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Oil prices climbed in early trade on Monday, trimming some of last week's losses, after OPEC+ agreed to slow the pace of output increases from October amid expectations of weaker global demand. Brent Crude gained 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $65.84 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 30 cents, or 0.5%, to $62.17 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell more than 2% on Friday as a weak US jobs report dimmed the outlook for energy demand. They lost more than 3% last week. Under the new OPEC+ decision, eight member countries will lift production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in October, far below the monthly increases of about 555,000 bpd for September and August, and 411,000 bpd in July and June.

As the oil market moves closer to a long-anticipated glut, traders are closely watching buying from China to see if it will absorb an excess that the world’s crude producing nations are set to pump.Earlier this year, China piled into the crude market to snap up millions of barrels, including some that went into its strategic storage. The buildup has since slowed down as the nation’s domestic demand picked up, but with expectations that Beijing will continue to amass barrels, its next steps are seen as critical.With China’s vast network of oil tank farms still a little over 50% full, according to OilX data, traders say another spree would limit the damage from a long-anticipated glut in other parts of the globe. That’s significant because if China’s buying is elevated, it will prevent a buildup of supply in a narrow set of hubs in Midwestern America and Northwest Europe, limiting how far prices can fall.“The key question is where stockbuilds will turn up,” HSBC Holdings Plc analysts including Kim Fustier wrote this week. “If China continues to absorb excess oil volumes via its strategic reserves, as it did in in the second quarter, stockbuilds in the OECD could be muted.”The global market’s capacity to absorb barrels will be among talking points when OPEC+ nations meet to discuss supply on Sunday. Saudi Arabia wants the group to accelerate the return of another tranche of halted output adding to concerns about a surplus that would depress prices but all options are on the table.About 10% of the nation’s crude stockpiling has been directed to its strategic petroleum reserves, according to Kayrros analyst Antoine Halff. There have also been additions to the country’s refining capacity, such as CNOOC Ltd’s Daxie plant, and the addition of new tank space.It’s also possible that Beijing wants to hold more barrels in storage given the heightened levels of geopolitical risks over the last few years, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies wrote in a note.While China’s flagship crude futures contract was flashing a softer market over recent weeks, the world’s two main benchmark’s continued to suggest relatively tight supplies.That’s because inventory builds so far this year have avoided western hubs. In Cushing, Oklahoma, the tank farm of about 15 storage terminals that underpins the West Texas Intermediate futures contract, inventories have been repeatedly near multi-year seasonal lows this year.The International Energy Agency says that in the second quarter global oil stockpiles increased by the most since the third three months of 2020, when the global economy was still being ravaged by the Covid-19 pandemic. Over that period, stockpiles in the developed world climbed by 60,000 barrels a day, while expanding by more than 1mn barrels a day everywhere else.It’s still possible that prices will need to fall from current levels for China buy in a big way, though, according to Frederic Lasserre, head of research at Gunvor Group.“The last solver that everybody is talking about is China,” he said. “Not for runs, but because we’ve seen a recent trend of them being willing to build up crude barrels. But if you expect China to go back to stockpiling 1mn barrels a day, you need a big price drop to incentivise it.”Both inside and outside of China there’s plenty of space to store unwanted oil.Bank of America Corp wrote last month that there’s about a billion barrels of empty tank capacity available across the globe to fill with inventories, which could mean that markets avoid falling into a heavily bearish structure.There are signs that the surge in production is starting to come, though. Brazil’s output approached 4mn barrels a day for the first time over the summer, and a new field is due to start in the country before the end of the year. Guyana has moved from producing nothing to almost 1mn barrels a day and output in Canada’s oil heartland of Alberta hit a record in July.At the same time, despite concerns about a decline in US output, the Energy Information Administration has consistently revised oil supply estimates higher over the last few months.What traders are waiting for now, is for those increases to appear at key storage hubs.“When we look at OECD inventories we’re still at a relatively low level,” Nadia Martin Wiggen, a director at Svelland Capital, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “Yes, there is this supply glut coming according to expectations, but we need to see that materialising.”

Qatar’s PMI climbing to 51.9 in August indicates accelerating non-oil private sector activity in the country, according to Oxford Economics.Last month, the PMI climbed to 51.9, which Oxford Economics noted is “fuelled by the fastest job creation and employment growth in the region”.Business activity in the GCC’s non-oil private sector continued to strengthen in August, Oxford Economics said.The UAE’s PMI rose to 53.3 from July’s four-year low of 52.9, driven by faster output growth. Saudi Arabia’s PMI edged up slightly to 56.4, supported by stronger client demand and infrastructure projects.“Overall, the GCC's non-oil private sector has seen sustained expansion this year, and we expect 4% growth in the region's non-oil output this year,” Oxford Economics said.In Saudi Arabia, credit growth slowed to 15.2% y/y in August but remained well above deposit growth of 8.4%. A sharper drop in mortgage lending suggests softer real estate activity, although consumer credit stayed strong.“We expect early interest rate cuts to support credit demand, likely pushing the average loan-to-deposit ratio to a new high. This could raise liquidity concerns in the coming months, especially if deposit growth continues to lag,” Oxford Economics noted.In a recent report the researcher noted Qatar's fiscal balance is estimated to scale up to 5.4% (of country’s GDP) in 2026 from 1.8% this year.A growing fiscal balance signals improved macroeconomic stability and a stronger ability to manage government debt in the country, an analyst noted.In an indication of the country’s level of international competitiveness, Qatar’s current account will improve further reaching 18.3% of the country’s GDP in 2026, from 17.5% this year.Qatar’s real GDP growth has been forecast at 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) this year, rising to 4.8% in 2026.Inflation has been forecast at 0.4% this year and 2.8% in 2026.In its last country report, Oxford Economics noted Qatar’s GDP growth “will more than double” in 2026-2027, with both the energy and non-energy sectors contributing positively this year and beyond, according to Oxford Economics.

OilOil prices fell on Friday as a weak US jobs report dimmed the outlook for energy demand, while swelling supplies may grow further after Opec and allied producers meet over the weekend. Brent crude futures settled at $65.50 a barrel, down $1.49. US WTI crude finished at $61.87, down $1.61.On Wednesday, Reuters reported that eight Opec+ producers would consider raising production further at a meeting on Sunday. US crude inventories rose 2.4mn barrels last week, rather than falling as analysts expected. US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 22,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 79,000 in July, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday.The weak jobs report will put pressure on the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Expectations are growing that Opec+ – the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia – will decide at Sunday's meeting to push more barrels into the market to regain market share.The group would be starting to unwind a second layer of output cuts of about 1.65mn barrels per day, or 1.6% of world demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump told European leaders on Thursday that Europe must stop buying Russian oil. Any cuts to Russia's crude exports or other disruption to supplies could push oil prices higher.GasAsian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices held steady last week as regional demand remained muted, while a gas supply deal between Russia and China is seen curbing future LNG shipments from the top Asian importer.Industry sources estimated that the average LNG price for October delivery into Northeast Asia was $11.30 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), up slightly from $11.15 per mmBtu the previous week. Meanwhile, following the first unloading of an LNG cargo from Russia's sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project in China, Beijing and Moscow this week signed agreements to increase gas supply via the existing Power of Siberia pipeline, and to construct the Power of Siberia 2, though they have yet to agree on pricing.China is sending a clear geopolitical signal that it is willing to receive more Russian gas, reducing LNG dependency from other sources from 2027 and influencing the profitability of other LNG producers. In Europe, the Dutch TTF hub settled at $11.02 per mmBtu, recording a weekly gain of 2.6%. Continued supply growth from the US helped to offset the decline seen from Nigeria. This also comes at a time where imports into Europe have seen slight declines as subsided heatwaves and easing fears over storage added further bearish tailwinds into the market. The US arbitrage to Northeast Asia via the Cape of Good Hope narrowed significantly last week, only marginally incentivising US cargo deliveries to Europe.This article was supplied by the Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah International Foundation for Energy and Sustainable Development.

Opec+ leader Saudi Arabia wants the group to consider reviving more oil production ahead of its scheduled return at the end of next year amid a push to reclaim market share, people familiar with the matter said.Key alliance members will hold a video conference on Sunday that will consider what to do with a 1.66mn barrels a day tranche of halted supplies, having just fast-tracked the return of a previous layer over the past five months.No decision has been made, and it’s not clear whether any increase would be agreed as soon as Sunday or only in later months, some of the people said. Saudi Arabia, which drove the accelerated restart in a bid to recapture global market share, wants to further boost production as it seeks to offset lower prices with higher volumes, they said. Any proposal to increase production could run into opposition from other members keen to prop up prices.If it happens, such a move would cement a dramatic Opec+ strategy shift toward defending market share over prices, piling pressure on some member nations, especially those that can’t pump more. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is set to visit Washington in November to meet President Donald Trump, who’s called for lower fuel prices.A range of options remains possible, including pausing hikes for a period, the people added. The Opec+ alliance is jointly led by Saudi Arabia and Russia.Delegates from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have said Saudi Arabia is eager to claw back sales volumes ceded to rivals like US shale drillers.“Our latest soundings from the group suggest they are very much considering unwinding that final tranche” of halted supply “sooner rather than later,” Livia Gallarati, global crude lead at Energy Aspects Ltd, said in a Bloomberg television interview. In practice, any volumes added to the market would be smaller than pledged because of spare-capacity constraints, she added.Officials in Saudi Arabia weren’t immediately available for comment outside the country’s normal office hours.Further production increases by Opec+ threaten to swell a surplus in the fourth quarter anticipated by forecasters like the International Energy Agency, adding to downward pressure on prices. Even so, oil futures which initially fell when the group began restoring its 2.2mn barrels a day of shuttered supply back in April have actually rallied since.While extra oil would be a boon for consumers and a win for Trump, it’s a financial threat for producers from the US shale industry to Opec+ members themselves.The majority of crude traders surveyed by Bloomberg this week had expected Opec+ to pause before proceeding with any further increases, as global markets are already on track for a surplus this year. That was before Reuters reported the possibility of an increase.Brent futures are down roughly 10% this year, trading around $65.70 a barrel in London on Friday. Goldman Sachs Group Inc predicted in a note that the international benchmark will slump to the low-$50s next year as markets face oversupply.Trump has called for lower prices in order to cushion the cost of living, and tame inflation while he presses the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates. The president has also said that weaker prices will help him pressure Russia to end its war against Ukraine.Sunday’s meeting is one of the countries’ regular monthly gatherings to review the oil market and adherence with existing supply restrictions.

India will roll out a package of measures to help exporters hurt by a surge in US tariffs, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.The new US duties slapped on Indian goods last month included a 25% punitive levy over New Delhi’s Russian oil purchases - taking overall duties as high as 50% on a wide range of items from garments and jewellery to footwear and chemicals."The government will come out with something to handhold those who have been hit by 50% tariffs," Sitharaman told CNBC TV18, without going into further detail.The government plans to offer credit guarantees on loans overdue by up to 90 days for small businesses and exporters, Reuters reported earlier, citing government sources.Exporters said labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, jewellery and seafood, particularly shrimp - which all operate on margins of just 3%-5% - have been hit hardest, causing job losses in industrial hubs in Tamil Nadu and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat."Textiles and apparel manufacturers in Tiruppur, Noida and Surat have halted production amid worsening cost competitiveness," S C Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), said.The tariffs, among the highest imposed by the administration of US President Donald Trump, delivered a serious blow to ties between the two powerful democracies that had in recent decades become strategic partners.Nearly 55% of Indian exports to the US, worth about $48bn, now face a cost disadvantage against rivals from Vietnam, China and Bangladesh, Ralhan said last week ahead of an exporters' meeting with the finance minister.Thousands of workers have already been laid off, exporters have said.

Oil prices extended losses for a third consecutive session in early trading Friday as markets awaited the outcome of an OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday that will discuss the possibility of further production increases.Brent Crude futures fell 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $66.77 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 19 cents, or 0.3%, to $63.29. At the upcoming meeting, OPEC+ members will weigh an additional output hike in October. Such a move would begin to unwind a second tranche of production cuts totaling about 1.65 million barrels per day, equivalent to 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule.The group currently accounts for roughly half of the world's oil supply. On the supply side, US crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 2.4 million barrels last week as refineries entered seasonal maintenance. Analysts had forecast a 2-million-barrel draw, while data from the American Petroleum Institute indicated a smaller build of around 600,000 barrels.

Eight Opec+ countries to meet on SundayOpec+ could also pause hikes for October, source saysNo immediate comment received from Opec or Saudi authoritiesEight Opec+ members will consider further raising oil production at a meeting on Sunday, two sources familiar with the discussions said, as the group seeks to regain market share.Opec+ has reversed its strategy of output cuts from April and has already raised quotas by about 2.5mn barrels per day, about 2.4% of world demand, to boost market share and under pressure from US President Donald Trump to lower oil prices.But those increases have failed to bring down oil prices, which traded near $68 a barrel supported by Western sanctions on Russia and Iran, encouraging further production gains in rivals such as the US.Another output boost would mean Opec+, which pumps about half of the world's oil, would be starting to unwind a second layer of cuts of about 1.65mn barrels per day, or 1.6% of world demand, more than a year ahead of schedule.Eight Opec+ countries are due to hold an online meeting on Sunday expected to decide on October output.Opec+ includes the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies.There is also a chance, some analysts and an Opec+ source said, that Opec+ could pause the increases for October. A final decision has not been made, the Opec+ source said.Opec headquarters and authorities in Saudi Arabia did not immediately respond to requests for comment.Brent crude was trading near $68 on Wednesday, down over 1% on the day but up from a 2025 low of near $58 in April.As well as sanctions, the Opec+ hikes falling short of the pledged amounts have also supported prices, analysts have said.Until April, Opec+ had been curtailing production for several years to support oil prices.At their last meeting in August, the eight members raised production by 547,000 bpd for September, completing a total increase in output for the year of 2.5mn bpd. That included a 300,000 bpd additional production allocation for the UAE.The next output cut layer of 1.65mn bpd is in place until the end of 2026, as is another 2mn bpd of cuts by the whole group.

Market EyeTracking weaker oil prices, the Qatar Stock Exchange Wednesday fell more than 41 points and its key barometer retreated below 11,200 levels as foreign funds hurriedly squared off their position.The telecom, industrials and real estate counters witnessed higher than average selling pressure as the 20-stock Qatar Index shed 0.37% to 11,142.37 points, although it touched an intraday high of 11,212 points.The foreign individuals were seen increasingly net sellers in the main market, whose year-to-date gains truncated to 5.4%.About 61% of the traded constituents were in the red in the main bourse, whose capitalisation eroded QR3.49bn or 0.52% to QR664.85bn, mainly on small and microcap segments.However, the Gulf institutions were seen net buyers in the main market, which saw as many as 3,122 exchange traded funds (sponsored by AlRayan Bank and Doha Bank) valued at QR7,490 trade across seven deals.The local retail investors were increasingly bullish in the main bourse, whose trade turnover and volumes were on the rise.The Islamic index was seen declining slower than the other indices of the main market, which saw no trading of treasury bills.The Arab individuals were increasingly net buyers in the main bourse, which saw no trading of sovereign bonds.The Total Return Index shed 0.37%, the All Share Index by 0.4% and the All Islamic Index by 0.27% in the main market.The telecom sector declined 0.71%, industrials (0.64%), realty (0.48%), banks and financial services (0.37%), insurance (0.36%) and transport (0.26%); while consumer goods and services was up 0.05%.Major shakers in the main market included Estithmar Holding, Commercial Bank, Al Mahhar Holding, Meeza, Mazaya Qatar, QNB, Baladna, Industries Qatar, Ezdan, Ooredoo, Vodafone Qatar and Milaha.In the junior bourse, Techno Q saw its shares depreciate in value.Nevertheless, Mannai Corporation, Qatar Islamic Bank, QIIB, Inma Holding and Widam Food were among the gainers in the main market.The foreign institutions turned net sellers to the tune of QR43.06mn compared with net buyers of QR10.76mn the previous day.The foreign retail investors’ net profit booking increased marginally to QR0.66mn against QR0.41mn on September 2.However, the Gulf institutions were net buyers to the extent of QR11.81mn compared with net sellers of QR6.07mn on Tuesday.The local retail investors’ net buying strengthened significantly to QR11.65mn against QR2.15mn the previous day.The Arab individual investors’ net buying expanded substantially to QR10.86mn compared to QR3.91mn on September 2.The domestic funds turned net buyers to the tune of QR8.63mn against net profit takers of QR10.75mn on Tuesday.The Gulf individual investors’ net buying increased marginally to QR0.77mn compared to QR0.4mn the previous day.The Arab institutions had no major net exposure for the third straight session.The main market saw a 57% jump in trade volumes to 134.27mn shares and 54% in value to QR401.92mn on more than doubled deals to 30,365.In the venture market, a total of 0.69mn equities valued at QR1.87mn changed hands across 107 transactions.

Market Eye Oil price slippage had its reflection on the Qatar Stock Exchange, which Monday lost as much as 47 points as the Arab individual investors turned net profit takers. The insurance, industrials, transport and banking counters witnessed higher than average selling pressure as the 20-stock Qatar Index shed 0.42% to 11,175.48 points, although it touched an intraday high of 11,230 points. The Gulf institutions were seen bearish in the main market, whose year-to-date gains truncated further to 5.72%. The domestic funds’ weakened net buying had its influence on the main bourse, whose capitalisation melted QR2.51bn or 0.37 to QR667.34bn, mainly on small and microcap segments. The local retail investors continued to be net sellers but with lesser intensity in the main market, which saw as many as 2,438 exchange traded funds (sponsored by Doha Bank) valued at QR0.03mn trade across six deals. The foreign individuals turned net buyers in the main bourse, whose trade turnover and volumes were on the decline. The Islamic index was seen declining slower than the other indices of the main market, which saw no trading of treasury bills. The foreign institutions turned bullish in the main bourse, which saw no trading of sovereign bonds. The Total Return Index shed 0.42%, the All Share Index by 0.39% and the All Islamic Index by 0.32% in the main market. The insurance sector index declined 0.8%, industrials (0.58%), transport (0.51%), banks and financial services (0.44%) and telecom (0.33%): while consumer goods and services gained 0.68% and real estate 0.12%. About 53% of the traded constituents were in the red with major losers in the main market being Estithmar Holding, Milaha, Qatar Insurance, QIIB, Commercial Bank, Industries Qatar, Ooredoo and Qatar Electricity and Water. Nevertheless, Qatar German Medical Devices, Meeza, Woqod, AlRayan Bank, Baladna and Al Faleh Educational Holding were among the movers in the main bourse. In the venture market, Techno Q saw its shares appreciate in value. The Arab individual investors turned net sellers to the tune of QR1.76mn compared with net buyers of QR2.24mn on Sunday. The Gulf institutions were net sellers to the extent of QR1.26mn against net buyers of QR9.82mn the previous day. The domestic institutions’ net buying decreased noticeably to QR1.21mn compared to QR6.37mn on August 31. However, the foreign retail investors turned net buyers to the tune of QR5.64mn against net sellers of QR0.8mn on Sunday. The foreign institutions were net buyers to the extent of QR2.07mn compared with net sellers of QR12.01mn the previous day. The Gulf individual investors’ net buying expanded perceptibly to QR1.45mn against QR0.52mn on August 31. The local retail investors’ net profit booking weakened markedly to QR3.2mn compared to QR6.45mn on Sunday. The Arab institutions had no major net exposure against net buyers to the extent of QR0.32mn the previous day. The main market saw 2% slump in trade volumes to 105.81mn shares, less than 1% in value to QR278.54n and 17% in deals to 14,385. In the venture market, a total of 0.07mn equities valued at QR0.2mn changed hands across 16 transactions.

Oil prices fell on Friday as traders looked toward weaker demand in the US, the world's largest oil market, and a boost in supply this autumn from OPEC and its allies. Brent crude futures for October delivery, which expired on Friday, settled at $68.12 a barrel, down 50 cents.West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $64.01, down 59 cents. The market was in part shifting its focus toward next week's OPEC+ meeting.Crude output has increased from OPEC+, as the group has accelerated output hikes to regain market share, raising the supply outlook and weighing on global oil prices. Meanwhile, the US summer driving season ends on Monday's Labor Day holiday, signalling the end of the highest demand period in the country, which is the largest fuel market.Crude supply increases have yet to reach the US market, raising the prospect of a tighter balance between supply and demand. Earlier in the week, prices rose on news of Ukrainian attacks against Russian oil export terminals, but reports of ceasefire discussions between Ukraine’s European allies helped ease the upward pressure.US crude inventories for the week ending August 22 posted larger-than-expected draws, suggesting late-summer demand remained firm, especially across industrial and freight-related sectors. Meanwhile, analysts noted that investors are closely watching India’s response to US pressure to curb purchases of Russian oil.GasAsian spot LNG prices slipped last week on muted demand and ample supply, with the delivery of an LNG cargo from a sanctioned Russian project adding to supply concerns. The average LNG price for October delivery into Northeast Asia was at $11.15 per mmBtu, down from $11.40 per mmBtu last week, industry sources estimated. LNG market sentiment remained calm with arbitrage for US cargoes still Europe-bound.Major Northeast Asian buyers have limited interest in prompt cargoes due to high stocks and a relatively loosened Pacific balance. The risk of Russia's Arctic LNG 2 ramping up LNG exports has significantly increased with the first unloading of a cargo from the facility in China.A full, sustained ramp-up of the first two trains at Arctic LNG 2 is a significant downside risk to Asian spot LNG prices. The Arctic LNG 2 cargo delivery has weighed on Chinese demand expectations for spot LNG, freeing up spot supply elsewhere. Additional supply from new projects is putting downward pressure on prices.Besides ramp-ups from Plaquemines in the US, new projects like LNG Canada, Greater Tortue Ahmeyim offshore West Africa and Congo LNG could add around 0.5mn tons per month in July and August, while the return of Norway's Hammerfest LNG after being offline since May represents a recovery of around 400,000 tons per month. In Europe, the Dutch TTF hub settled at $10.74 per mmBtu, recording a weekly loss of more than 6%.

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s oil export pipelines and a doubling of US tariffs on goods imported from India appear to be hitting Moscow’s crude flows.Weekly crude shipments from Russian ports fell by 320,000 barrels a day in the week to August 24, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show.Flows dropped to a four-week low of 2.72mn barrels a day, pushed down by reduced loadings at the Baltic port of Ust-Luga. The drop left four-week average crude shipments little changed, with seaborne cargoes averaging 3.06mn barrels a day.Ukraine has intensified attacks targeting Russia’s oil infrastructure, hitting a major pumping station on the nation’s export pipeline network and several refineries.The Unecha pump station, on the Druzhba pipeline system close to Russia’s border with Belarus, was targeted by Ukrainian drones twice in the past two weeks.The attacks have halted piped crude deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia and appear to have hampered shipments from the port of Ust-Luga on Russia’s Baltic coast. The Baltic Pipeline System 2, which carries Russian and Kazakh crude to the port, begins at Unecha.Storage tanks at the port mean that any halt in deliveries may not result in an immediate drop in shipments, but only two tankers loaded Russian crude at Ust-Luga last week, down from four during the previous seven days and six in the week to August 10, the tracking data and shipping reports show.Recent strikes on the Volgograd and Novoshakhtinsk refineries helped to push Russia’s crude processing down by about 700,000 barrels a day in the third week of August from the average during the last week of July. That ought to free up more crude for export, if processing is halted for long periods.Separately, President Donald Trump’s doubling of US import tariffs on goods from India to 50%, imposed because of New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil, appears to hitting the flow of Moscow’s crude to the south Asian nation, though it’s unclear how long the trend will persist.Shipments heading to India have fallen by more than 500,000 barrels a day over the past two months and even if all the tankers with no confirmed destination end up discharging at Indian ports, flows would still be down by 300,000 barrels a day, or 17%, since late June.The tariff increase could yet be reversed or paused, but refiners are planning to trim purchases of Russian crude in the coming weeks, a modest concession to Washington’s pressure, but also a signal that New Delhi doesn’t plan to cut ties with Moscow. Nevertheless, Russia sees the discounts it offers Indian refiners as big enough to keep them buying its oil.The US president has repeatedly said he would increase sanctions against Moscow if it failed to agree a ceasefire in Ukraine, most recently on Friday, but the threats have so far come to nothing.Trump’s recent meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Alaska saw the Russian leader conceding little, but getting another stay of execution on threatened US secondary tariffs on China. Chinese refiners have stepped up purchases of discounted cargoes relinquished by India.A total of 25 tankers loaded 19.07mn barrels of Russian crude in the week to August 24, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down from 21.3mn barrels on 28 ships the previous week.Crude flows in the period to August 24 stood at about 3.06mn barrels a day on a four-week average basis, up by 20,000 barrels a day from the period to August 17.The four-week average smooths out big swings in weekly numbers, giving a clearer picture of underlying trends in crude flows. Using more volatile weekly figures, shipments fell by about 320,000 barrels to a four-week low of 2.72mn barrels a day. The drop in weekly flows was driven by fewer cargoes being loaded at Ust-Luga.The gross value of Moscow’s exports fell by about $110mn, or 9%, to $1.11bn in the week to August 24 from $1.22bn the previous week. The drop in flows was compounded by slightly lower average prices for Russia’s crudes.