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Travel demand in the US is unlikely to catch up to international growth in the near future, the head of the leading global aviation association said at the Singapore Airshow.“Expected growth in the US market is lower than the global average,” International Air Transport Association Director General Willie Walsh said in a Bloomberg TV interview on Tuesday.Demand will grow by 4.9% around the world while remaining “broadly flat” in the US, and the organisation expects that trend to last beyond 2026, he said.Consolidation, focus on domestic travel even as it stagnates, a shortage in aircraft and problems in the supply chain affecting major US airlines contributed to stagnation in the American market, Walsh said.Global airlines stand to earn a record $41bn this year, with Europe contributing the most as US carriers grapple with fallout from tariffs, tighter immigration enforcement and heightened geopolitical tensions.Walsh also said he has faith in aviation regulators to operate without intervention, after President Donald Trump threatened to decertify planes made in Canada over certification of Gulfstream jets.“It creates noise in the background, but I have full confidence in both the professionals at the FAA and in safety regulators in other parts of the world, and I don’t believe politics will interfere in that,” he said.Trump last week said he’d apply a 50% tariff to planes made in Canada and strip them of globally recognised safety permits. He complained Ottawa hasn’t yet approved certain jets made by Gulfstream, a unit of General Dynamics Corp, that have already been certified by the Federal Aviation Administration. 

By 2025, global travel demand is no longer a surprise. What is striking is not that people are travelling in large numbers, but where that demand is concentrating and how consistently aviation has managed to absorb it. Passenger volumes are high, sustained, and increasingly predictable in their peaks. The industry’s challenge today is not stimulating demand, but managing it efficiently across a network that is under constant pressure.The world’s busiest travel destinations this year are shaped by a combination of tourism strength, economic gravity, diaspora flows, and hub connectivity. In many cases, aviation has adapted well. In others, the stress points are becoming clearer, not because airlines lack aircraft or ambition, but because infrastructure, airspace, and labour are finite.Europe remains one of the most heavily trafficked regions, but the pattern of demand has evolved. London, Paris, Rome, Barcelona, and Amsterdam continue to dominate international flows, yet they now operate in a permanently constrained environment. Heathrow’s traffic volumes are consistently high across the year, not just during summer peaks. Airlines have adjusted by prioritising higher-density aircraft, carefully timed banks, and slot-efficient scheduling. Growth exists, but it is incremental, squeezed into margins rather than expanded wholesale.Southern Europe is where the pressure is most visible. Spain and Italy are among the busiest leisure markets of 2025, with Madrid, Barcelona, Rome, and Milan supported by a constellation of secondary airports handling unprecedented volumes. Málaga, Alicante, Palma de Mallorca, Venice, Naples, and Florence are all operating at or near seasonal capacity for extended periods. Aviation has responded pragmatically: upgauging aircraft, extending operating hours, and redistributing demand into shoulder seasons where possible. The constraint is no longer airlift, but airport throughput and local tolerance for visitor density.In the Middle East, demand patterns reflect the region’s role as a global connector combined with a growing ability to generate point-to-point traffic. Doha stands out not because of sheer scale, but because of operational control. Hamad International Airport continues to handle a high proportion of connecting passengers while steadily increasing inbound tourism volumes. The airport’s single-terminal design and coordinated airline scheduling allow it to manage growth without the congestion seen at older hubs. Qatar’s success in converting transfer traffic into stopover and destination demand has added resilience, reducing dependence on pure transit flows.Istanbul occupies a different position. It is both a destination and a hub, and its growth reflects that dual role. Turkish Airlines’ expansive network continues to funnel traffic from Africa, Central Asia, and secondary European cities through Istanbul Airport. The airport’s scale allows it to absorb growth that would overwhelm smaller hubs, though peak-hour congestion is becoming more visible. Aviation has coped well so far, but future growth will depend on airspace efficiency and continued coordination between airport and airline.Asia-Pacific presents some of the most intense demand concentrations of 2025. Bangkok remains one of the busiest leisure destinations in the world, with passenger volumes driven by short-haul regional travel and long-haul arrivals from Europe and North America. Tokyo has seen sustained international traffic, particularly from the United States, as premium leisure and business travel remains strong. Singapore continues to function as a high-efficiency hub, balancing transit flows with destination demand through tight slot management and consistent service standards.India is one of the most consequential markets shaping global aviation this year. Delhi and Mumbai are experiencing relentless demand across domestic and international segments, driven by economic growth, diaspora travel, and expanding long-haul connectivity. Aviation has largely kept pace through higher frequencies, larger aircraft, and the gradual emergence of international services from secondary Indian cities. Infrastructure expansion is underway, but demand continues to test the system, particularly during peak travel windows.In North America, the busiest destinations are less about tourism concentration and more about network gravity. New York, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Dallas, and Chicago continue to dominate passenger flows, while leisure-heavy markets such as Orlando, Las Vegas, and Miami sustain high volumes year-round. The US aviation system has managed demand through scale, but reliability remains a concern, driven by air traffic control shortages and weather-related disruptions. The issue is not capacity in the air, but consistency on the ground and in the airspace.Latin America is experiencing steady growth without the same degree of congestion seen elsewhere. Mexico City, Cancún, São Paulo, and Bogotá are handling increased volumes from North America and Europe, while secondary cities are appearing more frequently on long-haul route maps. Aviation here has adapted through measured expansion, balancing demand with infrastructure limitations and economic volatility.What unites these markets is not uniform growth, but concentrated demand. Passengers are travelling in large numbers to a relatively small set of global cities and regions. Aviation has responded with flexibility rather than brute expansion. Airlines are deploying long-range narrowbodies to serve thinner long-haul markets, allowing capacity to be right-sized. Airports are investing in automation, biometric processing, and redesigned passenger flows to increase throughput without physical expansion.On the whole, aviation has coped better than many expected. Aircraft availability has improved, airline planning has become more data-driven, and network design is increasingly sophisticated. The real constraints now lie outside the airline balance sheet. Runways, airspace, staffing, and political approval processes define how far growth can go.The busiest travel destinations of 2025 illustrate an industry operating close to its limits, but not beyond them. Demand is immense, sustained, and geographically concentrated. Aviation has adapted not by chasing volume indiscriminately, but by optimising what already exists. The next phase will depend less on adding flights and more on how intelligently the system manages where people want to go.The author is an aviation analyst. X handle: @AlexInAir. 

Air travel has never been more global, yet some of the most obvious city pairs still have no non-stop flights. These gaps persist not because demand is weak, but because distance, aircraft performance, economics, and geopolitics still shape which routes airlines are willing to fly. Some of the world’s most heavily travelled long-haul flows remain entirely one-stop. Others, long ignored, have recently been connected for the first time — and often with immediate success.“Unserved” does not mean “unused”. Many of these city pairs move hundreds of passengers a day via Doha, Dubai, Istanbul, London, Singapore, or Los Angeles. What they lack is a nonstop operation that can be sustained year-round at a commercially acceptable margin. In some cases, the aircraft exist but the risk appetite does not. In others, geopolitical realities or bilateral restrictions make the route impossible. And in many cases, the demand exists but is too fragmented across seasons to support a single ultralong-haul aircraft tied up for 16-18 hours.One of the clearest examples is Cairo–Los Angeles. Egypt and the United States have strong tourism flows, a sizeable diaspora, and rising business links. Yet there is still no nonstop between Cairo and LAX. Passengers instead travel through Europe or the Gulf on itineraries that stretch to 18 hours or more. The issue is not the absence of passengers, but the absence of year-round premium demand that could support the cost of deploying an A350 or 777 on such a long mission.London–Canberra is another intriguing gap. The UK and Australia have never been closer in aviation terms; Qantas now flies nonstop from London to Perth. Yet the national capital, Canberra, still has no direct link to London. Canberra’s runway length, altitude, and relatively modest local catchment limit its viability for an ultralong-haul operation. Sydney is nearby, and passengers overwhelmingly connect through there instead, making point-to-point Canberra a difficult commercial proposition.Asia to South America is full of large unserved flows. Tokyo–Lima is a prime example. The Japanese-Peruvian community is substantial, and trade between the two countries has grown. But the route is too far for current aircraft to operate nonstop without severe payload penalties. Travellers route through the United States or Mexico, adding hours to the trip.India also has significant long-haul gaps. São Paulo–Delhi stands out as one of the most important missing connections between two major emerging-market economies. The traffic exists, but it is fragmented across Europe, the Gulf, and Africa. No airline has yet found the right combination of aircraft, schedule, and connecting feed to justify the nonstop. Mumbai–Los Angeles is another example. Despite the strong commercial and cultural ties between India and the West Coast of the United States, the route remains unserved. It is within the range of the 777-200LR or A350-900, but ultralong-haul flights require consistently strong premium demand, and Indian carriers have historically focused on more established long-haul markets.In Southeast Asia, Jakarta–Los Angeles remains one of the most obvious missing nonstops. Indonesia is the region’s largest economy, and Los Angeles is a major gateway for Pacific Rim travel. Yet carriers still route passengers through Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, or the Gulf because no airline has the right long-haul fleet mix or network structure to support a dedicated service.While some major gaps remain, the last decade has seen formerly unserved routes become commercially viable for the first time. Technology, network sophistication, and changing demand patterns have created new possibilities.New York–Auckland is perhaps the clearest example. For years, the route was dismissed as too far and too thin. Today, both Air New Zealand and Qantas operate it with modern long-range aircraft, supported by a combination of premium leisure traffic and strong connecting markets at both ends.Perth–London went through a similar evolution. The idea of a nonstop “Kangaroo Route” was discussed for decades, but only became feasible when Qantas deployed the 787-9 in a low-density configuration and invested in connecting flows via Perth. The route has become one of the airline’s most successful long-haul launches.Doha–Auckland, one of the world’s longest commercial flights, redefined what a Gulf hub could support. Qatar Airways connected New Zealand directly to a vast network spanning Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia. By aggregating multiple mid-sized flows rather than relying solely on point-to-point traffic, the airline turned a theoretical route into a consistent performer.Africa has also seen long-ignored routes return. Lagos–Washington Dulles sat unserved for years, with travellers connecting through Europe or the Middle East. United Airlines has now launched a nonstop service, demonstrating how a strong hub on the US side can make West Africa more accessible without a stop. Meanwhile, São Paulo–Johannesburg, withdrawn when South African Airways restructured, has been relaunched by LATAM, restoring a direct link between South America and southern Africa.These examples show how quickly the map can change once aircraft technology improves and an airline with the right network sees an opportunity. The A350, 787, and 777-200LR have opened possibilities that were once beyond reach. The next generation — including the A350-900ULR variants and long-range narrowbodies — will push the limits further.But the world’s unserved routes persist for reasons that technology alone cannot solve. Geography matters. Ultralong-haul flights tie up expensive aircraft for long periods, magnifying the financial impact of any delay or operational disruption. Demand profiles matter too. Many of the world’s largest indirect markets have strong economy-class flows but weaker year-round premium yields, which makes nonstop service unviable. And geopolitics can be decisive; airspace restrictions in Russia or parts of the Middle East add hours of flying time and alter the economics of east–west long-hauls.Many of today’s major unserved routes will eventually launch as aircraft improve and markets mature. Others may remain one-stop indefinitely, not because of a lack of desire from travellers, but because even the most advanced aircraft cannot change the underlying economics of global aviation.The author is an aviation analyst. X handle: @AlexInAir. 

Beyond the TarmacAn improvement in both passenger and cargo volumes in the global air transport industry during July suggests renewed economic momentum, stronger global trade, and growing travel demand clear signs of resilience and confidence in the global air transport sector.Data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) revealed global passenger demand measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), was up 4% in July compared to the same period in 2024.Similarly, total demand in global air cargo, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), rose by 5.5% in July compared to July 2024 levels.Industry analysts see increased passenger and cargo activity in July reflecting restored international mobility, expansion of route networks, and better global connectivity between markets.In the passenger segment, the July load factor was 85.5% (-0.4 ppt compared to July 2024).International demand rose 5.3% in July compared to July, 2024. Capacity was up 5.8% year-on-year, and the load factor was 85.6% (-0.4 ppt compared to July 2024).Domestic demand increased 1.8% in July compared to the same month in 2024. Capacity was up 2.3% year-on-year. The load factor was 85.2% (-0.4 ppt compared to July 2024).In the global air cargo segment, capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), increased by 3.9% compared to July 2024 (+4.5% for international operations).IATA Director General Willie Walsh noted, “Air cargo demand grew 5.5% in July, a strong result. Most major trade lanes reported growth, with one significant exception: Asia–North America, where demand was down 1.0% year-on-year.“A sharp decline in e-commerce, as the US 'de minimis' exemptions on small shipments expired, was likely offset by shippers frontloading goods in advance of rising tariffs for imports to the US. August will likely reveal more clearly the impact of shifting US trade policies.“While much attention is rightly being focused on developments in markets connected to the US, it is important to keep a broad perspective on the global network. A fifth of air cargo travels on the Europe–Asia trade lane, which marked 29 months of consecutive expansion with 13.5% year-on-year growth in July.”According to IATA, several factors in the operating environment should be noted.First, the global goods trade grew by 3.1% year-on-year in June.The July jet fuel price was 9.1% lower year-on-year and has remained below 2024 levels so far this year, easing airlines’ operating costs. However, it was 4.3% higher than in June.Global manufacturing contracted in July with the PMI falling to 49.66, the second dip below the 50-mark growth threshold since January.Also, new export orders also remained negative at 48.2 for the fourth month, reflecting waning confidence amid US trade policy uncertainty.“It has been a good northern summer season for airlines. Momentum has grown over the peak season with July demand reaching 4% growth. That trend appears across all regions and is particularly evident for international travel, which strengthened from 3.9% growth in June to 5.3% in July. Moreover, with flight volumes showing a 2% year-on-year increase for September after five months of decelerating growth, airlines are positioned to take advantage of this market momentum into the coming months,” Walsh noted.Rising cargo volumes typically reflect growth in international trade, manufacturing, and supply chain demand. Passenger growth points to higher consumer confidence, business travel recovery, and robust tourism.July is usually a peak travel season in the Northern Hemisphere, but stronger-than-usual growth suggests that the industry may be moving beyond past slowdowns triggered by pandemic aftereffects, geopolitical disruptions, or supply chain constraints.Sustained improvements in both segments signal that stakeholders (governments, investors, airports, and logistics firms) see the industry on a stable growth trajectory, supporting investment and fleet expansion.Clearly, the improvement in passenger and cargo volumes in July highlights a rebound in the global air transport industry. Higher passenger traffic reflects strong travel demand, while increased cargo volumes point to healthy global trade flows.The dual rise in passengers and cargo confirms that the industry is on a path of resilience and long-term growth, supported by both consumer demand and global economic activity.Together, they indicate renewed economic momentum, rising consumer and business confidence, and a continued recovery in international connectivity.