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The World Food Programme warned Tuesday that the aid Israel is allowing to enter Gaza remains a "drop in the ocean", days after famine was formally declared in the war-torn Palestinian territory.The United Nations declared a famine in Gaza on Friday, blaming the "systematic obstruction" of aid by Israel during its nearly two-year war with the Hamas.Carl Skau, WFP's chief operating officer, said that over the past two weeks, there has been a "slight uptick" in aid entering, averaging around 100 trucks per day."That's still a drop in the ocean when we're talking about assisting some 2.1 million people," Skau told AFP during a visit to New Delhi."We need a completely different level of assistance to be able to turn this trajectory of famine around."The Rome-based Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Initiative (IPC) said famine was affecting 500,000 people in Gaza.It defines famine as when 20 percent of households face extreme food shortages, more than 30 percent of children under five are acutely malnourished, and there is an excess mortality threshold of at least two in 10,000 people a day.Skau painted a grim picture of Gaza."The levels of desperation are so high that people keep grabbing the food off our trucks," the former Swedish diplomat said."And when we're not able to do proper orderly distributions, we're not sure that we're reaching the most vulnerable -- the women and the children furthest out in the camps," he said."And they're the ones we really need to reach now, if we want to avoid a full-scale catastrophe."But Skau also warned that Gaza was only one of many global crises, with multiple famine zones emerging simultaneously as donor funding collapses.Some 320 million people globally are now acutely food insecure - nearly triple the figure from five years ago. At the same time, WFP funding has dropped by 40 percent compared with last year."Right now, we're seeing a number of crises that, at any other time in history, would have gotten the headlines and been the top issue discussed," he said.That includes Sudan, where 25 million people are "acutely food insecure", including 10 million in what Skau called "the starvation phase"."It's the largest hunger and humanitarian crisis that we probably have seen in decades -- since the end of the 1980s with the Ethiopia famine," he said."We have 10 spots in Sudan where famine has been confirmed. It's a disaster of unimaginable magnitude."He detailed how a UN aid convoy in June tried to break the siege by paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of Sudan's city of El-Fasher in Darfur, only for the truck convoy to be hit by a deadly drone attack.Neighbouring South Sudan is also struggling, he said, suggesting "there might well be a third confirmation of a famine"."That will be unprecedented", he said, citing "extremely expensive" operations in the young nation's Upper Nile state, where, with few roads, aid must be delivered by helicopters or airdrops."This is maybe the number one crisis where you have on one hand staggering needs and, frankly, no resources available", he said.At the same time, traditional donors have cut aid.US President Donald Trump slashed foreign aid after taking office, dealing a heavy blow to humanitarian operations worldwide."We are in a funding crunch, and the challenge here is that the needs keep going up", Skau said.While conflict is the "main driver" of rising hunger levels, other causes include "extreme weather events due to climate change" and the economic shock of trade wars."Our worry is that we are now cutting from the hungry to give to the starving," he said.Skau said the organisation was actively seeking new donors."We're engaging countries like India, Indonesia, Brazil, and others, beyond the more traditional donors, to see how they can also assist".

The economic shock from the Iran war is no longer hypothetical. What the United Nations Development Programme modelled as a four-week disruption has already been overtaken by events, with the conflict now stretching into a fifth week and signalling that the projected $120bn to $194bn loss in Arab economic output may prove conservative.  When UNDP released its assessment on 31 March, it warned that even a short, contained escalation would shrink regional GDP by 3.7 to 6.0%, erase up to 3.64mn jobs, raise unemployment by as much as four percentage points, and push between 3.05mn and 3.96mn people into poverty. That scenario assumed temporary trade disruption, limited infrastructure damage and manageable energy shocks. None of those conditions now hold. The conflict has since expanded geographically and operationally, with sustained exchanges involving Iran and spillovers across the Levant and Gulf. Strategic assets, including energy and petrochemical infrastructure, have come under repeated pressure, while rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil flows, have heightened market volatility. These developments align closely with UNDP's most severe scenario, which anticipated extreme trade disruption and hydrocarbon supply shocks.  That assessment is borne out by the data. Iran's strike on Qatar's Ras Laffan natural gas terminal wiped out 17% of the country's LNG export capacity, with repairs expected to take up to five years, according to state-owned QatarEnergy. The blow extends well beyond Qatar's balance sheet. Gita Gopinath, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, has written that global economic growth, expected before the war to reach 3.3% this year, could fall by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points if oil prices average $85 a barrel through 2026. Carmen Reinhart, a former World Bank chief economist now at Harvard Kennedy School, has warned that the conflict is "raising the risk of higher inflation and lower growth," reviving uncomfortable parallels with the stagflationary oil shocks of the 1970s.Nowhere are the risks more concentrated than in the Gulf. UNDP had projected that the GCC economies, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, could see GDP contract by 5.2 to 8.5%, translating into losses of $103bn to $168bn. Oxford Economics has since downgraded aggregate GCC real GDP growth for 2026 by 4.6 percentage points from its pre-war forecast to minus 0.2%, reflecting reduced oil production, exports, tourism and domestic demand. Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE face the most severe downgrades, given their inability to reroute hydrocarbon exports, which means production will need to shut down once storage facilities reach capacity.  A Goldman Sachs economist forecast that if the war continues through the end of April it could shrink Gulf states’ GDP substantially. With energy infrastructure increasingly exposed and shipping routes under strain, the UNDP's upper-bound figures are now edging into view, if not beyond. The bloc could also lose up to 3.11mn jobs, with human development setbacks equivalent to one to two years of progress. In the Levant, where fragility was already entrenched, the impact is sharper still. GDP losses of up to 8.7% are now paired with a disproportionate surge in poverty, accounting for more than 75% of the region's projected increase in deprivation. The war's human toll, including displacement, disruption to education and healthcare, and damage to civilian systems, has compounded the economic shock, reinforcing UNDP's warning of a measurable decline in human development indicators. Inside Iran itself, the erosion is equally stark. UNDP estimates the country's human development index could fall by 0.47 to 0.56 percentage points, effectively wiping out one to one-and-a-half years of progress. With low-income households spending nearly 45% of their income on food, inflation and supply disruptions are rapidly translating into real hardship, particularly for informal workers and small businesses. The World Trade Organisation has said that if oil and gas prices remain elevated for the rest of the year, forecasted 2026 global GDP growth could be reduced by 0.3 per cent. Europe, as a heavy energy importer, could see growth fall by at least one percentage point below previous expectations. Beyond the immediate theatre, the fallout is rippling outward with particular severity through agricultural markets. The Gulf accounts for roughly a third of global urea exports and a quarter of ammonia, with up to 40% of world nitrogen fertiliser exports passing through the Strait of Hormuz. With that passage now blocked, urea prices are up 50% since the war began and ammonia prices have risen 20%. The downstream consequences for food security are acute. The countries of the Gulf region, home to more than 60mn people, are almost entirely import-dependent across staple food categories, meaning any sustained disruption to supply chains will rapidly translate into food shocks. Oxford Economics has modelled a scenario in which prolonged disruption tips the world into outright contraction, with world GDP falling in the middle of the year, calendar-year growth for 2026 slowing to 1.4% and global inflation reaching 7.7%, close to the 2022 peak. Unlike 2022, when the global economy continued to expand through the price shock, the severity of this disruption could tip the world into recession, which Oxford's analysts describe as the worst synchronised downturn in 40 years outside the pandemic and the global financial crisis. Taken together, these developments point to a fundamental shift in the nature of the crisis. What began as a geopolitical confrontation is now manifesting as a multi-layered development shock, affecting growth, employment, poverty and long-term human welfare simultaneously. The longer the conflict persists, the more it entrenches structural damage across interconnected systems, from energy markets to food security. UNDP's original warning was stark: even a brief war could reverse years of progress. Five weeks on, the trajectory suggests something deeper. The economic and human setback now under way is likely to exceed initial projections, with consequences that will endure well beyond the battlefield.