tag

The World Bank expects Qatar's real GDP growth to reach 2.8% in 2025, with public fiscal surpluses remaining strong.The World Bank's report, released on Thursday under the title "Digital Transformation in the Gulf: A Powerful Driver of Economic Diversification," states that non-oil sectors in Qatar have maintained their strength even amid declining oil and gas prices. It adds that the expansion of the North Field will drive a substantial increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, further strengthening Qatar's role in meeting global market needs.The report highlights three key themes: the evolution of economic diversification indicators over the past decade; tracking macroeconomic developments; and spotlighting digital transformation, all against a backdrop of global uncertainty and oil market volatility.The report reviews the progress of economic diversification efforts across GCC countries over the past decade, noting moderate advancement, with some promising recent indicators. However, the report stresses that the oil sector still dominates, shaping economic conditions, development strategies, and national plans.Meanwhile, non-oil exports remain modest, with chemicals topping the list, indicating that the process of shifting away from oil dependence still requires sustained efforts.The report also highlights the rapid digital transformation underway in the Gulf and the accelerated adoption of artificial intelligence.GCC countries boast high-quality telecommunications networks, with over 90% 5G coverage and affordable high-speed Internet. Significant investments in data centres and high-performance computing are strengthening AI readiness.Progress is further supported by robust ecosystems of incentives, finance, and innovation, as well as the adoption of generative AI applications within government operations.Commenting on the findings, World Bank's Division Director for the GCC countries, Safaa El Tayeb El Kogali, stated that diversification and digital transformation are no longer luxuries; they are necessities for long-term economic stability and prosperity. Strategic investments in non-oil sectors and innovation will be essential for sustaining growth and economic resilience.She added that the digital leap achieved by GCC countries is remarkable. Strong infrastructure, growing computing capabilities, and expanding AI talent pools position the region for leadership and innovation, provided environmental and labour-market challenges are addressed proactively.The report also points out that women's participation in STEM fields in the Gulf exceeds the global average, boosting the region's digital competitiveness. To maximise the benefits of diversification and digital transformation, the Gulf Economic Update recommends supporting SMEs in adopting AI to strengthen the innovation landscape and implementing skills-training programmes to address labour-market gaps.The report stresses that regional co-operation in digital infrastructure and the creation of AI centres of excellence are crucial to building unified digital markets and driving transformation across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. 

Qatar’s GDP growth will more than double in 2026-2027, with both the energy and non-energy sectors contributing positively this year and beyond, according to Oxford Economics.The researcher’s 2025 GDP growth forecast is unchanged at 2.4%, similar to the pace of expansion last year. However, trade-related uncertainty will remain a headwind to global demand, it said in a country report.Oxford Economics thinks growth in Qatar’s energy sector will remain modest this year, following a 0.6% expansion in 2024, before picking up strongly in 2026-2027.According to Oxford Economics, Qatar isn't involved in the OPEC+ pact on production quotas and its oil output has been relatively flat in recent years, at around 600,000 barrels per day.Last year, the authorities doubled down on the North Field gas expansion project, which will have a positive medium-term impact. Qatar raised its liquefied natural gas capacity target to 142mn tonnes per year by end-2030.This is up nearly 85% from the current 77mtpy, and up 13% on the intermediate target of 126mtpy by 2027. The first production boost will come from the North Field East project by mid-2026, followed by the North Field South phase of the expansion.The North Field West phase is in its early stages, with construction likely to begin in 2027.Qatar is also making progress in contracting future gas output. The government has signed long-term supply contracts with India, China, France, Germany, Hungary, Kuwait, and Taiwan, and is negotiating a deal with Japan.Output data (reported in April this year) showed the non-energy economy expanded by 3.4% last year, and the researcher projects the same pace of growth in 2025.The 2025 budget targets a deficit of QR13.2bn (1.6% of projected GDP). The authorities plan to raise spending by 4.6% relative to last year's budget and 1.2% relative to realised expenditure, with a strong focus on development in education and healthcare. The bill assumes an average oil price of $60/barrel.It projects a surplus of QR23bn (2.8% of GDP), larger than the surplus of QAR5.6bn (0.7% of GDP) realised in 2024. The researcher sees the balance improving to 5.7% of GDP next year amid the LNG production boost.Oxford Economics also noted tourism has provided significant support to non- energy growth and will remain a driver of future activity and employment.Qatar welcomed 5.1mn overnight arrivals in 2024, a 25% increase on 2023 and 138% higher than 2019 levels. The launch of the pan-GCC visa will likely help extend the positive performance and we forecast arrivals to increase to 5.3mn this year, it said.