From the start of the year, Japanese stocks surged on bets that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi would cement power through a snap election and then ramp up spending. Then on Tuesday, the so-called Takaichi trade unravelled.A bond slump that sent yields soaring to records on her election pitch to cut taxes on food rippled through markets in Tokyo, spurring a two-day decline in the benchmark Topix that was its biggest since mid-November. And while markets somewhat stabilised toward the end of the trading week, the Topix still finished with a weekly decline, trailing a broader gauge of Asian shares.Equity investors see reasons to be on guard as sentiment remains fragile in the runup to the February 8 election.State Street Investment Management says a move above 2.5% in 10-year bond yields and near 4.5% in ultra-long yields risks crowding out stocks. Already, Japan’s equity risk premium — the extra return investors demand to hold stocks over government bonds — narrowed to less than 3% this week, the lowest since 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.“Investors are nervous,” said Andrew Jackson, head of Japan equity strategy at Ortus Advisors Pte in Singapore. “Japan’s bull case for the medium term stays intact but for the short term, it isn’t a one-way trade.”Higher bond yields — especially when they rise with the intensity seen on Tuesday — have the potential to hurt the equity market on several counts. Besides stoking volatility across financial assets, they tend to reduce the relative allure of stocks for investors, while a sustained increase raises the prospect of impairment losses for local banks and insurers that typically have large bond holdings.Japanese stocks started 2026 with a bang, extending an advance that saw the Topix cap a third straight year of gains on December 31. The surge has been underpinned by a rally in shares linked to artificial intelligence, expectations for a broad improvement in company earnings and corporate governance standards, as well as Takaichi’s pro-stimulus policies.The nation’s bond yields, meanwhile, have largely been in an uptrend as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its policy rate to the highest in three decades and scaled back its debt purchases. The central bank indicated on Friday that it is on track for another rate hike.“Investors should consider the limits of this trade,” said Frank Benzimra, head of Asia equity strategy at Societe Generale SA, referring to how stocks have continued to rally alongside rising bond yields on bets that the BoJ will engineer an orderly exit from its ultra-easy policy.While fiscal concerns are complicating matters now, Japan’s stocks have shown strong resilience in recent episodes of broader market turmoil, and continued their march to all-time highs.It took the Topix less than a month to recoup all losses triggered by Donald Trump’s tariff shocks in early April last year. In August 2024, it rebounded even faster from a sudden slump that came amid the yen’s sharp surge in the wake of the BoJ’s rate hike and hawkish messaging.“I’m not as worried as some people are,” said Richard Kaye, co-head of Japan equity strategy at Comgest Asset Management. “I do expect Japanese stocks to do well after the election, and the reason is, I think Takaichi will win.”“Takaichi, just like Shinzo Abe, has a very significant reformist agenda, focusing on the right things, such as removing government from unnecessary roles, deregulating, and where necessary, sponsoring important industries like data centres,” Kaye added.Further, late Friday’s comments by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda that the central bank may conduct market operations for stable yield formation could also help ease concerns over bond volatility.That said, the recent selloff in the debt market has driven Japan’s 10-year bond yield above the Topix’s dividend yield for the first time since the global financial crisis, making stocks a less attractive bet on payouts.On Friday, the Topix pared an early advance while the 10-year yield edged higher in immediate response to the BoJ’s decision to raise its inflation outlook while holding the benchmark rate unchanged.Masahiko Loo, a fixed-income strategist at State Street, says the key tipping point for stocks would be a sharper long-end bond selloff that triggers mark-to-market losses at insurers or risk-driven selling at banks.“A slow grind to higher yields is manageable, it’s violent bear steepening that is the risk,” he added, referring to the situation in which long-end yields rise sharply relative to the front end.
