tag

IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned on Wednesday of difficult times ahead for the global economy if war in the Middle East is unresolved and oil prices stay high, adding that inflation risks could seep into food prices."We must brace for tough times ahead" if the conflict persists, she told reporters at a press briefing during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank's spring meetings in Washington.The gathering brings government and financial leaders to the US capital this week, with policymakers looking to limit economic fallout from the war.US-Israeli strikes launched against Iran on February 28 sparked Tehran's retaliation, virtually closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for oil and fertilisers.Energy prices have since surged, squeezing countries -- especially vulnerable economies and those dependent on oil exports from the region."We are concerned about risks for inflation, moving into food prices should the delivery of fertilizers at a reasonable price (not be) restarted soon," Georgieva said.But as countries move to limit price shocks on their citizens, Georgieva urged central banks to "wait and see" before adjusting interest rates if they can do so.She said this was particularly the case where the public has a "well-anchored" expectation of inflation being kept under control."If we are to move faster out of the war, it may not be necessary to take action," she said.But she conceded that countries where central banks lack such credibility might need to send stronger signals.For now, "we are still at a time when a faster resolution of hostilities is possible," she said.She urged IMF member countries to come forward to the Washington-based lender if they need financial assistance during the conflict."Currently, we have 39 programmes, and prospective demand for new programs from at least a dozen countries, a number of them in sub-Saharan Africa," she said of the fund's financial aid."If you need help financially, don't hesitate. Move fast, because the sooner we act, the more we would protect the economy and the people," Georgieva said.She also stressed the need to protect fiscal sustainability as countries move to help their populations, cautioning that "untargeted measures, export controls or broad-based tax cuts" could serve to "prolong the pain of high prices." 

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has highlighted the GCC region’s “comparative advantage” in terms of access to energy that helps it host data centres and cites Qatar's partnership with Blue Owl Capital as an example.“GCC’s comparative advantage in terms of access to energy is helping it unlock major projects to host data centres. Examples include partnerships with Humain and Nvidia in Saudi Arabia, Blue Owl Capital in Qatar, or the US-UAE AI accelerated partnership,” Georgieva said in her meeting with the Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) in Kuwait.Georgieva noted: “The last time we saw each other was during the Spring Meetings six months ago. At the time, trade tensions brought global uncertainty to new highs, contributing to a downward revision in our global growth projections.“Since then, a series of trade agreements and pauses in tariff increases have prevented escalation. Almost all countries subjected to US tariffs have refrained from retaliating. This, combined with the fact that the rest of trade relations among countries remain guided — so far — by WTO rules, allowed us to avoid a full-scale trade war.”In addition, she noted the private sector has shown “impressive” agility and adaptability, front-loading cross-border purchases, adjusting supply chains and pursuing investment strategies aligned with a more complex global environment.And access to finance has eased both for the public and the private sector. As a result global growth prospects are better than feared during our last meeting in April.Yet, they are still worse than pre-Covid and the world economy remains in flux. Major transformational forces are in play, from geopolitics to trade relations, technology and demography, producing new opportunities but also new risks.They steer anxiety in societies and complicate the job of policymakers. Navigating uncertainty is becoming the new normal.She said, “In this environment, risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside. Protectionism could lead to escalation of trade tensions, with negative impact on supply chains. Erosion of confidence could constrain consumption and investment. Shocks to labour supply, including from changing immigration policies, could lower growth, especially in countries with aging populations.”Georgieva said the outlook is not homogeneous — while some parts of the world are slowing down, others do better. Growth is expected to accelerate in the Middle East and Central Asia as global headwinds are offset by an increase in oil production, and structural reforms pay off.“As for the GCC, a year ago I said that the GCC ‘remains a bright spot’ despite the numerous shocks.”Since then, global uncertainty has increased, including related to shifts in the global trade system, while oil prices have declined and geopolitical tensions have intensified.“Yet, despite this increasingly challenging environment, the GCC continues to deliver strong and steady performance and is still a bright spot in the world economy. You, the finance ministers and central bank governors of the region, deserve credit for the strong reform momentum underlying this. It is making the GCC more resilient, as evidenced by limited spillovers from tensions and conflicts in the region,” Georgieva said.She noted the impact of higher US tariffs on GCC economies has been modest, with exports to the US ranging from just 0.1% of total exports for Kuwait and up to 8% for Bahrain.“Against this backdrop, we now expect overall GCC growth to accelerate to a 3-3.5% range in 2025 and close to 4% in 2026, supported by the resilience of the non-hydrocarbon economy, the unwinding of voluntary oil production cuts, and the expansion of natural gas production.”Over the medium term, non-hydrocarbon activity is set to remain strong on the back of ambitious reform efforts facilitated by ample policy buffers — both official reserves and those available through sovereign wealth funds. This activity is expected to offset the impact of lower oil prices.But there are risks to this outlook. Oil prices and revenues could be negatively affected by weaker oil demand, driven by elevated economic uncertainty, an escalation of global trade tensions, or deepening geo-economic fragmentation.Additionally, a potential supply glut may emerge as Opec+ continues to unwind voluntary oil production cuts at a time when demand remains weak.“In a downside scenario where oil prices temporarily fall to $40 per barrel, non-hydrocarbon GDP growth in the GCC could slow by 1.3 percentage points, while fiscal deficits could rise significantly. In addition, high global uncertainty could lead to tightening of financial conditions and lower FDI, thereby threatening the economic diversification agenda.“Over the medium term, the outlook remains subject to two-sided risks related to ongoing global structural shifts, such as the energy transition, potential global fragmentation, digitalisation and the use of AI,” Georgieva noted.