The immediate aviation impact of the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran was felt across the Middle East within hours. Airlines halted operations as airspace closures spread across the region, aircraft were diverted, and the world’s most important aviation hubs were brought to a standstill.Yet the longer-term consequences for aviation extend well beyond the temporary shutdown of flights. As operations gradually stabilise, the global airline industry is now confronting a second and potentially more consequential shock: The sudden surge in oil prices and the resulting spike in jet fuel costs.This is where a regional conflict quickly becomes a global aviation story.Commercial aviation depends on energy markets that are inherently international. Aircraft flying between Europe and Asia, North America and the Pacific, or Australia and the Middle East all rely on the same global fuel supply chain.When a geopolitical event disrupts that system, the financial impact spreads rapidly through airline balance sheets and ultimately through ticket prices paid by passengers around the world.The latest escalation in the Middle East has delivered exactly that scenario.Jet fuel had been trading between $85 and $90 per barrel before the outbreak of hostilities. Within days, prices surged sharply, reaching levels between $150 and $200.For airlines, a cost movement of this scale represents a severe financial shock.Fuel is the second largest expense for airlines after labour and typically accounts for between one fifth and one quarter of total operating costs. When that cost base rises dramatically, airlines have limited options. They must either raise fares, reduce capacity or redeploy aircraft to routes where higher ticket prices can support the increased operating costs.The industry has already begun responding.Air New Zealand has raised fares across several parts of its network and suspended its financial outlook for 2026 as uncertainty over fuel costs intensifies. Domestic ticket prices have risen modestly while long haul fares have increased more sharply as the airline attempts to absorb higher fuel expenses.Australia’s Qantas has also started increasing international fares and is examining how it might redeploy capacity across its network as airlines adjust to operational disruptions and higher fuel costs simultaneously.Elsewhere, airlines are taking similar steps. Scandinavian carrier SAS has introduced temporary fare adjustments in response to the sudden increase in fuel prices. Hong Kong Airlines has raised fuel surcharges by more than 35% on some routes.Network dynamics are shifting at the same time. Cathay Pacific has added additional flights to London and Zurich as airlines and passengers adjust to evolving airspace conditions and changes in travel demand.Not every airline is reacting immediately. British Airways owner IAG has said it remains well-protected by its fuel hedging programme and has no immediate plans to adjust ticket prices.That contrast highlights one of aviation’s most debated financial strategies.Many European and Asian airlines hedge a portion of their fuel consumption, locking in prices months or years in advance in order to shield themselves from market volatility. Ryanair, Lufthansa and several other European carriers have secured large shares of their near term fuel needs at fixed prices.The United States airline industry has largely abandoned this approach. American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines ended fuel hedging more than a decade ago, arguing that the long term cost of maintaining hedging programmes outweighed the protection they offered during occasional price spikes. Southwest Airlines, which once built its reputation on an aggressive hedging strategy, ended its programme only recently.That decision has left the largest US airlines more exposed to the current surge in fuel prices. Analysts estimate the four largest American carriers could collectively face more than $11bn in additional fuel expenses this year if prices remain elevated. Each week that fuel prices remain at current levels adds hundreds of millions of dollars to airline operating costs.These pressures eventually filter through to passengers.Airlines rarely describe fare increases as fuel driven price rises, yet the connection is straightforward. When fuel becomes more expensive, the break-even cost of operating each flight rises. Airlines must then either raise ticket prices, reduce capacity or redirect aircraft toward routes where fares are higher.Fuel is not the only operational pressure emerging from the conflict.Airspace across parts of the Middle East has become more complex and unpredictable, forcing airlines to adjust flight paths and operational planning. Longer flight routings increase fuel consumption and reduce aircraft utilisation, placing further pressure on airline economics.European airlines were already dealing with similar complications after the closure of Russian airspace following the invasion of Ukraine. Flights between Europe and Asia have been forced onto longer southern routes for several years. The instability affecting parts of Middle Eastern airspace now adds further constraints to global route networks.The implications extend far beyond the region itself.Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad together carry a substantial share of passenger traffic between Europe and Asia and transport more than half of travellers flying between Europe and Australia or New Zealand. Disruption to airspace in and around the Gulf affects the connectivity of routes stretching across the entire long haul aviation system.Even airports outside the immediate conflict zone are feeling the ripple effects. Aircraft arriving in Dubai were briefly placed in holding patterns earlier this week due to security concerns linked to potential missile activity before landing safely. Incidents like this demonstrate how quickly geopolitical instability can influence day to day airline operations.The central question for the industry now is how long the fuel shock will last.Oil markets have already shown signs of volatility, rising sharply before easing somewhat as signals emerged that the conflict may not escalate further. Airline share prices followed a similar pattern, falling sharply before stabilising as energy markets cooled.Even so, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the wider regional security environment remains significant. For airlines planning schedules, pricing and fleet deployment months ahead, that uncertainty complicates decision making.The aviation industry has experienced similar shocks before. Oil price surges have repeatedly tested airline resilience over the past half century. Each time the industry has adapted through a combination of operational discipline, pricing adjustments and more efficient aircraft technology.Modern aircraft are far more fuel efficient than their predecessors. The Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 have transformed the economics of long haul travel, consuming far less fuel per passenger than the aircraft they replaced.Even so, no technological advance can completely shield airlines from the volatility now emerging in global fuel markets.Passengers will most likely notice the impact through ticket prices. Fare increases often begin gradually through modest adjustments or fuel surcharges. If elevated fuel costs persist, those increases can become more visible across international and long haul routes.The author is an aviation analyst. X handle: @AlexInAir.