Gulf Times

One theme is becoming prevalent as the new year approaches: The technology giants that have been shouldering this bull market will no longer be running the show.Wall Street strategists at firms including Bank of America Corp and Morgan Stanley are advising clients to buy less popular pockets of the market, placing sectors like healthcare, industrials and energy at the top of their shopping lists for 2026 over the Magnificent Seven cohort that includes Nvidia Corp and Amazon.com Inc.For years, investing in Big Tech firms has been a no brainer, given their stalwart balance sheets and fat profits. Now, there’s increasing skepticism over whether the sector — which has surged some 300% since the bull market began three years ago — can keep justifying its lofty valuations and ambitious spending on artificial intelligence technology. Earnings readouts from AI bellwethers Oracle Corp. and Broadcom Inc. that failed to meet lofty expectations amplified those concerns this week.Worries around the red-hot trade come amid rising optimism over the broader US economy in the new year. The setup may push investors to pile into the lagging groups in the S&P 500 at the cost of megacap tech.“I’m hearing about people taking money out of the Magnificent Seven trade, and they’re going elsewhere in the market,” said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler & Co. “They’re not just going to be chasing the Microsofts and Amazons anymore, they’re going to be broadening this trade out.”There are already signs that stretched valuations are beginning to curb investors’ interest in once-unstoppable tech behemoths. Flows are rotating into undervalued cyclicals, small-capitalisation stocks and economically sensitive segments of the market as traders position to benefit from the anticipated boost in economic growth next year.Since US stocks hit their near-term low on November 20, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index has gained 11% while a Bloomberg gauge of Magnificent Seven companies posted half of that advance. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, which makes no distinction between a behemoth like Microsoft Corp and relative minnow like Newell Brands Inc, has been outperforming its cap-weighted counterpart over the same period.Strategas Asset Management LLC, which prefers the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 over the standard gauge, sees a “great sector rotation” into this year’s underperformers like financials and consumer discretionary stocks in 2026, according to Chairman Jason De Sena Trennert. It’s a view shared by Morgan Stanley’s research team, which emphasised broadening in its year-ahead outlook.“We think Big Tech can still do OK but will lag these new areas, most notably consumer discretionary — especially goods — and small- and mid-caps,” said Michael Wilson, chief US equity strategist and chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley.Wilson, who correctly predicted a rebound from April’s rout, says the market widening could be supported with the economy now in an “early-cycle backdrop” after troughing in April. This tends to be a boon for laggards like lower-quality, more cyclical financials and industrials. Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett said on Friday that markets are front-running a “run-it-hot” strategy in 2026, rotating into “Main Street” mid-caps, small caps and micro caps from Wall Street megacaps.Earlier in the week, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni of his eponymous firm Yardeni Research effectively recommended going underweight Big Tech versus the rest of the S&P 500, expecting a shift in profit growth ahead. He was overweight information technology and communications services since 2010.Fundamentals are also on their side. Earnings growth for the S&P 493 is projected to accelerate to 9% in 2026 from 7% this year as the earnings contribution from the seven largest companies in the S&P 500 is set to fall to 46% from 50%, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.Investors, will want to see evidence that the S&P 493 are meeting or beating earnings expectations before getting more bullish, according to Michael Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners. “If jobs and inflation data remain status quo and the Federal Reserve is still easing, we could see a bullish move in the 493 next year,” he added.The US central bank cut interest rates for the third consecutive time on Wednesday and reiterated its view for another reduction next year.Utilities, financials, healthcare, industrials, energy, and even consumer discretionary are solidly up this year, evidence that the broadening is already happening, points out Max Kettner, chief cross-asset strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc.“For me, it’s not about whether we should buy tech or the other sectors, but more about tech and the other sectors participating too,” Kettner said. “And in my view, that should continue in the coming months too.”

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