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Economic growth has continued during a period of geopolitical turbulence, the IMF reports at theIMF–World Bank Annual Meetings. Growth is uneven, and although there is scope for stronger performance in 2027, the IMF sees greater risks of disappointment  Conflict, geopolitical uncertainty, public sector debt and inflation were dominant concerns at the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings. The meeting took place in Bangkok, Thailand. There is no sign of an end to the wars in Ukraine and the Gulf. Rising food and energy prices are major sources of inflationary pressure, and public sector debt is heading towards 100% of global GDP.Yet despite this, growth continues, supported by high levels of global trade.  The continuing conflict between the US and Israel against Iran has severely restricted exports of oil and gas from the Gulf this year. The Group of Seven (G7) leading industrialised nations have agreed to release 100mn barrels of oil stocks, including diesel, through the IEA as part of earlier commitments, to ease the pressure on energy supplies. The US President Donald Trump agreed a controversial deal to import diesel from Russia, approving a waiver of sanctions against the Putin regime.  Annual consumer price inflation in the US reached 3.7% in September, according to data released on October 14. The Federal Reserve had raised interest rates by a quarter-point on September 16 in response to persistent inflation.  Despite the challenges, officials at the IMF anticipate economic growth globally to be 3.1% in 2026. The Fund reports that global economic activity has remained resilient. It points to the technology upturn, buffers and adaptations as explanatory factors.  Growth, however, is uneven. Growth prospects are particularly weak in Gulf economies directly affected by the conflict and reduced energy exports, while Ukraine continues to face the economic costs of war. Energy exporters outside the Gulf have benefited, along with economies that have favourable terms of trade and technology-related exports. Economies without these advantages have struggled.  A study by Citibank, The World Rewired: Shifts in Global Trade and Foreign Direct Investment, and data from the DHL Globalization Tracker show robust growth in trade, for example semiconductor trade related to the development of AI. There are also rapid adjustments following US trade tariffs, with many new trade routes opening up or expanding.  The IMF assesses that risks are tilted to the downside, but also that there is upside potential, and a lack of certainty over which direction the global economy takes. Further escalation of conflict, including trade conflict, fiscal weakness and a reassessment of the potential for AI to spur growth form negative forces. On the other hand, there is the possibility of strong productivity gains as adoption of AI becomes widespread, and of an easing of geopolitical tensions. A reduction in energy intensity has made economies less vulnerable to energy price shocks than in the past, and there are incentives to improve this further given high oil and gas prices. The current projections are for growth of 3.1% in 2026, strengthening to 3.4% in 2027.Inflation globally remains elevated, at 4.7% this year, projected to ease to 4.1% in 2027.  Some of the factors that have sustained growth in the first half of 2026 may not be sustainable, however. One factor is the drawdown of oil and other energy inventories, which has cushioned supply disruptions. Also, there is limited room for fiscal maneuver given high public deficits.  The Fund’s economists remain deeply concerned over elevated levels of public sector debt, in advanced and emerging economies alike. There is no sign of it abating in the short or medium term. This year has seen significant rises in the yields paid on government bonds. Public debt is at the highest level since the Second World War, and is projected to rise above 100% of GDP globally by 2030, the IMF warned.  Such elevated levels of borrowing limit options for governments to boost demand. High proportions of public spending are consumed by interest payments. Some of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios are in advanced economies, including the US. But some emerging and developing economies may be more negatively affected, for which the IMF cites a challenging combination of capital outflows in search of higher US rates, climate turbulence caused by the El Niño phenomenon, and limited investment in AI.  Some nations will have to refinance maturing debt at higher interest rates, and developing countries face $400bn in debt payments to external creditors in 2026, according to Reuters.Lower-income countries often have to accept more stringent conditions for loan programmes, and so may be more at risk of recessionary conditions caused by austerity measures. The IMF acknowledges that but warns of the risk of tax cuts or higher spending funded by borrowing. To deal with cost-of-living pressures, assistance should be temporary and targeted at the most financially vulnerable, the Fund argues.  Monetary policy should be tailored to circumstances, with tighter policies in economies with stronger demand pressure from the technology value chain. A more cautious stance is appropriate for energy importers outside the technology value chain, with inflation at or below target.  The IMF’s annual health check on the world’s economy indicates better performance than might have been expected, but the support from energy inventories cannot last indefinitely, and governments have limited room to borrow more. Sustaining growth will depend increasingly on continued adaptation in trade and lasting productivity gains from technology.n The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions. 

His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani emphasized that the State of Qatar’s resilience relies on preparedness, economic diversification, institutional efficiency, social solidarity, and individual responsibility.In his speech today at the opening of the Shura Council's second ordinary session of the second legislative term, coinciding with the 55th annual session of the Council, His Highness added that national challenges and shared tasks require everyone to perform their duties well, safeguard public funds, and place duty and the public interest above any other consideration. 

 Qatar’s response to disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has demonstrated the country’s growing ability to safeguard essential supplies during crises, while also exposing structural vulnerabilities that require long-term investment and regional co-operation, according to a supply chain expert at Carnegie Mellon University in Qatar (CMU-Q).  Dr Iman Adeinat, an associate teaching professor in the Operations Management Programme at CMU-Q and a member of Qatar Foundation, said the past six months underscored the need to build supply chains that can withstand prolonged disruptions rather than respond to temporary emergencies.  She identified two key dimensions of resilience: operational flexibility, which lets businesses quickly redirect shipments and find alternative suppliers, and structural resilience, which lets supply networks absorb shocks without relying heavily on emergency measures.  While Gulf countries have demonstrated considerable operational flexibility, Adeinat said their continued dependence on critical maritime routes remains a significant vulnerability. Qatar’s ability to keep essential goods flowing despite maritime transport disruptions shows how contingency planning can shield consumers from external shocks.  Businesses and logistics operators responded by moving goods overland through Saudi Arabia, rerouting shipments through Red Sea ports and Oman, and drawing on Qatar’s strategic reserves. These measures helped maintain  the availability of essential goods in domestic markets despite the country’s reliance on imports for a substantial share of its food requirements.However, the impact on imports and exports has varied.  While alternative routes have helped Qatar secure imported goods, industries dependent on energy-related raw materials and maritime export channels have faced greater exposure to disruption.This distinction highlights a central challenge for Qatar and its Gulf neighbours: resilience depends not only on maintaining supplies to domestic markets, but also on sustaining industrial production and access to export markets.  Adeinat said one of the crisis’ most important lessons was that Qatari businesses did not simply wait for conditions to improve. Instead, many adjusted their operations assuming disruptions could persist. 

The Business Continuity and Resilience Conference (BCRC) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with PwC Middle East in Qatar as its Knowledge Partner for the 2025 edition of BCRC.The collaboration supports Qatar’s Third National Development Strategy (NDS3) by enhancing business continuity and resilience across key sectors, including banking, healthcare, energy, and government. It combines BCRC’s convening power with PwC’s regional and global expertise in Digital Trust and Business Continuity (BCM), enabling organisations to safeguard growth, protect services, and reinforce long-term competitiveness.Engineer Abdullatif Ali al-Yafei, chairman and conference president, said: “The agreement reflects the commitment to shaping a stronger, more resilient economy by elevating the standards of business continuity in Qatar and beyond.Bassam Hajhamad, Qatar Country senior partner and consulting leader, said: “Through our cross-sector BCM and Digital Trust expertise, we will bring frameworks and tools that enable leaders to anticipate risks, protect value, and achieve outcomes that matter to their organisations and Qatar’s future.”In a related development, BCRC and PwC Middle East co-hosted a workshop titled ‘BCM Practices in Qatar’.The workshop provided participants with the practical knowledge and skills necessary to build a resilient organisation by establishing an integrated business continuity governance framework. The framework relies on a proactive approach to testing, updating, and continuous improvement to ensure the effectiveness of plans and foster a culture of continuity within the organisation.Al-Yafei said the joint workshop marks the first step in a long-term capability-building journey that will empower leaders in government and semi-government sectors and practitioners in the field of BCM.

AlRayan Bank announced that it has been awarded the National Information Assurance (NIA) Certification by the State of Qatar’s National Cyber Security Agency (NCSA). Achieved to a high standard within a short timeframe, this milestone reflects the bank’s sustained focus on strengthening information protection and cyber resilience in the face of rising global threats. The certification ceremony took place at The Ritz-Carlton, Doha.Unlike traditional security standards that sit mainly within IT, NIA is a strategic, Qatar-tailored assurance framework that integrates cybersecurity across the entire enterprise, governance, processes, and frontline business functions. For AlRayan Bank, the certification represents a major step forward in safeguarding information assets, elevating security practices across every department, and contributing to the State’s national information security strategy in line with international best practice. It also signals independent assurance of the Bank’s cybersecurity maturity, deeper protection for customers, staff, assets, and shareholders, greater confidence among partners, strengthened resilience against evolving cyber risks, support for compliance with national and global standards, and the continued cultivation of a pervasive, organisation-wide security culture.Commenting on the achievement, Omar al-Emadi, Acting Group Chief Executive Officer at AlRayan Bank, said: “We are proud to receive the NIA Certification, a clear reflection of AlRayan Bank’s relentless focus on information protection and cyber resilience. This is a pivotal step in our journey to safeguard information assets and embed robust security practices across the bank. It also affirms our active contribution to Qatar’s national information security strategy, in line with global best practice. Above all, it embodies our steadfast commitment to protecting our customers’ and partners’ data, strengthening our ability to anticipate and counter cyber risks, and ensuring greater resilience and secure business continuity.”Al-Emadi added that the Bank extends its appreciation to the National Cyber Security Agency for its leadership and guidance in enabling AlRayan Bank to meet the certification requirements. Building on this foundation, the bank will continue to deepen trust with customers and shareholders through credible, stable, and secure digital banking services, making AlRayan Bank their first choice.

Qatar’s commitment to open trade has become the decisive safeguard for its food supply, ensuring year round availability even amid global disruptions. In an interview held on the sidelines of the India Utsav 2026 celebration, Dr Mohamed Althaf, director and chief sustainability officer (CSO) of LuLu Group, said Qatar’s liberal trade regime, combined with India’s rise as a global food supplier, has positioned the country to withstand shocks and maintain stability. Althaf emphasised that India’s transformation from a producer for domestic consumption to a global food factory has reshaped its role in international markets. He noted that India’s vast geography and diverse climatic zones allow it to produce a wide range of commodities, making it a reliable partner for Qatar’s food security. He explained that despite supply chain disruptions and adverse weather events, India’s export sector remains resilient. This resilience, he continued, has been critical in supporting Qatar’s food needs, particularly during crises when direct access to top leadership helped stabilise prices and resolve bottlenecks quickly. Althaf emphasised that Qatar’s food security infrastructure is built on historical experience and structural strengths. While domestic production is limited, he said the country maintains extensive storage reserves, world class ports, and one of the highest densities of maritime services globally. He stressed that Qatar’s trade policy is a “fundamental guarantee of economic security.” Unlike countries where restrictive import permissions and regulatory hurdles drive up costs, Althaf pointed out that Qatar permits open imports provided standards are met. To illustrate the risks of restrictive policies, Althaf cited Australia’s banana shortage, where strict rules prevented imports from New Zealand, pushing prices to $15 per fruit. He contrasted this with Qatar’s approach, which avoids artificial shortages by keeping trade channels open. “LuLu Group plays a central role in this framework, operating 25 sourcing offices worldwide to recalibrate supply routes when disruptions occur,” underlined Althaf, who added that alternative routing through Red Sea ports can be deployed swiftly, ensuring continuity. He highlighted Qatar’s government support during crises, including guaranteed airlift capabilities for critical food products and coordination with national maritime entities to keep supply chains intact. Althaf explained that market dynamics typically recalibrate within five to six months, either through demand adjustment or route optimisation. Retailers absorb costs rather than passing them to consumers, while stable tax structures and producing nations with export surpluses help balance expenses, he continued. He added that Qatar’s resilience rests on mutual trust between leadership, residents, and the business community, reinforced by liberal trade policies and proactive government intervention.