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The price of gold in the Qatari market increased by 2.78 % this week to stand at $3,865.65000 per ounce on Thursday. Qatar National Bank (QNB) data showed that the price of gold increased from $3,760.83250 recorded last Sunday. As for other precious metals, silver rose by 2.53% on a weekly basis to reach $47.22800 per ounce compared to $46.05870 at the start of the week. Platinum fell by 0.44% to $1,567.84000 per ounce compared to 1,574.90530 at the beginning of the week.

The largest stock market crashes have occurred in September or October. The Panic of 1907 began in mid-October, the Wall Street crash of 1929 saw its biggest falls on 24 and 29 October, the ‘Black Monday’ crash of 1987 was on 19 October, while the collapse of Lehman Brothers that triggered the banking crisis occurred in September 2008.President Trump has made no secret of his desire for lower interest rates. Will he push them towards zero, and might this be one of the triggers for market corrections?Are we heading for a similar crash? By any conventional indicators, stock market valuations are overheated. The problem is that this has been the case for some months, and those ignoring the warning signs have profited.The investment boom in AI is believed by many to herald such a huge boost to business productivity that traditional indicators of company valuation are no longer valid – but of course the phrase ‘This time is different’ is itself a warning sign. It is the title of a book on investment bubbles and crashes, written by economists Carmen M Reinhart and Kenneth S Rogoff and published in 2009, shortly after the start of the financial crisis.There are two strong indicators that this time is really no different to earlier bubbles. The first is that at least some of the investment in AI may be misplaced. There is little doubt that the rapid development of highly powerful AI tools holds the potential for significant productivity gains. It is less certain, however, that the big bet on massively increasing the capacity of data centres in the quest for an ultra-high level of synthetic intelligence is going to pay off in a direct way.A study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in August reported that 95% of AI pilot schemes did not result in better business performance. In mid-September JP Morgan Asset Management warned that valuations in AI were ‘stretched’, such that only a small disappointment in earnings could prompt a sell-off. The scale of investment in data centres to power AI is in the order of $3tn, around half of which comes from the capital of big tech companies, but a high proportion is funded by private credit, which is comparatively opaque, and is linked to the banking system.It is a near-certainty that many venture capital-backed AI start-ups will fail, but the extent of this and the impact on the wider economy is difficult to gauge.Evidence is emerging of productivity gains from AI – but these emerge from smarter and more focused use of bespoke AI tools, allied to the most intelligent human direction. Small language models (SLMs) may be more effective than LLMs in many business applications, which is great news for those firms that get it right – but less so for the investors who have bet big on scaling up.It is all but inevitable that a major new technology will feature a bubble. It has occurred with railways in the 19th century, and dotcom firms and supportive infrastructure in the late 1990s. Even when the bubble bursts, it is only a serious problem for the wider economy if it affects the banking industry such that loans dry up for other parts of the economy, heralding a recession.The second major risk factor is the pro-cyclical behaviour of the President of the US in slashing interest rates and encouraging speculation. Just before the financial crash of 2007-08, Chuck Prince, then the CEO of Citibank, famously said that as long as the music is playing, you need to dance. President Donald Trump is now the one trying to keep the music playing.President Trump encourages stock market investment, and authorised the US government to purchase a 10% stake in the chip manufacturer Intel – an extraordinary decision.He has also pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, expressing a desire both for ultra-low rates and a weaker dollar. The official US interest rate was duly cut in mid-September, by 25 basis points, to 4-4.25%.It is unusual for interest rates to be reduced to very low levels in non-recessionary conditions. Inflation is not very high, but it is above the nominal target of 2% and in August it edged upwards to 2.9% from 2.7%. There are, however, indicators of credit delinquency and other signs of financial stress among some consumers.There is likely to be at least one more cut of the same amount before the end of 2025, and probably two. Nominally, the Federal Reserve is independent of the White House, but President Trump has made his desire for lower rates very public. The courts have so far paused his efforts to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Board. His own nominee for the board, Stephen Miran, has been approved.There is another risk factor: Less reliable economic statistics. In early August, President Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, complaining that the employment data, weaker than expected, were incorrect. In addition, budget cuts at the Bureau have meant a reduction in the data points that feed into the official statistics.The US is exhibiting some of the features more normally associated with emerging economies: A President over-reaching his authority, compromised independence of key institutions, concern over the accuracy of economic data. This does not mean we are about to witness economic meltdown and hyper-inflation in the US, given the depth and strength of its internal economy, but there are signs of weaker long-term stability.A near-certainty is the continued increase in US public sector debt, and erosion of the value of paper money. The gold price has risen from $2,600 per ounce less than a year ago to around $3,800 per ounce by late September. Gold now forms a greater proportion of central bank reserves than US Treasuries for the first time since 1996.As regards the investment bubble, is this time different? In many respects, no. Will there be a market crash in October? It is never possible to be certain, but there are many red warning signs.The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions.

The price of gold in the Qatari market increased by 1.36 percent this week to stand at USD 3736.71000 per ounce on Thursday. Qatar National Bank (QNB) data showed that the price of gold increased from USD 3686.22510 recorded last Sunday. As for other precious metals, silver rose by 2.03 percent on a weekly basis to reach USD 44.00570 per ounce compared to USD 43.13000 at the start of the week. Platinum increased by 5.17 percent to USD 1484.97000 per ounce compared to USD 1411.88850 at the beginning of the week.

Market EyeForeign institutions were seen squaring off position in the Qatar Stock Exchange, which closed in the negative for the fourth straight session, resulting in 96 points plunge in index and about QR5bn in capitalisation.The banks, consumer goods and telecom counters witnessed higher than average selling pressure as the 20-stock Qatar Index shed 0.86% to 11,078.5 points, although it touched an intraday high of 11,199 points.More than 73% of the traded constituents were in the red in the main market, whose year-to-date gains truncated further to 4.8%.The Gulf institutions were seen net profit takers in the main bourse, whose capitalisation eroded QR4.73bn or 0.71% to QR664.32bn; mainly on midcap segments.The Gulf retail investors turned bearish in the main market, which saw as many as 2,936 exchange traded funds (sponsored by AlRayan Bank and Doha Bank) valued at QR0.02mn trade across six deals.The Arab institutions’ weakened net buying had its marginal influence on the main bourse, whose trade turnover and volumes were on the increase.The Islamic index was seen declining slower than the other indices of the main market, which saw no trading of treasury bills.However, the domestic funds turned net buyers in the main bourse, which saw no trading of sovereign bonds.The Total Return Index shed 0.86%, the All Share Index by 0.85% and the All Islamic Index 0.68% in the main market.The banks and financial services sector index tanked 1.24%, consumer goods and services (0.98%), telecom (0.94%), transport (0.26%), industrials (0.15%) and insurance (0.06%); while real estate was unchanged.As many as 10 stocks gained, while 38 declined and four were unchanged.Major losers in the main market included Medicare Group, Qatar Islamic Bank, QIIB, Qatar Oman Investment, Meeza, QNB, Dukhan Bank, Barwa, Ooredoo and Nakilat.In the juniour bourse, Techno Q saw its shares depreciate in value.Nevertheless, Estithmar Holding, Mazaya Qatar, Ezdan, Mekdam Holding, Gulf Warehousing and Vodafone Qatar were among the movers in the main market.The foreign institutions’ net profit booking increased substantially to QR44.51mn compared to QR5.55mn the previous day.The Gulf institutions turned net sellers to the tune of QR13.29mn against net buyers of QR12.47mn on September 23.The Gulf individual investors were net sellers to the extent of QR0.71mn compared with net buyers of QR1.31mn on Tuesday.The Arab institutions’ net buying weakened marginally to QR0.02mn against QR0.05mn the previous day.However, the domestic funds turned net buyers to the tune of QR43.53mn compared with net sellers of QR2.24mn on September 23.The local retail investors were net buyers to the extent of QR13.09mn against net sellers of QR5.02mn on Tuesday.The foreign individual investors’ net buying strengthened perceptibly to QR5.21mn compared to QR4.7mn the previous day.The Arab retail investors’ net profit booking shrank noticeably to QR3.33mn against QR5.72mn on September 23.The main market saw a 22% jump in trade volumes to 217.05mn shares, 22% in value to QR572.05mn and 3% in deals to 24,303.In the venture market, a total of 0.23mn equities valued at QR0.6mn changed hands across 18 transactions.

The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) general index opened the week in negative territory on Sunday, edging down 13.52 points, or 0.12%, to 11,294 at the start of trading.Market data showed gains in three sectors, led by Telecoms (+0.46%), Real Estate (+0.34%), and Transportation (+0.23%). However, the index was weighed down by declines in Consumer Goods and Services (-0.32%), Insurance (-0.24%), Banks and Financial Services (-0.12%), and Industrials (-0.02%).As of 10:00 am, trading volume stood at 36.371 million shares, with a turnover of QR 93.945 million across 3,429 transactions.

Major indices on the US stock market ended today's trading session in the green. The S&P 500 index rose by 32.05 points, or 0.47%, closing at 6,662.84 points. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite gained 156.30 points, or 0.69%, finishing at 22,625.48 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw a notable increase, adding 165.45 points, or 0.36%, to close at 46,315.77 points.

Qatar has strengthened its role in Middle East space market with $220mn civil space investments and expected to grow 5% annually through 2033, according to Boston Consulting Group (BCG)."Qatar, alongside the UAE and Saudi Arabia, represents the core of the region’s civil space investments, each contributing actively to the Gulf Cooperation Council's or GCC’s emergence as a hub for space innovation and ambition," BCG said in its latest report.Qatar, with a $220mn investment in civil space activities for 2024, contributes around 5% of the market today and holds just under 5% downstream services market share, strengthening the GCC’s collective leadership and offering a strong foundation for future growth, it said.Downstream refers to ongoing operations and services, while upstream includes spacecraft design and manufacturing, launch facilities, and ground operations. Downstream markets are increasingly merging with the digital industry, adopting technologies like AI (artificial intelligence) and cloud computing for efficient mass data collection and processing.The UAE has demonstrated a strategic commitment to space, with $443mn invested in civil space in 2024, corresponding to approximately 40–45% of government spending across the MEA (Middle East and Africa) region, whose space market is valued at $18bn.The UAE is positioned to capture more than 50% of the region’s downstream services market share, including satellite communications and earth observation, according to BCG.Saudi Arabia, with a comparable $220mn investment in 2024, accounts for an estimated 20–25% share of government space spending in the region and is expected to hold more than 20% of the regional downstream services market"All three markets are projected to grow at or above the global space economy compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% through 2033, underscoring the region’s long-term commitment and momentum.Qatar's Es'hailSat plays a crucial role in regional satellite communications, while the UAE's Mars Hope Probe showcases successful international collaboration frameworks."What we're witnessing across the GCC is a comprehensive understanding that space industry success requires simultaneous excellence across multiple dimensions, financial commitment, partnership strategy, risk management, and policy integration, while maintaining patience for long-term returns in a rapidly evolving global landscape," Thibault Werle, Managing Director and Partner at BCG, said.Saudi Arabia's partnerships with NASA and Axiom, along with private sector participation from entities like Neo Space Group, demonstrate the effectiveness of hybrid investment models.

Kuwait Bourse closed trading on Sunday as the All Share Index gained 68.20 points to reach 8,784.83 points, an increase of 0.78 percent. As many as 514.3 million shares valued at KWD 104.6 million (roughly USD 319 million) were traded via 24,040 transactions.The Main Market Index went up by 66.27 points to reach 8,002.73 points, up by 0.84 percent, through 316.9 million shares done via 15,462 transactions valued at KWD 46.19 million (roughly USD 140.8 million).The Premier Market Index gained 72.05 points to reach 9,413.99 points, up by 0.77 percent, through 197.3 million shares done via 8,578 transactions valued at KWD 58.4 million (roughly USD 178.12 million).Meanwhile, the bourse Main 50 Index went up by 80.86 points to reach 8,251.41 points, up by 0.99 percent, through stock volume of 250 million shares done in 10,531 deals at a value of KWD 38.5 million (roughly USD 117.4 million).

As the oil market moves closer to a long-anticipated glut, traders are closely watching buying from China to see if it will absorb an excess that the world’s crude producing nations are set to pump.Earlier this year, China piled into the crude market to snap up millions of barrels, including some that went into its strategic storage. The buildup has since slowed down as the nation’s domestic demand picked up, but with expectations that Beijing will continue to amass barrels, its next steps are seen as critical.With China’s vast network of oil tank farms still a little over 50% full, according to OilX data, traders say another spree would limit the damage from a long-anticipated glut in other parts of the globe. That’s significant because if China’s buying is elevated, it will prevent a buildup of supply in a narrow set of hubs in Midwestern America and Northwest Europe, limiting how far prices can fall.“The key question is where stockbuilds will turn up,” HSBC Holdings Plc analysts including Kim Fustier wrote this week. “If China continues to absorb excess oil volumes via its strategic reserves, as it did in in the second quarter, stockbuilds in the OECD could be muted.”The global market’s capacity to absorb barrels will be among talking points when OPEC+ nations meet to discuss supply on Sunday. Saudi Arabia wants the group to accelerate the return of another tranche of halted output adding to concerns about a surplus that would depress prices but all options are on the table.About 10% of the nation’s crude stockpiling has been directed to its strategic petroleum reserves, according to Kayrros analyst Antoine Halff. There have also been additions to the country’s refining capacity, such as CNOOC Ltd’s Daxie plant, and the addition of new tank space.It’s also possible that Beijing wants to hold more barrels in storage given the heightened levels of geopolitical risks over the last few years, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies wrote in a note.While China’s flagship crude futures contract was flashing a softer market over recent weeks, the world’s two main benchmark’s continued to suggest relatively tight supplies.That’s because inventory builds so far this year have avoided western hubs. In Cushing, Oklahoma, the tank farm of about 15 storage terminals that underpins the West Texas Intermediate futures contract, inventories have been repeatedly near multi-year seasonal lows this year.The International Energy Agency says that in the second quarter global oil stockpiles increased by the most since the third three months of 2020, when the global economy was still being ravaged by the Covid-19 pandemic. Over that period, stockpiles in the developed world climbed by 60,000 barrels a day, while expanding by more than 1mn barrels a day everywhere else.It’s still possible that prices will need to fall from current levels for China buy in a big way, though, according to Frederic Lasserre, head of research at Gunvor Group.“The last solver that everybody is talking about is China,” he said. “Not for runs, but because we’ve seen a recent trend of them being willing to build up crude barrels. But if you expect China to go back to stockpiling 1mn barrels a day, you need a big price drop to incentivise it.”Both inside and outside of China there’s plenty of space to store unwanted oil.Bank of America Corp wrote last month that there’s about a billion barrels of empty tank capacity available across the globe to fill with inventories, which could mean that markets avoid falling into a heavily bearish structure.There are signs that the surge in production is starting to come, though. Brazil’s output approached 4mn barrels a day for the first time over the summer, and a new field is due to start in the country before the end of the year. Guyana has moved from producing nothing to almost 1mn barrels a day and output in Canada’s oil heartland of Alberta hit a record in July.At the same time, despite concerns about a decline in US output, the Energy Information Administration has consistently revised oil supply estimates higher over the last few months.What traders are waiting for now, is for those increases to appear at key storage hubs.“When we look at OECD inventories we’re still at a relatively low level,” Nadia Martin Wiggen, a director at Svelland Capital, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “Yes, there is this supply glut coming according to expectations, but we need to see that materialising.”

The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) retreated by 127.63 points or 1.14% to close at 11,099.21. Market capitalisation declined 1.2% to QR662.7bn from QR670.8bn at the end of the previous trading week.Of the 53 traded companies, 44 ended the week higher, while 32 ended lower and nine ended higher. Mannai (MCCS) was the best performing stock for the week, rising 11.6%. Meanwhile, Estithmar Holding (IGRD) was the worst performing stock for the week, declining by 10.7%.Industries Qatar (IQCD), Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK) and Estithmar Holding (IGRD) were the main contributors to the weekly index losses. They shaved 31.86, 26.03 and 14.16 points off the index, respectively.Traded value during the week decreased 26.1% to QR1,647.4mn from QR2,228.1mn in the prior trading week. Baladna (BLDN) was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR143.1mn.Traded volume decreased 24.2% to 574.9mn shares compared with 758.0mn shares in the prior trading week. The number of transactions inched up 0.6% to 96,797 vs 96,238 in the prior week. BLDN was the top volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of 91.9mn shares.Foreign institutions turned bearish, ending the week with net selling of QR56.5mn vs net buying of QR2.9mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained bullish, with net buying of QR14.5mn vs net buying of QR12.4mn in the week before. Foreign retail investors ended the week with net buying of QR34.4mn vs net buying of QR2.9mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors recorded net buying of QR7.6mn vs net selling of QR18.2mn.Global foreign institutions are net buyers of Qatari equities by $184.5mn YTD, while GCC institutions are net long by $76.2mn.The QSE index closed down for the third week by 1.16% from the week before at 11,099.2 points. The recent correction is a natural phenomenon in the financial markets: markets correct after sharp rises. From a technical point of view, the index remains in a healthy uptrend as long as it stays above the 10,650 level. Major moving averages are stacked positively and pointing upwards, which support our bullish outlook over the coming months. We also stay dynamic with the signals offered to us by the market.

Turkiye’s central bank Governor Fatih Karahan struck an optimistic note on the inflation outlook following worse-than-expected data and market turmoil, suggesting investors may have been too hasty in reducing their forecasts for interest-rate cuts.An unexpected court order against the main opposition party on Tuesday which triggered a broad selloff in Turkish assets was followed by the release of higher-than-expected August inflation data the next morning. The combination had Wall Street banks swiftly redrawing their predictions for a new rate-cutting cycle, anticipating a less severe reduction when policymakers meet on September 11.But in an interview with Bloomberg News on Thursday, Karahan said the breakdown of August’s inflation numbers and second-quarter growth showed that demand-driven price pressures are easing.“Though headline GDP growth was higher than forecasts, the components of the GDP data showed that demand conditions continue to support disinflation,” he said in Istanbul. While overall quarterly growth was an above-forecast 1.6%, Karahan highlighted that private consumption has come in negative for two consecutive quarters.Similarly, while August inflation which slowed to 33% from 33.5% the prior month was above expectations, Karahan emphasised the main indicators of the underlying trend offered “a healthier assessment.” Those show that price rises are continuing to ease, he said, while adding that the central bank is keeping a close eye on the impact of increases in rent and education on inflation expectations.The BIST-100 Index and banking stocks were slightly up on Friday morning at 10.22am. The lira was trading 0.2% lower against the US dollar at 41.25.The central bank reduced rates by more than anticipated in July, to 43% from 46%, the first cut in four months, and signalled at the time that more was to come.But a court order to remove the Istanbul administration of Turkiye’s main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, unnerved investors. That ruling which precedes a number of other legal decisions related to the opposition coincided with the disappointing economic reports, causing Wall Street banks to predict a slower pace of interest-rate cuts.Asked whether the central bank’s views on inflation are influenced by the overall uncertainty, Karahan said: “We haven’t allowed for the deterioration of inflation expectations nor for demand to disrupt disinflation and we won’t allow it.” “We want to preserve the gains we’ve made in reserves, the current-account balance and other important areas like dollarisation,” he added.The central bank last month fine-tuned its guidance for inflation, maintaining a year-end target of 24% while at the same time issuing a projection of where it anticipates the figure to ultimately end up.That’s likely to be in the range of 25% to 29%, the bank said.The official targets will be used to “determine the tightness of monetary policy in the current and near-term period,” Karahan said.“Because monetary mechanism takes some time, in the short run estimates could diverge from the interim targets,” he said. “There might be times when monetary policy can’t immediately react. For example, these could include factors that fall outside the relative sphere of influence of monetary policy, developments that have emerged very recently relative to the control horizon, and situations where the impact on the inflation outlook is uncertain.”

Saudi Arabia’s battered stock market is looking increasingly attractive to foreign investors because of rock-bottom valuations and bets that the oil price won’t drop much further.Investors from beyond the Arabian Gulf accounted for 41% of total Saudi equities buying in the week ended August 28, one of the highest ratios on record, according to Saudi stock exchange data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.The flows signal that a rush of reforms making it easier for foreigners to buy Saudi stocks is working. For the time being, however, risks still have the upper hand with the Tadawul All Share Index down 11% year to date and domestic investors on the retreat, along with crude prices.Nishit Lakhotia, head of research at SICO Bank, said stock investors are currently pricing in a “worse-case scenario” for the Saudi market, which he expects to bottom out shortly, unless oil drops below $60 a barrel — which would amount to a roughly 10% drop from current levels.“We believe the momentum is still there in the economy, which does not warrant such depressed valuations,” he said. “While it’s hard to predict when exactly the market can turn, there will likely be a point — sooner than later — when smart investors will start buying.”The slump has made Saudi stocks look relatively attractive, with the benchmark index near the lowest price-to-earnings multiple in more than five years. Junaid Ansari, director of investment strategy and research at Kamco Investment Co, expects a sharp turnaround in sentiment from the fourth quarter, when investors start making allocations for 2026.“The Saudi market is an oversold market,” said Ansari. While foreigners have largely been net buyers, “the sellers are mainly institutions in Saudi Arabia which we believe are selling to focus on other investment opportunities in the Kingdom,” he said.Nevertheless, the weak oil market is weighing down Saudi assets. Brent crude is trading around $66 per barrel, well below the nation’s fiscal breakeven price of $94, according to Bloomberg Economics. If domestic investments by the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund are included, the figure rises to $111.While foreigners accounted for about 35% of all Saudi stock purchases in August, continuing a strong trend, daily turnover on the market has dropped to the lowest level since 2023. This means that international investors are grabbing a bigger slice of a smaller pie.Still, the gloom over the kingdom’s stocks may be over-hyped, especially as a negative perception of earnings is in large part based on giants, such as Saudi Arabian Oil Company and Saudi Basic Industries Corp.Excluding Aramco and Sabic, Saudi stocks are showing roughly 7% profit growth, Kamco’s Ansari said. Even as the Tadawul index has declined, owners of Saudi National Bank and Saudi Telecom Co shares have seen 11% and 13% returns, respectively, so far this year.“Although earnings growth for 2025 and 2026 is among the lowest across emerging markets, valuations have become more attractive,” said Nenad Dinic, an emerging-markets equity strategist at Bank Julius Baer & Co Ltd.