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Division at the Federal Reserve has intensified in recent weeks, with officials staking out disparate positions ahead of the central bank’s December policy meeting — all while Chair Jerome Powell stays silent. The drama was amped up on Friday when New York Fed President John Williams, sometimes seen as a proxy for the Fed chief, signalled his support for a rate cut after several other policymakers came out leaning against one.Powell himself hasn’t spoken publicly since the central bank’s last rate decision on October 29. But a tally of recent remarks suggests the other voting members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee are now nearly evenly split over what to do, all but ensuring some will vote against the December 10 decision regardless of the outcome.Once a rarity under Powell, dissents have increased this year. As officials wrestled with competing objectives of supporting a flagging labour market and keeping inflation in check, there hasn’t been a unanimous vote since June. The government shutdown, which delayed several key economic data releases, further complicated their ability to agree on which goal to prioritise. “By Powell not being out there right now, he’s letting every single member of the Open Market Committee have a voice and be listened to,” said Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and a former Fed economist. “He’s giving them space to have this disagreement, and that’s actually a good thing because this is tough and you should have these debates.” The recent back-and-forth has scrambled market bets on the next rate move, as traders attuned to the Fed’s consensus view are now counting votes among individual policymakers.Heading into the October policy meeting, investors saw a December rate cut as a sure thing. Odds plunged following the outburst of hawkish sentiment, briefly falling below 30%, according to pricing in federal funds futures. But they rebounded above 60% after Williams’ remarks on Friday. The central bank has long prided itself on making rate decisions by consensus, and it’s been a hallmark of Powell’s tenure at the helm, which began in 2018 and is set to conclude in May.The resulting low number of dissenting votes at the Fed’s eight annual policy meetings telegraphs confidence in their decisions, and some research suggests it ensures clear and effective communication of the committee’s intentions. But critics argue it also leads to “group-think” that suppresses potentially important arguments. “On the group-think thing, people who are accusing us of this, get ready. You might see the least group-think you’ve seen from the FOMC in a long time,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Monday.Waller dissented from the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady in July along with his colleague Michelle Bowman — the first time two Fed governors had voted against the chair in 32 years. At the following meeting in mid-September, Governor Stephen Miran — who joined the Fed board that month after being nominated by President Donald Trump — voted against his colleagues’ decision to lower rates by a quarter point, instead favouring a bigger rate reduction. At the Fed’s October 28-29 meeting, Miran dissented again for the same reason, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid dissented in the opposite direction.Schmid wanted to hold rates steady, arguing that further cuts could reignite inflation. That’s a sentiment that’s been expressed by more and more Fed policymakers in the weeks since. Five of the 12 officials who vote on policy this year have indicated they’re leaning toward keeping rates on hold next month. “We need to be careful and cautious now about monetary policy,” Fed Governor Michael Barr, who in the past has leaned toward providing support for the labour market, said this week.Other past doves have also indicated they might be more comfortable holding rates steady next month. They include Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who hasn’t dissented in his nearly three years at the Fed, but said he would if he felt like he needed to. “If I end up feeling strongly one way, and it’s different from what everybody else thinks, then that’s what it is. That’s fine.I think that’s healthy,” Goolsbee said Thursday in a call with reporters. “I don’t think there’s anything wrong with dissenting.” He acknowledged there have been more dissents this year than in recent Fed history, but also called that healthy. It’s not unprecedented in the longer arc of the central bank’s existence.Dissents abounded in the 1980s, when the Fed lifted rates to punishingly high levels in order to bring down high inflation, and in the 1990s when lingering anxiety about price pressures had many policymakers concerned about easing too much. “Uncertainty is a pervasive feature of the macro economy and monetary policymaking,” Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Friday. “A policymaker cannot know with certitude the current state of every relevant aspect of the economy, let alone exactly how every part of the economy works or what shocks may arrive.Yet policymakers must still make policy decisions.” The December decision is shaping up to be the closest call in years. Some, like Deutsche Bank Senior Economist Brett Ryan, believe Williams locked in a cut with his Friday remarks. Others aren’t so sure. “I really think it’s still a coin flip,” said Sahm.

Bond traders have pushed back against Federal Reserve officials urging them to use a key borrowing facility, complicating the central bank’s efforts to ease strains in the $12tn market for repurchase agreements. Primary dealers representing Wall Street banks told the officials at a meeting last week that borrowing directly from the central bank still carries a stigma and could be seen as a sign of trouble.That’s one reason they’ve been reluctant to use the Standing Repo Facility (SRF), according to people familiar with the discussion, who asked for anonymity to discuss details of private conversations. Others pointed to operational and balance-sheet constraints that made it difficult to access the facility, which was set up by the Federal Reserve in 2021 to serve as a backstop in money markets.The discussion on November 12 unfolded on the sidelines of a Treasury conference where New York Fed President John Williams and System Open Market Account manager Roberto Perli reiterated the facility’s importance as a monetary-policy tool. “It is best thought of as a way of making sure that the overall market has adequate liquidity consistent with the FOMC’s desired level of interest rates,” Williams told the conference, adding that use of the facility had been rising. “I fully expect that the SRF will continue to be actively used in this way and contain upward pressures on money market rates.” Williams then convened the New York Fed’s primary trading counterparties “to continue engagement on the purpose of the Standing Repo Facility as a tool of monetary policy implementation and to solicit feedback that ensures it remains effective for rate control,” according to a spokesperson.The primary dealers come from a group of financial institutions that trade government securities directly with the central bank. Short-term borrowing markets have been in the spotlight in recent weeks, as ebbing liquidity has kept rates stubbornly elevated and the Fed is scheduled to conclude its balance sheet unwind on December 1.Policymakers had anticipated that dwindling bank reserves would push up funding costs, eventually spurring more counterparties to use the SRF — a process that, in theory, would help keep a lid on repo rates. But while usage has increased periodically, officials said a notable amount of transactions still occur above the facility’s offering rate of 4%, according to Perli, suggesting dealers are hesitant to tap it.That has spurred calls on Wall Street for a more forceful response from the central bank to ease the pinch in a market that serves as a critical source of day-to-day funding. Dealers have floated ideas to make the facility more attractive, including allowing its transactions to be centrally cleared through the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation, according to the people familiar with the discussions.Since its inception as a permanent facility in July 2021, the SRF has been criticised by market participants for structural issues that make it inconvenient to use. “There were problems with the SRF from the beginning,” Curvature Securities executive vice president Scott Skyrm wrote in a note to clients on Monday. “The Fed added an 8:30am auction which helped with a timing issue, but primary dealers are still reluctant to use the facility and seem to want excessive spreads to intermediate.” For one, borrowing directly from the Fed requires banks to hold more capital against their positions than is required with some alternative repo trades.That means SRF transactions take up more room on the banks’ balance sheets, adding to the perception that they’re inefficient. The results of the Fed’s latest Senior Financial Officer survey released in March showed institutions rated public disclosures of counterparty information as the “most discouraging factor” in their decision-making around participating in the twice-daily operations.Some respondents added that transactions required approval from either funding desk management or even bank executives. At the meeting earlier this month, dealers told officials they should be communicating with bank executives about the issues instead, the people familiar with the discussion said.The Fed’s Perli underlined the importance of the SRF in public remarks at the conference in New York last week. “Stable, efficient and well-functioning repo markets are in everyone’s best interest and vital for ensuring rate control, and the SRF is a crucial tool in supporting those objectives,” he said. Institutions last month tapped the facility for a total of $50.4bn on the final trading day of October.That was the highest level since before the daily operations were made permanent more than four years ago as the result of the liquidity drain in the funding markets. Yet Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said last month she was disappointed to see rates on a large share of tri-party repo transactions exceed the SRF rate during the final week of October.Logan, who before becoming president of the Dallas Fed in 2022, spent her career on the markets desk at the New York Fed, has urged the central bank to strengthen its tools. For Blake Gwinn, head of US interest rate strategy at RBC Capital Markets, part of the problem with SRF lies in its structure, which requires transactions to be run through banks’ treasury desks rather than as a typical repo operation. “Part of the original sin is the SRF is never what it should be,” he said “It was framed as a bank alternative to reserves, but it should’ve been a repo operation to begin with.”

Former Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler abruptly resigned after Chair Jerome Powell refused to grant her a waiver to address financial holdings that ran afoul of the central bank’s ethics rules, according to a Fed official.Kugler also faced a probe by the Fed’s internal watchdog related to her recent financial disclosures before stepping down in August, according to a document released Saturday.Fed ethics officials declined to certify Kugler’s latest disclosures, which were posted on the website of the Office of Government Ethics, and referred the matter to the board’s inspector general, the document showed. The OGE also declined to certify Kugler’s newly released disclosures.The disclosures revealed details related to financial activity that violated the Fed’s internal ethics rules.Kugler announced on August 1 that she would resign effective August 8, without citing a reason and after she missed the central bank’s July 29-30 policy meeting. At the time, the Fed said her absence from the meeting was due to a “personal matter.”Ahead of that meeting, Kugler sought permission to conduct financial transactions to address what the Fed official described as impermissible financial holdings. It wasn’t immediately clear which holdings were involved in that request.According to the official, Kugler asked for a waiver to rules requiring top Fed officials to obtain clearance before conducting certain financial transactions and prohibiting them from trading during so-called blackout periods which straddle their policy meetings. Powell denied the request.The newly released documents revealed previously undisclosed trading in individual stocks in 2024, which is prohibited for Fed officials and their immediate family members, including Materialise NV, Southwest Airlines, Cava Group, Apple and Caterpillar.Some of the prohibited trades also represented violations for having been executed during blackout periods straddling each policy meeting during which no transactions are allowed.That included the purchase of Cava shares on March 13, 2024, days ahead of a March 19-20 meeting and the sale of Southwest shares on April 29, 2024, on the eve of the Fed’s April 30-May 1 gathering. The disclosure also lists several fund transactions that fell within blackout periods.A footnote connected to the January 2, 2024 sale of Materialise NV shares read: “Consistent with her September 15, 2024, disclosure, certain trading activity was carried out by Dr Kugler’s spouse, without Dr Kugler’s knowledge and she affirms that her spouse did not intend to violate any rules or policies.”Kugler, who was appointed to the Fed in September 2023 by President Joe Biden, declined to comment.In the financial disclosure released Saturday, Fed ethics official Sean Croston said, “Consistent with our standard practices and policies, matters related to this disclosure were referred earlier this year by the Board’s Ethics Office to the independent Office of Inspector General for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.”The financial disclosure, which was submitted roughly a month after Kugler’s departure, covered calendar years 2024 and 2025 through her resignation. Top Fed officials are required to submit disclosures annually and after leaving the central bank, and to report periodic financial transactions.In periodic financial disclosures during 2024, Kugler acknowledged that she had run afoul of Fed investment and trading rules when her spouse completed four purchases of shares of Apple and Cava Group Inc.Those trades violated the central bank’s rules that limit how senior Fed officials, their spouses and minor children invest and trade.Kugler said her spouse made the purchases without her knowledge. The shares were later divested and Kugler was deemed in compliance with applicable laws and regulations by the Fed’s designated ethics official, according to the disclosures.Kugler’s resignation gave President Donald Trump an earlier-than-expected opportunity to fill a slot on the Fed’s board in the midst of his intense pressure campaign urging policymakers to drastically lower interest rates. The opening ultimately went to Trump ally Stephen Miran, who took an unpaid leave of absence from his post as a White House economic adviser and has called repeatedly for rapid rate cuts.Powell introduced tougher restrictions on investing and trading for policymakers and senior staff at the central bank in 2022. That followed revelations of unusual trading activity during 2020 by several senior officials.Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Dallas Fed chief Robert Kaplan each announced their early retirement after the revelations, with Rosengren citing ill health. The Fed’s internal watchdog ultimately cleared the pair of legal wrongdoing, but chastised them for undermining public confidence in the central bank.The new rules, which the Fed said at the time were aimed at supporting the public’s confidence in the impartiality and integrity of policymakers, boosted financial disclosure requirements, among other measures.

QNB expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to 'moderately' continue with its easing cycle, cutting the Fed funds rate twice more to 3.5%. Below trend labour and capacity utilisation justify continued policy rate cuts, while limited downside potential places the adequate floor to rates around neutral levels, QNB said in an economic commentary. The Fed is once again at the forefront of the global macro agenda, after a period dominated by US-driven trade negotiations, fiscal debates and geopolitical conflict. Economic policy uncertainty has been reduced significantly on the back of a plethora of trade deals and a less contentious fiscal framework from the Trump administration. Importantly, inflation uncertainty has also been reduced as prices are proving to be less responsive to higher tariffs than previously expected. However, despite the significant stabilisation of the overall policy environment, monetary policy is becoming a more contested space. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed decided for another 25 basis points (bps) rate cut late last month, continuing with the easing cycle that started in September 2024 and resumed this September after eight months of pause, there is clearly significant dissent amongst FOMC Board members. In fact, during the last FOMC meeting, Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favour of a larger 50 bps cut, whereas Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid dissented in favour of no reductions at all. This “two-sided” dissent is a very rare occurrence in a historically more consensus-prone Fed. Moreover, there seems to also be widening differences in conviction about the timing and even direction of Fed fund rates between markets and policymakers going forward. Investors are currently expecting the Fed to continue with the rate cutting cycle that started in September 2024, with one more 25 bps cut “priced in” for December 2025 and three further rate cuts throughout 2026, for a cyclical terminal rate of around 3%. But Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, is less certain about this outcome, stating recently that further policy rate cuts are far from a foregone conclusion. In QNB’s view, there is space for two more 25 bps rate cuts, likely in December and again in early 2026. Hence, it believes that both the “hawkish” central bankers that want to pause again the monetary easing cycle and their “dovish” colleagues that advocate for much deeper rate cuts are likely too aggressive in their positions. Similarly, prevailing market expectations are likely too optimistic in their assessment about four further cuts to a 2026 end-year rate of 3%. Two main points sustain our view **media[382145]** First, we believe that there is still more room for a couple more rate cuts because current policy rates are still too tight vis-à-vis existing macro conditions in the US. At 4%, policy rates are restrictive or around 50 bps above what we consider to be the neutral rate, i.e., the level at which rates are neither supportive nor restrictive for activity. US capacity utilisation, measured in terms of the state of the labour market as well as the level of industrial activity, indicates that the US economy is set to run below potential. In H2-2025, for the first time in more than four years, the “jobs gap” is suggesting that the labour market is loose rather than tight, i.e., the sum of job openings and employment is lower than the total civilian labour force. This is because new job openings have been reduced significantly from more than 12mn new posts per month in early 2022 to around seven million in recent months. Importantly, coincident labour data from private sources are indicating an accelerating trend of US layoffs. US based employers cut more than 150 thousand jobs in October, marking the biggest reduction for the month in more than two decades, as companies are seeking to reduce costs, mitigate tariff-related margin pressures and increase efficiency with AI adoption. Moreover, industrial activity is running below its long-term trend. These conditions, that together inform QNB’s US capacity utilisation index, point to below potential growth and support additional rate cuts to neutral levels over the coming quarters, i.e., policy rates that are at the estimated neutral threshold of around 3.5%. Second, while there is room for additional policy easing, the further deeper cuts supported by the “dovish” members of the Fed and expected by markets seem to be too aggressive. The US economy adjusted significantly and slowed down from close to 3% growth in both 2023 and 2024 to around 2% growth this year. But there is little evidence of an incoming sharper downturn or deterioration, not to mention any potential recession. Investments have been strong on the back of record capex from tech companies seeking to lead the AI wave, whereas consumption has been slowing only gradually as US households still benefit from their strongest net financial position in decades. In other words, in the absence of new negative shocks, further downside pressure for US growth is limited. Hence, there appear to be no justification to reduce the policy rate further from neutral down to accommodative levels, QNB said.

Gold prices declined on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US dollar as investors scaled back expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts following hawkish remarks by Chair Jerome Powell last week. Easing US-China trade tensions also pressured bullion.Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,968.76 per ounce, while US gold futures for December delivery slipped 0.5% to $3,978.30 per ounce. The US dollar held firm near its three-month high reached last week, making the greenback-priced metal more expensive for holders of other currencies.The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday by 0.25 percentage point, marking its second rate cut this year, bringing the benchmark overnight rate to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%. Among other precious metals, spot silver dropped 0.5% to $48.41 per ounce, platinum eased 0.1% to $1,566.40, and palladium declined 0.6% to $1,424.88.

Gold prices extended their decline on Wednesday amid profit-taking following recent record highs, as investors awaited key US inflation data this week for further indications on the Federal Reserve's potential path toward interest rate cuts. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,113.54 per ounce, after plunging more than 5% on Tuesday — its sharpest daily drop since August 2020. Meanwhile, US gold futures for December delivery rose 0.5% to $4,129.80 per ounce. Despite the recent correction, gold prices have surged about 56% so far this year, hitting an all-time high of $4,381.21 on Monday. The rally has been driven by heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, growing expectations of interest rate reductions, and sustained central bank demand for the yellow metal. Among other precious metals, spot silver fell 0.9% to $48.29 per ounce, platinum dropped 1.1% to $1,534.44, while palladium was steady at $1,406.76 per ounce.

The US dollar held steady in early Asian trading on Wednesday, after remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reinforced market expectations of an interest rate cut later this month.The greenback had weakened on Tuesday against both the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, as trade tensions between the United States and China intensified following renewed tariff-related exchanges.The euro gained ground after the French government proposed suspending planned pension reforms, providing some support to the single currency.The dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, was unchanged at 99.06, after falling 0.2% in the previous session.Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was steady at 151.80 yen, following a 0.3% decline on Tuesday. The greenback was also little changed against the Swiss franc, trading at 0.8013 francs, after slipping 0.3% in the prior session.The euro was stable at $1.1606, maintaining gains of 0.3% recorded yesterday.Elsewhere, the Australian dollar edged up 0.1% to $0.6491, after a 0.5% drop on Tuesday that took it to its weakest level since August 22 at $0.6440. The New Zealand dollar eased 0.1% to $0.5706, extending Tuesday's 0.2% decline when it hit a six-month low of $0.5684.

Gold prices surged to a new record high above $4,100 on Tuesday, driven by growing expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and renewed US-China trade tensions that spurred safe-haven demand. Silver also rallied to an all-time high. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,124.79 per ounce, after touching a record $4,131.52 earlier in the session. US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.3% to $4,143.10. The precious metal has climbed nearly 57% since the beginning of the year, breaking above the $4,100 mark for the first time on Monday. The rally has been underpinned by geopolitical and economic uncertainty, expectations of monetary easing, robust central bank purchases, and strong inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds. Spot silver advanced 0.3% to $52.49 per ounce, after earlier hitting $52.70. Among other precious metals, platinum rose 0.5% to $1,653.45 per ounce, while palladium added 1.6% to $1,498.25, its highest level since May 2023.

Gold and silver prices surged to new record highs on Monday, driven by strong safe-haven demand amid renewed trade tensions between the United States and China, as well as expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,044.29 per ounce, while US gold futures for December delivery advanced 1.6% to $4,062.50. Silver climbed 2% in spot trading to a record $51.52 per ounce, extending its recent rally. Gold, which yields no interest, has gained 54% so far this year, supported by anticipation of lower borrowing costs and increased geopolitical uncertainty. Among other precious metals, platinum rose 2.6% to $1,628.80 per ounce, while palladium gained 2.6% to $1,442.06.

Gold surged past the $4,000 mark per ounce for the first time in history on Wednesday, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid intensifying economic and geopolitical uncertainties and growing expectations of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,021.22 per ounce, while US gold futures for December delivery advanced 0.5% to $4,025 per ounce. Traditionally viewed as a store of value in times of instability, gold has been one of the strongest-performing assets in 2025, soaring 53% year-to-date after posting a 27% gain in 2024. In other precious metals markets, spot silver increased 0.5% to $48.03 per ounce, platinum rose 2.2% to $1,653.21, and palladium climbed 1.3% to $1,355.32.

Gold surged to a fresh record high on Tuesday as investors sought safe-haven assets amid a prolonged US government shutdown and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,974.09 per ounce, trading near its all-time high of $3,977.19 earlier in the session. US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.5% to $3,996.40. The precious metal has climbed 51% so far this year, supported by strong central bank purchases, robust inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds, a weaker dollar, and increased demand from retail investors seeking protection amid heightened geopolitical and trade tensions. In other precious metals, spot silver was little changed at $48.52 per ounce, platinum rose 0.1% to $1,626.55, and palladium advanced 0.9% to $1,330.91.

Gold prices rose on Monday to hover near an all-time high, supported by a weaker dollar and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue with interest rate cuts later this year. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,776.72 per ounce. Bullion hit a record of $3,790.82 last week. US gold futures for December delivery were steady at $3,806.20. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.6% to $46.26 per ounce, platinum climbed 2.2% to $1,602.45 and palladium gained 0.8% at $1,279.68.