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Qatar's renewed commitment to the North Field gas expansion will provide a big medium-term boost to the country's economy, according to Oxford Economics.The country grew by 1.9% year-on-year in the second quarter or Q2 of 2025, reflecting the economy's resilience against the regional and global headwinds, although the energy sector and the less supportive base from last year dragged on activity, Oxford Economics said in its latest research note.The non-hydrocarbon economy grew by 3.4% year-on-year, lifting the headline GDP (gross domestic product) by 2.2 ppts, but the oil sector contracted by 0.9% year-on-year, shaving 0.3 ppts from headline GDP growth, it said.On an annualised basis, Q2's expansion reflected strong performances from construction, trade, accommodation services, and the arts, entertainment, and recreation sector, it said, adding the manufacturing made a second consecutive positive contribution to annual growth in Q2.Keeping its 2025 growth forecast at 2.7% year-on-year but expecting the rate to nearly double in 2026-27 as the energy and non-energy sectors should contribute positively this year and beyond; it said "the authorities’ renewed commitment to the North Field gas expansion will provide a big medium-term boost, with North Field East's first production increase due by mid-2026, followed by the North Field South phase."Qatar targets LNG (liquefied natural gas) capacity target of 142mn tonnes per annum (Mtpa) by end-2030; up nearly 85% from the current 77Mtpa, and up 13% on the intermediate target of 126Mtpa by 2027.The first production boost will come from the North Field East project by mid-2026, followed by the North Field South phase of the expansion. The North Field West phase is in its early stages, with construction likely to begin in 2027."We forecast non-energy sector growth of 3.6% this year and a similar number in 2026, up from 3.4% in 2024," Oxford Economics said.Accordingly, Qatar's fiscal surplus is expected to improve from 0.7% of GDP in 2024 to 1.7% this year and further to 5.4% by 2026.On consumer price index (CPI) inflation front, the research note said it is expected to be 0.3% this year but would jump to 2.6% in 2026.The research note also said Saudi equity market may revive as cap on foreign ownership eases. "The Saudi equity market has underperformed its GCC peers year-to-date, but a higher foreign ownership limit could be a positive catalyst, reigniting global investor interest. Combined with expectations of resilient consumption growth, we see Saudi equities offering compelling investment value and expect the strong upward momentum to continue," it said.Dubai consolidated its global leadership in Greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first half (H1), attracting a record 643 projects and $11bn in FDI inflows (up 62% year-on-year), highlighting the strong investor confidence in robust economic fundamentals amid the heightened global uncertainty."We believe the combination of lower rates, strong employment growth, contained inflation, and a robust fiscal position creates a favourable environment for sustained growth and economic transformation. We forecast UAE GDP growth of 4.9% in 2025, underpinned by recovering oil production and an expansion of non-oil business activity, where FDI continues to play a pivotal role," Oxford Economics said.

Qatar’s PMI climbing to 51.9 in August indicates accelerating non-oil private sector activity in the country, according to Oxford Economics.Last month, the PMI climbed to 51.9, which Oxford Economics noted is “fuelled by the fastest job creation and employment growth in the region”.Business activity in the GCC’s non-oil private sector continued to strengthen in August, Oxford Economics said.The UAE’s PMI rose to 53.3 from July’s four-year low of 52.9, driven by faster output growth. Saudi Arabia’s PMI edged up slightly to 56.4, supported by stronger client demand and infrastructure projects.“Overall, the GCC's non-oil private sector has seen sustained expansion this year, and we expect 4% growth in the region's non-oil output this year,” Oxford Economics said.In Saudi Arabia, credit growth slowed to 15.2% y/y in August but remained well above deposit growth of 8.4%. A sharper drop in mortgage lending suggests softer real estate activity, although consumer credit stayed strong.“We expect early interest rate cuts to support credit demand, likely pushing the average loan-to-deposit ratio to a new high. This could raise liquidity concerns in the coming months, especially if deposit growth continues to lag,” Oxford Economics noted.In a recent report the researcher noted Qatar's fiscal balance is estimated to scale up to 5.4% (of country’s GDP) in 2026 from 1.8% this year.A growing fiscal balance signals improved macroeconomic stability and a stronger ability to manage government debt in the country, an analyst noted.In an indication of the country’s level of international competitiveness, Qatar’s current account will improve further reaching 18.3% of the country’s GDP in 2026, from 17.5% this year.Qatar’s real GDP growth has been forecast at 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) this year, rising to 4.8% in 2026.Inflation has been forecast at 0.4% this year and 2.8% in 2026.In its last country report, Oxford Economics noted Qatar’s GDP growth “will more than double” in 2026-2027, with both the energy and non-energy sectors contributing positively this year and beyond, according to Oxford Economics.

Qatar’s GDP growth will more than double in 2026-2027, with both the energy and non-energy sectors contributing positively this year and beyond, according to Oxford Economics.The researcher’s 2025 GDP growth forecast is unchanged at 2.4%, similar to the pace of expansion last year. However, trade-related uncertainty will remain a headwind to global demand, it said in a country report.Oxford Economics thinks growth in Qatar’s energy sector will remain modest this year, following a 0.6% expansion in 2024, before picking up strongly in 2026-2027.According to Oxford Economics, Qatar isn't involved in the OPEC+ pact on production quotas and its oil output has been relatively flat in recent years, at around 600,000 barrels per day.Last year, the authorities doubled down on the North Field gas expansion project, which will have a positive medium-term impact. Qatar raised its liquefied natural gas capacity target to 142mn tonnes per year by end-2030.This is up nearly 85% from the current 77mtpy, and up 13% on the intermediate target of 126mtpy by 2027. The first production boost will come from the North Field East project by mid-2026, followed by the North Field South phase of the expansion.The North Field West phase is in its early stages, with construction likely to begin in 2027.Qatar is also making progress in contracting future gas output. The government has signed long-term supply contracts with India, China, France, Germany, Hungary, Kuwait, and Taiwan, and is negotiating a deal with Japan.Output data (reported in April this year) showed the non-energy economy expanded by 3.4% last year, and the researcher projects the same pace of growth in 2025.The 2025 budget targets a deficit of QR13.2bn (1.6% of projected GDP). The authorities plan to raise spending by 4.6% relative to last year's budget and 1.2% relative to realised expenditure, with a strong focus on development in education and healthcare. The bill assumes an average oil price of $60/barrel.It projects a surplus of QR23bn (2.8% of GDP), larger than the surplus of QAR5.6bn (0.7% of GDP) realised in 2024. The researcher sees the balance improving to 5.7% of GDP next year amid the LNG production boost.Oxford Economics also noted tourism has provided significant support to non- energy growth and will remain a driver of future activity and employment.Qatar welcomed 5.1mn overnight arrivals in 2024, a 25% increase on 2023 and 138% higher than 2019 levels. The launch of the pan-GCC visa will likely help extend the positive performance and we forecast arrivals to increase to 5.3mn this year, it said.