that in cities. Last month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced tax cuts that aim to shield the economy from the negative impact of US tariffs.“The timing of GST reforms is apt,” Tanvee Gupta Jain, chief India economist at UBS Securities, said in a note, adding that counter-cyclical policy measures were necessary to counter tariff uncertainties. The tax cuts will boost household consumption over the next two to three quarters, she added.Shares of rural-focused stocks have outperformed broader indexes, suggesting investors see them as a hedge against tariff risks.“We see large volumes of contribution coming from rural segment,” said Nikhil Doda, co-founder of Archian Foods Pvt, which sells a popular cumin-flavoured fizzy drink, Lahori Zeera.The company that competes with Coca Cola Co and PepsiCo Inc, even provides “insulated chill boxes” to rural sellers of its 10-rupees ($0.1) beverage, as most small shops don’t even have a refrigerator. Small towns are a significant contributor to the company’s sales.There is an inclination amid rural consumers to try newer products, according to K Ramakrishnan, managing director for South Asia at consumer research firm, Worldpanel by Numerator. “All the contributing factors to boosting consumption in rural areas are strong for India.”

A spate of inflation data confronts US stock investors in the coming week as markets grapple with fresh uncertainty over tariffs and government bond yields, while equities hover at lofty valuations. The benchmark S&P 500 index closed at a record high on Thursday despite an uneven start to September, which has been the worst month for stocks on average over the past 35 years. Stocks were pulling back on Friday after the monthly US employment report showed job growth weakened in August."September has been known to see a wearing down of the sentiment picture," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. At the same time, he said, "stocks aren't pricing in a lot of risks right now. They look fully valued."The monthly US consumer price index on Thursday highlights next week's economic releases, with investors focused on signals from the inflation data about the prospects for interest rate cuts and the fallout from tariffs on prices. Following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks late last month that flagged rising risks to employment, markets have been widely expecting the central bank to lower rates for the first time in nine months at its September 16-17 meeting.Investors bet on even more accelerated easing after the weak jobs report.Fed Funds futures were baking in a 90% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the meeting, and a roughly 10% chance of a heftier half-percentage point cut, LSEG data as of Friday afternoon showed.Only a CPI number that comes in "egregiously higher" than estimates could dent assumptions of imminent monetary policy easing, said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth.About 70 basis points of easing, or nearly three standard cuts, are projected by December, according to the futures data.Recently, "the prospect of the Fed cutting has been the overwhelming factor driving equity sentiment to be more positive," Miskin said. "And so if that reverses, then it could be problematic for equities."Along with CPI, a Wednesday report on producer prices could also reveal impacts from import tariffs. Last month's PPI data showed US producer prices increased by the most in three years in July as the costs of goods and services surged. Tariffs and their economic implications were the main risk facing markets earlier this year, but other factors such as questions over Fed independence and caution about the artificial intelligence trade have been more prominent recently.The issue returned to the fore this week after a US appeals court ruled that most of President Donald Trump's tariffs are illegal. While the Trump administration has asked the US Supreme Court to hear a bid to preserve the sweeping tariffs, the ruling injected fresh uncertainty for markets."It felt as though the fog of trade war was clearing, and now we're just back into the thick of it," Hogan said. "And that doesn't help corporate America make decisions, consumers make decisions, and investors make decisions."The potential of lost tariff revenue exacerbating the US fiscal deficit was one factor investors said may have driven long-dated US government debt yields sharply higher at the start of the week, moves that also followed big jumps in yields in the UK and other regions. While long-dated yields globally have since calmed, their spikes were cited as contributing to stock weakness initially during the week.The 30-year US Treasury yield this week hit 5% for the first time in over a month. That yield level has been "problematic" for risk appetite over the past few years, said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial. The long-bond yield was last around 4.78%, with yields falling broadly on Friday after the jobs data.The S&P 500 was up about 10% so far in 2025, helped recently by a solid second-quarter earnings season. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio climbed to 22.4 times, based on earnings estimates for the next 12 months, a valuation well above its long-term average of 15.9, according to LSEG Datastream."Investors face ongoing threats from trade and tariff unknowns as well as potential economic releases that could ultimately challenge elevated stock valuations," Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, wrote in a commentary."That said, investors have been navigating those dynamics for months, and stocks have continued to grind higher."

India will roll out a package of measures to help exporters hurt by a surge in US tariffs, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.The new US duties slapped on Indian goods last month included a 25% punitive levy over New Delhi’s Russian oil purchases - taking overall duties as high as 50% on a wide range of items from garments and jewellery to footwear and chemicals."The government will come out with something to handhold those who have been hit by 50% tariffs," Sitharaman told CNBC TV18, without going into further detail.The government plans to offer credit guarantees on loans overdue by up to 90 days for small businesses and exporters, Reuters reported earlier, citing government sources.Exporters said labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, jewellery and seafood, particularly shrimp - which all operate on margins of just 3%-5% - have been hit hardest, causing job losses in industrial hubs in Tamil Nadu and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat."Textiles and apparel manufacturers in Tiruppur, Noida and Surat have halted production amid worsening cost competitiveness," S C Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), said.The tariffs, among the highest imposed by the administration of US President Donald Trump, delivered a serious blow to ties between the two powerful democracies that had in recent decades become strategic partners.Nearly 55% of Indian exports to the US, worth about $48bn, now face a cost disadvantage against rivals from Vietnam, China and Bangladesh, Ralhan said last week ahead of an exporters' meeting with the finance minister.Thousands of workers have already been laid off, exporters have said.

Eurozone factory activity expanded for the first time since mid-2022 as domestic demand offset the impact from US tariffs while the Asian manufacturing sector saw shrinkage, private surveys showed Monday.There were mixed signals over the Chinese economy, however, as one such survey unexpectedly indicated modest expansion, contradicting an official readout the day before which showed activity continuing to shrink. Export powerhouses Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all saw manufacturing activity shrink in August, underscoring the challenge Asia faces in weathering the hit from sharply higher trade barriers erected by US President Donald Trump. In Europe, Greece and Spain led factory growth while manufacturing in Germany, the bloc's largest economy, shrank albeit at a slower pace.The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to an over-three-year high of 50.7 in August from 49.8 in July, surpassing the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction."The recovery is real but remains fragile. Inventory levels continue to decline, and the slightly accelerated drop in order backlogs shows that companies are still suffering from uncertainty," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. "Domestic orders have risen and are offsetting the weakening demand from abroad. In fact, the best remedy against US tariffs may be to strengthen domestic demand."Meanwhile, manufacturing in Germany rose to a 38-month high of 49.8, a whisker away from the 50 mark, offering hope for the economy that shrank 0.3% last quarter on slowing demand from its top trading partner the US.The EU and the US struck a framework trade deal in late July but only the baseline tariff of 15% has so far been implemented. In Britain, outside the European Union, factory activity suffered a fresh setback in August after signs of a recovery due to worries about trade tensions and tax increases at home.The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49.7 in August, improving from 48.9 in July but staying below the 50 threshold for two straight months.South Korea's factory activity also shrank with the S&P Global PMI standing at 48.3 in August, up from 48.0 in July but contracting for the seventh straight month.Both countries struck a trade deal with the US that eased, but not removed, the pressure on their export-reliant economies."It's a double-whammy for Asian economies, as they face higher US tariffs and competition from cheap Chinese exports," said Toru Nishihama, chief emerging market economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "We'll likely see the hit from US tariffs intensify going forward, with countries reliant on U.S.-bound shipments like Thailand and South Korea particularly vulnerable," he said.However, the RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, unexpectedly rose to 50.5 in August from 49.5 in July, exceeding the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. The reading confounds an official survey on Sunday that showed activity shrank for a fifth straight month on weak domestic demand and uncertainty over the outcome of Beijing's trade deal with the USHalf-way through the month Trump extended his tariff truce with China for another 90 days, withholding imposition of three-digit duties until November 10.Meanwhile, India, which grew at a much better-than-expected 7.8% in the last quarter, continued to be a significant outlier in the region. Manufacturing activity in Asia's third-largest economy expanded at its fastest pace in more than 17 years in August.But the Trump administration's steep 50% tariff on US imports of Indian goods like garments, gems and jewellery threatens to dampen growth in the coming quarters.

Second-quarter GDP growth upgraded to 3.3% paceInvestment in AI, consumer spending drive upward revisionWeekly jobless claims fall 5,000 to 229,000The US economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter, in part driven by business investment in intellectual property such as artificial intelligence, but tariffs on imports continued to cloud the outlook.The upgrade to gross domestic product reported by the Commerce Department on Thursday also reflected upward revisions to consumer spending as well as business investment in equipment. That resulted in a measure of underlying domestic demand also being revised higher. With the Federal Reserve focused on a softening labour market, economists expected the US central bank to resume cutting interest rates next month."I doubt this moves the needle for the Fed, but at the margin, these revisions work against the case for urgency to cut rates," said Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander US Capital Markets.GDP increased at a 3.3% annualised rate last quarter, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said in its second estimate. The economy was initially reported to have grown at a 3.0% pace in the second quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be raised to a 3.1% rate.The economy contracted at a 0.5% pace in the January-March quarter, which was the first GDP decline in three years.The manner in which President Donald Trump's administration has implemented the tariffs, including escalations and 90-day pauses, has muddied the waters, making it challenging to parse economic data. A front-loading of imports as businesses rushed to beat the duties pulled down GDP in the first quarter before snapping back as the flow of foreign merchandise ebbed.Neither first- nor second-quarter GDP readings are a true reflection of the economy's health because of the wild swings in imports. To get a better read of the economy, economists are focusing on the final sales to private domestic purchasers measure, which excludes trade, inventories and government spending.This measure, also viewed by policymakers as a barometer of underlying economic growth, increased at an upwardly revised 1.9% pace last quarter, matching the first quarter's pace.Domestic demand was initially estimated to have grown at a 1.2% rate. The revision reflected upgrades to consumer spending, the economy's main engine, which is now estimated to have increased at a 1.6% rate. That was up from the previously reported 1.4% pace.Business spending on intellectual property products grew at a 12.8% rate, double the initially estimated 6.4% pace."Investment related to AI is helping mask some of the weakness elsewhere in the economy, but the good news is that there is little sign that this support is set to fade anytime soon," said Ryan Sweet, chief economist at Oxford Economics.Growth in business investment in equipment was upgraded to a 7.4% pace from the 4.8% rate estimated last month.Still, economists expect a lacklustre second half, which would limit economic growth to about 1.5% for the full year because of tariffs. That reading would be down from 2.8% in 2024.The BEA also reported that profits from current production with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments rebounded $65.5bn last quarter. Profits decreased $90.6bn in the January-March period.But further increases are likely to be hampered by Trump's protectionist trade policy, which has raised the nation's average import duty to its highest level in a century, inflicting pain on companies ranging from retailers to manufacturers.Caterpillar this month warned tariffs could cost the economic bellwether up to $1.5bn this year.In July, General Motors' second-quarter earnings took a $1.1bn hit from the duties and the automaker anticipated more pain in the third quarter. Clothing retailer Abercrombie & Fitch on Wednesday warned that higher tariffs on countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia and India would increase costs by $90mn this year.Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week signalled a possible interest rate cut at the central bank's September 16-17 policy meeting, in a nod to rising labour market risks, but also added that inflation remained a threat.The Fed has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December.News on the labour market remained mixed, with a report from the Labor Department showing initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 229,000 for the week ended August 23. The labour market is stuck in a no-hire, no-fire mode due to tariffs.The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, fell 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.954mn during the week ending August 16, the claims report showed. The so-called continuing claims data covered the week during which the government surveyed households for August's unemployment rate.Continuing claims rose slightly between the July and August survey weeks, leaving some economists expecting the unemployment rate will rise to 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July.

Africa has become a new hotspot for Chinese exports as Donald Trump’s tariffs redraw trade for the world’s biggest manufacturing nation.With a 25% on-year jump to $122bn, growth in sales to the continent of 1.5bn people has far outpaced other major markets this year while orders from the US slumped. China’s exports to Africa so far in 2025 are more than in the whole of 2020 and on track to exceed $200bn for the first time.Although the trading relationship shows no sign of becoming less lopsided, with China running a far wider surplus with Africa than last year, Beijing is cracking open its domestic market while seizing on the chance to meet the continent’s infrastructure needs.“Chinese exporters have done a genuinely impressive job of diversifying into emerging markets in recent years, including in Africa,” said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics. “The weaker yuan this year has probably also made Chinese exports more competitive in African countries.” The trade war has supercharged a boom that was years in the making, spearheaded by President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative unveiled in 2013. And as Chinese companies snapped up contracts to build everything from railways to industrial parks across the continent, the demand for the machinery and materials to complete these projects followed this year.Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt are the biggest African buyers of Chinese products. Construction machinery was among China’s fastest growing exports to Africa in the first seven months, surging 63% year on year.Shipments of passenger cars more than doubled from a year earlier and some steel products expanded in high double digits. At the same time, Africa’s share of China’s total exports remains modest at about 6%, roughly half the level for the US.Some goods destined for the US are possibly being diverted through Africa, according to Gavekal’s Beddor, a tactic known as transshipment.Rising protectionism in Washington has given extra incentive for Africa to buy from Beijing. A number of goods from more than 30 nations on the continent that had duty-free access to American markets granted under the African Growth and Opportunity Act are now being subjected to a range of tariffs by the Trump administration.In the first half of 2025 alone, Africa inked $30.5bn in construction contracts with China, according to a July report from Griffith University in Australia and the Green Finance & Development Center, founded at Shanghai-based Fudan University. That’s five times the amount during the same period last year and the most among all regions included in Xi’s infrastructure initiative.And in a counterpoint to Trump, Xi said in June that China is removing levies on imports from all African nations with which it has diplomatic ties.During the same month, the government in Beijing allowed imports of agricultural products from Ethiopia, Congo, Gambia, and Malawi, bringing to 19 the number of African countries with access to China’s market.In Africa, China could bring know-how and its vast industrial machine to a continent struggling with costly logistics and held back by its patchy infrastructure, with less than half of the population having reliable electricity access.African nations have been ordering more solar panels from China, with imports of the clean-energy technology surging 60% in the 12 months through June, according to climate think tank Ember. Over the last two years, purchases of Chinese solar panels to the continent beyond South Africa have tripled, Ember said in a report this week.“Energy resources remain unevenly distributed in Africa, with some nations heavily reliant on imports” like oil, said Zhou Mi, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a think tank under the Ministry of Commerce.“Alternatives offered by China, such as solar and wind power as well as electric cars, can help African countries overcome energy bottlenecks, prompting them to increase imports from the country in pursuit of energy independence and economic development,” he said.Affordability is another factor working in China’s favour. Despite higher demand, prices for 14 out of the 18 major Chinese goods shipped to Africa actually fell on a yearly basis in the January-July period, with transformers and converters posting the deepest decline of 39%.China is also bringing financial muscle to the continent with the world’s fastest-growing population, often in the form of backing from state-owned banks. Only in recent months, China Development Bank released a €245mn ($286mn) first tranche of funding for a railway project in Nigeria and extended a loan for infrastructure construction in Egypt.Although most of the commodities imported from Africa to China are priced in dollars, the expanding trade footprint will probably help the yuan make inroads in corporate and government balance sheets.Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt are among the four countries on the continent that already have bilateral currency swaps with the central bank in Beijing — a list that includes Mauritius. Kenya has announced it’s in talks to convert some dollar-denominated loans to yuan to help ease the strain of debt.“China obviously benefits from greater use of its currency in the financial system – so that’s the incentive to offer preferential terms if they swap currency debt,” said David Omojomolo, Africa economist at Capital Economics. “I do expect heavily exposed countries to China in terms of debt like Angola will perhaps follow Kenya’s lead on this yuan swap if it’s pulled off.”Chinese goods barred or resisted elsewhere are meanwhile receiving little pushback in Africa. Exports of steel and iron components — used to build bridges, towers and scaffolding — climbed 43%.Sales of batteries spiked 41%, and transformers and converters, including inverters that adapt electricity from solar panels and wind systems to power home appliances and industrial equipment, soared nearly 25%.For now, China has yet to encounter the kind of backlash seen from countries around the world that fear the flood of cheaper goods. But it’s a risk in a region already worried about falling further into debt to China, especially if the exports begin to crowd out local producers.But Beijing will tread carefully since the continent is critical as a source of key commodities and a growth market for its companies. What’s more, it’s become a central arena for China’s aspirations on the world stage.“Africa is where China takes its firms and brands global — they get experience, create markets, and win brand recognition,” said Lauren Johnston, a China-Africa expert of New South Economics, a consultancy in Melbourne. “It is important for China’s global development leadership push.”

India saved $17bn by ramping up Russian oil imports, say analystsTrump’s new tariffs of up to 50% could slash Indian exports to US by $37bnLabour-heavy sectors like textiles, gems, and jewellery face major job lossesIndia open to buying more US energy but won’t abandon Russia entirelyIndia saved billions of dollars by stepping up imports of discounted Russian oil in the wake of the war in Ukraine, but punitive tariffs imposed by the US that came into effect Wednesday will quickly undo the gains, with no easy solutions in sight.Analysts estimate India has saved at least $17bn by increasing oil imports from Russia since early 2022. US President Donald Trump's decision to impose additional tariffs of up to 50% on Indian imports could slash exports by more than 40%, or nearly $37bn, this April-March fiscal year alone, according to New Delhi think-tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).The fallout from the tariffs will be lingering, and could be politically debilitating for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with thousands of jobs at risk in labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems, and jewellery. India's response in the coming weeks could reshape its decades-old partnership with Russia and recalibrate its increasingly complex ties with the US, a relationship Washington sees as vital to countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, analysts said."India needs Russia for defence equipment for several more years, cheap oil when available, geopolitical support in the continental space and political backing on sensitive matters," said Happymon Jacob, the founder of Delhi's Council for Strategic and Defence Research. "That makes Russia an invaluable partner for India."But he added: "Despite the difficulties between Delhi and Washington under Trump, the United States continues to be India’s most important strategic partner. India simply doesn’t have the luxury of choosing one over the other, at least not yet."Two Indian government sources said New Delhi wants to repair ties with Washington and is open to increasing purchases of US energy but is reluctant to fully halt Russian oil imports. Discussions with the US are ongoing, India’s foreign secretary told reporters on Tuesday, with officials from both countries holding virtual talks on trade, energy security including nuclear cooperation, and critical minerals exploration.Russian crude now accounts for nearly 40% of India’s total oil purchases from nearly nothing before the war, and analysts say any immediate stoppage would not only signal capitulation under pressure but also be economically unfeasible. Indian purchases are led by billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries , which operates the world's largest refining complex in Modi's home state of Gujarat.Global crude prices could more than triple to around $200 a barrel if India, the world’s third-largest oil consumer and importer, stops buying oil from Russia, according to internal Indian government estimates reviewed by Reuters. It would also lose the up to 7% discount Russian oil offers compared to global benchmarks. In an unusually sharp statement this month, India accused the US of double standards in singling it out for Russian oil imports while itself continuing to buy Russian uranium hexafluoride, palladium and fertiliser. New Delhi says other countries that have stepped up purchases of Russian oil, like China, have not been penalised. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has accused India of profiteering from its sharply increased purchases of Russian oil and called it unacceptable. He told CNBC in an interview last week that unlike India's surge in Russian oil imports after the start of the war in Ukraine, China's purchases had increased to 16% from 13%. India's foreign ministry has said its crude imports from Russia are "meant to ensure predictable and affordable energy costs to the Indian consumer. They are a necessity compelled by the global market situation".New Delhi warns that halting Russian oil imports, which is currently around 2mn barrels per day, would disrupt its entire supply chain and send domestic fuel prices soaring. It has said the previous US administration under Joe Biden had backed its purchases of Russian oil to keep global prices stable. Russia has said it expects India to keep buying oil from it.Modi has not directly commented on the tariffs but has repeatedly pledged support for India’s farmers — seen as a veiled response to Trump’s demands to open up India’s vast agricultural sector.Farmers are a key voting bloc, and Modi faces a tough election in the rural state of Bihar later this year. He has also pledged major cuts in a goods and services tax by October to lift domestic demand.In a flurry of diplomatic activity aimed at multipolarity, senior Indian officials have travelled to Russia in recent days, while Modi is set to visit China this month for the first time in over seven years. India-China relations began thawing about a year ago, following a deadly border clash in 2020. Modi is expected to meet both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a summit meeting starting on Sunday of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a regional security bloc. But the sources said India is still very cautious in its relations with China and not yet considering a trilateral summit between the three leaders, as hoped by Russia.Other countries could take their cue from how India reacts to the US tariffs, experts said."The key takeaway for other countries is that if India — an emerging major economic and military power — is under immense pressure from the US, they might have even less capacity to withstand American pressure," said Jacob, the analyst."Additionally, some might interpret the current dynamics as indicating that China could potentially serve as a counterbalance, especially given Trump’s unpredictable and aggressive geopolitical moves." International relations experts say Trump's recent moves have plunged the US-India relationship back to possibly its worst phase since the US imposed sanctions on India for nuclear weapons tests in 1998. Besides trade, the row could affect other areas like work visas for Indian tech professionals and offshoring of services.And even if India is able to eventually get some of the tariffs reversed, several consequences will linger, especially in trade."Competitors like China, Vietnam, Mexico, Turkiye, and even Pakistan, Nepal, Guatemala, and Kenya stand to gain, potentially locking India out of key markets even after tariffs are rolled back," said GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava, a former Indian trade official.