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Qatar's economy continues to show resilience and the outlook remains favourable with medium-term growth projected to average 4%, reflecting the North Field expansion, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).Twin external and fiscal surpluses are expected to continue and inflation is slated to remain above 2.5% in 2026 before it stabilises around 2% over the medium term, the IMF said in its Article IV consultation with Qatar."Qatar’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience, supported by forward-looking policies and large hydrocarbon wealth," said the Bretton Woods institution.The planned expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in the North Field will further strengthen Qatar’s position as a key global energy supplier and support both fiscal and external balances, it added."Overall growth over the medium term is projected to average 4%, reflecting the North Field expansion, which will significantly increase LNG production, and implementation of NDS3" (Third National Development Strategy), it said.“The ongoing implementation of NDS3 is facilitating a transition towards a private sector-led, knowledge-based, more diversified, and environmentally sustainable economy," according to IMF report.Robust non-hydrocarbon growth of more than 4% is expected in 2025, consistent with sound growth in the first half or G1 of 2025 and strong PMI (purchasing managers index) readings.Stressing that the outlook remains favourable; it said growth recovered to 2.4% in 2024, driven by faster non-hydrocarbon expansion at 3.4%.Highlighting twin external and fiscal surpluses to continue, it said the current account remained strong in 2024, posting a surplus exceeding 17% of GDP (gross domestic product).This outcome reflected robust service sector performance and current transfers, which together offset a worsening trade balance.The surplus remained solid in the first quarter of 2025 at 15.6% of GDP and the Qatar Central Bank continues to build foreign reserves ($55bn, 8.1 months of imports, in August), it said, adding the anticipated direct impact of the US tariffs is limited due to the exemption of hydrocarbon exports.“With lower hydrocarbon revenues, the overall fiscal surplus declined to 0.7% of GDP in 2024, although the non-hydrocarbon primary balance improved by 2.4 percentage points," it said.The 2025 budget plans for spending levels comparable to 2024, it said, adding gradual consolidation over the medium term would support a non-hydrocarbon primary balance consistent with intergenerational equity."Provided fiscal prudence is maintained, twin current account and fiscal surpluses are expected to continue over the medium term," the IMF said.The report said continued sound macroeconomic and financial sector policies alongside accelerated structural reforms would further strengthen Qatar’s dynamism and cement its resilience.

Qatar's renewed commitment to the North Field gas expansion will provide a big medium-term boost to the country's economy, according to Oxford Economics.The country grew by 1.9% year-on-year in the second quarter or Q2 of 2025, reflecting the economy's resilience against the regional and global headwinds, although the energy sector and the less supportive base from last year dragged on activity, Oxford Economics said in its latest research note.The non-hydrocarbon economy grew by 3.4% year-on-year, lifting the headline GDP (gross domestic product) by 2.2 ppts, but the oil sector contracted by 0.9% year-on-year, shaving 0.3 ppts from headline GDP growth, it said.On an annualised basis, Q2's expansion reflected strong performances from construction, trade, accommodation services, and the arts, entertainment, and recreation sector, it said, adding the manufacturing made a second consecutive positive contribution to annual growth in Q2.Keeping its 2025 growth forecast at 2.7% year-on-year but expecting the rate to nearly double in 2026-27 as the energy and non-energy sectors should contribute positively this year and beyond; it said "the authorities’ renewed commitment to the North Field gas expansion will provide a big medium-term boost, with North Field East's first production increase due by mid-2026, followed by the North Field South phase."Qatar targets LNG (liquefied natural gas) capacity target of 142mn tonnes per annum (Mtpa) by end-2030; up nearly 85% from the current 77Mtpa, and up 13% on the intermediate target of 126Mtpa by 2027.The first production boost will come from the North Field East project by mid-2026, followed by the North Field South phase of the expansion. The North Field West phase is in its early stages, with construction likely to begin in 2027."We forecast non-energy sector growth of 3.6% this year and a similar number in 2026, up from 3.4% in 2024," Oxford Economics said.Accordingly, Qatar's fiscal surplus is expected to improve from 0.7% of GDP in 2024 to 1.7% this year and further to 5.4% by 2026.On consumer price index (CPI) inflation front, the research note said it is expected to be 0.3% this year but would jump to 2.6% in 2026.The research note also said Saudi equity market may revive as cap on foreign ownership eases. "The Saudi equity market has underperformed its GCC peers year-to-date, but a higher foreign ownership limit could be a positive catalyst, reigniting global investor interest. Combined with expectations of resilient consumption growth, we see Saudi equities offering compelling investment value and expect the strong upward momentum to continue," it said.Dubai consolidated its global leadership in Greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first half (H1), attracting a record 643 projects and $11bn in FDI inflows (up 62% year-on-year), highlighting the strong investor confidence in robust economic fundamentals amid the heightened global uncertainty."We believe the combination of lower rates, strong employment growth, contained inflation, and a robust fiscal position creates a favourable environment for sustained growth and economic transformation. We forecast UAE GDP growth of 4.9% in 2025, underpinned by recovering oil production and an expansion of non-oil business activity, where FDI continues to play a pivotal role," Oxford Economics said.

Qatar's GDP (gross domestic product) growth is seen nearly doubling to 4.8% in 2026 on "significant" liquefied natural gas (LNG) output through North Field expansion, boosting fiscal surpluses and supporting business optimism, according to the Institute of Chartered Accountants of England and Wales (ICAEW)."We project Qatar’s GDP growth at 2.7% for this year and 4.8% for 2026," said the ICAEW Economic Insight Q3 2025 report, produced by Oxford Economics.Industrial output data for the second quarter or Q2 showed a 2.4% year-on-year growth, spurred by stronger mining production, although this comes off a low base from last year, said the economic update.The July report from the Gas Exporting Countries Forum showed LNG production trends are supportive of exports and "we think activity will improve in the remainder of the year, before surging in 2026 as planned projects are completed."Qatar targets LNG capacity target of 142mn tonnes per annum (Mtpa) by end-2030; up nearly 85% from the current 77 Mtpa, and up 13% on the intermediate target of 126 Mtpa by 2027.The first production boost will come from the North Field East project by mid-2026, followed by the North Field South phase of the expansion. The North Field West phase is in its early stages, with construction likely to begin in 2027.The expansion of the North Field gas project means the energy sector will play a more prominent role in the next five years, boosting the government's ability to support the economy, according to the update."We expect Qatar to run a budget surplus of QR14.1bn (1.7% of GDP) this year and see the surplus more than tripling in 2026, thanks to the LNG production boost," ICAEW said.This is despite a cumulative deficit of QR1.3bn in the first half (H1), 2025; reflecting a rise in public spending against the backdrop of hydrocarbon revenue headwinds, it said.Businesses remain optimistic about the outlook despite uncertainty over demand and recent PMI (purchasing managers’ index) prints have held above the H1 average of 51.1, owing to ongoing labour market strength,"We continue to project an expansion of 3.6% in the non-energy economy this year and expect a similar pace of growth in 2026," it said.The outlook continues to benefit from improvements in the regulatory framework and business environment, which have helped elevate the country's competitiveness ranking by two places to ninth globally in the latest IMD competitiveness index.Forecasting Qatar’s inflation to average 0.4% this year but set to rise above 2% in 2026; it said Qatar has the second-lowest rate of inflation in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) region, behind that of Bahrain. Food and communication are the key drivers of Qatar’s inflation, it said.Finding that prices are lower than last year across most of the CPI (consumer price index) basket, though the drag from the housing and utilities category "is easing, albeit remaining substantial", it said "we expect the impact of these disinflationary forces to gradually fade over time."With the US Federal Reserve resuming interest rate cuts in September and pencilling in a cumulative reduction of 125 basis points by end-2026, it said Qatar Central Bank is slated to follow suit, which will support credit expansion and spending.