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Beyond the TarmacAn improvement in both passenger and cargo volumes in the global air transport industry during July suggests renewed economic momentum, stronger global trade, and growing travel demand clear signs of resilience and confidence in the global air transport sector.Data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) revealed global passenger demand measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), was up 4% in July compared to the same period in 2024.Similarly, total demand in global air cargo, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), rose by 5.5% in July compared to July 2024 levels.Industry analysts see increased passenger and cargo activity in July reflecting restored international mobility, expansion of route networks, and better global connectivity between markets.In the passenger segment, the July load factor was 85.5% (-0.4 ppt compared to July 2024).International demand rose 5.3% in July compared to July, 2024. Capacity was up 5.8% year-on-year, and the load factor was 85.6% (-0.4 ppt compared to July 2024).Domestic demand increased 1.8% in July compared to the same month in 2024. Capacity was up 2.3% year-on-year. The load factor was 85.2% (-0.4 ppt compared to July 2024).In the global air cargo segment, capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), increased by 3.9% compared to July 2024 (+4.5% for international operations).IATA Director General Willie Walsh noted, “Air cargo demand grew 5.5% in July, a strong result. Most major trade lanes reported growth, with one significant exception: Asia–North America, where demand was down 1.0% year-on-year.“A sharp decline in e-commerce, as the US 'de minimis' exemptions on small shipments expired, was likely offset by shippers frontloading goods in advance of rising tariffs for imports to the US. August will likely reveal more clearly the impact of shifting US trade policies.“While much attention is rightly being focused on developments in markets connected to the US, it is important to keep a broad perspective on the global network. A fifth of air cargo travels on the Europe–Asia trade lane, which marked 29 months of consecutive expansion with 13.5% year-on-year growth in July.”According to IATA, several factors in the operating environment should be noted.First, the global goods trade grew by 3.1% year-on-year in June.The July jet fuel price was 9.1% lower year-on-year and has remained below 2024 levels so far this year, easing airlines’ operating costs. However, it was 4.3% higher than in June.Global manufacturing contracted in July with the PMI falling to 49.66, the second dip below the 50-mark growth threshold since January.Also, new export orders also remained negative at 48.2 for the fourth month, reflecting waning confidence amid US trade policy uncertainty.“It has been a good northern summer season for airlines. Momentum has grown over the peak season with July demand reaching 4% growth. That trend appears across all regions and is particularly evident for international travel, which strengthened from 3.9% growth in June to 5.3% in July. Moreover, with flight volumes showing a 2% year-on-year increase for September after five months of decelerating growth, airlines are positioned to take advantage of this market momentum into the coming months,” Walsh noted.Rising cargo volumes typically reflect growth in international trade, manufacturing, and supply chain demand. Passenger growth points to higher consumer confidence, business travel recovery, and robust tourism.July is usually a peak travel season in the Northern Hemisphere, but stronger-than-usual growth suggests that the industry may be moving beyond past slowdowns triggered by pandemic aftereffects, geopolitical disruptions, or supply chain constraints.Sustained improvements in both segments signal that stakeholders (governments, investors, airports, and logistics firms) see the industry on a stable growth trajectory, supporting investment and fleet expansion.Clearly, the improvement in passenger and cargo volumes in July highlights a rebound in the global air transport industry. Higher passenger traffic reflects strong travel demand, while increased cargo volumes point to healthy global trade flows.The dual rise in passengers and cargo confirms that the industry is on a path of resilience and long-term growth, supported by both consumer demand and global economic activity.Together, they indicate renewed economic momentum, rising consumer and business confidence, and a continued recovery in international connectivity.

Eurozone factory activity expanded for the first time since mid-2022 as domestic demand offset the impact from US tariffs while the Asian manufacturing sector saw shrinkage, private surveys showed Monday.There were mixed signals over the Chinese economy, however, as one such survey unexpectedly indicated modest expansion, contradicting an official readout the day before which showed activity continuing to shrink. Export powerhouses Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all saw manufacturing activity shrink in August, underscoring the challenge Asia faces in weathering the hit from sharply higher trade barriers erected by US President Donald Trump. In Europe, Greece and Spain led factory growth while manufacturing in Germany, the bloc's largest economy, shrank albeit at a slower pace.The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to an over-three-year high of 50.7 in August from 49.8 in July, surpassing the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction."The recovery is real but remains fragile. Inventory levels continue to decline, and the slightly accelerated drop in order backlogs shows that companies are still suffering from uncertainty," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. "Domestic orders have risen and are offsetting the weakening demand from abroad. In fact, the best remedy against US tariffs may be to strengthen domestic demand."Meanwhile, manufacturing in Germany rose to a 38-month high of 49.8, a whisker away from the 50 mark, offering hope for the economy that shrank 0.3% last quarter on slowing demand from its top trading partner the US.The EU and the US struck a framework trade deal in late July but only the baseline tariff of 15% has so far been implemented. In Britain, outside the European Union, factory activity suffered a fresh setback in August after signs of a recovery due to worries about trade tensions and tax increases at home.The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49.7 in August, improving from 48.9 in July but staying below the 50 threshold for two straight months.South Korea's factory activity also shrank with the S&P Global PMI standing at 48.3 in August, up from 48.0 in July but contracting for the seventh straight month.Both countries struck a trade deal with the US that eased, but not removed, the pressure on their export-reliant economies."It's a double-whammy for Asian economies, as they face higher US tariffs and competition from cheap Chinese exports," said Toru Nishihama, chief emerging market economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "We'll likely see the hit from US tariffs intensify going forward, with countries reliant on U.S.-bound shipments like Thailand and South Korea particularly vulnerable," he said.However, the RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, unexpectedly rose to 50.5 in August from 49.5 in July, exceeding the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. The reading confounds an official survey on Sunday that showed activity shrank for a fifth straight month on weak domestic demand and uncertainty over the outcome of Beijing's trade deal with the USHalf-way through the month Trump extended his tariff truce with China for another 90 days, withholding imposition of three-digit duties until November 10.Meanwhile, India, which grew at a much better-than-expected 7.8% in the last quarter, continued to be a significant outlier in the region. Manufacturing activity in Asia's third-largest economy expanded at its fastest pace in more than 17 years in August.But the Trump administration's steep 50% tariff on US imports of Indian goods like garments, gems and jewellery threatens to dampen growth in the coming quarters.

Qatar’s GDP growth will more than double in 2026-2027, with both the energy and non-energy sectors contributing positively this year and beyond, according to Oxford Economics.The researcher’s 2025 GDP growth forecast is unchanged at 2.4%, similar to the pace of expansion last year. However, trade-related uncertainty will remain a headwind to global demand, it said in a country report.Oxford Economics thinks growth in Qatar’s energy sector will remain modest this year, following a 0.6% expansion in 2024, before picking up strongly in 2026-2027.According to Oxford Economics, Qatar isn't involved in the OPEC+ pact on production quotas and its oil output has been relatively flat in recent years, at around 600,000 barrels per day.Last year, the authorities doubled down on the North Field gas expansion project, which will have a positive medium-term impact. Qatar raised its liquefied natural gas capacity target to 142mn tonnes per year by end-2030.This is up nearly 85% from the current 77mtpy, and up 13% on the intermediate target of 126mtpy by 2027. The first production boost will come from the North Field East project by mid-2026, followed by the North Field South phase of the expansion.The North Field West phase is in its early stages, with construction likely to begin in 2027.Qatar is also making progress in contracting future gas output. The government has signed long-term supply contracts with India, China, France, Germany, Hungary, Kuwait, and Taiwan, and is negotiating a deal with Japan.Output data (reported in April this year) showed the non-energy economy expanded by 3.4% last year, and the researcher projects the same pace of growth in 2025.The 2025 budget targets a deficit of QR13.2bn (1.6% of projected GDP). The authorities plan to raise spending by 4.6% relative to last year's budget and 1.2% relative to realised expenditure, with a strong focus on development in education and healthcare. The bill assumes an average oil price of $60/barrel.It projects a surplus of QR23bn (2.8% of GDP), larger than the surplus of QAR5.6bn (0.7% of GDP) realised in 2024. The researcher sees the balance improving to 5.7% of GDP next year amid the LNG production boost.Oxford Economics also noted tourism has provided significant support to non- energy growth and will remain a driver of future activity and employment.Qatar welcomed 5.1mn overnight arrivals in 2024, a 25% increase on 2023 and 138% higher than 2019 levels. The launch of the pan-GCC visa will likely help extend the positive performance and we forecast arrivals to increase to 5.3mn this year, it said.