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Second, QNB considered the 2008 global financial crisis a turning point in the evolution of global trade, after which it moved from a period of rapid expansion into an era of slower trade growth.The report noted that following the dramatic collapse after the global financial crisis and the rebound in 2009 and 2010, trade growth settled into a markedly slower gear, while the ratio of trade growth to global output growth fell from roughly two-to-one before the crisis to around one-to-one afterwards. It attributed this to the maturation of the expansion of global value chains and the shift by major economies, such as China, toward growth driven by domestic demand.The bank noted that trade openness plateaued during this phase rather than continuing to rise, giving rise to the term "slowbalisation” to describe an era in which trade integration remained substantial but no longer deepened at the rapid pace recorded in the previous phase. Third, the bank said the most consequential phase has been the entry of the global trading system into a more contentious period marked by rising protectionism.According to the "Global Trade Alert”, the number of new trade-restrictive measures introduced worldwide roughly doubled between the decade ending in 2010 and the decade ending in 2020, rising from around 3,000 measures per year to around 6,000. The report noted that the value of imports affected by new tariffs and other import measures rose more than fourfold over the past year, reaching its highest level in terms of coverage in more than 15 years of monitoring. It explained that successive rounds of tariff increases and restrictive measures among major economies, together with a broader shift toward industrial policy and supply-chain "de-risking”, have lifted both tariffs and trade-policy uncertainty far above historical norms. In its conclusion, the bank said the consequences of this shift are beginning to be reflected in the near-term outlook, noting that after world merchandise trade grew by close to 3% in 2024, growth is expected to slow sharply. It highlighted repeated warnings by the World Trade Organization that the spread of trade-restrictive measures and policy uncertainty represents the principal downside risk to the outlook for global trade. The report concluded that trade fragmentation is increasingly taking place along geopolitical lines, with commerce being redirected toward partners perceived as more reliable. This process raises costs, dampens efficiency and weighs on global productivity over time.   Qatar National Bank (QNB) said global trade is moving from a phase of rapid globalization toward a more fragmented reality, following a trajectory that has unfolded over a generation, from "hyper-globalization" in the first decade of the millennium, through "slowbalization" in the second decade, to the current landscape marked by greater fragmentation and growing policy-related constraints.In its weekly commentary, the bank noted that this shift has not dismantled trade or supply chains so much as reshaped them, alongside the forging of new agreements. The era of deepening integration built on clearer rules is giving way to a trading environment increasingly influenced by strategic and geopolitical considerations.It said these developments have significant implications for global growth and prices, as well as for the development prospects of emerging economies that have relied on open markets to support growth and narrow the gap with advanced economies.Global trade was one of the main driving forces of the global economy at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Between 2000 and 2024, world trade in goods and services nearly quadrupled, while the ratio of trade to global output climbed to a peak of around 60% in 2008.According to the report, the global financial crisis marked a major turning point in the evolution of international trade, bringing an end to a period of rapid expansion often described as the era of "hyper-globalization," after which the pace of trade growth began to slow.The report said in this regard that momentum has faded since then, and the global trading system has recently entered one of its most turbulent periods in decades, driven by a wave of tariffs and trade restrictions. Understanding this shift matters, given the role trade has played as one of the most powerful engines of global economic growth and poverty reduction in the modern era.In its weekly analysis, QNB reviewed three phases in the evolution of global trade: the rapid expansion of the 2000s, the "slowbalization" that followed the global financial crisis, and the recent surge in protectionism, which is now reshaping the geography of global commerce.In this context, the report noted an extraordinary deepening of global trade integration during the 2000s, driven by China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, the proliferation of global value chains and steady declines in trade costs. These factors allowed goods, components and services to move across borders at an unprecedented pace. This expansion was reinforced by other factors, most notably the increased standardization of containers used in shipping, the rapid growth of information technology and successive rounds of tariff liberalization and trade opening.The report noted that during this period, global trade consistently expanded at around twice the rate of global output, lifting the trade-to-GDP ratio and drawing emerging market economies more deeply into the global trading system.It pointed to the rise in the share of emerging markets in total global trade from roughly a quarter in the early 2000s to some 40% today, transforming the geography of global commerce.

Qatar and Singapore have called for the restoration of safe, unimpeded passage through the Strait of Hormuz and urged dialogue to resolve renewed hostilities involving the US and Iran, warning of threats to maritime security and global trade.The two countries underscored the need to protect shipping and uphold freedom of navigation during the third meeting of the Implementation Monitoring Mechanism of the Qatar-Singapore High-Level Joint Committee in Doha.His Excellency Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sultan bin Saad al-Muraikhi and Singapore’s Foreign Minister Dr Vivian Balakrishnan co-chaired the meeting. Singapore’s Minister of State at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Home Affairs Zhulkarnain Abdul Rahim also participated.Expressing serious concern over developments in the Middle East, both sides stressed that dialogue and diplomacy were essential to achieving a peaceful and lasting resolution to the conflict. They commended Qatar’s sustained diplomatic efforts to facilitate dialogue and ease regional tensions.They also voiced concern over threats to international shipping, including Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, which have disrupted trade and endangered the safety and freedom of navigation.Both sides said navigational rights and freedoms must be upheld in accordance with international law, as reflected in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. They also stressed the need to ensure the safety of seafarers and ships under the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea.They called for safe, unimpeded and continuous transit passage for vessels and aircraft through the Strait of Hormuz, a strait used for international navigation.On bilateral co-operation, the two sides reviewed progress across six technical working committees covering information and communications technology, security, business, legal affairs, sustainability and social development.They reaffirmed the High-Level Joint Committee’s role as the principal platform for setting the strategic direction of relations, with the Implementation Monitoring Mechanism ensuring regular follow-up and translating decisions and agreements into practical results.The meeting also backed stronger co-operation between Singapore and the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), including an upgrade of the existing GCC-Singapore Free Trade Agreement.Both sides welcomed Qatar’s admission as a sectoral dialogue partner of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) in July 2026.They looked forward to the Asean-GCC Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on the sidelines of the 81st UN General Assembly’s high-level week in New York in September 2026. Singapore, as co-ordinator for Asean-GCC relations, and Bahrain, as GCC president, will co-chair the meeting.The two countries supported stronger trade and investment flows between the regions, including through ongoing discussions on an Asean-GCC free trade agreement, as called for in the Joint Declaration on Economic Co-operation adopted at the second Asean-GCC Summit in May 2025.They also looked forward to advancing regional co-operation at the third Asean-GCC Summit during Singapore’s Asean chairmanship in 2027.Reaffirming their warm and longstanding relations, both sides welcomed the exchange of high-level visits that has helped expand bilateral co-operation.These included then Singapore president Halimah Yacob’s state visit to Qatar in June 2023 and the visit of His Excellency Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani to Singapore in August that year.Singapore’s Senior Minister, Co-ordinating Minister for National Security and Minister for Home Affairs K Shanmugam visited Qatar in February 2026, followed by Balakrishnan in May.His Excellency Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for Defence Affairs Sheikh Saoud bin Abdulrahman bin Hassan bin Ali al-Thani and His Excellency Minister of Labour Dr Ali bin Samikh al-Marri made separate visits to Singapore in May and July 2026, respectively.The Singaporean delegation reiterated its condolences on the passing of His Highness the late Father Amir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, recalling his distinguished contribution to bilateral relations, particularly the establishment of the High-Level Joint Committee in 2006.Singapore will host the mechanism’s fourth meeting in 2027.

Leaders of the Brics group of nations met on Saturday in the Indian capital of New Delhi for their annual summit, amid mounting geopolitical tension, disruptions in energy markets, shipping, and global trade.Here is a look at the bloc's history, and the challenges it faces today. WHAT IS Brics?The acronym BRIC was coined by Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jim O'Neill in 2001, in a research paper highlighting the growth potential of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, but it was not until 2009 that the countries came together as a bloc.South Africa joined them in 2011, creating Brics as it is known today.The grouping expanded in 2024, when Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and UAE became members, and in 2025, when Indonesia joined.Saudi Arabia has also been invited to be part of the bloc but has not formally accepted the invitation. WHY WAS IT FORMED?Brics was set up to challenge a world order dominated by the US and its Western allies.Together, its members account for more than 40% of the world's population and almost a quarter of the global economy.The grouping today focuses on political and security cooperation, economic and financial cooperation, and people-to-people exchanges, according to the Brics website set up by India during its presidency this year.Members meet annually, with the chairmanship rotating among them. WHAT HAS IT ACHIEVED?Brics' biggest achievement is the multilateral New Development Bank, established in 2015 to finance infrastructure and sustainable development projects in emerging markets.The bank has approved 139 projects worth nearly $43bn, according to its website, but suspended new transactions in Russia in the face of sanctions.In addition, a Brics Pay System is being set up, with the aim of linking members' fast payment systems to enable cross-border settlements without relying on dollar-based banks.Members are also exploring linking their central bank digital currencies and are increasingly settling trade in national currencies as they pursue alternatives to dollar-based payment systems. WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES?From disagreements on core purpose to divergent interests, Brics is grappling with many challenges today.While Russia and China consider the bloc a counterweight to the West, India and Brazil see it as more focused on economics and reform.The 2024 expansion has also complicated its consensus-oriented approach, with divergent foreign policy interests hindering agreement.Their differences prevented a joint statement during the Brics foreign ministers' meeting in New Delhi in May. HOW DOES THE WEST VIEW Brics?Most Western nations are cautious about the grouping, recognising it as a platform that can slowly shift the balance of geopolitical power, but the bloc has repeatedly clashed with US President Donald Trump, who has termed it "anti-American".He has also threatened to slap tariffs on its members if they try to set up a new Brics currency, or back any currency to replace the US dollar.Brazil floated the idea of a common Brics currency during its chairmanship last year but the idea was later scrapped. 

Just two years after the worst drought in the Panama Canal's history forced ships to wait weeks for passage and triggered multi-million-dollar bidding wars for transit slots, El Nino is again threatening the rainfall that feeds the waterway. With El Nino strengthening and reservoirs shrinking, the industry is bracing for a repeat of the disruption at one of the world's most important waterways — and some ships are already taking long detours via Africa. On Thursday, the Panama Canal Authority walked back a previous pledge to not limit passage as it gears up for a longer-than-usual El Nino season. 1. Where does the canal get its water?Unlike the Suez Canal in Egypt, the Panama Canal relies on fresh water to operate three sets of locks that allow ships to cross between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans through an 80-km (50-mile) artificial waterway. Operations depend on two man-made reservoirs, Gatun and Alajuela lakes, which release millions of liters of water with each transit to raise and lower ships through the gravity-fed, century-old locks.  2. Why does El Nino matter for the Panama Canal? Warming water half a world away in the Pacific Ocean can weaken the winds that bring rain to Panama — starving the reservoirs. Samuel Munoz, an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at Northeastern University, said that when reservoirs run low, the canal authority must cut the number of ships it allows through to conserve water — a reduction that "creates shipping disruptions that ripple through the global economic system." 3. Why are these water sources vulnerable? Since May, the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute's monitoring network in Panama has recorded some of the hottest air temperatures since monitoring began, with May, June and July each posting record or near-record monthly averages."Rainfall during the same period in most of Panama was well below average," said Steven Paton, who runs the monitoring network, adding that some stations are reporting record or near-record low values, particularly around the canal. 4. How is the Panama Canal Authority responding? The Panama Canal Authority will start capping daily transit slots at 34 vessels starting September 4 and reduce the number to 32 as of September 15. However, projections are for water levels to drop further as El Nino goes on, which could lead the authority to tighten again. It echoes the 2023-24 measures, when drought cut daily transits to as few as 22 ships, according to official figures. The canal registered an average of 34 to 35 daily transits for the fiscal year of 2026, which runs from October to September.  5. How does this impact shipping? After reports that one tanker paid more than $4mn for priority passage, the Panama Canal Authority, without giving further details, acknowledged that "some ships which transited recently have paid amounts exceeding $1mn dollars at auction to meet their specific market needs."  6. What alternatives are there?Rohit Rathod, a senior oil market analyst at Vortexa, said that without long-term slot packages or deep auction budgets, many shippers are taking the long way around Africa instead.So far this August, roughly half of gas carriers heading to Asia have chosen the Cape of Good Hope over the Panama Canal, he said, adding that this is the highest share in a decade.The tradeoff is steep: a large gas tanker sailing from Houston to Japan takes about 26 days through the Panama Canal — but 45 days around the Cape of Good Hope.7. What long-term solutions are being explored?  Panama is weighing a longer-term fix: a new reservoir at Rio Indio, which the Panama Canal Authority says would secure water for more than half the population and the canal's operation for the next 50 years, while improving conditions in nearby communities.Resistance comes from environmental activists, who were instrumental in blocking First Quantum's mining contract; some argue the reservoir is not necessary and point to alternatives such as Lake Bayano.  8. How does this El Nino compare to earlier ones? In its forecast issued last week, the Climate Prediction Center of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that El Nino is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a "very strong" event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.Clarksons Securities said in a research note this week that "El Nino is now emerging as a key risk" for a sector already grappling with capacity constraints and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

US trading partners in Asia started weighing fresh uncertainties on Saturday after President Donald Trump vowed to ‌impose a new tariff on imports, hours after the Supreme Court struck down many of the ​sweeping levies he used to ‌launch a global trade war.The court's ruling invalidated a number of tariffs that the Trump administration ‌had imposed on ⁠Asian export powerhouses from China and ‌South Korea to Japan and Taiwan, the ‌world's largest chip maker and a key player in tech supply chains.Within hours, Trump said he would impose ⁠a new 10% duty on US imports from all countries starting on Tuesday for an initial 150 days under a different law, prompting analysts to warn that more measures could follow, threatening more confusion for businesses and investors.In Japan, a government spokesman said Tokyo "will carefully examine the content of this ruling and the Trump administration's response to it, and respond appropriately."China, which is preparing to host Trump in late March, has yet to formally comment or launch any counter moves with the country on an extended holiday. But ​a senior financial official in China-ruled Hong Kong described the US situation as a "fiasco".Christopher Hui, Hong Kong's secretary for financial services and the treasury, Trump's new levy served to underscore Hong Kong's "unique trade advantages", Hui said."This shows the stability of Hong ‌Kong's policies and our certainty... it shows ⁠global investors the importance ​of predictability," Hui said at a media briefing on Saturday when asked how the new ​US tariffs would affect the city's economy.Hong Kong operates as a separate customs territory from mainland China, a status that has shielded it from direct exposure to US tariffs targeting Chinese goods.While Washington has imposed duties on mainland exports, Hong Kong-made products have generally faced lower tariff rates, allowing the city to maintain trade flows even as Sino-US tensions escalated.Before the Supreme Court's ruling, Trump's tariff push had strained Washington's diplomatic relations across Asia, particularly for export-reliant economies integrated into US-bound supply chains.Friday's ruling concerns only the tariffs launched by Trump on the basis of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, intended for national emergencies.Trade policy monitor Global Trade Alert estimated that by itself, the ruling cuts the trade-weighted average ‌U.S. tariff almost in half from 15.4% to ‌8.3%.For those countries on higher US ⁠tariff levels, the change is more dramatic. For China, Brazil and India, it will mean double-digit percentage point cuts, ⁠albeit to still-high levels.In Taiwan, the government ⁠said it was monitoring the situation closely, noting that the US government had yet to determine how to fully implement its trade deals with many countries."While the initial impact on Taiwan appears limited, the government will closely monitor developments and maintain close communication with the US to understand specific implementation details and respond appropriately," a cabinet statement said.Taiwan has signed two recent deals with the US — one was a Memorandum of Understanding last month that committed Taiwan to invest $250bn and the second was signed this month to lowering reciprocal tariffs.Analysts say the Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's more aggressive tariff measures may offer little relief for the global economy. They warned of looming confusion as trading nations brace for moves by Trump to find other means of using levies to circumvent the ruling.Thailand's Trade Policy and Strategy Office head Nantapong Chiralerspong said the ruling might even benefit its exports as uncertainty drove a fresh round of "front loading", where shippers race to move goods to the US, fearing even higher tariffs.In corporate disclosures tracked by Reuters, firms across the Asia-Pacific region reported financial hits, supply shifts and withdrawals as levies ‌escalated through 2025 and early ​2026. 

The Minister of Finance His Excellency Ali bin Ahmed al-Kuwari emphasised that Qatar’s LNG expansion strategy is helping to buffer against falling oil prices, ensuring stability in revenues and long-term resilience.He was speaking at the panel discussion titled ‘Global Trade Tensions: Economic Impact and Policy Responses in Mena’ held Saturday on the sidelines of the Doha Forum 2025.HE al-Kuwari noted that diversification has been central to Qatar’s 2030 national vision strategy since 2008, with growth increasingly coming from non-oil sectors, such as technology, manufacturing, logistics, and tourism. “Most of the growth in the economy is coming from the non-oil sector. For example, the first six months, GDP this year was 5.3% in growth from the non-oil GDP,” he said.HE al-Kuwari highlighted Qatar’s fiscal discipline, pointing to a 20-year framework that guides debt reduction, investment allocation, and reserve building. This approach has already reduced net debt from 58% in 2021 to 45%, earning Qatar an AA rating from all three major agencies — the highest in the region, he pointed out.The minister also stressed Qatar’s readiness to face global shocks, including recessions, thanks to fiscal buffers and disciplined policy. “Of course...Qatar has been very resilient. We’ve been resilient to many shocks,” emphasised HE al-Kuwari, who assured that the economy is ready in the event of a recession. 

The opening of the Doha Forum 2025 tomorrow will witness Qatar’s Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs His Excellency Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani speaking at the first panel discussion, titled 'Mediation in a Time of Fragmentation’.His Excellency Sheikh Mohammed will be joined by Kaja Kallas, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President, European Commission; Jose Manuel Albares, Minister of Foreign Affairs, European Union, and Cooperation, Spain; and Hakan Fidan, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Türkiye at the session, which will be moderated by CNN’s Chief International Anchor.Themed ‘Justice in Action: Beyond Promises to Progress’, the 23rd Doha Forum will take place at Sheraton Grand, Doha from December 6-7 under the patronage of His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani.Bringing together world leaders, policymakers, and experts from across the globe, organisers noted that the Forum will convene diverse voices to exchange perspectives and explore pathways toward a more just, balanced and sustainable world.Part of the programme also includes a Newsmaker Interview at 11.45am with Minister of State for Energy Affairs and Qatar Energy president and CEO His Excellency Saad Sherida al-Kaabi.Dr Majed al-Ansari, Advisor to the Prime Minister and official spokesperson for Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs will speak at a session on ‘Gulf – EU Relations in the Age of Strategic Isolation’, at 12pm, along with high-level participants from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Germany, and Italy.A session, titled ‘Global Trade Tensions: Economic Impact and Policy Responses in MENA;’ will see Qatar’s Minister of Finance His Excellency Ali Ahmed al-Kuwari sharing his views on how countries in the MENA region navigate rising global trade and policy uncertainty.Qatar Museums chairperson Her Excellency Sheikha Al Mayassa bint Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani will also take part in a talk on ‘Humanity’s Next Chapter: Innovation and Impact from the Global South’, along with Gates Foundation chair Bill Gates, and Dangote Foundation president Aliko Dangote. Al Jazeera principal presenter Folly Bah Thibault will moderate this discussion at 4.30pm. 

Fed widely expected to cut interest rate amid moderate inflationBank of Japan likely to maintain current policy rateTrump set to meet Xi at APEC summitThe US dollar rose to a more-than-two-week high against the yen on Monday at the start of a packed week of global trade negotiations and central bank meetings.The Australian dollar climbed as signs of progress in trade talks between the US and China bolstered demand for higher-yielding assets. The Japanese yen slid to record lows against the euro and Swiss franc.US President Donald Trump is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday, where the pair will decide on the framework of a trade deal hashed out over the weekend. And while Trump is travelling in Asia, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its policy interest rate after moderate inflation figures on Friday."Looking ahead we think that dollar firmness is likely to remain in the near term," Mahjabeen Zaman, head of foreign exchange research at ANZ, said on a podcast. "Fed cuts are fully priced in for October and December meetings. So if anything, any cautious communication from the Fed would likely be more supportive for the US dollar."The dollar rose 0.1% to 153.03 yen and touched 153.26, the strongest since October 10. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against select peers, was little changed at 98.90.The euro was steady at $1.163, while the common currency strengthened to as high as 178.13 yen, an all-time high. The Swiss franc reached 192.27 yen, also a record.Sterling strengthened 0.1% to $1.3327. The Aussie gained 0.4% versus the greenback to $0.6541.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said trade talks on the sidelines of a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur have eliminated the possibility of the US imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1.Bessent also said he expects China to delay implementation of its rare earth minerals and magnets licensing regime by a year while the policy is reconsidered."We've obviously had a pretty risk-positive start to the week, given the weekend news on the various trade discussions," said Ray Attrill, head of foreign exchange research at National Australia Bank. "At the moment, I'd say positive risk sentiment is still, at the margin, playing negatively for the US dollar."Trump and Xi are due to meet on Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, to sign off on trade terms. Ahead of that, Trump visits Japan from Monday and will hold a summit the following day with the nation's new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi.The Fed is widely expected to lower its current benchmark interest rate of 4% to 4.25% by another quarter percentage point when it decides on policy on Wednesday, a view supported by tamer-than-estimated inflation data on Friday.With that rate move already factored into asset prices, markets are likely to be more sensitive to any forward-looking language from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with the central bank expected to cut rates further at its next meeting in December.In Japan, the central bank is likely to debate this week whether conditions are ripe to resume rate hikes as worries about a tariff-induced recession ease.Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to keep its policy rate steady at 0.5% at the October 29-30 meeting. Prime Minister Takaichi has called for BOJ cooperation in achieving inflation driven more by gains in wages.

QNB confirmed that the beginning of 2025 was accompanied by cautiously positive expectations for global trade growth, supported by relative stability in the world economy. However, new shifts in US trade policy have significantly affected the global economic landscape. The bank's weekly report noted that the decision of the United States on Apr. 2 to impose broad tariffs including duties of no less than 10 percent on imports and higher rates on selected countries has led to rising concerns about supply chain disruptions, increased uncertainty, and the potential escalation of trade disputes. The report stated that, as a result, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has forecast a contraction in global trade volumes for the current year, an occurrence that is rare and typically seen only in exceptional circumstances such as the 2009 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The report explained that economic indicators since April 2025 have shown notable resilience in the global economy despite existing challenges. It projected that global trade growth in 2025 will be modest compared to previous periods, but will remain far beyond the most pessimistic scenarios. This outlook is supported by three main factors. The first factor highlighted in the report is that leading indicators, particularly from highly integrated Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam, reflect strong export activity, signaling a recovery in global trade. These markets recorded an average annual growth rate of 6 percent in 2024, with the rate accelerating to 12 percent in the last four months of the year despite trade tensions. The report also pointed to Chinese export growth of 6 percent during the same period, reflecting sustained global demand. In this context, the report stated that investor expectations regarding the earnings of transportation-sector companies serve as an important indicator of future global trade trends. The Dow Jones Transportation Average in the United States, which includes companies involved in air, land, and sea transport as well as rail and delivery services, reached its lowest annual growth level in mid-2024 before rebounding into positive territory, signaling a possible expansion of trade.This improvement reflects a decline in pessimism even amid continued trade shocks. The gap between strong Asian export growth and the more cautious profit expectations of transport companies was attributed to the increase in early shipments to the US market in anticipation of further tariff threats. The second factor concerns a significant decrease in the likelihood of large-scale global trade wars despite the rise of US protectionist policies. The report explained that the conclusion of US negotiations with key trading partners, including the United Kingdom, Japan, and the European Union, has clearly reduced uncertainty and lowered the probability of expanding tariff measures. At the same time, most global economies are moving toward greater trade integration through multilateral agreements, which reduces the negative impact of protectionist policies and strengthens the stability of the global trading system. The third factor relates to monetary policy. The report considered that waves of monetary easing adopted by major central banks are expected to provide additional support for global trade growth in the coming period. It noted that the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 125 basis points next year, bringing it down to 3.25 percent by the end of 2026, in an effort to reduce borrowing costs and stimulate economic activity. Similarly, the European Central Bank has lowered its key rate by 200 basis points since mid-2024 to settle at 2 percent.The report emphasized that interest rates are a decisive factor in supporting investment and boosting consumer spending, which are two key pillars of global trade, particularly given that the United States and the euro area together account for about 40 percent of global GDP. The bank concluded its report by affirming that the outlook for 2025 indicates a tangible improvement in the prospects for global trade compared to the more pessimistic scenarios that followed Washington's announcement of broad tariffs. It pointed out that a combination of positive economic indicators, accommodative monetary policies, and the signing of new trade agreements is helping to limit the repercussions of geopolitical and economic tensions and to support the stability of the global trading system in the upcoming period.

Despite the challenges posed by higher US tariff rates, the global economy will remain largely resilient against the uncertainty and the disruptions in global trade flows, according to QNB.At the beginning of the year, the global outlook pointed to steady economic growth, against a backdrop of cautious optimism. Tailwinds included the policy rate cutting cycles by major central banks, resilient growth of the US economy, cyclical recoveries in China and the Euro Area, and constructive overall investor sentiment, QNB noted in an economic commentary.Growth in both Advanced Economies (AE) and Developing Economies (DE) was initially expected to remain unchanged compared to last year, adding up to a world economic expansion rate of 3.3%.But the optimistic tone began to shift as the new US administration embarked on an aggressive agenda of policy change, with sweeping implications for the global macroeconomic landscape.On April 2, a day that came to be known as “Liberation Day,” President Trump announced sweeping tariffs, including a 10% baseline levy on all imports, and higher rates on selected countries.Financial markets reacted sharply to the announcements, with global stocks tumbling on fears of broader and deeper trade wars, as well as tainted policy credibility.The outlook narrative then debated the odds of a world recession. At its worst moment, growth expectations for the global economy dropped from the recent peak by 0.5 percentage point (p.p.) to 2.8%, a significant downgrade in a very short period of time.Since then, asset prices have recovered, with key indices reaching new highs, as the more negative trade-war scenarios were ruled out, AI-driven growth tailwinds regained the spotlight, and corporate profits remained robust.According to QNB, growth expectations have stabilised and even slightly recovered. The group of AE, which represents 40% of the world economy, is now expected to grow 1.5% this year, from a low of 1.4%.More significantly, after falling 0.5 p.p. to 3.7%, expectations for growth in the Developing Economies (DE) climbed to 4.1%, re-gaining most of the previous losses.Thus, recovering growth projections across the AE and DE groups are contributing to improving the outlook for global economic growth, which is expected to reach 3%.In QNB’s view, despite the challenges posed by higher US tariff rates, the global economy will remain largely resilient against the uncertainty and the disruptions in global trade flows.QNB has discussed two key factors that support its view of an improving global economic outlook.First, the US administration has concluded a first set of negotiations, which helped moderate uncertainty and discard the most extreme negative scenarios. The initially unyielding position of President Trump shifted towards pragmatism as deals were reached with the UK, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and the EU, among others, narrowing the range of potential tariff rates for the rest of the world. Furthermore, even as the US has become more protectionist, the rest of the world is largely continuing to move in the opposite direction.From the European Union (EU) to Asia and Latin America, most major economies continue to view trade as essential to their growth models, and are actively pursuing deeper integration via new or deeper trade agreements. Even as the world adjusts to a more protectionist US, the outlook on global trade has improved, contributing to a less pessimistic growth scenario.Second, monetary policy easing cycles by major central banks will contribute to improve overall financial conditions and the stability of the global economy. Bringing inflation under control has allowed the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), the two most important central banks in the AE, to start their interest rate cutting cycles.In the US, the Federal Reserve is set to cut its policy interest rate by 125 basis points over the next year, while the ECB could implement one more cut, bringing its benchmark rate to 1.75%. Stock markets have staged a notable recovery backed by resilient corporate earnings, while corporate credit spreads are narrowing, signalling improved market sentiment and easier credit for firms.The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) provides an informative summary of the overall state of markets, and is signalling that improving conditions are reducing borrowing costs for households and business, adding support to consumption and investment.“All in all, the global outlook initially deteriorated sharply after the US tariff announcements, but pessimism has gradually subsided on the back of improving prospects for international trade and better financial conditions supporting consumption and investment, leading to a broad based upgrade of performance expected across the AE and the DE,” QNB added.