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The Qatar National Bank (QNB) predicted that the US economy could grow an above consensus 2% this year, on the back of strong consumption and private investment. In its Economic Commentary, the QNB said: "At the beginning of the year, the outlook on the US economy pointed to a gentle slowdown in growth. But an agenda of disruptive policy change by the new administration began to take place, and the climate of optimism and positive market sentiment started to shift. Economic indicators have stabilized and, more surprisingly, some gauges even point to an acceleration in activity. The "GDP Now" is an informative real-time, model-based "nowcast" produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which delivers a running estimate of real GDP growth in the current quarter for the US economy. It leverages a large set of high-frequency indicators from key economic sectors, and is therefore a representative summary of economic conditions. The latest available estimate points to an annualized growth rate of 3.8% in Q3-2025, a significant re-acceleration in activity relative to the 0.6% contraction in Q1-2025. In our view, the consensus growth forecast of 1.7% for this year is still lagging with respect to the latest information available and is therefore relatively pessimistic. In this article, we discuss the key components of GDP that are contributing to an acceleration of economic activity and support a relatively better outlook. First, household consumption is providing a strong boost to US real GDP growth, underpinned by the combination of resilient, even if deteriorating, employment, record household net wealth, and adequate access to credit. Consumption represents close to 70% of GDP and is therefore a major driver of economic growth. Retail sales adjusted for inflation, a useful gauge of consumption strength, accelerated to 1.7% year-over-year according to the latest prints, significantly above the average of -0.3% from last year. Even as job gains have slowed, the unemployment rate at 4.3% remains in the range of balanced employment, and earnings have steadily grown in real terms, outpacing inflation. This helps to keep aggregate household incomes strong. At the same time, a positive wealth effect from rising stock markets has bolstered spending capacity. Directly and indirectly held equity represents 35% of household net wealth, and 14% year-to-date growth in major indices has a significant impact on wealth, providing a positive effect that bolsters consumption sentiment. Borrowing channels also remain dynamic, with total household credit growing USD 352 Bn in the first two quarters and continuing to support expenditures this quarter. Together, these factors are contributing to maintaining household consumption as the key driver of real GDP momentum, accounting for 2/3 of real GDP growth expected for this quarter. Second, business investment is showing a strong performance, on the back of favourable financial conditions, fiscal incentives, and technology and AI-related capital expenditures. The latest data releases have shown accelerating growth in "core capital goods orders," a timely and representative signal of private-sector capital expenditures ("capex"). This measure tracks non-defence capital goods and excludes aircraft orders, which are typically sensitive to irregular procurements, and are therefore noisier. In recent months, this indicator has been growing at a rate of close to 4% in annual terms, a remarkable acceleration from the 0.9% average contraction last year. Several factors are contributing to investment growth. Demand for equipment and technology is surging, as firms continue to invest to support productivity and AI-related expansion. Policy incentives, such as the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and infrastructure programs are spurring construction of semiconductor facilities, factories, and clean energy projects. Additionally, healthy corporate profits and high expected returns on invested capital give businesses the means and the incentives to move forward with long-term projects. Taken together, these investment trends are contributing to an acceleration of economic growth. All in all, a reacceleration of the US economy is taking place on the back of strong momentum in consumption and private investment. In our view, the US economy could grow an above consensus 2% this year, on the back of strong consumption and private investment."

Qatar’s PMI climbing to 51.9 in August indicates accelerating non-oil private sector activity in the country, according to Oxford Economics.Last month, the PMI climbed to 51.9, which Oxford Economics noted is “fuelled by the fastest job creation and employment growth in the region”.Business activity in the GCC’s non-oil private sector continued to strengthen in August, Oxford Economics said.The UAE’s PMI rose to 53.3 from July’s four-year low of 52.9, driven by faster output growth. Saudi Arabia’s PMI edged up slightly to 56.4, supported by stronger client demand and infrastructure projects.“Overall, the GCC's non-oil private sector has seen sustained expansion this year, and we expect 4% growth in the region's non-oil output this year,” Oxford Economics said.In Saudi Arabia, credit growth slowed to 15.2% y/y in August but remained well above deposit growth of 8.4%. A sharper drop in mortgage lending suggests softer real estate activity, although consumer credit stayed strong.“We expect early interest rate cuts to support credit demand, likely pushing the average loan-to-deposit ratio to a new high. This could raise liquidity concerns in the coming months, especially if deposit growth continues to lag,” Oxford Economics noted.In a recent report the researcher noted Qatar's fiscal balance is estimated to scale up to 5.4% (of country’s GDP) in 2026 from 1.8% this year.A growing fiscal balance signals improved macroeconomic stability and a stronger ability to manage government debt in the country, an analyst noted.In an indication of the country’s level of international competitiveness, Qatar’s current account will improve further reaching 18.3% of the country’s GDP in 2026, from 17.5% this year.Qatar’s real GDP growth has been forecast at 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) this year, rising to 4.8% in 2026.Inflation has been forecast at 0.4% this year and 2.8% in 2026.In its last country report, Oxford Economics noted Qatar’s GDP growth “will more than double” in 2026-2027, with both the energy and non-energy sectors contributing positively this year and beyond, according to Oxford Economics.

His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani issued on Monday Amiri Decision No. 27 of 2025 establishing the Qatar Award for Localisation in the Private Sector.The decision states that the award aims to foster healthy competition among private sector entities in the area of job localisation, by recognising establishments that have met nationalisation targets and contributed to realising Qatar's national vision. Additionally, it seeks to honor distinguished citizens working in the private sector, along with exceptional talents, visionary leaders, and innovative pioneers.Under the decision, a Board of Trustees will be formed within the Ministry of Labor to oversee the award's management, determine its criteria, define its categories and levels, and set the necessary procedures.The law is effective starting from its date of issue and is to be published in the official gazette.