tag

Eurozone inflation slowed to 2% last month, capping a surprisingly benign year price-wise for ‌the currency bloc, even as questions linger about the delayed impact of US tariffs, ‌German stimulus and geopolitical stresses.The eurozone withstood unexpected turbulence from trade tensions, disappearing export markets and Chinese dumping last year, while domestic consumption finally kicked into gear and lower ⁠interest rates offered some relief.But this resilience ⁠is unlikely to give way to a boom, especially since deeply rooted structural rigidities keep holding back growth ‍and governments lack appetite for political compromise needed for deeper integration.Still, taming inflation is a clear victory for a bloc of 350mn people as price growth eased to 2.0% last month, in line with expectation, and was likely to hold near this level for years to come.A more important figure on underlying prices, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also eased to 2.3% from 2.4% on a modest slowdown in services and industrial goods inflation.The figures confirm economists' ‌central narrative that the eurozone is entering 2026 on a solid footing even as it faces exceptional uncertainty.US tariffs have not yet fully fed through to prices and firms are still adjusting their value chains, suggesting that ‍it could take much of 2026 for ⁠the picture to clear ‌up."We are very conscious that the impact of the current tariff levels is still feeding through in the data and that US trade policy may still change, for example due to a Supreme Court ruling on the IEEPA tariffs or because of US discontent about the existing deal," JPMorgan said in a note to clients.Another issue is German fiscal stimulus. The government is boosting spending on defence and infrastructure and economists widely expect a boost to growth, but the start of the spending splurge is slow and it could still take time before it shows up in the numbers.For now, the eurozone's biggest economy continues to skirt recession and its labour market is in the weakest shape in years.Deutsche Bank expects a fiscal impulse ​worth 1.4% of GDP this year, boosting ‌growth across Europe."The spillover benefits to the rest of the eurozone are a function of the composition of German fiscal spending, the degree of ⁠spare capacity in Germany and economic confidence outside ‍Germany," it said in note.Cheaper energy is also a boost since it reduces costs and improves the bloc's terms of trade given Europe's massive reliance on fossil fuel imports.Still, overall economic growth could slow to around 1.2% this year from 1.4% in 2025, as the bloc is also facing a drag on multiple fronts.Tariffs will keep on eating into exports, while China will continue to crowd out Europe from some of ​its key export markets. Industry keeps skirting recession on high costs, but the eurozone remains far too fragmented to produce at the sort of scale needed to compete globally.The ECB, which supported the economy over the past two years with a steady stream of rate cuts, is also unlikely to do more.Inflation is at target and dips below 2% are likely to be temporary, leaving the outlook rather balanced, especially in the medium term — the bank's relevant horizon.This is why financial markets expect unchanged rates at each of the ECB's eight meeting this year and see some policy tightening next year."We expect rates to ⁠remain stable this year and continue to think further easing would require significant downside surprises, either on the growth or inflation front," Leo Barincou at Oxford Economics said. 

Eurozone inflation ‌slowed as expected last month, ‍hitting the European Central Bank's 2% target before likely moving lower in the ⁠coming months as falling energy costs ⁠offset lingering domestic price pressures, Eurostat data showed on Wednesday.Inflation in the ‍currency bloc slowed to 2.0% in December from 2.1% a month earlier, in line with expectation for 2.0% in a Reuters poll of economists, as energy prices continued to pull down overall price growth, offsetting a pick up in food inflation.A more crucial figure on underlying prices, which exclude volatile food and ‌energy costs, meanwhile eased to 2.3% from 2.4% on a modest slowdown in services and industrial goods inflation.Price growth has hovered on either side ‍of the ECB's 2% target ⁠for most of ‌2025 and the bank sees it near this level for years to come, even if most of this year and next could be spent below target.While some policymakers have expressed concern that low readings could perpetuate anaemic inflation by deflating wage demands, most appear to have taken a relaxed view, arguing that the dip is temporary and mostly caused by energy volatility.Indeed, the ECB last month signalled it was in no hurry to adjust policy any further, cementing market ​expectations that it would keep ‌its 2% deposit rate steady through all of 2026.Still, figures going deeply under 2% ⁠could reignite the debate over ‍easing, but only if they raise the prospect of persistent undershooting, since monetary policy works with long lags and would do little in the near term.In any debate, the ECB will need to reconcile a host of forces that will tug inflation in opposing ​directions.Falling energy costs, a strong euro, surging Chinese imports and moderating wage demands could all pull prices lower.But increased defence spending, Germany's fiscal splurge, a tight labour market, healthy domestic demand, and geopolitical stress could push prices up.These forces make projections especially uncertain and will likely prevent the ECB from giving any guidance beyond the short term, suggesting that rate cuts will not be taken ⁠off the table, even if more easing cannot be ruled out.The ECB will next meet on February 5. 

Eurozone factory activity expanded for the first time since mid-2022 as domestic demand offset the impact from US tariffs while the Asian manufacturing sector saw shrinkage, private surveys showed Monday.There were mixed signals over the Chinese economy, however, as one such survey unexpectedly indicated modest expansion, contradicting an official readout the day before which showed activity continuing to shrink. Export powerhouses Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all saw manufacturing activity shrink in August, underscoring the challenge Asia faces in weathering the hit from sharply higher trade barriers erected by US President Donald Trump. In Europe, Greece and Spain led factory growth while manufacturing in Germany, the bloc's largest economy, shrank albeit at a slower pace.The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to an over-three-year high of 50.7 in August from 49.8 in July, surpassing the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction."The recovery is real but remains fragile. Inventory levels continue to decline, and the slightly accelerated drop in order backlogs shows that companies are still suffering from uncertainty," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. "Domestic orders have risen and are offsetting the weakening demand from abroad. In fact, the best remedy against US tariffs may be to strengthen domestic demand."Meanwhile, manufacturing in Germany rose to a 38-month high of 49.8, a whisker away from the 50 mark, offering hope for the economy that shrank 0.3% last quarter on slowing demand from its top trading partner the US.The EU and the US struck a framework trade deal in late July but only the baseline tariff of 15% has so far been implemented. In Britain, outside the European Union, factory activity suffered a fresh setback in August after signs of a recovery due to worries about trade tensions and tax increases at home.The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49.7 in August, improving from 48.9 in July but staying below the 50 threshold for two straight months.South Korea's factory activity also shrank with the S&P Global PMI standing at 48.3 in August, up from 48.0 in July but contracting for the seventh straight month.Both countries struck a trade deal with the US that eased, but not removed, the pressure on their export-reliant economies."It's a double-whammy for Asian economies, as they face higher US tariffs and competition from cheap Chinese exports," said Toru Nishihama, chief emerging market economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "We'll likely see the hit from US tariffs intensify going forward, with countries reliant on U.S.-bound shipments like Thailand and South Korea particularly vulnerable," he said.However, the RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, unexpectedly rose to 50.5 in August from 49.5 in July, exceeding the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. The reading confounds an official survey on Sunday that showed activity shrank for a fifth straight month on weak domestic demand and uncertainty over the outcome of Beijing's trade deal with the USHalf-way through the month Trump extended his tariff truce with China for another 90 days, withholding imposition of three-digit duties until November 10.Meanwhile, India, which grew at a much better-than-expected 7.8% in the last quarter, continued to be a significant outlier in the region. Manufacturing activity in Asia's third-largest economy expanded at its fastest pace in more than 17 years in August.But the Trump administration's steep 50% tariff on US imports of Indian goods like garments, gems and jewellery threatens to dampen growth in the coming quarters.

European stocks edged lower on Friday as investors awaited key eurozone indicators and a US inflation report for signals on the timing of potential US interest rate cuts.The pan-european stock index slipped 0.2% to 552.41 points, putting it on track for its first weekly loss in a month.Markets broadly expect the US Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in September, with traders closely monitoring upcoming economic data for confirmation of that outlook.