tag

The European Commission proposed Wednesday an unprecedented use of frozen Russian assets or international borrowing to raise €90bn ($105bn) for Ukraine to cover its struggling military and basic services against Russia's war.The European Union's executive body has declared it favours a "reparations loan" using Russian state assets immobilised in the EU due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But Belgium, which holds most of the assets, has voiced a range of concerns that it said had not been satisfactorily addressed by the proposals."We are proposing to cover two-thirds of Ukraine’s financing needs for the next two years. That’s €90bn euros. The remainder would be for international partners to cover," Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters."Since pressure is the only language the Kremlin responds to, we can also dial it up," she said. "We have to increase the costs of war for (Russian President Vladimir) Putin's aggression and today's proposal gives us the means to do this."She said the proposal to EU member states had taken into account almost all the concerns raised by Belgium, whose Brussels-based financial institution Euroclear is the main holder of the assets.The proposal would now also cover other financial institutions in the EU that hold Russian assets, von der Leyen said. EU officials said France, Germany, Sweden and Cyprus also held such assets.Russia has warned the EU and Belgium against using its assets, which it says would be an act of theft. The Commission says the scheme does not amount to confiscation as the money would be in the form of a loan — although Ukraine would only have to redeem it if Russia pays reparations.The complexities around the scheme increased after a US-backed 28-point plan to end the war in Ukraine proposed that some of the assets be used in a joint American-Russian investment vehicle.But von der Leyen said she had informed US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent of her plan to move forward with the reparations loan and it had been "positively received".Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said the EU was also seeking to persuade other international partners to provide support in the first quarter of next year as the EU money would probably not be available until the second quarter.The Commission said the EU could proceed with the scheme if 15 out of 27 member countries, representing at least 65% of the bloc's population, voted in favour.EU officials said this would also apply to ensure Russia's sanctioned assets remain immobilised, an essential part of the reparations loans, under EU law allowing financial assistance in instances of "severe difficulties". Sanctions roll-overs normally require unanimity.The other option — borrowing on international markets using the EU budget — would also normally require unanimity among EU countries — a potentially difficult hurdle as Hungary's Russia-friendly government has opposed previous funding for Ukraine.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told a European Parliament hearing that using a reparations loan would be a stretch from a legal and financial standpoint though it would "hopefully" respect international law and financial stability.Hours earlier, before the Commission's legal proposals were presented, Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prevot declared that they fell short of Belgium's requirements."We have the frustrating feeling of not having been heard. Our concerns are being downplayed," Prevot told reporters at a meeting of Nato foreign ministers in Brussels."The texts the Commission will table today do not address our concerns in a satisfactory manner."The issue is likely to come to a head at an EU leaders summit on December 18, when the Commission said it hoped to clinch a firm commitment by member states.Belgium has demanded that other EU countries guarantee they will cover all legal costs arising from any Russian lawsuits against the scheme. It also wants them to guarantee they would help provide money quickly to pay Russia back if a court ever ruled Moscow must be refunded.Thirdly, it has demanded that other countries holding Russian frozen assets also make those funds available to Ukraine. 

Bearish oil traders scarred by past geopolitical price spikes are increasingly favouring safer ways to position for a looming glut.With the fresh uncertainty surrounding Russian supply, traders are shifting toward spreads, the price differences between two futures contracts, and options, which grant the holder the right but not the obligation to buy or sell oil at a set price. Those relatively less risky strategies compared to wagering on outright futures allow traders to bet on lower prices en route to a widely telegraphed oversupply of crude next year.They also serve to limit losses in the event new sanctions against Moscow, a major oil producer, prove more disruptive than feared.The activity highlights a tug-of-war between the competing narratives.There’s supply risk in oil-rich countries from Russia to Venezuela, where the political regime has met the ire of the Trump administration. Yet traders remain captivated by growing supply from both outside and within the Opec+ alliance, with the International Energy Agency predicting a record surplus for 2026. Over 1bn barrels are currently sailing across the world’s oceans with many looking for homes.“We’re stuck in a holding pattern,” said Rebecca Babin of CIBC Private Wealth said. “This isn’t a market without risk — it’s a market without clarity or conviction.”Some of the largest holdings in one-month calendar spread options, a niche type of option contract used for expressing views on over or under-supply, are on weaker near-term spreads. The cost of buying bearish put options has risen over the past few days, a sign of increasing expectations for a price drop amid ongoing peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Even so, open interest in calls and puts has remained roughly balanced across both Brent and WTI, reflecting a market that’s hedging in both directions.Read More: US Warship Cuts Path of Russian Tanker Headed to VenezuelaThe conflicting pulls are causing an industry-wide sense of déjà vu: past geopolitical shocks, such the Israel-Iran war in June, drove prices up without actually reducing supply and punished those with outright bearish bets.“We don’t need to predict the next $10 move in crude,” Cayler Capital, an oil-focused commodity trading adviser run by Brent Belote, wrote in a letter to investors seen by Bloomberg. “We need to survive the next $3 fake-out and capture the $1.50 dislocation no one else wants to trade.”In another part of the letter, Belote categorises fundamentals as “fine” and sentiment as “confused.”Wagers are growing in one-month calendar spread contracts at levels from -$0.25 to -$1 a barrel per month. The sentiment isn’t overwhelmingly bearish, though, with sizeable open interest at $0.75, which would profit from a return to tighter supply conditions. The premium that front-month WTI futures command over the next contract, known as the prompt spread, is currently trading at 22 cents.WTI calendar spread option open interest by strike, as of November 24That hasn’t eliminated the need for cautious positioning amid mounting evidence that the latest batch of US sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC are rewiring trade flows: Moscow’s oil sold at the cheapest level in over two-and-a-half years last week, and even that discount wasn’t enough to win back Asian buyers.Options markets are “pricing a quieter 2026 but maintaining a risk premium for episodic spikes,” JPMorgan analysts, including head of commodities research Natasha Kaneva, wrote in a note.The bank expects a “very gradual drift lower” in prices and recommends Brent put spreads and ratio put spreads. 

Poland said Wednesday it would close the last Russian consulate in its territory and deploy thousands of soldiers to protect infrastructure in response to a railway explosion it blames on Moscow. Poland, a major ally in Kyiv's fight against Russia's invasion, says two Ukrainians collaborating with Moscow perpetrated the weekend blast on the Warsaw-Lublin line, which connects Warsaw to the Ukrainian border.Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said at a news conference that the first response would be to close Russia's last operating consulate in the northern city of Gdansk. Warsaw has previously closed Russian consulates in Krakow and Poznan over sabotage acts. "It was not only an act of sabotage but also an act of state terrorism," Sikorski told lawmakers.Moscow denies responsibility for sabotage, citing "Russophobia", and said it would likewise limit Poland's diplomatic and consular presence in Russia. Sikorski said he would ask other EU nations to limit Russian diplomats' travel in the 25-nation Schengen free-travel area. There has been a wave of arson, sabotage and cyberattacks in Poland and other European nations since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.Polish Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said up to 10,000 soldiers will be deployed to help protect critical infrastructure such as railways. The Polish army chief of staff, Wieslaw Kukula, speaking to reporters alongside the defence minister, warned that the upcoming long winter nights and Christmas period could be perceived by Poland's enemies as a good time for sabotage.A special app is planned for citizens to report suspicious situations. Jacek Dobrzynski, spokesperson for Poland's minister in charge of intelligence services, said that in addition to the two main Ukrainian suspects who have fled to Belarus, several other people had been detained over the railway blast. A spokesperson for Polish prosecutors, Przemyslaw Nowak, said a prosecutor signed a decision to charge in absentia the two Ukrainian men — named as Oleksandr K and Yevhenii I — for sabotage on November 15 and 16 on orders of Russian intelligence.Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he had spoken with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy about the threat and agreed on cooperation between special services and state railways, plus the need to identify collaborators. The European Union's top diplomat Kaja Kallas said the attack highlighted risks to European rail infrastructure essential to move military equipment and troops fast.

Greece signed a deal with Ukraine Sunday to supply US-origin liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the war-battered country whose energy infrastructure has been crippled by Russian strikes.The agreement came as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Athens at the start of a European tour aimed at shoring up his country's defences and energy supply, as it enters another gruelling winter nearly four years into Russia's invasion.Exhausted and outnumbered Ukrainian troops are struggling to fend off Russian forces, and both sides have been attacking each other's energy infrastructure power stations and oil refineries as the war drags on with no sign of peace talks.Greece's national gas company DEPA Commercial and its Ukrainian counterpart Naftogaz announced the deal, which will run from December 2025 until March 2026, following a meeting between Zelensky and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.The agreement "marks an essential step in strengthening regional energy cooperation and European energy security", according to a joint statement.The deal, signed at a ceremony attended by US ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle, will make it possible to "support Ukraine in the midst of a difficult winter", Mitsotakis and Zelensky said.Guilfoyle visited Zelensky at the Ukrainian embassy in Athens Sunday, the state-run ERTNEWS tv channel reported."Relations between our countries are taking on a crucial new dimension: that of a new secure energy artery, stretching from south to north, from Greece to Ukraine," Mitsotakis said.He called the deal a "decisive step toward definitive energy independence from Russian gas" — a key goal for Europe, which has struggled to wean itself off imports.Most European Union countries recently approved a ban on imports of Russian natural gas by the end of 2027, a decision aimed at hitting Russia's funding for the war.Mitsotakis also pledged Greek support for Ukraine's postwar reconstruction and to deepening defence cooperation, according to a joint declaration.They plan on "enhancing security in the maritime domain, including cooperation on the development and deployment of maritime (sea) UAVs, joint exercises and training related to unmanned maritime systems, and enhanced information-sharing on maritime threats."The Ukrainian president expressed gratitude to US President Donald Trump "for the fact that we will be able to receive natural gas not only from Greece, but also (US gas) via Greece".Zelensky, who is to visit France and Spain on his tour, called the agreement a "significant part of the comprehensive energy package we have prepared for this winter".The approaching winter poses "a huge challenge... for the Ukrainian people", he said."Practically every night now, the Russians are striking our infrastructure, especially our energy infrastructure," he said."Most of Ukraine's power plants, our gas production facilities and our thermal power plants have become targets."Zelensky's first visit to Greece since 2023 follows the recent announcement of major energy projects in Greece, supported by the United States.Greek authorities plan to cooperate with US companies to increase the flow of American liquefied natural gas to Greek terminals.Greece is "the natural gateway for American liquefied natural gas to replace Russian gas in the region," Mitsotakis said at a conference this month in Athens hosted by the United States.The recent launch of a Trans-Adriatic pipeline connecting Greece and Bulgaria has enabled the country to contribute to a "vertical" corridor delivering gas towards Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Hungary and Slovakia.The opening of storage infrastructure at the port of Alexandroupolis, near the Greek-Turkish border and where American LNG arrives, has also helped undermine Russia's market in the region.

A Russian attack hit Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, killing four people and prompting power cuts in several regions, Ukrainian authorities said Saturday.Moscow has in recent months escalated attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine, damaging natural gas facilities which produce the main fuel for heating in the country.Experts have said Ukraine risks heating outages ahead of the winter months.“Russian strikes once again targeted people’s everyday life. They deprived communities of power, water, and heating, destroyed critical infrastructure, and damaged railway networks,” Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga said.Russia launched 458 drones and 45 missiles at Ukraine overnight, said the Ukrainian air force, adding that it had downed 406 drones and nine missiles.“In Dnipro, a Russian drone struck directly at a residential building; as of now, it is known that three people have died in the city. Sadly, there is also a fatality in Kharkiv,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said.Attacks forced emergency power cuts in the capital Kyiv and in the northern city of Kharkiv, authorities and energy company DTEK said.They also interrupted water supplies in Kharkiv, where the mayor said there was a “noticeable shortage of electricity.”There was no electricity, water, and partial heating in Kremenchuk, in the eastern Poltava region, the administration said.There were also significant train delays, Restoration Minister Oleksiy Kuleba said, accusing Russia of stepping up its attacks on locomotive depots.“We are working to eliminate the consequences throughout the country. The focus is on the rapid restoration of heat, light and water,” Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said.The attack was the ninth massive attack on gas infrastructure since early October, energy company Naftogaz said.Russia has targeted Ukraine’s power and heating grid throughout its almost four-year invasion, destroying a large part of the key civilian infrastructure.As with previous waves of attacks, Russia’s defence ministry said it struck “enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex and gas and energy facilities that support their operation.”The attacks on energy infrastructure have raised concerns of heating outages in Ukraine as the war enters its fourth winter.Kyiv’s School of Economics estimated in a report that the attacks shut down half of Ukraine’s natural gas production. Ukraine’s top energy expert, Oleksandr Kharchenko, told a media briefing Wednesday that if Kyiv’s two power and heating plants went offline for more than three days when temperatures fall below minus 10 degrees Celsius, the capital would face a “technological disaster”.Ukraine has in turn stepped up strikes on Russian oil depots and refineries in recent months, seeking to cut off Moscow’s vital energy exports and trigger fuel shortages across the country.On Friday evening, drone attacks on energy infrastructure in southern Russia’s Volgograd region caused power cuts there too, governor Andrei Botcharov said on Telegram.

OilCrude prices recovered from a midday dip on Friday on hopes Hungary can use Russian crude oil as US President Donald Trump met Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the White House.Brent crude futures settled at $63.63 while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $59.75. For the week, both benchmarks fell by around 2%.Hungary has maintained its reliance on Russian energy since the start of the 2022 conflict in Ukraine, prompting criticism from several European Union and Nato allies.Private reports also pointed to a weakening US labour market. US Labor Department employment reports are not being issued because of the government shutdown.Meanwhile, Opec+ decided on Sunday to increase output slightly in December. However, the group also paused further increases for the first quarter of next year, wary of a supply glut.GasAsian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices were flat this week, as ample supplies and soft demand kept a lid on gains.The average LNG price for December delivery into northeast Asia held at $11.10 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), industry sources estimated.**media[378974]**Spot charter rates have continued to rise, which has been the primary driver behind a wider spread between Asian and European prices, with Asian prices having to hold a larger premium to continue attracting the same flows, analysts said.In Europe, the Dutch TTF price settled at $10.57 per mmBtu, recording a weekly gain of 1.0%. Gas inventories in Europe have remained around 83%, as gas demand is still weak due to weather conditions, but LNG imports have remained high.This article was supplied by the Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah International Foundation for Energy and Sustainable Development.

One person was killed and six others were injured in the past 24 hours as a result of a Russian attack on Ukraine’s Donetsk region.The Ukrainian News Agency (Ukrinform) reported that a girl was injured in the town of Kramatorsk when a Russian drone crashed into a residential building.Since the start of the war on February 24, 2022, Russia and Ukraine have continued to exchange claims of repelling each other’s attacks, though these reports have not been independently verified due to the ongoing conflict.

Germany and Iceland have agreed to strengthen their military cooperation amid growing Russian threats. A memorandum of understanding signed in Reykjavik focuses on maritime logistics, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said during a meeting with Icelandic Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir. "Germany is, from my point of view, the leading force now in strengthening the security and defence of Europe," Gunnarsdottir said. She highlighted plans for closer cooperation with the German air force and navy, as well as joint efforts to defend against hybrid attacks and disruptions to internet communications. The German armed forces plan to establish a point of call on the volcanic island in the far north for warships, submarines and supply vessels.

The French navy was Wednesday on board a tanker from Russia's "shadow fleet" stationed off France, AFP journalists at the scene said, after data showed it was off the Danish coast last month during mysterious drone flights.The Boracay, a Benin-flagged vessel blacklisted by the European Union for being part of Russia's sanction-busting "shadow fleet" of ageing oil tankers, was stationed off Denmark from September 22 to 25, according to ship tracking data analysed by AFP.Drones have been sighted across Denmark, including over military sites, since September 22, prompting brief closures at several airports and a ban on all civilian drone flights until Friday.French military personnel were Wednesday on the deck of the tanker, now stationed off the coast of western France, AFP journalists who overflew the area said.A military source, asking not to be named, told AFP the vessel had been boarded on Saturday.A government source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP earlier the French navy had boarded the ship.President Emmanuel Macron earlier on Wednesday said France was probing the ship for "serious offences".But he stopped short of confirming reports of a connection to the Denmark drone flights."There were some very serious offences committed by this crew, which justify the current judicial procedure," Macron told reporters at an EU leaders' summit in Copenhagen.Built in 2007 and variously known as Pushpa and Kiwala, the Boracay has been anchored off Saint-Nazaire in western France for several days.According to the specialist website The Maritime Executive, the 244-metre vessel is suspected of being involved in mystery drone flights that disrupted air traffic in Denmark in September.The publication said the tanker and other ships could have been used either as launch platforms or as decoys.But when asked about those claims, Macron said he would "remain very careful", as it was not for him to establish a link between the Boracay and the drone flights.The French operation however underscored the importance of European efforts to stop the "shadow fleet" of vessels aiding Russia to circumvent Western sanctions.The European Union has sanctioned hundreds of ageing tankers used by Russia to circumvent oil export curbs imposed after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.Among them is the Boracay, which was blacklisted in February under the name Kiwala.The public prosecutor's office in the northwestern French city of Brest said it had opened an investigation following a report from the navy.The probe was launched over the crew's "failure to justify the nationality of the vessel" and "refusal to cooperate", Brest public prosecutor Stephane Kellenberger told AFP.The tanker left the Russian port of Primorsk outside Saint Petersburg on September 20 and was scheduled to arrive in Vadinar in northwestern India on October 20, according to data from the Marine Traffic tracking website.The French president said the "shadow fleet", estimated to include between "600 and 1,000 ships", was thought to represent "tens of billions of euros of Russia's budget" and make up "40 percent of the Russian war effort".

Russia and Belarus are rehearsing the launch of Russian tactical nuclear weapons as part of joint war games, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said Tuesday.State media quoted the Belarusian chief of staff as saying that the exercises also featured Russia's Oreshnik hypersonic missile, which it test-fired last year in the war with Ukraine.Russia and Belarus are ending five days of war games codenamed Zapad (West) in a show of force they say is to test combat readiness but which has unnerved some surrounding countries.Dressed in military attire, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with top military officials Tuesday in Russia's Nizhny Novogorod region, where some of the drills took place.Some 100,000 military personnel participated in the exercises, which involved roughly 10,000 pieces of military equipment, the Kremlin chief said in comments broadcast on state television.The drills were to ensure the "unconditional protection of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Union State," Putin said, referring to the alliance of Russia and Belarus.The war games, which Western military analysts say are designed to intimidate Europe, come just days after Polish and Nato forces say they shot down Russian drones that entered Polish airspace.Belarus, a close Russian ally which borders Ukraine and Russia, as well as Nato members Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons which Moscow retains command and control of.Lukashenko was cited by the Belarusian state news agency Belta as saying that it was only natural that the Russian tactical nuclear weapons were part of the Zapad drills."We are practising everything there. They (the West) know this too, we are not hiding it. From firing conventional small arms to nuclear warheads. Again, we must be able to do all this. Otherwise, why would they be on Belarusian territory?" he was quoted as saying."But we are absolutely not planning to threaten anyone with this."The Belarusian Defence Ministry confirmed in a statement that the use of tactical nuclear weapons had been rehearsed along with the deployment of Russia's intermediate-range Oreshnik ballistic missile that Moscow fired at Ukraine for the first time on November 21 last year.Putin said late last year that Russia could deploy Oreshniks, which he has claimed are impossible to intercept, on the territory of Belarus in the second half of 2025.Lukashenko, who holds regular talks with Putin, allowed Moscow to use his territory to enter Ukraine in February 2022, but has not committed his own troops to the fighting.US President Donald Trump has begun cultivating closer ties with Lukashenko, long treated as a pariah by the West, and relaxed some sanctions on Belarus last week in return for the release of 52 prisoners including political opponents.US military officers observed part of the Zapad exercise in Belarus on Monday.Russia's Defence Ministry said Tuesday that nuclear-capable Russian Tu-160 strategic bombers had rehearsed launching cruise missiles over the Barents Sea north of the Nordic countries.The bombers had flown over the Barents Sea's neutral waters for about four hours, escorted by MiG-31 fighter jets, it said.Separately, it said Marines belonging to Russia's Northern Fleet practised repelling an amphibious landing by an enemy force on a peninsula in Russia's Murmansk region.Video showed troops — backed by attack helicopters and fighter jets — using armoured personnel carriers, drones, rocket-propelled grenade launchers and automatic weapons — seeing off an imaginary enemy.Ships from Russia's Baltic Fleet — backed by fighter jets — test-fired cruise missiles at notional enemy ships, as did the fleet's land-based mobile missile launchers.In Russia's Kaliningrad exclave, troops practised using a Torn-MDM radio reconnaissance complex to detect the location of enemy forces so that their coordinates could be passed on to drone and artillery units.

Romania's Foreign Ministry on Sunday summoned the Russian ambassador to Bucharest over the entry of a Russian drone into its airspace during an attack on Ukraine. Romanian Foreign Minister Oana Toiu said that Russia's ambassador to Bucharest, Vladimir Lipaev, was summoned to the ministry and that Romania conveyed its strong protest against this act, adding that Moscow's actions pose a "new challenge" to Black Sea security.Earlier today, Romania strongly condemned the entry of a Russian drone into its airspace during an attack on neighboring Ukraine. The incursion comes days after Poland said it had shot down Russian drones that had violated its airspace.In a statement, Romania's defense ministry said it "strongly condemns the irresponsible actions of the Russian Federation and emphasizes that they represent a new challenge to regional security and stability in the Black Sea area."

The Russian Foreign Ministry condemned on Wednesday the Israeli aggression against Qatar, describing it as a flagrant violation of international law and the UN Charter.In a statement, the ministry urged all concerned parties to take a responsible approach and avoid actions that could lead to a deterioration of the situation in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict zone and complicate the search for a political settlement.The ministry stressed that Russia considers this incident a flagrant violation of international law and the UN Charter, an assault on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of an independent state, and a step that will lead to further escalation and destabilization of the situation in the Middle East.