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India is on course for its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades, with rainfall likely to end the season around 15% below the long-term average, the lowest since 2009, two senior weather department sources said.The weak monsoon could hurt crop output, drive up food prices and curb rural incomes in the world's fifth-largest economy, where the rains provide around 70% of the country's annual rainfall.A lack of good rains in the crucial crop-maturing month of September could dent yields of summer-sown crops such as cotton, soybean, corn and pulses, while also depleting soil moisture needed for winter-sown crops such as wheat and rapeseed."We are witnessing the impact of El Nino on monsoon rainfall. It is likely to be severe in September, and we could see a double-digit deficit in rainfall," said a senior official with the India Meteorological Department (IMD), who declined to be named as he was not authorised to speak with media.India could receive 15% below-average rainfall, or 85% of normal, during the June-September season, which would be the lowest rainfall since 2009, he said.That would be nearly double the 8% deficit projected in the weather department's initial forecast.Except for some eastern states, most parts of the country are likely to receive below-average rainfall in September, widening the seasonal deficit, he added.The IMD is expected to issue its official forecast for September at the end of this month.The monsoon this year could begin withdrawing from northwestern parts of the country a few days earlier than usual next month, unless a fresh weather system develops, said a second weather department source, who did not want to be identified in line with official rules.The monsoon typically begins in June and starts to retreat by September 17 from northwestern parts of the country, ending across the country by mid-October.El Nino is strengthening and is likely to intensify further in September, suppressing rainfall over India, they said.A climate pattern marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, El Nino disrupts global weather patterns and can bring drier conditions to parts of Southeast Asia and other regions.In the past, India has experienced below-average rainfall during most El Nino years, sometimes leading to severe droughts that destroyed crops and forced authorities to limit the export of some grains.India has received 13% less rainfall than average since the monsoon season began on June 1. Rainfall was 35.4% below average in June before a 1% surplus in July offered a brief reprieve. The monsoon weakened again in August, with rainfall so far running 15% below average. 

Flooding from heavy monsoon rains inundated villages in eastern Pakistan, pushing residents to flee their homes by boat over fields turned into vast swathes of water Monday. AFP journalists witnessed small motor boats chartered by volunteers ferrying residents to safety, but many more were left stranded in Muridke district in Pakistan’s most populous province of Punjab. “It has been four days, and no rescue team has reached us,” said 32-year-old Iqra Salman. “We have no electricity, no clean water, and now we have completely run out of food supplies,” she said. “We are surrounded by floodwater on all sides.” Flood-related incidents, including by drowning and from house collapses, have killed 109 people in Pakistan since June 26, according to official disaster agency figures. Around a third of the deaths are in Punjab. Volunteer rescuers said they had launched an effort to rescue people and recover their belongings from around a dozen villages. “Four rescue boats... are actively conducting rescue operations, evacuating people stranded by the flooding,” said Haris Dar, a volunteer rescuer, standing by a huge lake-like body of brown water. But even when brought to safety, residents faced difficult conditions, sleeping in small tents in humid heat, nestled between the huge body of water and the road. Muhammad Ramzan, 45, recalled water rushing in during the early hours of the morning shortly before his family’s house collapsed. “The water rose so rapidly that we had no opportunity to save or remove any of our belongings,” he said. “We have lost everything and have nothing,” he added. Pakistan is vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with limited resources for adaptation. While South Asia’s seasonal monsoon brings rainfall that farmers depend on, climate change is making the phenomenon more erratic, unpredictable and deadly across the region. In neighbouring Afghanistan, flash floods and heavy rainfall killed 34 people between July 20-26, according to disaster authorities, including a deluge in eastern Nuristan province that left around 100 missing. In 2022, what UN chief Antonio Guterres called a “monsoon on steroids” caused havoc across Pakistan, killing around 1,700 people and submerging huge areas of the country. 

Parts of Delhi and Kashmir were flooded Thursday after two rivers breached the danger mark following heavy rain in several northern areas, but weather officials forecast some respite from downpours.A fierce monsoon season has brought immense destruction in the region this year, killing at least 130 people in August.Torrential rain in the hilly areas of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh has swollen many rivers, which have crossed danger levels.Residential areas were flooded in the key city of Srinagar after a breach of the Jhelum river embankment, and authorities urged people to evacuate homes."The Jhelum is climbing, but at a much slower rate than was feared," Omar Abdullah, the chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, said in a post on X. "The administration is not going to lower its guard. We continue to monitor the situation very closely."Rescuers searched for any people trapped under debris after the rain triggered a landslide at the Ratle hydroelectric power project on the Chenab river in Drabshalla, officials said.Weather officials have forecast showers to ease off with moderate rain expected in Jammu and Kashmir and the state of Uttarkhand.In Delhi, the capital, the Yamuna river passed the danger mark on Tuesday, in a flow the Central Water Commission described as a 'severe' situation.Muddy water Thursday poured into many homes in low-lying areas, from which thousands had already been evacuated to safer places as a precaution.Authorities shut the historic Loha Pul, or Iron Bridge, spanning the Yamuna in the older part of the city.Crops across tens of thousands of hectares have been destroyed by the rains in the breadbasket state of Punjab where 37 have died since August began.The deluge spurred authorities to release water pent up in dams, further flooding areas in both India and neighbouring Pakistan.