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The US dollar climbed to a two-month-high in early Asian trading on Wednesday, as mounting risks surrounding the US government shutdown stoked investor anxiety and lifted demand for safe-haven assets. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major peers, rose 0.3% to 98.91, its strongest level since August 5. The New Zealand dollar weakened as much as 1% to $0.5739 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points, signaling the possibility of further monetary easing amid worsening economic indicators. The Australian dollar slipped 0.4% to $0.6559, while the dollar strengthened 0.4% against the yen to 152.54, hovering near its highest level since February. Meanwhile, the euro declined 0.3% to $1.1618 and the British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3395. The offshore Chinese yuan eased 0.1% from the previous session to 7.1506 per dollar.

Gold prices surged to a record high on Wednesday, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets after the official start of the US government shutdown and as soft labor data bolstered expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Spot gold was up at $3,873.46 per ounce. Bullion logged about 12% rise in September, making it the metal's sharpest monthly rise since August 2011. US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.4% to $3,888.80. Elsewhere, spot silver was steady at $46.64 per ounce, platinum held its ground at $1,573.76 and palladium fell 0.4 % to $1,252.25.

Gold prices rose further to hit a fresh high on Tuesday and were poised for their best month in 14 years, as fears of a potential US government shutdown and growing expectations of further US interest rate cuts boosted demand for the safe-haven metal. Spot gold was up 1% at $3,869.75 per ounce. Bullion has risen 11.4% so far in September, on track for its best month since August 2011. US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.4% to $3,872. Spot silver was steady at $46.95 per ounce, platinum eased 0.2% to $1,597.58, and palladium fell 0.8% to $1,259.02.

Legal Perspective To promote international trade, there is a great need for financial guarantees to support exports and imports. In this respect, the International Chamber of Commerce’s (ICC) “Uniform Rules for Demand Guarantees” (URDG 758) and the United Nations Convention on Independent Guarantees and Standby Letters of Credit (ISDGP) are both giving international guidelines for guarantees. The UN endorsed the “URDG 758” in 2011 to promote a kind of clarity, predictability, sustainability and great harmonisation in international trade. Both are relating to guarantees, one for "demand" guarantees whereas the other for "independent" guarantees. While the URDG 758 rules have been developed and published by the ICC with the intention to promote and to specify rules for "demand" guarantees, needed for international trade purposes. With this understanding in mind, we say that the UN Convention is intended as an international convention for "independent" guarantees and standby letters of credit. To explain more, we take the opportunity to highlight some features of the URDG and the UN Convention. The URDG 758 rules govern demand guarantees, which are forms of financial security used in international trade to ensure performance or payment. The current edition, URDG 758, came into force on 2010. The UN endorsed the URDG 758 in 2011 with the aim of harmonising international trade law and at the same time to remove all legal obstacles to enhance international trade. The URDG 758 mainly aims to provide clarity, precision, and predictability in demand guarantee practices. Regarding the ISDGP, we can say that, this is an international convention created by the UN Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL). The Convention, provides a legal framework for independent guarantees and standby letters of credit, which are also common in international trade frequent transactions. The UN Convention and the URDG often cover similar areas and are sometimes used in conjunction or in comparison to one another; the two resemble the two sides of the coin. Harmonisation is taken as a relationship and significance to both, the URDG and the UN Convention enable them to work towards harmonising trade practices and laws related to guarantees in their different shapes. The UN's endorsement of the URDG 758 signifies the clear support of the international community for these rules and their role in modernising trade. With reference to application, it is left for the parties to a guarantee who can choose which rules to apply. For the URDG, important to say, the guarantee itself expressly indicates it is subject to the URDG and for them to be applicable. The United Nations Convention on Independent Guarantees and Standby Letters as UCP and URDG are issued with the aim of developing different international trade relations. The UNICITRAL and the UN endorses ICC Demand Guarantee Rules the “URDG 758, and this endorsement reinforces the ICC mandate of removing legal different obstacles to international trade by actively and progressively modernising procedures and enhancing relative laws and regulations. International trade, deserves all support to promote international ties and peaceful relations between all parts of the world. An “independent” guarantee, like a “demand guarantee”, creates a primary direct obligation for the guarantor, separate from the underlying contract and requires payment upon presentation of a demand. The key difference is that a demand guarantee is a specific type of independent guarantee, where the payment is triggered by a simple written demand by the beneficiary, regardless of the underlying contract's performance. In contrast, other independent guarantees may have more specific conditions for payment that are tied to the main agreement. Dr AbdelGadir Warsama Ghalib is a corporate legal counsel. Email: [email protected]

Oil prices climbed in early trade on Monday, trimming some of last week's losses, after OPEC+ agreed to slow the pace of output increases from October amid expectations of weaker global demand. Brent Crude gained 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $65.84 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 30 cents, or 0.5%, to $62.17 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell more than 2% on Friday as a weak US jobs report dimmed the outlook for energy demand. They lost more than 3% last week. Under the new OPEC+ decision, eight member countries will lift production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in October, far below the monthly increases of about 555,000 bpd for September and August, and 411,000 bpd in July and June.

As the oil market moves closer to a long-anticipated glut, traders are closely watching buying from China to see if it will absorb an excess that the world’s crude producing nations are set to pump.Earlier this year, China piled into the crude market to snap up millions of barrels, including some that went into its strategic storage. The buildup has since slowed down as the nation’s domestic demand picked up, but with expectations that Beijing will continue to amass barrels, its next steps are seen as critical.With China’s vast network of oil tank farms still a little over 50% full, according to OilX data, traders say another spree would limit the damage from a long-anticipated glut in other parts of the globe. That’s significant because if China’s buying is elevated, it will prevent a buildup of supply in a narrow set of hubs in Midwestern America and Northwest Europe, limiting how far prices can fall.“The key question is where stockbuilds will turn up,” HSBC Holdings Plc analysts including Kim Fustier wrote this week. “If China continues to absorb excess oil volumes via its strategic reserves, as it did in in the second quarter, stockbuilds in the OECD could be muted.”The global market’s capacity to absorb barrels will be among talking points when OPEC+ nations meet to discuss supply on Sunday. Saudi Arabia wants the group to accelerate the return of another tranche of halted output adding to concerns about a surplus that would depress prices but all options are on the table.About 10% of the nation’s crude stockpiling has been directed to its strategic petroleum reserves, according to Kayrros analyst Antoine Halff. There have also been additions to the country’s refining capacity, such as CNOOC Ltd’s Daxie plant, and the addition of new tank space.It’s also possible that Beijing wants to hold more barrels in storage given the heightened levels of geopolitical risks over the last few years, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies wrote in a note.While China’s flagship crude futures contract was flashing a softer market over recent weeks, the world’s two main benchmark’s continued to suggest relatively tight supplies.That’s because inventory builds so far this year have avoided western hubs. In Cushing, Oklahoma, the tank farm of about 15 storage terminals that underpins the West Texas Intermediate futures contract, inventories have been repeatedly near multi-year seasonal lows this year.The International Energy Agency says that in the second quarter global oil stockpiles increased by the most since the third three months of 2020, when the global economy was still being ravaged by the Covid-19 pandemic. Over that period, stockpiles in the developed world climbed by 60,000 barrels a day, while expanding by more than 1mn barrels a day everywhere else.It’s still possible that prices will need to fall from current levels for China buy in a big way, though, according to Frederic Lasserre, head of research at Gunvor Group.“The last solver that everybody is talking about is China,” he said. “Not for runs, but because we’ve seen a recent trend of them being willing to build up crude barrels. But if you expect China to go back to stockpiling 1mn barrels a day, you need a big price drop to incentivise it.”Both inside and outside of China there’s plenty of space to store unwanted oil.Bank of America Corp wrote last month that there’s about a billion barrels of empty tank capacity available across the globe to fill with inventories, which could mean that markets avoid falling into a heavily bearish structure.There are signs that the surge in production is starting to come, though. Brazil’s output approached 4mn barrels a day for the first time over the summer, and a new field is due to start in the country before the end of the year. Guyana has moved from producing nothing to almost 1mn barrels a day and output in Canada’s oil heartland of Alberta hit a record in July.At the same time, despite concerns about a decline in US output, the Energy Information Administration has consistently revised oil supply estimates higher over the last few months.What traders are waiting for now, is for those increases to appear at key storage hubs.“When we look at OECD inventories we’re still at a relatively low level,” Nadia Martin Wiggen, a director at Svelland Capital, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “Yes, there is this supply glut coming according to expectations, but we need to see that materialising.”

OilOil prices fell on Friday as a weak US jobs report dimmed the outlook for energy demand, while swelling supplies may grow further after Opec and allied producers meet over the weekend. Brent crude futures settled at $65.50 a barrel, down $1.49. US WTI crude finished at $61.87, down $1.61.On Wednesday, Reuters reported that eight Opec+ producers would consider raising production further at a meeting on Sunday. US crude inventories rose 2.4mn barrels last week, rather than falling as analysts expected. US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 22,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 79,000 in July, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday.The weak jobs report will put pressure on the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Expectations are growing that Opec+ – the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia – will decide at Sunday's meeting to push more barrels into the market to regain market share.The group would be starting to unwind a second layer of output cuts of about 1.65mn barrels per day, or 1.6% of world demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump told European leaders on Thursday that Europe must stop buying Russian oil. Any cuts to Russia's crude exports or other disruption to supplies could push oil prices higher.GasAsian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices held steady last week as regional demand remained muted, while a gas supply deal between Russia and China is seen curbing future LNG shipments from the top Asian importer.Industry sources estimated that the average LNG price for October delivery into Northeast Asia was $11.30 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), up slightly from $11.15 per mmBtu the previous week. Meanwhile, following the first unloading of an LNG cargo from Russia's sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project in China, Beijing and Moscow this week signed agreements to increase gas supply via the existing Power of Siberia pipeline, and to construct the Power of Siberia 2, though they have yet to agree on pricing.China is sending a clear geopolitical signal that it is willing to receive more Russian gas, reducing LNG dependency from other sources from 2027 and influencing the profitability of other LNG producers. In Europe, the Dutch TTF hub settled at $11.02 per mmBtu, recording a weekly gain of 2.6%. Continued supply growth from the US helped to offset the decline seen from Nigeria. This also comes at a time where imports into Europe have seen slight declines as subsided heatwaves and easing fears over storage added further bearish tailwinds into the market. The US arbitrage to Northeast Asia via the Cape of Good Hope narrowed significantly last week, only marginally incentivising US cargo deliveries to Europe.This article was supplied by the Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah International Foundation for Energy and Sustainable Development.

Beyond the TarmacAn improvement in both passenger and cargo volumes in the global air transport industry during July suggests renewed economic momentum, stronger global trade, and growing travel demand clear signs of resilience and confidence in the global air transport sector.Data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) revealed global passenger demand measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), was up 4% in July compared to the same period in 2024.Similarly, total demand in global air cargo, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), rose by 5.5% in July compared to July 2024 levels.Industry analysts see increased passenger and cargo activity in July reflecting restored international mobility, expansion of route networks, and better global connectivity between markets.In the passenger segment, the July load factor was 85.5% (-0.4 ppt compared to July 2024).International demand rose 5.3% in July compared to July, 2024. Capacity was up 5.8% year-on-year, and the load factor was 85.6% (-0.4 ppt compared to July 2024).Domestic demand increased 1.8% in July compared to the same month in 2024. Capacity was up 2.3% year-on-year. The load factor was 85.2% (-0.4 ppt compared to July 2024).In the global air cargo segment, capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), increased by 3.9% compared to July 2024 (+4.5% for international operations).IATA Director General Willie Walsh noted, “Air cargo demand grew 5.5% in July, a strong result. Most major trade lanes reported growth, with one significant exception: Asia–North America, where demand was down 1.0% year-on-year.“A sharp decline in e-commerce, as the US 'de minimis' exemptions on small shipments expired, was likely offset by shippers frontloading goods in advance of rising tariffs for imports to the US. August will likely reveal more clearly the impact of shifting US trade policies.“While much attention is rightly being focused on developments in markets connected to the US, it is important to keep a broad perspective on the global network. A fifth of air cargo travels on the Europe–Asia trade lane, which marked 29 months of consecutive expansion with 13.5% year-on-year growth in July.”According to IATA, several factors in the operating environment should be noted.First, the global goods trade grew by 3.1% year-on-year in June.The July jet fuel price was 9.1% lower year-on-year and has remained below 2024 levels so far this year, easing airlines’ operating costs. However, it was 4.3% higher than in June.Global manufacturing contracted in July with the PMI falling to 49.66, the second dip below the 50-mark growth threshold since January.Also, new export orders also remained negative at 48.2 for the fourth month, reflecting waning confidence amid US trade policy uncertainty.“It has been a good northern summer season for airlines. Momentum has grown over the peak season with July demand reaching 4% growth. That trend appears across all regions and is particularly evident for international travel, which strengthened from 3.9% growth in June to 5.3% in July. Moreover, with flight volumes showing a 2% year-on-year increase for September after five months of decelerating growth, airlines are positioned to take advantage of this market momentum into the coming months,” Walsh noted.Rising cargo volumes typically reflect growth in international trade, manufacturing, and supply chain demand. Passenger growth points to higher consumer confidence, business travel recovery, and robust tourism.July is usually a peak travel season in the Northern Hemisphere, but stronger-than-usual growth suggests that the industry may be moving beyond past slowdowns triggered by pandemic aftereffects, geopolitical disruptions, or supply chain constraints.Sustained improvements in both segments signal that stakeholders (governments, investors, airports, and logistics firms) see the industry on a stable growth trajectory, supporting investment and fleet expansion.Clearly, the improvement in passenger and cargo volumes in July highlights a rebound in the global air transport industry. Higher passenger traffic reflects strong travel demand, while increased cargo volumes point to healthy global trade flows.The dual rise in passengers and cargo confirms that the industry is on a path of resilience and long-term growth, supported by both consumer demand and global economic activity.Together, they indicate renewed economic momentum, rising consumer and business confidence, and a continued recovery in international connectivity.

Eurozone factory activity expanded for the first time since mid-2022 as domestic demand offset the impact from US tariffs while the Asian manufacturing sector saw shrinkage, private surveys showed Monday.There were mixed signals over the Chinese economy, however, as one such survey unexpectedly indicated modest expansion, contradicting an official readout the day before which showed activity continuing to shrink. Export powerhouses Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all saw manufacturing activity shrink in August, underscoring the challenge Asia faces in weathering the hit from sharply higher trade barriers erected by US President Donald Trump. In Europe, Greece and Spain led factory growth while manufacturing in Germany, the bloc's largest economy, shrank albeit at a slower pace.The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to an over-three-year high of 50.7 in August from 49.8 in July, surpassing the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction."The recovery is real but remains fragile. Inventory levels continue to decline, and the slightly accelerated drop in order backlogs shows that companies are still suffering from uncertainty," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. "Domestic orders have risen and are offsetting the weakening demand from abroad. In fact, the best remedy against US tariffs may be to strengthen domestic demand."Meanwhile, manufacturing in Germany rose to a 38-month high of 49.8, a whisker away from the 50 mark, offering hope for the economy that shrank 0.3% last quarter on slowing demand from its top trading partner the US.The EU and the US struck a framework trade deal in late July but only the baseline tariff of 15% has so far been implemented. In Britain, outside the European Union, factory activity suffered a fresh setback in August after signs of a recovery due to worries about trade tensions and tax increases at home.The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49.7 in August, improving from 48.9 in July but staying below the 50 threshold for two straight months.South Korea's factory activity also shrank with the S&P Global PMI standing at 48.3 in August, up from 48.0 in July but contracting for the seventh straight month.Both countries struck a trade deal with the US that eased, but not removed, the pressure on their export-reliant economies."It's a double-whammy for Asian economies, as they face higher US tariffs and competition from cheap Chinese exports," said Toru Nishihama, chief emerging market economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "We'll likely see the hit from US tariffs intensify going forward, with countries reliant on U.S.-bound shipments like Thailand and South Korea particularly vulnerable," he said.However, the RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, unexpectedly rose to 50.5 in August from 49.5 in July, exceeding the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. The reading confounds an official survey on Sunday that showed activity shrank for a fifth straight month on weak domestic demand and uncertainty over the outcome of Beijing's trade deal with the USHalf-way through the month Trump extended his tariff truce with China for another 90 days, withholding imposition of three-digit duties until November 10.Meanwhile, India, which grew at a much better-than-expected 7.8% in the last quarter, continued to be a significant outlier in the region. Manufacturing activity in Asia's third-largest economy expanded at its fastest pace in more than 17 years in August.But the Trump administration's steep 50% tariff on US imports of Indian goods like garments, gems and jewellery threatens to dampen growth in the coming quarters.

Qatar’s GDP growth will more than double in 2026-2027, with both the energy and non-energy sectors contributing positively this year and beyond, according to Oxford Economics.The researcher’s 2025 GDP growth forecast is unchanged at 2.4%, similar to the pace of expansion last year. However, trade-related uncertainty will remain a headwind to global demand, it said in a country report.Oxford Economics thinks growth in Qatar’s energy sector will remain modest this year, following a 0.6% expansion in 2024, before picking up strongly in 2026-2027.According to Oxford Economics, Qatar isn't involved in the OPEC+ pact on production quotas and its oil output has been relatively flat in recent years, at around 600,000 barrels per day.Last year, the authorities doubled down on the North Field gas expansion project, which will have a positive medium-term impact. Qatar raised its liquefied natural gas capacity target to 142mn tonnes per year by end-2030.This is up nearly 85% from the current 77mtpy, and up 13% on the intermediate target of 126mtpy by 2027. The first production boost will come from the North Field East project by mid-2026, followed by the North Field South phase of the expansion.The North Field West phase is in its early stages, with construction likely to begin in 2027.Qatar is also making progress in contracting future gas output. The government has signed long-term supply contracts with India, China, France, Germany, Hungary, Kuwait, and Taiwan, and is negotiating a deal with Japan.Output data (reported in April this year) showed the non-energy economy expanded by 3.4% last year, and the researcher projects the same pace of growth in 2025.The 2025 budget targets a deficit of QR13.2bn (1.6% of projected GDP). The authorities plan to raise spending by 4.6% relative to last year's budget and 1.2% relative to realised expenditure, with a strong focus on development in education and healthcare. The bill assumes an average oil price of $60/barrel.It projects a surplus of QR23bn (2.8% of GDP), larger than the surplus of QAR5.6bn (0.7% of GDP) realised in 2024. The researcher sees the balance improving to 5.7% of GDP next year amid the LNG production boost.Oxford Economics also noted tourism has provided significant support to non- energy growth and will remain a driver of future activity and employment.Qatar welcomed 5.1mn overnight arrivals in 2024, a 25% increase on 2023 and 138% higher than 2019 levels. The launch of the pan-GCC visa will likely help extend the positive performance and we forecast arrivals to increase to 5.3mn this year, it said.