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Around 270 bcm of approved or under construction LNG liquefaction capacity is currently in the pipeline to be commissioned by 2030, primarily driven by projects in the US and Qatar, according to International Gas Union (IGU).This marks a new growth phase following a prolonged period of stagnation, reflecting the inherently cyclical nature of the liquefaction sector, IGU said in its ‘Global Gas Report 2025’.These cycles are driven by the capital-intensive nature of projects – typically costing around $0.75bn per bcm – and long development timelines, often spanning four to five years from Final Investment Decision (FID) to operation.To manage market risk, developers usually secure most of their capacity through long-term contracts. Due to these factors, the LNG market is expected to remain broadly balanced, with limited opportunity for new developments in the short term and ample supply by 2030.Amid rising demand, there is indication of growing LNG supply reinforcing natural gas’ role as a reliable fuel to meet expected shortfalls, IGU noted.Despite tightness in the near term, the global LNG market is expected to gradually ease over the next few years, and move into surplus as new supply comes online toward 2030.According to IGU, uncertainty surrounding the timing of LNG supply persists despite the expected surge associated with the next wave of LNG projects.In October 2024, TotalEnergies revised its forecast, now anticipating that the next wave of LNG supply will only come to market from 2027, two-years after the previously projected 2025 timeline.The supply outlook remains uncertain due to potential delays as well as regulatory, technical and financial risks to projects. While there is a potential for increased project FIDs as a result of US import tariffs, policies such as the sanctions on Russian LNG are set to strike a blow to global LNG supply as upcoming projects’ ability to acquire necessary equipment, secure vessels and find buyers is becoming increasingly limited.Disruptions to key LNG transit routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, increase shipping times and costs, undermining project economics and investor confidence. This may lead to slower FIDs for projects dependent on long-distance or chokepoint-exposed routes.IGU noted gas has also proved itself a vital component of global energy security. LNG trade has historically offered cross-border flexibility to respond to shifting demand-supply dynamics during market uncertainties.For instance, the 2022-2024 European energy crisis following the reduction of Russian piped gas supply was stabilised using LNG imports from the US and Qatar.Similarly, East Asian countries like Japan and South Korea rely on spot LNG purchases to balance seasonal fluctuations, establishing natural gas and LNG as geopolitical tools for preventing deeper economic or social fallout through resilient and diversified supply, IGU said.

The biggest oil producer in the United Arab Emirates agreed to supply liquefied natural gas to Indian Oil Corp for 15 years as it lines up more binding contracts for a new export terminal.Abu Dhabi National Oil Co will provide 1mn tonnes of LNG annually to the Indian state-run entity, primarily from the under-construction project at Ruwais, according to a statement Wednesday.Adnoc, which had signed a preliminary agreement in September, also has a deal to supply an additional 1.2mn tonnes a year of the fuel from its Das Island operations to Indian Oil.The two deals will make the Indian company Adnoc’s biggest LNG customer by 2029, said the UAE firm, which is locking in long-term customers for its export capacity following agreements with buyers from Germany to Malaysia. For India, the deals will help its plan to ramp up the share of gas in the country’s energy mix by the end of this decade, even though infrastructure bottlenecks are constraining the expansion.The Ruwais project is expected to start commercial operations in 2028, which will more than double the company’s LNG capacity to 15 million tons a year, Adnoc said.The company has committed over 8mn tonnes a year of the project’s 9.6mn-tonnes-a-year capacity to international customers through long-term agreements.Adnoc Gas Plc said last year that it expects to acquire its parent Adnoc’s 60% stake in the Ruwais project at cost in the second half of 2028.

Qatar accounts for a significant share of GCC’s proven natural gas reserves, with 24.7tn cubic metres (tcm), making it the largest holder in the region and a global leader in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, according to a new report.The GCC collectively holds more than 40tcm of proven natural gas reserves, representing about 20% of the world’s total, Arthur D Little (ADL) said in a research note.Annual production volumes underscore the region’s strategic role: Qatar produces 211bn cubic metres (bcm), Saudi Arabia 124bcm, the UAE 56bcm, and Oman 54bcm, while Kuwait and Bahrain each produce 20bcm or less and rely heavily on imports to meet demand, the report noted.Historically, gas allocation decisions in the region have followed a straightforward logic: meet domestic power needs, support key industries, and fulfil export commitments.However, ADL’s research warns that without a more systematic approach, significant value could be left untapped. The Resource Utilisation Index (RUI) addresses this challenge by integrating five interlinked strategic dimensions into a single comparative score.It first considers EBITDA impact, measuring the true profitability generated per unit of gas and adjusting for opportunity cost to provide an accurate picture of financial value. It then evaluates GDP contribution, capturing the direct, indirect, and induced effects of gas use on national output, including multiplier effects across supply chains.Employment generation is assessed not only in terms of the number of jobs created, but also the quality of those jobs, their alignment with national workforce strategies, and their role in skills development.The economic complexity dimension examines how gas allocation supports diversification and industrial upgrading, favouring pathways that enable the production of more sophisticated, high-value exports. Finally, the framework factors in global market synergies, identifying sectors where gas utilisation can leverage trade partnerships, export readiness, and existing infrastructure to expand the region’s economic footprint.Energy-intensive industries illustrate the importance of this approach. In aluminium smelting, for example, energy can account for up to 40% of production costs, and overall energy usage can represent around 50% of total aluminium production costs.While access to affordable gas strengthens cost competitiveness, the RUI helps decision-makers weigh this against the potential value of redirecting the same gas to higher-return uses such as LNG exports or advanced petrochemicals.“The RUI is not about prescribing a single path for gas allocation. It’s about equipping decision-makers with the tools to make choices that align with national goals, economic diversification, and long-term resilience,” said Peter Kaznacheev, Principal at ADL Middle East. “By measuring profitability, economic impact, and strategic alignment in a single framework, we offer a holistic view of where gas delivers the greatest value.”The index can be tailored to national priorities by adjusting weightings across its five dimensions, and recalibrated as market conditions evolve or new industries emerge. Its applications range from helping governments set long-term planning objectives to enabling corporate planners and joint ventures to balance domestic requirements with export opportunities.Recent global trade turbulence – alongside regional industrial expansion – has reinforced the need for evidence-based allocation strategies.“With major producers like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman facing rising internal demand, and import-reliant states such as Kuwait and Bahrain under increasing supply pressure, the framework offers a unified lens for strategic gas deployment,” the research noted.“In a time of shifting global alignments and economic recalibration, the RUI empowers GCC nations to view gas not just as an energy source, but as a strategic lever for sustainable growth,” added Ilya Epikhin, Principal at ADL Middle East.By quantifying the economic, social, and strategic value of each cubic meter of natural gas, ADL’s RUI equips GCC leaders with the means to make allocation decisions that reinforce diversification, competitiveness, and resilience in a rapidly evolving energy landscape.

Market EyeQatar remains among the top three LNG exporters globally in the latest data released by Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).Last month, global LNG exports surged by 12% y-o-y (3.83mn tonnes) to reach 36.55mn tonnes, a "record high" for the month and the "strongest" annual growth rate since July 2019.The increase was driven by higher exports from both GECF Member Countries and non-GECF countries, which more than offset a decline in LNG re-exports.Between January and July 2025, global LNG exports rose by 5.0% y-o-y (11.93mn tonnes) to reach 249.66mn tonnes, largely supported by gains from non-GECF exporters, and to a lesser extent by GECF Member Countries and LNG re-exports.Non-GECF countries remained the largest exporters in July, with their market share rising to 55.2%, up from 53.1% a year earlier.In contrast, the shares of GECF Member Countries and LNG re-exports declined from 45.5% and 1.4% to 44.3% and 0.5%, respectively.In July, LNG exports from GECF member and observer countries rose by 8.7% y-o-y (1.30mn tonnes) to reach 16.20mn tonnes. At the country level, Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Malaysia, Mauritania, Nigeria, Peru, Qatar, Senegal, and Trinidad and Tobago contributed to the increase, offsetting a decline in exports from the United Arab Emirates.From January to July, GECF LNG exports grew by 1.8% year-on-year (1.99mn tonnes) to 113.59mn tonnes. The additional volumes were mainly driven by Angola, Mauritania, Nigeria, Qatar, Senegal and Trinidad and Tobago.In Algeria and Malaysia, reduced maintenance activities at the Arzew and Bintulu LNG facilities, respectively, supported the rise in exports.Additionally, higher feedgas availability boosted LNG exports from Equatorial Guinea, Malaysia, Nigeria, Peru and Trinidad and Tobago. The ramp-up of production from the GTA FLNG 1 facility in Mauritania/Senegal continued to support growing export volumes from both countries.Qatar’s LNG export growth was supported by production exceeding the nameplate capacity at the Ras Laffan liquefaction complex, GECF data show.Conversely, the decline in LNG exports from the United Arab Emirates was attributed to planned maintenance at the Das Island LNG facility.In July, non-GECF countries’ LNG exports surged by 16% y-o-y (2.82mn tonnes) to reach 20.18mn tonnes, which is the second highest monthly LNG exports after March 2025.The stronger LNG exports was driven by Australia, Canada, Mexico, and the US, which together offset weaker LNG exports from Norway.Between January and July 2025, non-GECF LNG exports grew by 7.9% (9.80mn tonnes) y-o-y to 134.03mn tonnes, supported by stronger LNG exports from Canada, Mexico and the US.Stronger LNG output from Gorgon and Ichthys—due to reduced maintenance—boosted Australia’s LNG exports, offsetting lower flows from North West Shelf caused by limited feedgas.In Canada and Mexico, rising exports were driven by ramp-ups at LNG Canada and Altamira FLNG 1, respectively.The US saw the largest non-GECF increase, led by surging volumes from Corpus Christi, Freeport, and Plaquemines. Corpus Christi and Plaquemines benefited from new train ramp-ups, while Freeport’s gains stemmed from reduced maintenance and debottlenecking that expanded production capacity.