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Qatar National Bank (QNB) has reaffirmed its previous forecast that the US Federal Reserve will implement two additional 25-basis-point interest rate cuts. One of these cuts is expected next week, with the second likely to occur in the first quarter of 2026. This would bring the interest rate closer to the bank's estimated neutral level of 3.5%.In its weekly commentary, QNB said: "The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has entered one of its most contested policy periods in decades. The 25 basis points (bps) policy rate cut delivered in October was notable not for its size, but for the lack of consensus in reaching this decision. As highlighted in our November commentary, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voted against any cut while Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favour of a larger 50 bps reduction. This combination of simultaneous "hawkish" and "dovish" dissents remains exceedingly rare in the modern Fed, an institution that historically prized for consensus and predictability.The divisions were further illuminated by the latest FOMC minutes released in late November. They show growing disagreement around both the inflation outlook and the appropriate pace of easing. While most participants acknowledged that disinflation is progressing and that labour market slack is widening, the degree of conviction varies widely. Some policymakers view the current stance as still "restrictive," requiring continued steps toward more rate cuts to neutral or even accommodative territory. Others, however, fear that easing too quickly could risk re-accelerating price pressures, especially given uncertainty surrounding tariffs and supply-side bottlenecks."These divisions have translated into volatile market expectations. There is still significant market uncertainty about rate cuts throughout 2026. The key question is whether the Fed's internal fragmentation will push policy either toward a much deeper easing cycle or toward an early pause if inflation surprises to the upside. We believe neither extreme is likely and reiterate our call for two more rate cuts towards 3.5%, which we consider the low end of the "neutral" level range where rates are neither restrictive nor accommodative."The bank pointed out, "First, political pressures and incoming changes in the Board of Governors favour at least a move towards a neutral stance from the Fed. President Trump's increasingly vocal preferences for deeper rate cuts and his early signalling about the type of "dovish" successor he wants for the Chairmanship after Powell's term ends in May 2026 have raised the stakes around every FOMC meeting. This dynamic is compounded by ongoing changes in the Board's composition. Each new appointment or possibility of new appointment shift expectations about the Fed's medium-term bias, making decisions more contentions. At the margin, however, "doves" are getting stronger, even if this has been met with stronger opposition from the dwindling "hawks" that want to prevent too much easing."Second, inflation uncertainty has declined significantly compared to the peaks witnessed after the "Liberation Day" tariffs. Shelter inflation, previously the main source of inflation stickiness, has moderated steadily, and goods inflation continues to normalise as supply chains adjust. As we discussed in previous notes, tariffs still pose short-term upside risks to inflation but are increasingly seen as transitory and "looked through" by most policymakers, rather than a structural driver of inflation. This opens the door for further rate cuts."Third, despite month-to-month volatility and uncertainty associated with shutdown date release delays, labour markets trends continue to point to a significant deterioration. Job opening has fallen precipitously, layoffs have accelerated, and private payroll trackers point to further softening. As highlighted in our November commentary on the Fed, US employers cut more than 150,000 jobs in October, the sharpest reduction for the month in over two decades. For the first time since the pandemic, the labour market "jobs gap" now suggests slack or more civilian labour force than the sum of employment and job openings. This dynamic strengthens the argument for additional easing, even for members of the FOMC who have been cautious about inflation."QNB concluded: "All in all, we maintain our view that there is policy space for two additional 25 bps cuts, one later this week in December and another one in Q1-2026, bringing the policy rate close to the lower bound of our neutral level estimate of 3.5%. However, we also believe market expectations for a longer series of cuts throughout 2026 are too optimistic. The economy is slowing but shows no sign of a sharper downturn, and the trajectory for inflation, while improving, faces uncertainties related to tariffs and the speed of convergence back to the 2% target. In other words, the Fed is divided, the debate is intensifying, but the medium-term path is likely to be more moderate than either the most dovish FOMC members or current market pricing suggest." 

Turkish inflation cooled more than expected in November, clearing a path for the central bank to deliver a more sizeable interest-rate cut next week.Annual price growth slowed to 31.1% last month, the national statistics office said Wednesday, from 32.9% in October. The print was lower than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey with the median forecast 31.6%.Monthly prices meanwhile, eased significantly to 0.9%, from 2.6% in October. This is the first time since May 2023 that monthly prices came in below a rate of 1%. A decline in food prices contributed to a smaller reading in November — a correction to the very sharp increases in previous months, said QNB Bank AS chief economist Erkin Isik.Turkish banking index rose as much as 1.6% in Istanbul trading after the data, while the lira was little changed at 42.45 per the US dollar as of 10.47am local time.“Turkiye’s softer-than-expected November inflation does little to alter the still-elevated medium-term outlook. Even so, the central bank is likely to read the downside surprise as support for its easing cycle — which we expect it to pursue in measured steps,” says Selva Bahar Baziki, economist, Bloomberg Economics.Wednesday’s inflation readings will play an important role in determining expectations on how sizeable of a rate cut the central bank will deliver when it meets on December 11. Monetary policymakers last reduced rates by 100 basis points — slowing the pace — to 39.5% in October, from a peak of 50%.“We maintain our forecast for a 100bp cut, but, if anything, the risks are skewed towards a bigger move,” said Nicholas Farr, emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics, in a note.Henrik Gullberg, macro strategist at Coex Partners, said the data could prompt the central bank to cut more than the 100 basis points they delivered in October. “But with risks of a bit of a bounce in December inflation, I think it will not be a return to the 250 basis points we saw in September or the 300 basis points in July.”QNB’s Isik calculated the main inflation trend, a metric closely monitored by the central bank, remaining around 2%, with no improvement from previous months in November. “We don’t expect the central bank to increase the pace of rate cuts” from October, he said.Turkiye’s economy slowed more than expected in the third quarter in annual terms, according to data released on Monday, while expanding more than anticipated on a quarterly basis. That’s created a confusing outlook though some economists suggest the bank will focus on the headline figure, further fuelling it to continue with rate cuts. 

QNB Group hosted a special ceremony in recognition of its top-performing and long-serving employees who have made dedication, innovation, and outstanding contributions to the bank’s success. Certificates of appreciation were handed to more than 70 employees. The event was attended by Abdulla Mubarak al-Khalifa, QNB Group CEO, along with senior members of the executive management and employees. The ceremony, held under the theme ‘Our People, Our True Wealth’, honoured long-serving employees and young Qatari talent from various departments of the bank as a token of appreciation for their exemplary loyalty, professionalism, and commitment to help the bank grow as a leading financial institution in Qatar and the region. The initiative comes within QNB’s continued commitment to employee recognition and empowerment. Al-Khalifa said: “We are proud of our employees, who remain the cornerstone of QNB’s success, under common goals and a shared vision inspired by the Qatar National Vision 2030.**media[388599]**We remain focused on fostering an inclusive and forward-thinking workplace for our employees. “This is a moment of immense pride and legacy to celebrate your invaluable contributions that continue to drive us forward to consolidating our position as a true partner in development and one of the leading financial institutions that has successfully balanced economic ambition with social responsibility, in full alignment with sustainability goals." The event was not only a celebration of achievements but also a motivational platform for QNB’s future ambitions. With its talent-driven strategy at its core, QNB aims to continue its legacy of innovation, operational excellence, and transformative leadership in the financial sector, a statement added.

QNB Group has been recognised as Qatar’s Best Cash Management Bank 2025 by Euromoney during the Transaction Banking Awards ceremony held recently in London.The prestigious recognition reflects the group’s continued commitment to providing advanced cash management solutions that empower corporate and institutional clients to manage liquidity efficiently, optimise working capital, and enhance operational performance.Judged by Euromoney’s expert editorial team, the Transaction Banking Awards recognise institutions that demonstrate excellence and innovation across cash management, payments, trade finance, and digital transformation.The award also highlights the bank’s leadership in adopting innovative digital solutions to meet the evolving needs of clients, reinforcing its role as a trusted partner in driving the future of transaction banking.As part of its strategy, QNB continues to invest in cutting-edge technologies and digital platforms to deliver seamless, secure, and efficient banking experiences for its customers across its international network. 

QNB has successfully become the first bank in the GCC to enable Weixin e-commerce acceptance, through a successful collaboration with Darwish Holding and NETSTARS.The ground-breaking initiative enables QNB’s e-commerce merchants to offer Weixin Pay (known internationally as WeChat) as a payment option, catering to the growing number of Chinese tourists and residents. The service is now live on selected Darwish Holding’s retail online stores, including Fifty One East, Fnac, iSpace, and Toysaloona in Qatar.By integrating Weixin’s extensive e-commerce ecosystem into the GCC, the collaboration fosters greater financial inclusivity and drives digital innovation. Customers can now enjoy safe, seamless, and secure transactions at local merchants, enhancing their overall shopping experience. As a pioneer in e-commerce and digital payment innovation, QNB continues to play a central role in transforming Qatar’s financial and banking landscape.As a digital banking leader, QNB has played a vital role in enabling the successful implementation of this solution by leveraging its robust acquiring infrastructure and advanced payment gateway systems. The bank worked closely with Darwish Holding and NETSTARS to ensure full compliance with international security standards and seamless integration with local merchants.Darwish Holding’s partnership with QNB and NETSTARS to introduce Weixin Pay to the e-commerce landscape in Qatar reflects its commitment to anticipating global consumer expectations and delivering a best-in-class retail experience.In support of the country’s ongoing efforts to attract tourists, especially from China, it is only natural that it adapts and offers familiar, seamless solutions tailored to the customers’ needs. Darwish Holding and its subsidiaries have long championed retail innovation, and this collaboration further reinforces Qatar’s position as a modern, welcoming destination.As for NETSTARS Co, Ltd, the introduction of Weixin Pay in Qatar’s e-commerce landscape aligns with its mission to expand seamless, secure payment experiences globally. This step comes to support the advancement of cashless solutions in Qatar and to help enhance everyday services for both residents and visitors.The strategic collaboration, Weixin Pay TENCENT will make it easier for Chinese tourists to access seamless, secure, and efficient payment solutions while enjoying their travels and shopping online in Qatar, further enhancing their overall experience and strengthening Weixin’s presence in the region.QNB is committed to driving digital payment innovation and providing seamless payment solutions that enhance customer convenience. The introduction of Weixin Pay for e-commerce in Qatar is a testament to the bank’s efforts in supporting the evolving needs of merchants and consumers while extending its leadership in the region’s financial sector. 

QNB ruled out that the new economic stimulus package will create a major change in Japan’s economic growth trends, expecting growth to slow to 0.6% annually during 2026-2027, compared to the 1.1% growth forecast for this year.In its weekly report, the bank noted that Japan has entered a new phase of economic policy following Sanae Takaichi’s assumption of leadership as Prime Minister, the first woman to ever hold the position.It pointed out that Takaichi has pledged to revive Japan’s economic growth by adopting what she called a responsible, proactive fiscal policy.The report said that this policy aims to strike a delicate balance between allocating spending to strategic sectors and maintaining financial sustainability, while controlling Japan’s very large public debt.In this context, the bank said that boosting growth in Japan is a difficult task for a country facing significant structural challenges and uncertain global outlooks.The analysis in the report was based on several key factors, including the fact that a slowdown in consumption places a major burden on growth, given that household consumption accounts for about 60% of the Japanese economy, and is therefore a decisive factor in its performance.QNB pointed out that, although consumption has improved this year compared to 2024, it has recently shown signs of stagnation.It attributed weak consumption to the erosion of households’ purchasing power due to high inflation rates. Real wages adjusted for prices have contracted throughout this year after several months of gains at the end of last year, a trend expected to continue.The report added that the Bank of Japan has continued normalizing its monetary policy, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5% from a deeply negative 0.1%, which has increased borrowing costs for households and reduced the space available for fiscal policy due to higher debt servicing costs.The bank said that these negative factors could be obstacles to Japan’s economic growth, given the important role of consumption.Regarding the second factor underlying the analysis, it noted a decline in external support for exports, weakening Japan’s major growth engine, which is heavily reliant on global integration.In this context, the report referred to the trade agreement concluded between Japan and the United States last July, which imposed a standard tariff of 15% on most Japanese imports to the US, compared to an average tariff of 1.5% last year, placing an additional burden on the economy.Furthermore, the bank argued that the anticipated slowdown in global trade, amid uncertainty surrounding trade policies and ongoing geopolitical tensions, adds to pessimism about the Japanese economy. Exports account for about 20% of GDP and are a key driver of industrial production, making weak export prospects a major obstacle to economic performance.In conclusion, the report said that, given these challenges, the new government will seek drastic measures to boost growth. Within weeks of taking office, Takaichi unveiled plans to launch a fiscal stimulus package worth 21.3 trillion yen (about $135 billion), the first major economic initiative of her administration. 

QNB Group, the largest financial institution in the Middle East and Africa, has been honoured with the ‘Innovation Award’ at the Red Hat Summit 2025, in recognition of the bank’s leadership in digital transformation, hybrid-cloud adoption, and its strategic advancements in AI-driven financial services. The award was accepted by Information Technology experts from QNB, reflecting the bank’s commitment to modernising its technology landscape and pioneering new solutions that enhance operational efficiency, customer experience, and information security.During the panel discussion, QNB showcased its forward-looking roadmap in digital transformation and governance of artificial intelligence, as well as its role in fostering innovation across the financial sector. Red Hat Summit Connect, being its first time in Qatar, brings together technology leaders, decision-makers, and open-source experts to explore the next frontier of IT innovation. The event serves as a platform for accelerating digital transformation through collaboration, education, and real-world application.  QNB’s participation in the event, which is considered one of Red Hat leading strategic showcases, strengthened with the award reinforces its significant contribution and its continuous efforts to strengthen its digital capabilities, support Qatar’s innovation ecosystem, and set new benchmarks for sustainable and secure technology adoption. 

QNB Group, the largest financial institution in the Middle East and Africa, has been honoured with the Innovation Award at the Red Hat Summit 2025, in recognition of the bank’s leadership in digital transformation, hybrid-cloud adoption, and its strategic advancements in AI-driven financial services.The award was accepted by IT experts from QNB, reflecting the Bank’s commitment to modernising its technology landscape and pioneering new solutions that enhance operational efficiency, customer experience, and information security.During the panel discussion, QNB showcased its forward-looking roadmap in digital transformation and governance of artificial intelligence, as well as its role in fostering innovation across the financial sector.Red Hat Summit Connect, being its first time in Qatar, brings together technology leaders, decision-makers, and open-source experts to explore the next frontier of IT innovation.The event serves as a platform for accelerating digital transformation through collaboration, education, and real-world application.QNB’s participation in the event, which is considered one of Red Hat leading strategic showcases, strengthened with the award reinforces its significant contribution and its continuous efforts to strengthen its digital capabilities, support Qatar’s innovation ecosystem, and set new benchmarks for sustainable and secure technology adoption.

QNB Group announced the “successful” completion of Qatar’s inaugural Digitally Native bond issuance, a $500mn three-year floating interest rate digital bond.Using HSBC Orion, the market-leading digital assets platform, the issuance marks the acceleration of digital asset adoption in the Middle East.This “landmark” transaction represents the largest ever Digitally Native bond issuance issued from the Middle East and Africa region by a financial institution.This step comes as part of QNB’s strategy to tap new sources of stable funding from new markets with digitally innovative funding sources.The successful completion of the transaction confirms the trust of international investors in QNB the Group’s strategy, robust financial performance, and stable outlook.HSBC acted as a sole bookrunner on the transaction, a further step in its ambition to bring end-to-end blockchain-based solutions to its global client base.The bond is powered by HSBC Orion, which is operated by the Central Money markets Unit (CMU) in Hong Kong, and structured with support from leading international law firms, reflecting the high standard of governance.HSBC Orion is the number 1 platform globally for digital bond volume in 2025 to date and the only to have successfully supported digital bonds for issuers in the region, in addition to the world’s largest digital bond issued in Hong Kong earlier this month.This strategic collaboration, bringing HSBC’s global experience with QNB’s local expertise, lays the groundwork for digital assets to become a regular feature of Qatar’s financial landscape, in line with Qatar National Vision 2030. It also showcases the potential of distributed ledger technology to enhance liquidity in the bond market.The bonds were issued under QNB’s EMTN programme and will be listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, which will also handle the permission to deal in DN Notes by way of debt issues to professional investors.Global investors can access the digital bond through accounts held with CMU, Euroclear and Clearstream, onboarding onto HSBC Orion as direct participant, or via their existing custodian who can participate through one of the above options.Noor al-Naimi, Senior Executive Vice-President, QNB Group Treasury and Financial Institutions, said: “This inaugural Digitally Native bond issuance transaction is part of our funding diversification strategy and broadens the range of funding sources available to QNB. QNB Group will continue to play a pioneering role in adoption of transformative technologies.”Abdul Hakeem Mostafawi, Chief Executive Officer, HSBC in Qatar, said: “QNB’s role as the first-mover lays the groundwork for digital assets to become a regular feature of Qatar’s financial landscape and the wider region.“This transaction signifies the momentum behind digital assets and the pivotal role that HSBC is playing both within the region and globally to enable the transformation of capital markets that are smarter, more transparent and more connected.”

The shift from “quantity” to “quality” and from “exporting simple consumption goods” to “exporting production systems” signals that China was successful in re-positioning itself at the high end of global supply chains, according to QNB. Over the coming months, the discussions for a new 5-year plan and industrial policy cycle will gain momentum with a focus on key sectors emphasising AI and semiconductors.As China closes both its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) and the decade since the launch of its flagship Made in China 2025 industrial strategy, the moment invites a sober look at what has been achieved, QNB said in an economic commentary.Some 10 years after Beijing first announced its ambition to move from “factory of the world” to “world leader in advanced manufacturing,” both the plan and the strategy are reaching maturity together. The 14th Five-Year Plan and Made in China 2025 were designed to improve the country’s economic KPIs into what policymakers now call “new quality productive forces,” a phrase that emphasises the pivot from quantity to quality, from input-driven expansion to technology-driven efficiency.Such change was focused on ten priority sectors where technological leadership would anchor future competitiveness, including robotics, aerospace, maritime engineering, advanced railway transportation equipment, new-generation IT, electric vehicles (EVs), advanced materials, biomedicine, energy equipment, and agricultural equipment’s.The evidence suggests that the strategy is bearing fruit. According to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Critical Technology Tracker, China’s performance in strategic technological fields has shifted dramatically over time, QNB noted.While in 2007 China led in only three out of 64 critical technologies, the figure has jumped to 57 out of 64 in 2023, outpacing other advanced economies in the race to lead the frontier of research and development for strategic application in key fields.Such impressive performance can be clearly observed in key segments, such as robotics, EVs, and green energy, it said. Robotics is perhaps the clearest illustration of Chinese technological leadership. According to the International Federation of Robotics, more than 295,000 industrial robots were installed in 2024, accounting for over half of global deployments.Those are strictly defined robots as “a programmed actuated mechanism with a degree of autonomy to perform locomotion, manipulation or positioning,” i.e., it needs to follow instructions from a control system, have physical hardware to move or apply forces, and perform physical tasks with defined levels of independence from continuous human control.The installed base now exceeds 2mn units, by far the largest worldwide. Even in terms of robot density, China leads with 470 robots per 10,000 manufacturing employees, having recently surpassed other industrial powerhouses such as Germany, Japan, and the US.This wave of automation marks the transformation of China’s industrial landscape from labour-intensive assembly to smart, data-driven production. This positions China as one of the leading countries in the world for automation after South Korea and Singapore.In solar, China installed more photovoltaic capacity in 2024 than the rest of the world combined, and its wind-power installations are equivalent to the total cumulative capacity of the United States and the European Union.These figures underline that China’s decarbonisation is not a by-product of slower growth but a deliberate industrial project: producing more energy, of cleaner origin, with globally unmatched efficiency and scale. What makes this transformation distinctive is the degree to which manufacturing, energy, and technology are converging. The push for advanced manufacturing feeds into the green transition through new materials, batteries, and grid technology, while the expansion of clean power lowers the cost base for further industrial upgrading.The synergies are now visible in export data, where the “new three” industries (EVs, lithium batteries, and solar modules) have collectively become one of China’s largest export categories, rivalling traditional electronics, QNB said.

QNB has become the first Qatari bank to launch Mastercard virtual card numbers (VCN) for corporate clients to enable companies to create single-use or multi-use virtual cards with predefined limits, specific usage timeframes, and merchant category controls, showcasing its commitment to providing its clients with the highest levels of banking experience. A signing ceremony was recently held between senior executives from QNB and Mastercard to commemorate the launch and formalise the new partnership between the two organisations. The landmark launch reinforces QNB’s leadership in the commercial payments space and highlights its strategic role in redefining how businesses in Qatar manage, control, and optimise their financial operations. The agreement aims to bring further advancements and greater benefits to QNB’s corporate cardholders through innovative payment solutions and enhanced digital capabilities, marking a significant milestone in its mission to modernise corporate payments and strengthen the country’s transition toward a cashless, digitally enabled economy in line with the Economic Development pillar of Qatar National Vision 2030. **media[382835]** With Mastercard generating the virtual cards, the bank is introducing a new level of efficiency and transparency to business payments, replacing manual processes and paper-based instruments as QNB issues virtual card numbers instantly, offering convenience, security, and flexibility. Through this platform, QNB enables companies to create virtual cards with simple steps through the integration of Mastercard’s innovative VCN platform with corporate approval workflows, giving organisations real-time visibility and control over every transaction. By digitising payments that were traditionally executed via cheques and wire transfers, Mastercard is enhancing security, simplifying reconciliation, and supporting better working capital management through flexible settlement periods. Businesses benefit from up to 55 days of interest-free grace period offered by QNB, streamlined reconciliation, and the ability to automate recurring supplier and operational payments — all contributing to greater liquidity and operational agility. Businesses will also benefit from QNB’s ‘SmartData’ expense management tools, which provides a unified experience for virtual card generation, reporting, and analytics, with QNB issuing Mastercard-generated cards.

QNB expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to 'moderately' continue with its easing cycle, cutting the Fed funds rate twice more to 3.5%. Below trend labour and capacity utilisation justify continued policy rate cuts, while limited downside potential places the adequate floor to rates around neutral levels, QNB said in an economic commentary. The Fed is once again at the forefront of the global macro agenda, after a period dominated by US-driven trade negotiations, fiscal debates and geopolitical conflict. Economic policy uncertainty has been reduced significantly on the back of a plethora of trade deals and a less contentious fiscal framework from the Trump administration. Importantly, inflation uncertainty has also been reduced as prices are proving to be less responsive to higher tariffs than previously expected. However, despite the significant stabilisation of the overall policy environment, monetary policy is becoming a more contested space. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed decided for another 25 basis points (bps) rate cut late last month, continuing with the easing cycle that started in September 2024 and resumed this September after eight months of pause, there is clearly significant dissent amongst FOMC Board members. In fact, during the last FOMC meeting, Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favour of a larger 50 bps cut, whereas Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid dissented in favour of no reductions at all. This “two-sided” dissent is a very rare occurrence in a historically more consensus-prone Fed. Moreover, there seems to also be widening differences in conviction about the timing and even direction of Fed fund rates between markets and policymakers going forward. Investors are currently expecting the Fed to continue with the rate cutting cycle that started in September 2024, with one more 25 bps cut “priced in” for December 2025 and three further rate cuts throughout 2026, for a cyclical terminal rate of around 3%. But Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, is less certain about this outcome, stating recently that further policy rate cuts are far from a foregone conclusion. In QNB’s view, there is space for two more 25 bps rate cuts, likely in December and again in early 2026. Hence, it believes that both the “hawkish” central bankers that want to pause again the monetary easing cycle and their “dovish” colleagues that advocate for much deeper rate cuts are likely too aggressive in their positions. Similarly, prevailing market expectations are likely too optimistic in their assessment about four further cuts to a 2026 end-year rate of 3%. Two main points sustain our view **media[382145]** First, we believe that there is still more room for a couple more rate cuts because current policy rates are still too tight vis-à-vis existing macro conditions in the US. At 4%, policy rates are restrictive or around 50 bps above what we consider to be the neutral rate, i.e., the level at which rates are neither supportive nor restrictive for activity. US capacity utilisation, measured in terms of the state of the labour market as well as the level of industrial activity, indicates that the US economy is set to run below potential. In H2-2025, for the first time in more than four years, the “jobs gap” is suggesting that the labour market is loose rather than tight, i.e., the sum of job openings and employment is lower than the total civilian labour force. This is because new job openings have been reduced significantly from more than 12mn new posts per month in early 2022 to around seven million in recent months. Importantly, coincident labour data from private sources are indicating an accelerating trend of US layoffs. US based employers cut more than 150 thousand jobs in October, marking the biggest reduction for the month in more than two decades, as companies are seeking to reduce costs, mitigate tariff-related margin pressures and increase efficiency with AI adoption. Moreover, industrial activity is running below its long-term trend. These conditions, that together inform QNB’s US capacity utilisation index, point to below potential growth and support additional rate cuts to neutral levels over the coming quarters, i.e., policy rates that are at the estimated neutral threshold of around 3.5%. Second, while there is room for additional policy easing, the further deeper cuts supported by the “dovish” members of the Fed and expected by markets seem to be too aggressive. The US economy adjusted significantly and slowed down from close to 3% growth in both 2023 and 2024 to around 2% growth this year. But there is little evidence of an incoming sharper downturn or deterioration, not to mention any potential recession. Investments have been strong on the back of record capex from tech companies seeking to lead the AI wave, whereas consumption has been slowing only gradually as US households still benefit from their strongest net financial position in decades. In other words, in the absence of new negative shocks, further downside pressure for US growth is limited. Hence, there appear to be no justification to reduce the policy rate further from neutral down to accommodative levels, QNB said.