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Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production hasn’t scaled fast enough to the optimum level the industry and climate goals require — even though SAF is widely seen as a key tool for reducing aviation emissions.SAF production has grown substantially from very low levels, but it still represents only a tiny fraction of total jet fuel demand globally.Currently, SAF production is well under 1% of the total jet fuel demand and expected to fall short of long-term targets.SAF production growth is projected to slow down and reach 2.4mn tons in 2026 as poorly designed mandates seem to have stalled momentum in the fledgling SAF industry.In 2025, SAF output is expected to reach 1.9mn tonnes, double the 1mn tons produced in 2024.SAF production this year represents only 0.6% of total jet fuel consumption, increasing to 0.8% in 2026, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).At current price levels, the SAF premium translates into an additional $3.6bn in fuel costs for the industry in 2025.The estimated SAF output for 2025 of 1.9mn tons is a downward revision from IATA’s earlier forecasts due to lack of policy support to take full advantage of the installed SAF capacities.SAF prices exceed fossil-based jet fuel by a factor of two, and by up to a factor of five in mandated markets.IATA Director General Willie Walsh noted, “SAF production growth fell short of expectations as poorly designed mandates stalled momentum in the fledgling SAF industry. If the goal of SAF mandates was to slow progress and increase prices, policymakers knocked it out of the park.“But if the objective is to increase SAF production to further the decarbonisation of aviation, then they need to learn from failure and work with the airline industry to design incentives that will work.”The cumulative impact of poorly designed policy frameworks is that airlines paid a premium of $2.9bn for the limited 1.9mn tons of SAF available in 2025. Of this, $1.4bn reflects the standard SAF price premium over conventional fuel.“Europe’s fragmented policies distort markets, slow investment, and undermine efforts to scale SAF production. Europe’s regulators must recognise that its approach is not working and urgently correct course. The recent European Commission STIP announcement is a step forward though it lacks a clear timeline. Actions, not words, are what matter,” said Walsh.The failure to accelerate the expansion of SAF production capacity will cause many airlines to review their own SAF targets.“Regrettably, many airlines that have committed to use 10% SAF by 2030 will be forced to reevaluate these commitments. SAF is not being produced in sufficient amounts to enable these airlines to achieve their ambition. These commitments were made in good faith but simply cannot be delivered,” said Walsh.EU's STIP (Sustainable Transport Investment Plan) announcement in aviation, unveiled in November, is a €2.9bn strategic plan to accelerate investment in renewable and low-carbon fuels (like SAFs) to meet its decarbonisation targetsIndustry analysts say SAF is much more expensive than conventional jet fuel — typically 2–5 times higher per unit. This price gap makes airlines hesitant to buy large amounts because they operate on very slim profit margins.Many producers struggle to make SAF financially viable without long-term contracts or government incentives. Airlines often don’t commit to large long-term purchase agreements, which in turn makes financiers and producers reluctant to invest in scaling up capacity.Traditional SAF pathways like Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids or HEFA (from used cooking oil and animal fats) rely on limited feedstocks that are also used in other industries (like road biofuels). The global availability of these sustainable feedstocks is constrained.Alternative feedstocks such as agricultural residues, municipal solid waste or algae have potential, but require new logistics, processing technologies, and infrastructure — which are not yet mature or widely deployed, analysts point out.SAF production isn’t scaling optimally yet because of various economic, technical, logistical, regulatory, and supply-chain barriers.The industry is still emerging from very low starting levels, and while capacity is growing, it remains too small and too costly vis-a-vis the global jet fuel market. 

Beyond the TarmacAirlines are estimated to need 500mn tonnes (Mt) of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to achieve the industry’s goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.This can be achieved from two main sources- biomass and power-to-liquid, according to the International Air Transport Association.Biomass has the potential to produce more than 300Mt of bio-SAF annually by 2050. Some of this potential could be limited by use for competing sources. This potential could be expanded by unlocking additional feedstocks or through efficiency gains and technology improvements over intervening decades.Power-to-liquid (PtL) will be required to reach 500 Mt of SAF production annually by 2050. Maximising the volumes of cost-effective bio-SAF will reduce the pressure on e-SAF to bridge the gap.In all cases, to maximise SAF output, it will be essential to improve conversion efficiencies, accelerate technology rollout, enhance feedstock logistics, and invest in better infrastructure required to scale up commercial facilities across all regions.Recently, IATA in partnership with Worley Consulting, has published a study demonstrating that sufficient sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) feedstock exists to enable the airline industry to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050.All feedstocks considered meet stringent sustainability criteria and do not lead to changes in land use.The study also identified significant barriers in using that feedstock for SAF production, namely the slow pace of technology rollout that would enable SAF to be produced from varied sources and competition with other potential users of the same feedstock.Currently, the only commercially scaled SAF production facilities use HEFA technology, for example converting used cooking oil into SAF.Policies allocating biomass feedstock to hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation must be prioritised.According to the report, there are sufficient sustainable feedstocks and SAF production technologies to decarbonise aviation and meet the net zero carbon emissions goal by 2050.With the right policies and investments, more than 300Mt of SAF from biomass feedstocks could be produced annually by mid-century and around 200Mt from e-SAF.Enhancing the feedstock supply chain infrastructure, scaling up novel sources that meet sustainability criteria, and ensuring that the feedstocks identified for SAF production are made available to the air transport industry remain a major challenge.Other major challenges, according to IATA, are: Accelerating technology rollout to unlock new SAF production technologies, especially PtL, including reliable access to the low-cost renewable electricity, hydrogen, and carbon capture infrastructure, which are all required as part of the PtL production method.Achieving coordinated government policies to support innovation, and investment to create a fully functioning SAF market, unlocking new economic opportunities.Rallying regional leadership, with North America, Brazil, Europe, India, China, and Asean identified as key drivers of global SAF output.Activating the energy industry to invest in SAF production capacity, support technology commercialisation, and align their business strategies with global decarbonisation goals.IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh said: “We now have unequivocal evidence that if SAF production is prioritised then feedstock availability is not a barrier in the industry’s path to decarbonisation.“There is enough potential feedstock from sustainable sources to reach net zero carbon emissions in 2050. However, this will only be accomplished with a major acceleration of the SAF industry’s growth. We need shovels in the ground now.”“With this study it becomes clear that we can make SAF the solution it needs to be for aviation’s decarbonisation. The potential to turn SAF feedstock into real SAF production is in the hands of policymakers and business leaders, particularly in the energy sector.“The conclusion of this study is an urgent call to action. We have just 25 years to turn this proven potential into reality,” said Walsh.Industry analysts say hitting net-zero aviation by 2050 is huge, technically possible, but it won’t happen by accident.The industry must scale SAF fast, modernise fleets, squeeze out operational savings, build hydrogen and PtL capacity, and deploy robust policy and finance — all co-ordinated internationally and backed by strict sustainability and verification — to credibly reach net-zero by 2050.