It’s been about 17 years since banks sent global equity benchmarks plunging to distressed levels during the financial crisis. In Spain and Italy, an unstoppable surge in shares of the country’s biggest lenders is finally wiping out those losses.Spain’s Ibex 35 Index claimed its first record high since 2007 in October, and Italy’s FTSE MIB has hit the highest level since 2001 last month. These rallies have been overwhelmingly propelled by banks, which account for almost 70% of the gains in Spain this year and nearly 80% of those in Italy, with lenders making up nearly 40% of the benchmarks by weight.“Spanish and Italian banks are now much better and more solid businesses than 20 years ago,” said Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank. “Balance sheets are less leveraged, as loan-to-deposit ratios are below 100%, reliance on interbank and capital markets for funding has been greatly reduced, and now have more diversified income sources.”Europe’s best-performing sector so far this year, the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, is up 56% compared with a 14% gain in the broader benchmark. Spanish banks have emerged as clear standouts, providing four of the sector’s top 10 stocks in 2025. Strong earnings, generous investor payouts, improving economic prospects and industry consolidation supported the shares of lenders in the two southern European countries and beyond.“Southern European banks screen as attractive given their strong profitability, with Iberian and Italian banks set to deliver mid- to high-teen ROTEs,” said Goldman Sachs Group Inc analyst Sofie Peterzens, referring to return on tangible equity. This is supported “by reduced interest rate sensitivity, an improving volume outlook, disciplined cost management, significant deleveraging and de-risking over the past decade driving a benign cost of risk outlook, and a constructive macroeconomic backdrop,” she said.Since the start of 2021, bank-stock returns have entirely revolved around earnings growth. Forward earnings estimates for the Stoxx 600 Banks Index have surged 242%, even faster than the 206% price rally over the same period. That also means valuations are nearly 10% lower than they were back then.Banco Santander SA offers an illustration of transformation in Europe’s banking sector, growingly aggressively in recent decades to become a global heavyweight. Its last earnings included a sixth consecutive quarterly record profit, and the lender has become continental Europe’s most valuable bank.In Italy, successive crisis-era rescues, bad-loan cleanups and pressure from European regulators pushed weaker banks into mergers or resolution, turning a loss-making sector into one of Europe’s most profitable and resilient.Recent consolidation has been more voluntary: Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena September takeover of Mediobanca SpA created Italy’s third-largest lender by assets, while BPER Banca SpA secured control of smaller rival Banca Popolare di Sondrio SpA a few months earlier. UniCredit SpA withdrew its offer for Banco BPM SpA amid political opposition.“The regulatory overhang is behind us, and banks are finally seeing ratings that reflect the exit from a very long phase in which everything went against the financial system,” said Bruno Rovelli, BlackRock Inc.’s chief investment strategist for Italy.Across Europe, banks are far stronger than before the GFC, but their valuations lag pre-crisis levels. The forward price-to-earnings ratio for the Stoxx 600 Bank index is around 9.5, making it the cheapest sector in Europe after autos. Morgan Stanley analysts say that pre-GFC multiples are “once again possible” for European banks, leaving room for upside in the sector over the coming year.“Banks have outperformed the Nasdaq by a factor of two in the last three years. You would’ve done much better owning the SX7E than the hyperscaler AI,” Giles Rothbarth, portfolio manager and co-head of the European equity team at BlackRock, referring to the Euro Stoxx Banks Price Index. “That can continue because European banks remain the cheapest in the world.”What that means for national equity benchmarks in Italy and Spain may be less clear. Both countries’ economies are expected to keep growing as unemployment eases and inflation moderates, making for a positive backdrop for banks. And with the European Central Bank set to leave rates near current levels, lending revenue should hold up.“The Ibex has performed very well this year, but in reality what it has done is recover, because in previous years it had been lagging behind,” Rosa Duce, chief investment officer at the Spanish unit of Deutsche Bank, said. “Given that we still like the banking sector, we can expect the Ibex to continue doing well — but we shouldn’t assume it will keep outperforming the rest of the indexes, because what it has done now is mainly catch up.”
