The Al-Attiyah Foundation, in its latest sustainability research paper, has outlined how geoeconomic fragmentation is no longer a future risk but a defining feature of the renewable energy transition. Titled ‘Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Risks to Renewable Energy Supply Chains’, the paper examines how trade tensions, export controls, supply-chain concentration, and regulatory divergence are reshaping the economics of renewables across minerals, manufacturing, finance and infrastructure. The Al-Attiyah Foundation noted that despite clean energy investment surging to record levels, the foundations of the global energy transition are coming under increasing strain. Supply chains, capital flows and critical technologies are no longer governed by efficiency alone, but by geopolitical rivalry and strategic competition, it also pointed out. The report highlights the growing concentration of critical mineral supply chains. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the top three refining countries now account for 86% of global refining capacity for energy-related minerals, while China dominates the refining of 19 out of 20 key transition minerals and controls more than 90% of global rare-earth separation capacity. The paper notes that an IEA stress test found that removing a single major supplier would leave insufficient capacity to meet projected 2035 demand for battery metals and rare earth elements. These vulnerabilities are increasingly feeding into project costs. Offshore wind costs have risen by 30–40% since 2022, while higher freight costs, tighter credit conditions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have added new pressure across renewable supply chains. The report finds that borrowing costs for utility-scale solar projects in emerging markets remain more than twice those in advanced economies, slowing deployment precisely where future energy demand is expected to grow fastest. At the same time, global investment in clean energy continues to accelerate. The IEA estimates that global energy investment surpassed a record $3.3tn in 2025, with $2.2tn directed toward renewables, grids, storage and other clean technologies, which is double the level of fossil-fuel investment. Solar alone is expected to attract approximately $450bn in 2026. The paper also notes that renewable energy overtook coal as the world’s leading source of electricity generation in 2025, marking a historic milestone in the global transition. However, despite this momentum, the IEA expects renewable capacity to double rather than triple by 2030 due to persistent bottlenecks in grids, permitting and finance. For the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the findings are particularly significant. The region remains central to global energy markets while simultaneously expanding large-scale solar, wind and green hydrogen projects. Yet, execution capacity (not procurement or target-setting) has become the primary constraint on delivery, the paper noted. Recent Gulf disruptions have further exposed the vulnerability of interconnected energy and shipping systems, increasing costs across commodities used in renewable manufacturing, it stated. A rapidly expanding compliance also burdens energy firms. Measures such as the EU Critical Raw Materials Act, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, sustainability disclosure standards and AI governance rules are creating overlapping obligations that are raising costs and increasing operational complexity across global supply chains. Despite these pressures, the report concludes that the long-term strategic case for renewables continues to strengthen. Clean energy is increasingly viewed not only as a climate imperative, but as a cornerstone of energy security and economic resilience in an increasingly fragmented global system.To read ‘Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Risks to Renewable Energy Supply Chains’ and explore the Al-Attiyah Foundation’s Sustainability Research Series, visit abhafoundation.org.
