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The largest stock market crashes have occurred in September or October. The Panic of 1907 began in mid-October, the Wall Street crash of 1929 saw its biggest falls on 24 and 29 October, the ‘Black Monday’ crash of 1987 was on 19 October, while the collapse of Lehman Brothers that triggered the banking crisis occurred in September 2008.President Trump has made no secret of his desire for lower interest rates. Will he push them towards zero, and might this be one of the triggers for market corrections?Are we heading for a similar crash? By any conventional indicators, stock market valuations are overheated. The problem is that this has been the case for some months, and those ignoring the warning signs have profited.The investment boom in AI is believed by many to herald such a huge boost to business productivity that traditional indicators of company valuation are no longer valid – but of course the phrase ‘This time is different’ is itself a warning sign. It is the title of a book on investment bubbles and crashes, written by economists Carmen M Reinhart and Kenneth S Rogoff and published in 2009, shortly after the start of the financial crisis.There are two strong indicators that this time is really no different to earlier bubbles. The first is that at least some of the investment in AI may be misplaced. There is little doubt that the rapid development of highly powerful AI tools holds the potential for significant productivity gains. It is less certain, however, that the big bet on massively increasing the capacity of data centres in the quest for an ultra-high level of synthetic intelligence is going to pay off in a direct way.A study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in August reported that 95% of AI pilot schemes did not result in better business performance. In mid-September JP Morgan Asset Management warned that valuations in AI were ‘stretched’, such that only a small disappointment in earnings could prompt a sell-off. The scale of investment in data centres to power AI is in the order of $3tn, around half of which comes from the capital of big tech companies, but a high proportion is funded by private credit, which is comparatively opaque, and is linked to the banking system.It is a near-certainty that many venture capital-backed AI start-ups will fail, but the extent of this and the impact on the wider economy is difficult to gauge.Evidence is emerging of productivity gains from AI – but these emerge from smarter and more focused use of bespoke AI tools, allied to the most intelligent human direction. Small language models (SLMs) may be more effective than LLMs in many business applications, which is great news for those firms that get it right – but less so for the investors who have bet big on scaling up.It is all but inevitable that a major new technology will feature a bubble. It has occurred with railways in the 19th century, and dotcom firms and supportive infrastructure in the late 1990s. Even when the bubble bursts, it is only a serious problem for the wider economy if it affects the banking industry such that loans dry up for other parts of the economy, heralding a recession.The second major risk factor is the pro-cyclical behaviour of the President of the US in slashing interest rates and encouraging speculation. Just before the financial crash of 2007-08, Chuck Prince, then the CEO of Citibank, famously said that as long as the music is playing, you need to dance. President Donald Trump is now the one trying to keep the music playing.President Trump encourages stock market investment, and authorised the US government to purchase a 10% stake in the chip manufacturer Intel – an extraordinary decision.He has also pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, expressing a desire both for ultra-low rates and a weaker dollar. The official US interest rate was duly cut in mid-September, by 25 basis points, to 4-4.25%.It is unusual for interest rates to be reduced to very low levels in non-recessionary conditions. Inflation is not very high, but it is above the nominal target of 2% and in August it edged upwards to 2.9% from 2.7%. There are, however, indicators of credit delinquency and other signs of financial stress among some consumers.There is likely to be at least one more cut of the same amount before the end of 2025, and probably two. Nominally, the Federal Reserve is independent of the White House, but President Trump has made his desire for lower rates very public. The courts have so far paused his efforts to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Board. His own nominee for the board, Stephen Miran, has been approved.There is another risk factor: Less reliable economic statistics. In early August, President Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, complaining that the employment data, weaker than expected, were incorrect. In addition, budget cuts at the Bureau have meant a reduction in the data points that feed into the official statistics.The US is exhibiting some of the features more normally associated with emerging economies: A President over-reaching his authority, compromised independence of key institutions, concern over the accuracy of economic data. This does not mean we are about to witness economic meltdown and hyper-inflation in the US, given the depth and strength of its internal economy, but there are signs of weaker long-term stability.A near-certainty is the continued increase in US public sector debt, and erosion of the value of paper money. The gold price has risen from $2,600 per ounce less than a year ago to around $3,800 per ounce by late September. Gold now forms a greater proportion of central bank reserves than US Treasuries for the first time since 1996.As regards the investment bubble, is this time different? In many respects, no. Will there be a market crash in October? It is never possible to be certain, but there are many red warning signs.The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions.

The exceptionally muscular approach of President Donald Trump towards economic policy has revealed itself in direct efforts to undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve. He has made open personal criticisms of the chairman Jay Powell, and made overt attempts to have Lisa Cook, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, removed over an allegation related to a mortgage application.President Trump’s determination to oversee a devaluation of the dollar and lower interest rates will have direct effects on the Gulf, but will it bring a welcome stimulus or excessive inflation?In addition to the issue of whether his criticisms and actions are justified in terms of domestic politics, there are global implications to his actions and the direction of policy, with a particular impact on Gulf nations.President Trump’s strategic objective on economic policy is to oversee a devalued dollar, reduced trade deficits, and onshoring of production. A lower interest rate, for the short and medium term at least, is a central part of this policy, in addition to tariffs, so he has been frustrated that the current Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve has not made a reduction in 2025, following the three cuts totalling 100 basis points, between September and December 2024.The Federal Reserve has considered inflationary pressures to be too significant to justify a cut, but the pressure is growing, moreover Jay Powell’s term comes to an end next year, and the successor regime is likely to have a more dovish approach. It is likely that there will be two or three cuts this year. This, combined with continued rise in public debt, amount to an exceptionally loose fiscal policy. On the day after President Trump confirmed his intention to seek the removal of Lisa Cook, yields on long-dated US Treasuries rose significantly, confirming that while domestic checks and balances to his policies are weakened, he cannot avoid having to placate the international bond market.For the Gulf nations, there will be significant and direct effects. Most Gulf nations, including Qatar, have currencies that are pegged to the dollar. The Qatar Central Bank will effectively have to follow interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the riyal is set to depreciate in value against the Euro and Renminbi.The current interest rate in Qatar is 5.1%, higher than the US rate of 4.25-4.5%, and the Qatar Central Bank would like to reduce the gap. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points this year, I would expect the Qatar rate to be 60 basis points lower.There will be a stimulus effect to this. Reduced returns for cash will stimulate business investments, and there is set to be a particularly positive impact on the real estate sector.On the downside, there are risks to inflation. Qatar imports around 90% of the goods that it needs, so as the effective cost rises as the riyal declines in value, imported inflation is likely to feature. While many invoices are in dollars, if the euro, renminbi and rupee appreciate in value against the dollar, costs in those currency areas will rise and the cost is likely to be passed on.This means that policymakers in Qatar will have to rely on measures other than the principal interest rate to curb inflation. This policy should be easier to implement than a decade ago, when inflationary pressures were also significant. This was because the state was embarking on a significant program of public sector investment, primarily to modernise infrastructure ahead of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. That phase is now complete, so the economy should be able to absorb additional stimulus without significant inflation rises, but it will be a feature to manage.Another side effect of Trump’s policies is appreciation of tangible assets, as the value of fiat currencies falls. Gold has appreciated considerably, and has been stockpiled by central banks, including China’s. Holdings of gold by central banks now represent a bigger share than US Treasuries, for the first time since 1996. The price of gold leapt from around $2,500 per ounce in late 2024 to above $3,600 by September 2025.Other precious metals, as well as land, real estate and rare earth metals, are also likely to appreciate in value, or stay at an elevated level. Oil and gas prices will likely also rise, to the advantage of the Qatar exchequer as liquefied natural gas (LNG) is the primary export.There should be bullish prospects also for Qatari equities. The stimulus promises growth and with a downward nudge in the value of the riyal, they may appear cheap.To an extent, President Trump is achieving his policy aims: the dollar is declining in value – down around 11% in the first half of 2025 – tariff receipts have increased, interest rates are likely to be forced down.The risks to the US are considerable, however, as a long-term decline in the value of the dollar combined with high and rising public sector deficits and debt can cause instability and nervousness in the bond markets. An independent Federal Reserve had an uneven record on curbing US inflation, but if there is little concerted effort to keep it under control, we may be heading for uncharted territory. Outcomes for Gulf states, however, may be surprisingly benign.The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions.

Universal healthcare coverage for all citizens is a challenge for all governments. The better the treatment and freer the access, the longer the waiting lists. There is invariably a case of finite resources trying to meet demand that is effectively infinite, or at least inexorably rising. Healthcare inflation has outstripped general inflation, reaching 10-12% in many countries, and people’s expectations of both availability of health services and the standard of care rise. Also, increased life expectancy can mean that people are living longer, but sometimes with chronic conditions. Qatar is pursuing a smart policy of boosting private sector healthcare and health tourism while maintaining universal coverage. Can it square the circle of combining quality and accessibility? So the approach of Qatar merits attention. Health is a national priority beneath the Qatar Vision framework. State provision is of a high standard, through the Hamad Medical Corporation. The HMC runs the country’s principal not-for-profit hospital, the Hamad General Hospital, which is to be the subject of a major three-year renovation programme. While services will remain open during the refurbishment, some outpatient and inpatient services will be relocated. Renovation will include upgrading buildings for inpatients. There will be single rooms, higher standard facilities and investment in new technology. During the renovation, Ministers have perceived an opportunity to maintain or enhance health services for citizens and expats, while boosting the private sector and developing health tourism. In May HE the Minister of Public Health Mansoor bin Ebrahim al-Mahmoud met representatives of the insurance sector, as part of a policy to encourage the development of health insurance. In 2013-2015 the Government set up a state-run insurance scheme called SEHA, but there were problems with costs and over-claiming, subsequently it perceives partnership with private insurance providers as a superior approach. Meanwhile, the Government has signed contracts with four private sector hospitals to provide treatment for uninsured patients on public hospital waiting lists. The state will pick up the cost in full. This reduces waiting lists while helping to develop private sector provision, in terms of both quality and scale. An additional advantage in developing a strong private medical sector is to make Qatar a favoured destination for health tourism. This was confirmed at the Qatar Economic Forum 2025, held in May, where HE Saad bin Ali al-Kharji, the Chairman of Qatar Tourism, said that positioning Qatar as a destination for health tourists was a strategic aim. Major investment in hotels, transport facilities and other key aspects of infrastructure in preparation for the FIFA World Cup in 2022 means that facilities in the country are world class. In addition, there is a high-quality, well-regarded national airline. Private sector hospitals have high-standard facilities and highly skilled doctors, helped by a favourable visa programme. Health spending has reached 12% of the national budget, which is high by international standards. There is investment in technology, including specialist AI applications that can help with diagnosis and treatment. Qatar is preparing a medical visa programme, to smooth the bureaucracy for a health tourist visitor. Omar al-Jaber, head of the Tourism Development Sector at Visit Qatar, has stated that this measure will encourage visitors for wellness and preventative treatments at resorts, as well as advanced medical procedures such as surgical operations. All the elements are in place for Qatar to compete directly with other nations that attract health tourists, such as Singapore, Dubai and Thailand. This sector is long-established globally, and has become diversified to include wellness destination and places for recuperation. Qatar now hosts a centre, the Zulal Wellness Resort, run by the Chiva-Som branded wellness retreat, established in Thailand 30 years ago. In terms of tourism, Qatar has been successful in attracting visitors for stopover tours, helped by the high reputation of Qatar Airways and the geographical location of the Gulf in between major continents. Health tourism and wellness stays would typically be longer than the four or five days of a stopover visit. Attention has been paid to every aspect of a tourist’s visit: transport infrastructure, quality of hotels, friendliness of welcome, cleanliness of resorts, personal security and quality of attractions. There is a target for the Qatar state to attract 6mn-7mn visitors by 2030, with tourism reaching 15% of GDP. Helped by investment in healthcare as well as infrastructure for vacation visits, this is looking like a feasible target. The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions.

During a year of tumultuous events in geopolitics, much of the global economy, and stock prices, have remained buoyant. This may not be the contradiction it appears. Despite what appears to be significant potential for economic disruption, some investors have adopted an attitude of ‘nothing ever happens’, to counter a tendency to over-react to events provoking headlines that have – or may have – little lasting economic impact. The buoyancy of the stock market despite geopolitical tensions and trade wars highlights the risk of over-reacting to the news. Some investors adopt a mantra of ‘nothing ever happens’ – but are they under-estimating looming risks? The ‘nothing ever happens’ mantra is not a matter of ignoring global events, but rather coolly assessing the actual economic impact. Of course, some turbulent events in geopolitics are notable more for their potential, than the short-term reality. Threats or hints of nuclear weapons being used are unlikely to lead to an actual nuclear war, but the risk of nuclear weapons being fired in anger is not zero, so it is one to watch. In the financial markets, weak signals that could herald a shock on the scale of 2008 are observable – high valuations in the stock market, also in crypto at a time of weak regulation – but it is impossible to gauge if these signals are a harbinger of an impactful crash, or whether they remain weak. And if there is a shock, could it occur this year, or in five years’ time? If one looks historically at the events that have had a major economic impact, there have been few. Examples include the oil price shocks of 1973-74 and 1979-81 which led to stagflation in many economies, and the financial crash and banking bailouts of 2008 – although the impact of the latter was largely confined to western economies which had banks directly exposed; Gulf countries were largely unaffected. Of greater impact globally was the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020-22, owing the strict lockdowns. It is long established in the academic disciplines of cognitive behavioural psychology and behavioural finance that, as a species, we are more drawn to dramatic and negative developments than benign ones; loss aversion is more powerful than the prospect of gains, and bad or shocking news is effective as clickbait. This means that the discipline of staying informed through news media can result, paradoxically, in a skewed understanding of global developments. Complicating the issue is that much news is gathered through social media that is not fact-checked. In its 2024 Global Risks Report, the World Economic Forum cited disinformation as the most serious destabilising factor for the short-term, citing the use of deepfake videos and other misuses of AI. These phenomena lend weight to the idea of downplaying the significance of narratives shaped by headlines. Another element is that, far from ‘nothing’ happening, there is too much. The projections from early 2025 by many economists of the impact of President Trump’s tariff policy have been way off, with a typical estimate of 0.1% reduction of GDP for each 1% added to tariffs proving to be inaccurate. The issue may be the sheer complexity and interconnectedness of the global economy, which makes it is doubtful that it can be modelled or projected in a meaningful way. Economic historians note that protectionist policies were likely a significant cause of the Great Depression in the 1930s. In the 2020s, trade of goods is, proportionately, a smaller part of the economy, compared with services, including much activity that is online. Entrepreneurialism and business growth are now global phenomena. It would probably be impossible accurately to quantify this proportion, but one proxy indicator is that only around 17% of the earnings on the S&P 500 are directly affected by tariffs, according to an analysis by Deutsche Bank. Moreover, while the US is the biggest market, it is around 24% of global GDP, compared with over 40% in the 1960s. There is a risk that the ‘nothing ever happens’ movement could under-estimate the impact of a succession of developments which, individually, may not amount to much but which cumulatively can become impactful. These include President Trump’s tariffs, his firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the rise of public debt in the US and other western economies, the concentration of stock market gains within just a few tech firms, Trump’s threats to the chairman of the Federal Reserve, his deregulation of crypto. Some of these individually may be judged to be of minor significance, but the accumulation may be beginning to be felt. Of these, probably of greatest long-term significance is rising debt, which means an increasing proportion of government expenditure being devoted to interest payments placing pressure on public services, and the progressive erosion of value of fiat currencies. The prices of tangible assets, such as gold, property and land, have been appreciating. This slow, long-term development will almost certainly become of greater magnitude, in economic terms, than many of the more dramatic developments that prompt headlines. The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions