tag

The shift from “quantity” to “quality” and from “exporting simple consumption goods” to “exporting production systems” signals that China was successful in re-positioning itself at the high end of global supply chains, according to QNB. Over the coming months, the discussions for a new 5-year plan and industrial policy cycle will gain momentum with a focus on key sectors emphasising AI and semiconductors.As China closes both its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) and the decade since the launch of its flagship Made in China 2025 industrial strategy, the moment invites a sober look at what has been achieved, QNB said in an economic commentary.Some 10 years after Beijing first announced its ambition to move from “factory of the world” to “world leader in advanced manufacturing,” both the plan and the strategy are reaching maturity together. The 14th Five-Year Plan and Made in China 2025 were designed to improve the country’s economic KPIs into what policymakers now call “new quality productive forces,” a phrase that emphasises the pivot from quantity to quality, from input-driven expansion to technology-driven efficiency.Such change was focused on ten priority sectors where technological leadership would anchor future competitiveness, including robotics, aerospace, maritime engineering, advanced railway transportation equipment, new-generation IT, electric vehicles (EVs), advanced materials, biomedicine, energy equipment, and agricultural equipment’s.The evidence suggests that the strategy is bearing fruit. According to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Critical Technology Tracker, China’s performance in strategic technological fields has shifted dramatically over time, QNB noted.While in 2007 China led in only three out of 64 critical technologies, the figure has jumped to 57 out of 64 in 2023, outpacing other advanced economies in the race to lead the frontier of research and development for strategic application in key fields.Such impressive performance can be clearly observed in key segments, such as robotics, EVs, and green energy, it said. Robotics is perhaps the clearest illustration of Chinese technological leadership. According to the International Federation of Robotics, more than 295,000 industrial robots were installed in 2024, accounting for over half of global deployments.Those are strictly defined robots as “a programmed actuated mechanism with a degree of autonomy to perform locomotion, manipulation or positioning,” i.e., it needs to follow instructions from a control system, have physical hardware to move or apply forces, and perform physical tasks with defined levels of independence from continuous human control.The installed base now exceeds 2mn units, by far the largest worldwide. Even in terms of robot density, China leads with 470 robots per 10,000 manufacturing employees, having recently surpassed other industrial powerhouses such as Germany, Japan, and the US.This wave of automation marks the transformation of China’s industrial landscape from labour-intensive assembly to smart, data-driven production. This positions China as one of the leading countries in the world for automation after South Korea and Singapore.In solar, China installed more photovoltaic capacity in 2024 than the rest of the world combined, and its wind-power installations are equivalent to the total cumulative capacity of the United States and the European Union.These figures underline that China’s decarbonisation is not a by-product of slower growth but a deliberate industrial project: producing more energy, of cleaner origin, with globally unmatched efficiency and scale. What makes this transformation distinctive is the degree to which manufacturing, energy, and technology are converging. The push for advanced manufacturing feeds into the green transition through new materials, batteries, and grid technology, while the expansion of clean power lowers the cost base for further industrial upgrading.The synergies are now visible in export data, where the “new three” industries (EVs, lithium batteries, and solar modules) have collectively become one of China’s largest export categories, rivalling traditional electronics, QNB said.

QNB has become the first Qatari bank to launch Mastercard virtual card numbers (VCN) for corporate clients to enable companies to create single-use or multi-use virtual cards with predefined limits, specific usage timeframes, and merchant category controls, showcasing its commitment to providing its clients with the highest levels of banking experience. A signing ceremony was recently held between senior executives from QNB and Mastercard to commemorate the launch and formalise the new partnership between the two organisations. The landmark launch reinforces QNB’s leadership in the commercial payments space and highlights its strategic role in redefining how businesses in Qatar manage, control, and optimise their financial operations. The agreement aims to bring further advancements and greater benefits to QNB’s corporate cardholders through innovative payment solutions and enhanced digital capabilities, marking a significant milestone in its mission to modernise corporate payments and strengthen the country’s transition toward a cashless, digitally enabled economy in line with the Economic Development pillar of Qatar National Vision 2030. **media[382835]** With Mastercard generating the virtual cards, the bank is introducing a new level of efficiency and transparency to business payments, replacing manual processes and paper-based instruments as QNB issues virtual card numbers instantly, offering convenience, security, and flexibility. Through this platform, QNB enables companies to create virtual cards with simple steps through the integration of Mastercard’s innovative VCN platform with corporate approval workflows, giving organisations real-time visibility and control over every transaction. By digitising payments that were traditionally executed via cheques and wire transfers, Mastercard is enhancing security, simplifying reconciliation, and supporting better working capital management through flexible settlement periods. Businesses benefit from up to 55 days of interest-free grace period offered by QNB, streamlined reconciliation, and the ability to automate recurring supplier and operational payments — all contributing to greater liquidity and operational agility. Businesses will also benefit from QNB’s ‘SmartData’ expense management tools, which provides a unified experience for virtual card generation, reporting, and analytics, with QNB issuing Mastercard-generated cards.

QNB expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to 'moderately' continue with its easing cycle, cutting the Fed funds rate twice more to 3.5%. Below trend labour and capacity utilisation justify continued policy rate cuts, while limited downside potential places the adequate floor to rates around neutral levels, QNB said in an economic commentary. The Fed is once again at the forefront of the global macro agenda, after a period dominated by US-driven trade negotiations, fiscal debates and geopolitical conflict. Economic policy uncertainty has been reduced significantly on the back of a plethora of trade deals and a less contentious fiscal framework from the Trump administration. Importantly, inflation uncertainty has also been reduced as prices are proving to be less responsive to higher tariffs than previously expected. However, despite the significant stabilisation of the overall policy environment, monetary policy is becoming a more contested space. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed decided for another 25 basis points (bps) rate cut late last month, continuing with the easing cycle that started in September 2024 and resumed this September after eight months of pause, there is clearly significant dissent amongst FOMC Board members. In fact, during the last FOMC meeting, Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favour of a larger 50 bps cut, whereas Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid dissented in favour of no reductions at all. This “two-sided” dissent is a very rare occurrence in a historically more consensus-prone Fed. Moreover, there seems to also be widening differences in conviction about the timing and even direction of Fed fund rates between markets and policymakers going forward. Investors are currently expecting the Fed to continue with the rate cutting cycle that started in September 2024, with one more 25 bps cut “priced in” for December 2025 and three further rate cuts throughout 2026, for a cyclical terminal rate of around 3%. But Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, is less certain about this outcome, stating recently that further policy rate cuts are far from a foregone conclusion. In QNB’s view, there is space for two more 25 bps rate cuts, likely in December and again in early 2026. Hence, it believes that both the “hawkish” central bankers that want to pause again the monetary easing cycle and their “dovish” colleagues that advocate for much deeper rate cuts are likely too aggressive in their positions. Similarly, prevailing market expectations are likely too optimistic in their assessment about four further cuts to a 2026 end-year rate of 3%. Two main points sustain our view **media[382145]** First, we believe that there is still more room for a couple more rate cuts because current policy rates are still too tight vis-à-vis existing macro conditions in the US. At 4%, policy rates are restrictive or around 50 bps above what we consider to be the neutral rate, i.e., the level at which rates are neither supportive nor restrictive for activity. US capacity utilisation, measured in terms of the state of the labour market as well as the level of industrial activity, indicates that the US economy is set to run below potential. In H2-2025, for the first time in more than four years, the “jobs gap” is suggesting that the labour market is loose rather than tight, i.e., the sum of job openings and employment is lower than the total civilian labour force. This is because new job openings have been reduced significantly from more than 12mn new posts per month in early 2022 to around seven million in recent months. Importantly, coincident labour data from private sources are indicating an accelerating trend of US layoffs. US based employers cut more than 150 thousand jobs in October, marking the biggest reduction for the month in more than two decades, as companies are seeking to reduce costs, mitigate tariff-related margin pressures and increase efficiency with AI adoption. Moreover, industrial activity is running below its long-term trend. These conditions, that together inform QNB’s US capacity utilisation index, point to below potential growth and support additional rate cuts to neutral levels over the coming quarters, i.e., policy rates that are at the estimated neutral threshold of around 3.5%. Second, while there is room for additional policy easing, the further deeper cuts supported by the “dovish” members of the Fed and expected by markets seem to be too aggressive. The US economy adjusted significantly and slowed down from close to 3% growth in both 2023 and 2024 to around 2% growth this year. But there is little evidence of an incoming sharper downturn or deterioration, not to mention any potential recession. Investments have been strong on the back of record capex from tech companies seeking to lead the AI wave, whereas consumption has been slowing only gradually as US households still benefit from their strongest net financial position in decades. In other words, in the absence of new negative shocks, further downside pressure for US growth is limited. Hence, there appear to be no justification to reduce the policy rate further from neutral down to accommodative levels, QNB said.

QNB said in its weekly commentary that it expects the US Federal Reserve to continue its monetary easing cycle at a moderate pace by cutting the federal funds rate two more times to 3.5 percent. The bank said that declining employment levels and a drop in capacity utilization below trend justify continued reductions in key interest rates, while the limited likelihood of a sharp slowdown in growth creates an appropriate lower bound for interest rates near their neutral levels. QNB noted that the Federal Reserve has returned to the forefront of the global macroeconomic scene after a period dominated by US-led trade negotiations and debates over fiscal policies. It explained that uncertainty surrounding economic policies has eased significantly thanks to the conclusion of several trade agreements and the adoption by President Donald Trump's administration of a less contentious fiscal framework. Uncertainty related to inflation has also receded, after it became clear that the impact of higher tariffs on prices was smaller than expected. The report stated that monetary policy has become a point of contention. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by an additional 25 basis points late last month, continuing the easing cycle that began in September 2024 and resumed this year after an eight-month pause. However, a clear division has emerged among committee members. The report observed a widening gap between market expectations and policymakers' positions regarding the future direction of interest rates. While markets expect the easing cycle to continue, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that additional rate cuts remain uncertain. The bank argued that under these expectations, there is room for two more 25-basis-point rate cuts, likely with the first in December and the second in early 2026. The report based this outlook on two main points. The first is that there remains sufficient room for two additional rate cuts because current interest rates are still excessively tight relative to existing macroeconomic conditions in the United States. It pointed out that the current interest rate of 4 percent remains restrictive and stands roughly 50 basis points above the neutral level, while data on capacity utilization, the labor market, and industrial activity show that the U.S. economy is operating below its potential. The second point, according to the report, is that there is room for further monetary easing. It noted, however, that the deeper rate cuts supported by more dovish Federal Reserve members, and anticipated by markets, appear overly aggressive. In conclusion, QNB's weekly report emphasized that the US economy has largely adjusted, slowing from growth rates near 3 percent in 2023 and 2024 to about 2 percent this year, without signs of a sharp downturn or possible recession. It highlighted the strength of investment driven by record capital spending from technology companies seeking to lead the artificial-intelligence wave, while consumption continues its gradual slowdown and US households benefit from their strongest net financial position in decades.

QNB's Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) team organised a creative programme for children titled ‘QNB Junior Entrepreneur’ in line with its initiatives to prepare a generation of new leaders capable of achieving a knowledge-based economy in implementation of the Qatar National Vision 2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals.It also reflects the bank’s CSR strategy aimed at promoting financial literacy within its Education and Youth pillar.The two-week initiative includes a packed program of activities, allowing young participants to unleash their entrepreneurship skills in a fun and stimulating environment, helping them turn their ideas into reality.Participants presented their project ideas in the form of simplified projects and products, along with a suggested marketing plan. On the conclusion of the activity, the bank’s CSR team awarded a ‘QNB Junior Entrepreneur’ certificate to all participants in recognition of their valuable contribution.The initiative supported younger generations to acquire skills of productivity, recycling, entrepreneurship, innovation, and creativity and become positive change agents in our communities.QNB Group is one of the leading financial institutions in the Middle East and Africa and one of the most valuable banking brands in the region.It operates in some 28 countries across Asia, Europe and Africa, providing tailored banking products and services, supported by a workforce of over 31,000 professionals leading banking excellence worldwide.

Argentine President Javier Milei faces the challenge of laying foundations for his country’s long-term growth, according to QNB. Argentine growth is expected to reach around 3.5% in 2026 and 2027 which, although an improvement relative to recent years, it is not yet an exceptional performance for an emerging economy. Milei recently made global headlines with an unexpected and decisive mid-term electoral victory, consolidating the country’s most disruptive political movement in decades. Coming onto the national stage just a few years ago as a libertarian outsider, famously wielding a chainsaw to symbolise his intent to slash public spending, his campaigns have centred on austerity, deregulation, and a rollback of state intervention in the economy. This marks a significant shift in a nation long dominated by interventionist and left-leaning Peronism. Combined with allies from the “Pro” party, his coalition may be able to gather sufficient additional support for deeper market-oriented reforms. Since taking office in December 2023, Milei gradually began to reverse the economic trends inherited from his predecessor, with the country on the edge of hyperinflation, as prices rocketed by nearly 300% a year. By end-2025, inflation has fallen to around 30%, still painfully high but a significant turnaround by stabilisation standards. Furthermore, his government delivered the country’s first budget surplus in more than a decade, a symbol of restored fiscal discipline that few thought possible without major political resistance. The fiscal adjustment has not been painless. After a sharp initial rebound from two years of recession in 2024, growth has stalled. Stagnant economic performance raised doubts about voter support before the recent mid-term elections. The political strain deepened when the Peronists secured victory in Buenos Aires in local elections in September this year, unsettling markets, with the currency depreciating and spreads on sovereign bonds rising sharply. **media[379002]** Amid the turmoil, Milei turned to his ally US President Donald Trump, and a $20bn currency-swap package helped stabilise the peso and calm capital outflows. Going forward, Javier Milei faces the decisive test of his presidency of turning early stabilisation into durable growth. The recent elections have strengthened his position, giving his coalition enough presence in Congress to pursue long-delayed structural reforms and privatisations. Whether Argentina can pivot from emergency adjustment to a phase of sustained economic growth remains an open question. In this article, we discuss what in our view will be the main challenges for President Milei’s administration going forward. First, although the administration is placing reforms at the top of its agenda, it stands to face significant resistance from vested interests. At the top of the list are two major overhauls: a reform aiming at making labour markets more dynamic, and a broad tax reform to improve an overly complex revenue system. With stricter employment-protection legislation than regional peers, including high costs of hiring and onerous dismissal rules, a chronically large shadow economy of close to 50% of total employment has become engrained, dragging productivity. The tax system features 155 levies, with just 10 of them accounting for 94% of revenues, reflecting an inefficient and burdensome obstacle for companies. As a result, the economy has stalled in the last 15 years, with real GDP growing at an average of less than 1% per year. Reform proposals are certain to face resistance from the Peronist opposition and labour unions, but their approval would represent a decisive step to break a stagnant economic growth trend. Second, Milei will need to regain confidence to attract investments consistent with strong growth and modernisation of the country. Over the last 20 years, aggregate investment has amounted to an average of close to 17.5% of GDP, which is far below the 25-30% associated with robust performance of high-growth emerging economies. To reach this target, the country would have to close a gap of more than $60bn per year in investments relative to recent levels. The government developed its flagship investment framework, known as “RIGI” (acronym in Spanish for Regime of Incentives for Large Investments), offering long-term tax, customs and foreign exchange incentives for up to 30 years, applying to large-scale projects of more than $200mn. Until recently, committed investments through this initiative have reached only a fraction of the investment gap, mainly in infrastructure, mining and oil and gas, reflecting the need for a more stable environment to attract larger investments. Third, the administration faces the test of securing macroeconomic stability and bringing inflation fully under control. Although the aggressive “chainsaw” phase may have passed, maintaining fiscal discipline and resisting political pressure for spending will be crucial to sustain recent gains, regain monetary stability and prevent a relapse into chronic deficits. The peso has depreciated over 50% so far this year, reflecting feeble confidence in the currency. Argentina’s sovereign bonds continue to trade at spreads of over six percentage points above US Treasuries, underscoring the extraordinary risk premium demanded by investors. “Restoring macroeconomic stability will require consistent policies to rebuild credibility,” QNB added.

Qatar National Bank (QNB) expects Argentina's economy to face multiple challenges in the coming period, despite projected growth rates of 3.5 percent in both 2026 and 2027.In its Weekly Economic Commentary, QNB said, "Argentine President Javier Milei recently made global headlines with an unexpected and decisive mid-term electoral victory, consolidating the country's most disruptive political movement in decades. Coming onto the national stage just a few years ago as a libertarian outsider, famously wielding a chainsaw to symbolize his intent to slash public spending, his campaigns have centered on austerity, deregulation, and a rollback of state intervention in the economy. This marks a significant shift in a nation long dominated by interventionist and left-leaning Peronism. Combined with allies from the "Pro" party, his coalition may be able to gather sufficient additional support for deeper market-oriented reforms."Since taking office in December 2023, Milei gradually began to reverse the economic trends inherited from his predecessor, with the country on the edge of hyperinflation, as prices rocketed by nearly 300 percent a year. By end-2025, inflation has fallen to around 30 percent, still painfully high but a significant turnaround by stabilization standards. Furthermore, his government delivered the country's first budget surplus in more than a decade, a symbol of restored fiscal discipline that few thought possible without major political resistance.""The fiscal adjustment has not been painless. After a sharp initial rebound from two years of recession in 2024, growth has stalled. Stagnant economic performance raised doubts about voter support before the recent mid-term elections. The political strain deepened when the Peronists secured victory in Buenos Aires in local elections in September this year, unsettling markets, with the currency depreciating and spreads on sovereign bonds rising sharply. Amid the turmoil, Milei turned to his ally US President Donald Trump, and a USD 20 Bn currency-swap package helped stabilize the peso and calm capital outflows.""Going forward, Javier Milei faces the decisive test of his presidency of turning early stabilization into durable growth. The recent elections have strengthened his position, giving his coalition enough presence in Congress to pursue long-delayed structural reforms and privatizations. Whether Argentina can pivot from emergency adjustment to a phase of sustained economic growth remains an open question. In this article, we discuss what in our view will be the main challenges for President Milei's administration going forward."The bank explained, "First, although the administration is placing reforms at the top of its agenda, it stands to face significant resistance from vested interests. At the top of the list are two major overhauls: a reform aiming at making labour markets more dynamic, and a broad tax reform to improve an overly complex revenue system. With stricter employment-protection legislation than regional peers, including high costs of hiring and onerous dismissal rules, a chronically large shadow economy of close to 50 percent of total employment has become engrained, dragging productivity. The tax system features 155 levies, with just 10 of them accounting for 94 percent of revenues, reflecting an inefficient and burdensome obstacle for companies. As a result, the economy has stalled in the last 15 years, with real GDP growing at an average of less than 1 percent per year. Reform proposals are certain to face resistance from the Peronist opposition and labour unions, but their approval would represent a decisive step to break a stagnant economic growth trend.""Second, Milei will need to regain confidence to attract investments consistent with strong growth and modernization of the country. Over the last 20 years, aggregate investment has amounted to an average of close to 17.5 percent of GDP, which is far below the 25-30 percent associated with robust performance of high-growth emerging economies. To reach this target, the country would have to close a gap of more than USD 60 Bn per year in investments relative to recent levels. The government developed its flagship investment framework, known as "RIGI" (acronym in Spanish for Regime of Incentives for Large Investments), offering long-term tax, customs and foreign exchange incentives for up to 30 years, applying to large-scale projects of more than USD 200 Mn. Until recently, committed investments through this initiative have reached only a fraction of the investment gap, mainly in infrastructure, mining and oil and gas, reflecting the need for a more stable environment to attract larger investments.""Third, the administration faces the test of securing macroeconomic stability and bringing inflation fully under control. Although the aggressive "chainsaw" phase may have passed, maintaining fiscal discipline and resisting political pressure for spending will be crucial to sustain recent gains, regain monetary stability and prevent a relapse into chronic deficits. The peso has depreciated over 50 percent so far this year, reflecting feeble confidence in the currency. Argentina's sovereign bonds continue to trade at spreads of over 6 percentage points above US Treasuries, underscoring the extraordinary risk premium demanded by investors. Restoring macroeconomic stability will require consistent policies to rebuild credibility."QNB concluded, "All in all, President Milei faces significant challenges. Growth is expected to reach around 3.5 percent in 2026 and 2027 which, although an improvement relative to recent years, it is not yet an exceptional performance for an emerging economy. More importantly, President Javier Milei faces the challenge of laying the foundations for long-term growth."

QNB Group and the Qatar Chamber have signed a sponsorship agreement for the Seventh Gulf Businesswomen Forum, under which QNB will sponsor the event as a Strategic Partner.The agreement was signed by Qatar Chamber acting general manager Ali Bu Sherbak al-Mansouri and QNB Group executive vice-president of SME Banking Ismail Mohamed al-Emadi, in the presence of Federation of GCC Chambers (FGCCC) secretary-general Saleh bin Hamad al-Sharqi and Qatar Chamber board member Ibtihaj al-Ahmadani, who is also chairperson of the Qatari Businesswomen Forum.Organised by the FGCCC, in co-operation with the Qatar Chamber and with the support of the General Secretariat of the Gulf Co-operation Council, the forum will be held under the slogan ‘Entrepreneurship and Investment Sustainability’ on November 12-13 at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Msheireb, Doha.The forum aims to strengthen entrepreneurship and promote sustainable investment among businesswomen in GCC countries. It will highlight mechanisms for supporting women’s participation in sustainable investment and explore ways to transition from traditional business models to more innovative, digital, and knowledge-driven approaches, in line with the GCC’s collective vision for a knowledge-based economy.Al-Mansouri said, “We highly value QNB Group’ s sponsorship of the forum, which reflects the bank’s steadfast commitment to supporting Qatari and Gulf women, enhancing their participation in driving economic transformation, and representing the private sector in regional and international arenas.”He emphasised that the partnership with QNB represents a significant contribution to the success of the forum, reinforcing its position as a leading Gulf platform for dialogue and networking among businesswomen, as well as a venue for exchanging expertise, exploring investment opportunities, and fostering co-operation on future projects.QNB Group’s sponsorship represents a strategic platform for the economic empowerment of female business owners in GCC countries, reflecting its commitment to supporting their role in accelerating the transition towards a knowledge economy in the region.The sponsorship also supports the ongoing partnership with Qatar Chamber, reflecting joint efforts to promote women’s business entrepreneurship to more innovative and digital-based approaches, in line with Qatar National Vision 2030 and the sustainable development strategies of GCC countries.

QNB Group has announced a strategic partnership with TransferMate, the world’s leading provider of embedded B2B payments infrastructure as a service, to expand global receivables and local account solutions for QNB corporate customers worldwide. The partnership enables QNB, which is the largest financial institution in the Middle East and Africa, to integrate TransferMate’s award-winning technology directly into its platform, providing corporate clients with access to a broader network of international multicurrency collections and local accounts capabilities. Through this collaboration, the bank’s customers will now be able to invoice and receive cross-border payments in multiple currencies, benefiting from reduced transaction times and fees, improved cash flow management and enhanced visibility and reconciliation. QNB Group constantly strives to provide its customers with new and innovative solutions to support their business needs. This platform enables them to receive international payments in multiple currencies seamlessly, which is considered is a game-changer for its clients. This marks TransferMate’s first banking partnership in the Middle East, capitalising on the strategic alliances the fintech has established with major financial institutions and global notable brands. The partnership marks a major milestone in QNB’s ongoing digital transformation journey and reinforces its position as a leader in delivering future-ready banking services.

Qatar National Bank (QNB) expects further upside for gold over the medium and long term, despite the sharp rally in recent months and the significant risks of short-term corrections.In its Weekly Economic Commentary, QNB stated that consensus among leading research houses suggests gold prices are likely to remain well supported at around USD 4,000 per troy ounce, with an estimated upside of 10–15% over the next twelve months.Gold has once again proven its value in providing robust returns during periods of global uncertainty. In fact, it has been one of the standout global asset classes in recent years, consistently demonstrating remarkable resilience. Since the post-pandemic normalization in 2022, gold prices have gained around 105%, significantly outperforming most global benchmarks, including equities, bonds, and commodities.This broad-based outperformance underscores gold’s unique position as both a store of value and a macro hedge in an era defined by three converging structural forces: strong global growth in money supply, geopolitical fragmentation, and central bank reserve diversification.Since the onset of the pandemic, an unprecedented expansion of fiscal and monetary policy has undermined confidence in the stability of currencies in major advanced economies. At the same time, a series of geopolitical shocks — from the U.S.-China strategic rivalry to conflicts in Eastern Europe — have fueled demand for safe and jurisdictionally neutral assets. Furthermore, the steady accumulation of gold by emerging market central banks, often as a deliberate strategy to reduce dependency on established reserve currencies, has added a new layer of sustained, price-insensitive demand.Gold appears “fairly” priced, if not undervalued, against USD money supply (M2). Since the Bretton Woods agreements of 1944, which established the post-Second World War economic order, the USD long-term price of gold has tended to move directionally in line with M2 growth. Much of the recent upward movement in gold prices could therefore be seen as a catch-up following a long period of undervaluation since 2010, combined with continued strong USD issuance. Current prices would still need to rise by approximately 34% to reach QNB’s modeled fair value. Importantly, M2 has been accelerating in recent years, growing at a compound annual rate of 7.5%. In other words, there are no clear signs of overvaluation, and one of the main drivers of prices — USD issuance — continues to expand rapidly.Positioning by both central banks and private investors in gold also suggests further potential for price appreciation. Geopolitical fragmentation continues to amplify gold’s appeal as a jurisdictionally neutral asset outside the reach of financial “weaponization.”According to the World Gold Council, following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, central banks’ additional demand for gold more than doubled — from around 450 tons per year to over 1,000 tons per year. Despite this increase in official demand, there remains considerable room for a longer-term accumulation trend. While large advanced economies tend to hold around 25% of their foreign exchange (FX) reserves in gold, major emerging-market central banks hold less than 12% of their FX reserves in the metal.

The price of gold in the Qatari market declined by 4.39 percent over the past week, reaching USD 3,931.97000 per ounce, according to data released by Qatar National Bank (QNB). QNB data showed that the price of gold decreased from USD 4,112.68700 recorded last Sunday.As for other precious metals, silver fell by 2.28 percent on a weekly basis to reach USD 47.52000 per ounce, down from USD 48.63250 at the start of the week. Platinum fell by 1.18 percent, reaching USD 1,594.60000 per ounce, compared to USD 1613.80040 at the beginning of the week.

Qatar National Bank (QNB) said that rare earths were key to the electronics and digital revolution and are becoming even more important as new industries and technologies emerge. In its weekly economic commentary, the QNB added that AI, semiconductors, defense and aerospace, as well as energy transition are becoming some of the most strategic sectors for the 21st century and should require massive growth in rare earth supply. This further strengthens China's dominant position in these supply chains and creates bottlenecks as well as vulnerabilities to the US and other competitors. US-China strategic competition is set to be one of the major drivers of the global economy in the years to come."In recent weeks, disputes over export controls of rare earth-related supply chains almost led to a major escalation of US-China trade conflicts," it said.Despite their name, rare earth elements are not particularly rare in the Earth's crust. The challenge lies in their extraction and refining, which are technologically complex, environmentally sensitive, and capital intensive.The group includes 17 elements such as neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, cerium, lanthanum, and yttrium, each with unique magnetic, optical, or catalytic properties that make them indispensable for modern industry. In addition, several related critical minerals, including gallium, germanium, indium, cobalt, and lithium, play similar roles across supply chains.Together, the importance of these materials can be seen most clearly in three of the most important, rapidly expanding sectors in the world. In the field of AI and semiconductors, rare earths are integral to the machinery and processes that make advanced chips possible. Cerium oxide is used to polish silicon wafers with nanometric precision, yttrium is a core component of plasma etching systems, and neodymium-based magnets power the high-efficiency cooling and motor systems used in AI data centers. Meanwhile, related elements such as gallium and germanium are used directly in high-performance chips and optical communications.In defense and aerospace, other rare earths are key inputs for jet engines, radar systems, and precision-guided weapons. Finally, in the energy transition, rare earths like neodymium and paraseodyum are essential for the powerful magnets that make EVs and wind turbines operate efficiently, while lanthanum and cerium play crucial roles in catalytic converters and energy storage technologies.The exponential growth in demand has transformed rare earths and critical minerals from industrial commodities into strategic assets. This growing importance has also created new geopolitical frictions, largely because production and processing capacity are highly concentrated in a few countries, particularly China.In a now-famous remark, former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping observed in 1987 that "The Middle East has oil; China has rare earths."China invested heavily in geological surveys, mining, and refining technology. By the early 2000s, China had become the dominant player in nearly every stage of the supply chain. Today, it accounts for around 65 percent of global mining output but over 85 percent of global refining and processing capacity. It also produces the majority of the permanent magnets and other high-value downstream products that depend on these materials. The country has also invested in expanding its footprint across the industry overseas, controlling significant assets, resources and reserves even outside China.In 2021, Beijing consolidated several state-owned companies into the China Rare Earth Group, strengthening its control and coordination over the sector. More recently, China has introduced export controls for national security reasons. Officials have emphasized that these controls are not outright bans but measures to ensure "responsible and secure" trade in dual-use goods. Nonetheless, these steps have reinforced perceptions that China views control over critical minerals as an important element of its broader geopolitical toolkit.In response, other countries have moved to diversify supply chains and reduce strategic dependence. The US has classified rare earths as critical to national security and is investing in domestic mining and processing through the Defense Production Act. However, these efforts will take years to bear fruit.