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Eurozone factory activity expanded for the first time since mid-2022 as domestic demand offset the impact from US tariffs while the Asian manufacturing sector saw shrinkage, private surveys showed Monday.There were mixed signals over the Chinese economy, however, as one such survey unexpectedly indicated modest expansion, contradicting an official readout the day before which showed activity continuing to shrink. Export powerhouses Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all saw manufacturing activity shrink in August, underscoring the challenge Asia faces in weathering the hit from sharply higher trade barriers erected by US President Donald Trump. In Europe, Greece and Spain led factory growth while manufacturing in Germany, the bloc's largest economy, shrank albeit at a slower pace.The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to an over-three-year high of 50.7 in August from 49.8 in July, surpassing the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction."The recovery is real but remains fragile. Inventory levels continue to decline, and the slightly accelerated drop in order backlogs shows that companies are still suffering from uncertainty," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. "Domestic orders have risen and are offsetting the weakening demand from abroad. In fact, the best remedy against US tariffs may be to strengthen domestic demand."Meanwhile, manufacturing in Germany rose to a 38-month high of 49.8, a whisker away from the 50 mark, offering hope for the economy that shrank 0.3% last quarter on slowing demand from its top trading partner the US.The EU and the US struck a framework trade deal in late July but only the baseline tariff of 15% has so far been implemented. In Britain, outside the European Union, factory activity suffered a fresh setback in August after signs of a recovery due to worries about trade tensions and tax increases at home.The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49.7 in August, improving from 48.9 in July but staying below the 50 threshold for two straight months.South Korea's factory activity also shrank with the S&P Global PMI standing at 48.3 in August, up from 48.0 in July but contracting for the seventh straight month.Both countries struck a trade deal with the US that eased, but not removed, the pressure on their export-reliant economies."It's a double-whammy for Asian economies, as they face higher US tariffs and competition from cheap Chinese exports," said Toru Nishihama, chief emerging market economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "We'll likely see the hit from US tariffs intensify going forward, with countries reliant on U.S.-bound shipments like Thailand and South Korea particularly vulnerable," he said.However, the RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, unexpectedly rose to 50.5 in August from 49.5 in July, exceeding the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. The reading confounds an official survey on Sunday that showed activity shrank for a fifth straight month on weak domestic demand and uncertainty over the outcome of Beijing's trade deal with the USHalf-way through the month Trump extended his tariff truce with China for another 90 days, withholding imposition of three-digit duties until November 10.Meanwhile, India, which grew at a much better-than-expected 7.8% in the last quarter, continued to be a significant outlier in the region. Manufacturing activity in Asia's third-largest economy expanded at its fastest pace in more than 17 years in August.But the Trump administration's steep 50% tariff on US imports of Indian goods like garments, gems and jewellery threatens to dampen growth in the coming quarters.

Qatar’s GDP growth will more than double in 2026-2027, with both the energy and non-energy sectors contributing positively this year and beyond, according to Oxford Economics.The researcher’s 2025 GDP growth forecast is unchanged at 2.4%, similar to the pace of expansion last year. However, trade-related uncertainty will remain a headwind to global demand, it said in a country report.Oxford Economics thinks growth in Qatar’s energy sector will remain modest this year, following a 0.6% expansion in 2024, before picking up strongly in 2026-2027.According to Oxford Economics, Qatar isn't involved in the OPEC+ pact on production quotas and its oil output has been relatively flat in recent years, at around 600,000 barrels per day.Last year, the authorities doubled down on the North Field gas expansion project, which will have a positive medium-term impact. Qatar raised its liquefied natural gas capacity target to 142mn tonnes per year by end-2030.This is up nearly 85% from the current 77mtpy, and up 13% on the intermediate target of 126mtpy by 2027. The first production boost will come from the North Field East project by mid-2026, followed by the North Field South phase of the expansion.The North Field West phase is in its early stages, with construction likely to begin in 2027.Qatar is also making progress in contracting future gas output. The government has signed long-term supply contracts with India, China, France, Germany, Hungary, Kuwait, and Taiwan, and is negotiating a deal with Japan.Output data (reported in April this year) showed the non-energy economy expanded by 3.4% last year, and the researcher projects the same pace of growth in 2025.The 2025 budget targets a deficit of QR13.2bn (1.6% of projected GDP). The authorities plan to raise spending by 4.6% relative to last year's budget and 1.2% relative to realised expenditure, with a strong focus on development in education and healthcare. The bill assumes an average oil price of $60/barrel.It projects a surplus of QR23bn (2.8% of GDP), larger than the surplus of QAR5.6bn (0.7% of GDP) realised in 2024. The researcher sees the balance improving to 5.7% of GDP next year amid the LNG production boost.Oxford Economics also noted tourism has provided significant support to non- energy growth and will remain a driver of future activity and employment.Qatar welcomed 5.1mn overnight arrivals in 2024, a 25% increase on 2023 and 138% higher than 2019 levels. The launch of the pan-GCC visa will likely help extend the positive performance and we forecast arrivals to increase to 5.3mn this year, it said.