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To President Donald Trump, the dollar is like a yo-yo that he can make go up and down. To equity investors, the toy looks broken — and a weaker dollar is now the latest obstacle they have to contend with when valuing stocks.The calculus is not easy, since a slumping dollar is hardly straight poison for the US stock market. Exporters will more readily find buyers, multinational companies will benefit from stronger overseas revenues.But it has drawbacks. American assets become less attractive, slowing the flow of funds into US companies and driving money to international markets. US manufacturers have to pay more for input materials produced abroad, potentially importing inflation for end products sold at home.The president insists he’s not worried about the dollar, no matter its latest slide — a comment that spooked forex traders and, eventually, led Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to reiterate the long-standing policy that Washington favours a strong currency. The greenback jumped Friday by the most since May, but still, it remains sharply lower than a year ago, and that has implications for equity traders.“Having a weakening dollar is a net negative for the US stock market,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management.He expects investors to reorient their portfolios to overweight export-oriented US stocks. And why not? Since the market bottomed on April 8, a Barclays Plc basket of companies that benefit from a weak dollar has soared 70% compared with 39% for the S&P 500. A basket of firms that benefit from a strong currency is up just 11%.The weak-dollar group includes Lam Research Corp, Freeport-McMoRan Inc and News Corp, all companies that get the bulk of revenues abroad. It’s up 8.1% just this month, as Bloomberg’s dollar index slid 1.3%. That bodes poorly for stocks like Dollar General Corp, Nucor Corp and Union Pacific Corp, which are among those that benefit from a strong greenback.The weak dollar is also sparking a rotation from US stocks into international equities, where returns in local currencies have starkly beaten American indexes.The S&P 500’s 1.4% gain in 2026 is not far behind the Stoxx Europe 600’s 3.2% gain. Factor in the dollar’s drop, though, and the US index is a bigger laggard. Europe’s benchmark is up 4.4%, stocks are 7.2% in Japan and an eye-popping 17% in Brazil.“There’s a lot of people both domestically in the US as well as internationally thinking about opportunities outside of the US because you’ll get the opportunity of a lower valuation and potentially the tailwind of currency on your side,” Zaccarelli said.The same dynamic played out last year, when many of those markets outperformed the S&P 500 in local currencies – and absolutely clobbered it when adjusted for the dollar.The relative performance can have a self-perpetuating effect. As overseas investors see their US holdings lose value in local currency terms, they become more inclined to pull money from American companies.“You want to own strengthening currencies,” said Michael Rosen, president and chief investment officer at Angeles Investment Advisors, which oversees nearly $47bn in assets.Dollar weakness is not all gravy for foreign markets, particularly for export-oriented economies like those in Taiwan and South Korea and Europe. Some of their biggest companies, like Samsung or Taiwan Semiconductor, may see margins crimped as local-currency revenues decline.Still, a softer greenback can act as a powerful macroeconomic tailwind as cheaper dollar funding eases global and local financial conditions, reducing the cost of capital for firms across the region. Key imports priced in dollars — from energy to raw materials — become cheaper, allowing companies to maintain or improve margins.“South Korea and Taiwan have traditionally been winners from dollar weakness,” said Gary Dugan, chief executive officer at Global CIO Office. “Singapore could benefit from capital flows as global investors seek strong currencies with yielding assets such as REITs.”Companies in the Stoxx 600 generate nearly 60% of their sales overseas, with many active in the US market, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. That compares with 15% to 28% for companies in the US, China and broader emerging market indexes.As a consequence, investors in European stocks have been picking companies that stay closer to home.“My strategy is to look at companies that produce locally and are not obliged to convert and repatriate earnings back,” said Gilles Guibout, portfolio manager at BNP Paribas AM. “Obviously, it’s also a strategy to favor domestic stocks that are little concerned by the fluctuation of the dollar.”An analysis by Citigroup strategists shows that a 10% rise in the euro versus the dollar could reduce European earnings per share by about 2%. Companies in the commodities, food and beverage, health-care, luxury goods and auto sectors are among the most exposed, they found.Importantly, a weak dollar is not determinative for stock prices or corporate earnings in the US. In the past 25 years, changes in the greenback and rolling annual per-share earnings growth in US stocks have had a correlation of just 0.04 on a quarterly basis, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.“Only sharp surges or selloffs in the dollar have historically mattered for index earnings,” BI analyst Nathaniel Welnhofer wrote.Arguably, stock investors are in a period of a sharp selloff — though the dollar advanced Friday after Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve. Bannockburn Capital Markets expects an 8% to 9% decline this year.A dollar rout of that magnitude is something traders haven’t had to grapple with in earnest for years. Washington’s official position since at least the 1980s has been that a strong currency is in the best interests of the US. Bessent reiterated that last week.Still, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has stumbled almost 10% since Trump’s inauguration, with currency traders souring on the greenback because of the administration’s actions. Trump has renewed tariff threats, ramped up pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and war-mongered to seek dominance of the Western hemisphere.“This is an administration that clearly wants a weaker dollar and the markets are going to give it to him,” Rosen said. 

The biggest oil producer in the United Arab Emirates agreed to supply liquefied natural gas to Indian Oil Corp for 15 years as it lines up more binding contracts for a new export terminal.Abu Dhabi National Oil Co will provide 1mn tonnes of LNG annually to the Indian state-run entity, primarily from the under-construction project at Ruwais, according to a statement Wednesday.Adnoc, which had signed a preliminary agreement in September, also has a deal to supply an additional 1.2mn tonnes a year of the fuel from its Das Island operations to Indian Oil.The two deals will make the Indian company Adnoc’s biggest LNG customer by 2029, said the UAE firm, which is locking in long-term customers for its export capacity following agreements with buyers from Germany to Malaysia. For India, the deals will help its plan to ramp up the share of gas in the country’s energy mix by the end of this decade, even though infrastructure bottlenecks are constraining the expansion.The Ruwais project is expected to start commercial operations in 2028, which will more than double the company’s LNG capacity to 15 million tons a year, Adnoc said.The company has committed over 8mn tonnes a year of the project’s 9.6mn-tonnes-a-year capacity to international customers through long-term agreements.Adnoc Gas Plc said last year that it expects to acquire its parent Adnoc’s 60% stake in the Ruwais project at cost in the second half of 2028.

Market EyeQatar remains among the top three LNG exporters globally in the latest data released by Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).Last month, global LNG exports surged by 12% y-o-y (3.83mn tonnes) to reach 36.55mn tonnes, a "record high" for the month and the "strongest" annual growth rate since July 2019.The increase was driven by higher exports from both GECF Member Countries and non-GECF countries, which more than offset a decline in LNG re-exports.Between January and July 2025, global LNG exports rose by 5.0% y-o-y (11.93mn tonnes) to reach 249.66mn tonnes, largely supported by gains from non-GECF exporters, and to a lesser extent by GECF Member Countries and LNG re-exports.Non-GECF countries remained the largest exporters in July, with their market share rising to 55.2%, up from 53.1% a year earlier.In contrast, the shares of GECF Member Countries and LNG re-exports declined from 45.5% and 1.4% to 44.3% and 0.5%, respectively.In July, LNG exports from GECF member and observer countries rose by 8.7% y-o-y (1.30mn tonnes) to reach 16.20mn tonnes. At the country level, Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Malaysia, Mauritania, Nigeria, Peru, Qatar, Senegal, and Trinidad and Tobago contributed to the increase, offsetting a decline in exports from the United Arab Emirates.From January to July, GECF LNG exports grew by 1.8% year-on-year (1.99mn tonnes) to 113.59mn tonnes. The additional volumes were mainly driven by Angola, Mauritania, Nigeria, Qatar, Senegal and Trinidad and Tobago.In Algeria and Malaysia, reduced maintenance activities at the Arzew and Bintulu LNG facilities, respectively, supported the rise in exports.Additionally, higher feedgas availability boosted LNG exports from Equatorial Guinea, Malaysia, Nigeria, Peru and Trinidad and Tobago. The ramp-up of production from the GTA FLNG 1 facility in Mauritania/Senegal continued to support growing export volumes from both countries.Qatar’s LNG export growth was supported by production exceeding the nameplate capacity at the Ras Laffan liquefaction complex, GECF data show.Conversely, the decline in LNG exports from the United Arab Emirates was attributed to planned maintenance at the Das Island LNG facility.In July, non-GECF countries’ LNG exports surged by 16% y-o-y (2.82mn tonnes) to reach 20.18mn tonnes, which is the second highest monthly LNG exports after March 2025.The stronger LNG exports was driven by Australia, Canada, Mexico, and the US, which together offset weaker LNG exports from Norway.Between January and July 2025, non-GECF LNG exports grew by 7.9% (9.80mn tonnes) y-o-y to 134.03mn tonnes, supported by stronger LNG exports from Canada, Mexico and the US.Stronger LNG output from Gorgon and Ichthys—due to reduced maintenance—boosted Australia’s LNG exports, offsetting lower flows from North West Shelf caused by limited feedgas.In Canada and Mexico, rising exports were driven by ramp-ups at LNG Canada and Altamira FLNG 1, respectively.The US saw the largest non-GECF increase, led by surging volumes from Corpus Christi, Freeport, and Plaquemines. Corpus Christi and Plaquemines benefited from new train ramp-ups, while Freeport’s gains stemmed from reduced maintenance and debottlenecking that expanded production capacity.