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To President Donald Trump, the dollar is like a yo-yo that he can make go up and down. To equity investors, the toy looks broken — and a weaker dollar is now the latest obstacle they have to contend with when valuing stocks.The calculus is not easy, since a slumping dollar is hardly straight poison for the US stock market. Exporters will more readily find buyers, multinational companies will benefit from stronger overseas revenues.But it has drawbacks. American assets become less attractive, slowing the flow of funds into US companies and driving money to international markets. US manufacturers have to pay more for input materials produced abroad, potentially importing inflation for end products sold at home.The president insists he’s not worried about the dollar, no matter its latest slide — a comment that spooked forex traders and, eventually, led Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to reiterate the long-standing policy that Washington favours a strong currency. The greenback jumped Friday by the most since May, but still, it remains sharply lower than a year ago, and that has implications for equity traders.“Having a weakening dollar is a net negative for the US stock market,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management.He expects investors to reorient their portfolios to overweight export-oriented US stocks. And why not? Since the market bottomed on April 8, a Barclays Plc basket of companies that benefit from a weak dollar has soared 70% compared with 39% for the S&P 500. A basket of firms that benefit from a strong currency is up just 11%.The weak-dollar group includes Lam Research Corp, Freeport-McMoRan Inc and News Corp, all companies that get the bulk of revenues abroad. It’s up 8.1% just this month, as Bloomberg’s dollar index slid 1.3%. That bodes poorly for stocks like Dollar General Corp, Nucor Corp and Union Pacific Corp, which are among those that benefit from a strong greenback.The weak dollar is also sparking a rotation from US stocks into international equities, where returns in local currencies have starkly beaten American indexes.The S&P 500’s 1.4% gain in 2026 is not far behind the Stoxx Europe 600’s 3.2% gain. Factor in the dollar’s drop, though, and the US index is a bigger laggard. Europe’s benchmark is up 4.4%, stocks are 7.2% in Japan and an eye-popping 17% in Brazil.“There’s a lot of people both domestically in the US as well as internationally thinking about opportunities outside of the US because you’ll get the opportunity of a lower valuation and potentially the tailwind of currency on your side,” Zaccarelli said.The same dynamic played out last year, when many of those markets outperformed the S&P 500 in local currencies – and absolutely clobbered it when adjusted for the dollar.The relative performance can have a self-perpetuating effect. As overseas investors see their US holdings lose value in local currency terms, they become more inclined to pull money from American companies.“You want to own strengthening currencies,” said Michael Rosen, president and chief investment officer at Angeles Investment Advisors, which oversees nearly $47bn in assets.Dollar weakness is not all gravy for foreign markets, particularly for export-oriented economies like those in Taiwan and South Korea and Europe. Some of their biggest companies, like Samsung or Taiwan Semiconductor, may see margins crimped as local-currency revenues decline.Still, a softer greenback can act as a powerful macroeconomic tailwind as cheaper dollar funding eases global and local financial conditions, reducing the cost of capital for firms across the region. Key imports priced in dollars — from energy to raw materials — become cheaper, allowing companies to maintain or improve margins.“South Korea and Taiwan have traditionally been winners from dollar weakness,” said Gary Dugan, chief executive officer at Global CIO Office. “Singapore could benefit from capital flows as global investors seek strong currencies with yielding assets such as REITs.”Companies in the Stoxx 600 generate nearly 60% of their sales overseas, with many active in the US market, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. That compares with 15% to 28% for companies in the US, China and broader emerging market indexes.As a consequence, investors in European stocks have been picking companies that stay closer to home.“My strategy is to look at companies that produce locally and are not obliged to convert and repatriate earnings back,” said Gilles Guibout, portfolio manager at BNP Paribas AM. “Obviously, it’s also a strategy to favor domestic stocks that are little concerned by the fluctuation of the dollar.”An analysis by Citigroup strategists shows that a 10% rise in the euro versus the dollar could reduce European earnings per share by about 2%. Companies in the commodities, food and beverage, health-care, luxury goods and auto sectors are among the most exposed, they found.Importantly, a weak dollar is not determinative for stock prices or corporate earnings in the US. In the past 25 years, changes in the greenback and rolling annual per-share earnings growth in US stocks have had a correlation of just 0.04 on a quarterly basis, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.“Only sharp surges or selloffs in the dollar have historically mattered for index earnings,” BI analyst Nathaniel Welnhofer wrote.Arguably, stock investors are in a period of a sharp selloff — though the dollar advanced Friday after Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve. Bannockburn Capital Markets expects an 8% to 9% decline this year.A dollar rout of that magnitude is something traders haven’t had to grapple with in earnest for years. Washington’s official position since at least the 1980s has been that a strong currency is in the best interests of the US. Bessent reiterated that last week.Still, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has stumbled almost 10% since Trump’s inauguration, with currency traders souring on the greenback because of the administration’s actions. Trump has renewed tariff threats, ramped up pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and war-mongered to seek dominance of the Western hemisphere.“This is an administration that clearly wants a weaker dollar and the markets are going to give it to him,” Rosen said. 

The dollar struggled to bounce back Wednesday following another selloff fuelled by Donald Trump's suggestion he was happy with the currency's recent decline, while tech firms helped most Asian equity markets extend their rally.In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 closed up 0.1% to 53,358.71 points; Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index ended up 2.6% to 27,826.91 points and Shanghai - Composite closed up 0.3% to 4,151.24 points Wednesday.Traders are also keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve's latest meeting, hoping for some guidance on its plans for interest rates amid uncertainty over the US president's policies following his latest tariff threats.The greenback has retreated across the board this week following reports that the New York Fed had checked in with traders about the yen's exchange rate, which fuelled talk that US and Japanese officials were prepared to stage a joint intervention.That led to speculation the White House was prepared to let the dollar weaken, and Trump did little to dismiss that when asked Tuesday if he was worried about the decline."No, I think it's great," he told reporters in Iowa as the unit hit its weakest level against the euro in four-and-a-half years and a two-and-half-month low against the yen. "Look at the business we're doing. The dollar's doing great."He added: "I want it to be - just seek its own level, which is the fair thing to do."The dollar also sank against the pound, South Korean won and Chinese yuan, with a slight bump Wednesday doing little to recover its latest losses.Observers said unease about Trump's latest tariff outbursts, including threats against European nations over their opposition to his Greenland grab and a warning to Canada over its trade talks with China, have also dented faith in US assets and weighed on the unit.Meanwhile, US consumer confidence plunged to its lowest level since 2014, a survey showed, as households fret about inflation and the elevated cost of living.Win Thin, at Bank of Nassau 1982 Ltd, said: "Foreign exchange typically is the leader in terms of showing market discomfort with a country's policies and economic outlook, so this dollar weakness bears watching."Still, equity markets performed well in Asia after the S&P 500 clocked another record high in New York thanks to a surge in tech titans including Apple, Microsoft and Amazon.That helped Seoul to be among the best performers again -- hitting another all-time peak -- as chipmakers Samsung and SK hynix rallied.There were also big gains in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Taipei, Manila, Mumbai and Bangkok.Jakarta plunged more than eight percent - its heftiest fall in more than nine months -- after index compiler MSCI called on regulators to look into ownership concerns and said it would hold off adding Indonesian stocks to its indexes or increasing their weighting.The plunge saw market heavyweights including PT Bumi Resources and PT Petrosea lose around 15%.MSCI said "investors highlighted that fundamental investability issues persist due to ongoing opacity in shareholding structures and concerns about possible coordinated trading behaviour that undermines proper price formation".Sydney, Singapore and Wellington dipped.Traders are keeping a close watch on earnings this week from some of Wall Street's Magnificent Seven, with Microsoft, Meta, Tesla and Apple all reporting."These results will provide critical insights into the trajectory of the artificial intelligence trade," wrote Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG."After losing momentum in the final months of 2025 due to growing scrutiny over return on investment, capital expenditure and real-world constraints, the market is eager to see if the AI narrative can regain traction in 2026."Forward guidance will be key, alongside scrutiny of margins and capex projections."In company news, tech investment titan SoftBank jumped almost six percent after the Wall Street Journal reported it was in talks to pump an additional $30bn into ChatGPT developer OpenAI.That comes after it invested $22.5bn last month for an 11% stake. 

Traders in the $9.5tn-per-day currency markets are wagering on further losses in the dollar as US policy risks and a resurgent yen drag the world’s primary reserve currency to its weakest level in nearly four years.The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is logging its steepest four-day drop since President Donald Trump unveiled his sweeping tariffs in April, and investors are paying the highest price on record to hedge against a deeper selloff. The greenback was already on its back foot entering January, coming off its worst year since 2017.Triggered by unpredictable Washington policymaking, including Trump’s threats to take over Greenland, which have rattled European allies, the slide has propelled major peers to multi-year highs. Risks around the president’s pressure on the Federal Reserve, worries about the US fiscal outlook and its swelling debt load, and political polarisation are also eroding sentiment, market observers say.“You’re moving into a world where unconventional catalysts are driving the dollar weaker,” James Lord, Morgan Stanley’s head of emerging-markets currency strategy, told Bloomberg Television on Tuesday. The slump in the greenback echoes that seen early last year, Lord added, as “policy uncertainty” buffets investor appetite for US assets.The Bloomberg dollar gauge slid on Tuesday to its weakest mark since March 2022, fuelling gains in other global currencies. The euro and pound soared to their strongest levels in about four-and-a-half years. The yen also got a boost after Japanese officials offered further hints that they could intervene to support their currency, which is on track for a three-day rally, its best run since the implosion of global carry trades roiled markets in August 2024.The yen’s surge followed signs of US support to boost the yen, reopening speculation around the potential for co-ordinated currency intervention to guide the greenback lower against key trading partners. Reports from traders Friday indicated the Federal Reserve Bank of New York contacted financial institutions to check on the yen’s exchange rate — a preliminary step that’s often taken before interventions.That rate-checking of the dollar-yen rate by Fed officials “drove down the US dollar further,” George Catrambone, head of fixed income at DWS Americas, told Bloomberg Radio on Tuesday.The yen rallied as much as 1% to 152.57 on Tuesday in New York. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, speaking after a Group-of-Seven meeting Tuesday, affirmed that the government will take appropriate action against currency moves in close co-ordination with US authorities if needed.The drop in the dollar also buoyed the euro, which hit $1.1990, its strongest level since 2021. The pound rose 0.8% to $1.3791, also the highest since 2021, while the Swiss franc gained 1.4% to 0.7660 per dollar and trades at its strongest mark since 2015.An index of emerging-market currencies gained a fourth day. The gauge, which incorporates interest returns, is trading at the highest level on record.The dollar’s decline also comes against the backdrop of resilient global growth expectations, reflected in rising equity prices, that could spur investors to seek higher returns outside the US.“Washington’s protectionist pivot and diminished security commitments are spurring other nations to boost defence expenditure and sharpen their competitive focus, compressing the growth and interest rate differentials that previously favoured the greenback,” Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, wrote Tuesday.“Huge turnover in G-10 currency options this week supports the view that US dollar debasement is a theme which is gaining traction among investors. Whether or not the rate checks by the Federal Reserve are the start of a so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord, macro traders are deciding for themselves the US dollar is on a slippery slope,” says Mark Cranfield, Markets Live Strategist, Singapore.In options, the premium for short-dated contracts that profit from a weaker US currency reached the highest since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 2011. Bullish expectations for other currencies have also reached multi-month highs, near or on par with levels seen in the aftermath of the April tariff rolloutTrading volumes were heavy. On Monday, turnover through the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation hit the second-highest on record, surpassed only by April 3, 2025.“We see the risk premium on the dollar building up again,” Barclays analysts including Mitul Kotecha and Lhamsuren Sharavdemberel wrote Tuesday, citing the currency’s underperformance following Trump’s Greenland threats.The dollar has been cushioned in part by data from the US pointing to a solid economic performance, and traders anticipate the Fed will keep interest rates steady Wednesday. But markets are still pricing in nearly two quarter-point cuts this year, which is a contrast to many other major central banks where forecasts are for no change or even rate hikes.Trump’s pending choice for the next Fed chair has also buffeted the greenback, amid speculation the next head will be more biased to lower borrowing costs. There’s also the brewing risk of another federal shutdown to cloud investors’ perceptions around the government. Democrats have vowed to block a spending package in Congress unless Republicans strip funding for the Department of Homeland Security.“The follow-through dollar selling this week has been relentless and suggests this dollar move lower still has some legs,” said Win Thin, chief economist at Bank of Nassau. 

The dollar index fell Tuesday, nearing a four-month low, pressured by a stronger yen after two consecutive sessions of sharp gains.The yen stabilized around the 153–154 per dollar level, with the Japanese currency closing at 154.24 per dollar, some distance away from Friday’s low of 159.23.The euro was steady at $1.1878, having hit a peak of $1.19075 on Monday. Sterling similarly scaled a top of $1.37125 in the previous session and was last bought at $1.3678.The Australian and New Zealand dollars also held on to gains from the previous session and traded at $0.6914 and $0.5970, respectively.Against a basket of currencies, the dollar has fallen more than 1 percent so far in 2026. It was last at 97.05, having hit a four-month low of 96.808 on Monday.

The US dollar will slide against peers again in 2026 though the moves will be more muted than in 2025, according to Emirates NBD.The regional banking group expects the dollar will decline compared with peer currencies in 2026 as policy differentials increasingly move against it.Among major central banks, the Federal Reserve will stand out as still cutting policy while peers will either keep rates on hold or lean towards tighter policy, Emirates NBD said in a report.On the surface, the US dollar doesn’t look like a natural candidate to weaken. Growth in the US economy will be faster than all major peers in 2026, based on consensus projections, and inflation will also be materially higher.But a softening labour market is encouraging more dovish views from the Fed even amid the higher inflation environment.The researcher’s expectation is for another 75 bps of cuts from the Fed in 2026 compared with no change in policy from the European Central Bank and hikes from the Bank of Japan.Emirates NBD expects that the euro will extend its 2025 gains against the dollar in 2026 although the scale of appreciation will be far more muted.Economic activity in the eurozone remains sluggish — the regional economy expanded by just 1.4% year-on–year (y-o-y) in Q3-2025 — but that is a material improvement from the static levels of activity recorded in 2024.Inflation in the eurozone will remain relatively stable in 2026, close to target levels of around 2%. After cutting rates by 100 bps in 2025 the researcher does not expect that the ECB will cut rates any more in 2026, keeping the deposit facility at 2%.Several ECB policymakers have even been making a case that upside risks to growth may warrant the bank needing to actually hike rates though we are not expecting that to be an imminent change in direction.While the eurozone’s economy may not be showing signs of vigour, it does appear to be at least stable.Narrowing rate differentials will favour the euro in 2026 though the momentum on rates will be more to do with the Fed than the ECB or eurozone economic dynamics.The rearcher expects EURUSD will move from 1.17 at the end of 2025 to 1.21 by the end of 2026, an appreciation of about 3.4% compared with 13% gains in 2025.The Japanese yen looks the most likely candidate for strengthening in 2026 though near-term political noise means that any gains could be delayed until later in the year.Economic activity will decelerate markedly in 2026 as trade and investment cool. But in an effort to restore some growth and inflation momentum, Japan’s new government has approved a large stimulus package worth a total of $135bn in direct and indirect support measures, the report said. 

The Federal Reserve confronts an unusual, perhaps unprecedented, combination of powerful economic forces operating in often conflicting ways.The division between interest rate hawks and doves is not the only issue.In the weeks running up to this week’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve, there has been an unusually volatile change of expectations. The assessed probability of a further quarter-point interest rate cut, to follow those in September and October, swung from a high of 90% to a low of 30% and back up to 90%. The 25 bps reduction is widely expected, taking it to 3.75-4.0%. The central banks of the Gulf Co-operation Council will duly reduce their base rates by the same amount consequently, in line with the policy of pegging currencies to the US dollar.The uncertainty in the markets reflects an unusual combination of policy challenges. The Fed has twin objectives: Supporting the labour market and controlling prices, and sometimes the two objectives are in conflict. This partly explains the divisions within the Federal Reserve: Both sides have strong arguments. Indeed, the discussion prior to the October interest rate decision was split three ways: Most were in favour of a quarter-point cut, with one vote for holding interest rates, and one vote for a half-point reduction.Since the 2008 financial crash, there has been a perceptible bias in Fed policy towards permitting liquidity, to prevent a recession, but this does come with a risk not only of inflation, but high levels of leverage, risk-taking and elevated asset prices.There has been some balance, and in June 2022 the Federal Reserve began a sustained policy of quantitative tightening (QT), reversing the easing policy (QE) that had predominated since 2008. The policy has been to tighten gradually and moderately, by not replacing expiring bonds with fresh purchases by the central bank. The chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has signalled that QT is now coming to an end. The new policy is one of ‘ample reserves’ – central bank purchases of government bonds at the same rate as that of GDP growth, whereas for a full QE policy it would be at a higher rate.Nonetheless, this is a significant easing of policy. One objective is to ease the cost of Government deficits, still running at 6% of GDP with no sign of falling, even as the debt climbs above the 100% mark. So far, the policy has been effective, and yields on US government debt have fallen.The bias towards liquidity has some merit, but in practice it encourages tendencies towards high levels of short-term leverage for long-term ventures, and it raises the level of interest rate needed for inflation to be curbed. This year has witnessed what has been dubbed an ‘everything rally’ in which risk stocks and defensive investments have risen in tandem – tech stocks, crypto, bond prices and gold. Historically they would be inversely correlated.It appears to be a benign combination, but there are risks, and it is one of the factors that makes policy making unusually challenging. There is a market expectation that the Fed will always come to the rescue with additional liquidity – lower interest rates and/or quantitative easing. But it cannot always oblige, and it is unhealthy for investors to become reliant on this sugar rush. There are indications that the market is expecting, or hoping for, a succession of further interest rate cuts in 2026 – perhaps as many as four. They may be disappointed, and it would be unwise to base investment strategies on this expectation.One of the causes of the fluctuating expectations is a factor beyond the control of the Fed: lack of data. The prolonged Government shutdown meant an extended period of time without accurate, national-level economic indicators. The jobs report for October was not released at all, and the November figures will be available after the 9-10 December meeting – at which the most recent official employment statistics will be for September.On balance, from the regional and private sector sources from which data is available, the jobs market is struggling. Meanwhile, inflation is above the target rate but not excessively, so a quarter point reduction this month is a reasonable policy.There are other dynamics, and there are no easy decisions. The AI investment boom may be justified by consequent productivity gains across the economy, but it is a big bet with a risk of substantial stock market falls if the gains fall below expectations. Moreover, the boom has played a significant role in maintaining short-term consumer demand, as a high proportion of households are invested in the stock market. So any losses would spread through the economy. Outside the tech sector, economic growth is sluggish, although company and household balance sheets are healthy.And the AI revolution may have some negative impacts on employment levels – it may bring about a jobless recovery if productivity gains are substantial.Next year could see some formidable challenges: If AI adoption and productivity gains are not sufficient to justify the huge investment in AI infrastructure, and if the end of QT unleashes excessive exuberance in leverage and asset prices. A further unknown is the individual who replaces Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve when his term ends in May. A chair who is keen to support President Donald Trump’s preference towards low interest rates and high asset prices could help fuel economic recovery, or introduce excessive risk. The President has indicated he will announce the appointee early in 2026. The individual is rumoured to be Kevin Hassett, an economic adviser to President Trump.The policy combination is, at least nominally, pro-growth. But the inflationary risks are not negligible. Stagflation and market falls are also possibilities.The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions. 

Global bond investors are beginning to view select emerging markets as safer than many far richer nations, a momentous shift that’s setting the stage for the next phase of outperformance in the asset class.The trend is most evident in the sovereign and corporate securities from AA-rated countries like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Taiwan, South Korea and Czech Republic. They have delivered stronger total returns this year than equally rated developed-world credits, in dollars as well as in local currencies. And for some of these nations, dollar borrowing costs are slipping toward those of the US, long considered the safest market of all.What’s more, there are signs of a broader risk convergence, one that’s encompassing even economies with lower credit scores.The outperformance stems to a large extent from the progress that swathes of the developing world have made in cutting debt, taming inflation and improving current-account balances. But it’s also down to unprecedented fiscal backsliding in the Group of Seven industrialised nations, where debt-to-output ratios are set to rise for years more, eroding their safe haven status.“If I want fiscal conservatism and policy orthodoxy, I go to the emerging-market world currently, not developed markets,” said James Athey, a portfolio manager at Marlborough Investment Management.He’s upped emerging-debt allocations, buying Mexican peso debt, in addition to Chilean local bonds and South African dollar-denominated securities.In terms of annual bond gains, 2025 is set to be the strongest year in emerging markets since before the pandemic.In the sovereign dollar-debt market, investors now demand the smallest premium in seven years over Treasuries. For AA-rated issuers, that spread has shrunk to a record 31 basis points. And since late 2024, average local-currency debt yields have been below Treasury rates, with the discount widening to a record this August. China, Thailand, Malaysia and Lithuania are among countries that borrow at lower rates at home than the US can.To be clear, the emerging-market universe contains many fragile credits, mostly in Africa and Latin America, where debt distress and political instability are constant risks. Only a handful of sovereigns carry AA ratings — too few for investors to deploy meaningful capital. Investors also tend to treat developing countries as a group, selling indiscriminately when sentiment sours, and dumping strong credits with the weak.And much of this year’s outperformance is down to dollar weakness and lower US interest rates. That’s re-ignited the carry trade, luring capital to high-yielding markets like Lebanon and Argentina. And finally, factors such as longer bond duration and lower new debt supply have also helped.For all that, there’s a palpable shift underway: Instead of merely seeking carry, many investors say they are committing to emerging markets because key macro fundamentals are flipping in their favour.For instance, inflation has fallen below advanced-economy levels — a rare reversal seen only once in the past 35 years — even as central banks keep interest rates an average 2.1 percentage points above developed-market levels.The advantage extends to external and fiscal fronts too. While emerging economies, on average, run current-account surpluses, richer nations sit in deficit. Budget gaps are similar across both groups, but growth in developing nations is far stronger, with output expected to expand about 2.5 percentage points faster this year.“It’s ironic that EMs, once seen as serial defaulters, are now the ones with primary surpluses and inflation under control, while developed markets are running persistent fiscal deficits,” said Marco Ruijer, a fund manager at William Blair.Nowhere is the change as stark as in the US, where President Donald Trump’s trade and taxation policies are forecast to significantly expand US deficits. Government debt now tops 100% of annual output, the US budget deficit equates to almost 6% of GDP, and annual debt-servicing costs surpassed $1tn for the first time ever.“If someone didn’t tell you the country and they showed you the US metrics, you wouldn’t want to touch that with a 10-foot pole, it’s so horrible,” said Erik Weisman, a fund manager at $660bn MFS Investment Management. “You could say something similar about the UK or France.”Weisman runs a developed-market portfolio but is using his flexible mandate to buy high-grade emerging debt at the expense of G-10 peers.Recent months have brought several examples of risk convergence with the US. In October, investors accepted a yield premium of 17 basis points over Treasuries for South Korea’s five-year dollar bonds, a record low.And no wonder: The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected at 55% this year — half the G7 average — and it’s running a 6% current-account surplus. LINKSimilarly, Abu Dhabi sold 10-year bonds at 18 basis points over Treasuries — the tightest spread ever for that maturity in emerging markets. And China priced its three-year dollar sale bang in line with Treasuries, erasing the premium investors had demanded last year.That some emerging bonds now trade flat or inside similar-duration Treasuries is a sign there’s real demand for diversification, according to Nick Eisinger, head of EM sovereign strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management.“High-quality EM countries have been structurally improving for years, and the market is finally waking up to it,” Eisinger said. 

The US dollar is heading for its biggest weekly drop in four months, as trading volumes shrink because of the US Thanksgiving holiday - pushing traders to focus on next year's outlook, while the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) appears to be the only party likely to take interest-rate-cut steps.In currency markets, the Japanese yen rose 0.4 percent to 155.87 per dollar in Asian trading, while the euro climbed above USD 1.16.The New Zealand dollar also rose to a three-week high of USD 0.5728, gaining about 2 percent, while the Australian dollar strengthened after inflation data that came in higher than expected.The Chinese yuan stood at 7.08 per dollar, while the British pound reached its highest level since late October at USD 1.3265, heading for its biggest weekly rise since last August.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index - which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of major currencies - was steady at 99.433 points, after retreating from its six-month high reached a week earlier, and is heading toward its largest weekly drop since July. 

The Japanese yen’s renewed weakness is testing the patience of policymakers in Tokyo and unnerving investors.The currency fell to 154.79 against the dollar on November 12, its lowest level in around nine months, following recent declines largely prompted by the emergence of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s new leader. Takaichi’s focus on boosting economic growth has fuelled expectations she will be reluctant to prod the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates — a move that would support the yen.If the central bank waits longer to increase borrowing costs, the government may be forced to wade into currency markets to prop up the yen. Officials have indicated they are keeping a close eye on currency market movements, a typical first step before direct intervention.While Japan is committed to international pacts that stipulate markets should determine exchange rates, the Group of 20 has acknowledged that excessive or disorderly currency moves can threaten economic and financial stability, giving members wiggle room to intervene when volatility spikes. Japanese officials insist it is sharp or disorderly movements — not any specific exchange-rate threshold — that trigger intervention.The question now is how far — or how quickly — the yen needs to fall before Tokyo steps in to protect it.Why is the yen’s weakness cause for concern?While the yen’s slide over the past decade or so has transformed Japan into an affordable travel destination for millions of foreign tourists and boosted the profits of the nation’s biggest exporters, its weakness has become acute.For an economy heavily dependent on imported energy and raw materials, the feeble yen drives up costs, fuelling inflation for households and squeezing margins for domestically focused businesses. The resulting cost-of-living crunch has already helped bring down two prime ministers.There’s another reason why Japan’s government may want to act. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticised Japan for its weak currency, arguing it gives Japanese manufacturers an unfair trade advantage. That’s a point that came up in trade negotiations between the two nations.What is currency intervention?When a country’s central bank steps into the foreign exchange market with the intention of strengthening or weakening its currency, that’s known as direct intervention.In Japan’s case, the Finance Ministry decides when to act and the BOJ carries out the operation via a limited number of commercial banks. Japan will either buy yen or sell dollars to strengthen the local currency or sell yen and buy dollars to weaken it. The scale of the transactions depends on how much impact the ministry seeks and how quickly the market reacts.Where does the money come from?When Japan intervenes to prop up the yen, the dollars typically come from its foreign reserves in the form of cash or US Treasury holdings. As of the end of October, Japan had $1.15tn in foreign currency. During last year’s interventions, for example, Japan appeared to sell some US Treasuries from its reserves to help finance the action.How effective is currency intervention?Intervention is a clear way for the government to tell speculators it won’t allow its currency to go into free fall or rocket up. However, it only offers a temporary fix unless economic fundamentals driving the trend are also addressed. In addition, foreign reserves are generally there to protect the economy in the event of a major financial shock or unexpected event, not to artificially prop up the currency. A unilateral move is still seen as unlikely to turn the tide of currency momentum, but it can buy time until market dynamics change.How often does Japan intervene in its currency market?Japan has exchanged vast amounts of money over the years — usually to weaken the yen. But recent intervention has been in the opposite direction. The government spent a total of almost $100bn on yen-buying to prop up the currency in 2024. On each of the four occasions the exchange rate was around 160 yen per dollar, setting that level as a rough marker for where action might take place again.To keep traders guessing, officials often don’t immediately confirm an intervention. But the ministry discloses the amount spent on intervention at the end of each month. Generating doubt and fear of losses in the market is part of the ministry’s strategy, making the comments of officials highly potent.What is verbal intervention?To keep traders on guard and slow movements in markets, senior officials can make remarks that hint at the prospect of intervention and bloody noses for market players. Comments by the finance minister or the ministry’s top currency official can quickly scare speculators. Officials typically use a carefully calibrated set of expressions to ratchet up their warnings and show how close they are to moving. References to “taking action” suggest intervention is close.What are the flow-on effects of monetary intervention?When Japan’s authorities intervene in currency markets, the immediate impact is typically sharp. Past episodes show the yen jumping around 2 yen against the dollar within seconds and 4 to 5 yen within hours.These abrupt swings can cause huge losses for traders making speculative bets that the currency will keep moving in the previous direction. Sharp moves can also cause headaches for businesses trying to price goods, make payments and hedge against exchange rate fluctuations.For the government, intervention also carries political and diplomatic risks. It can draw criticism for currency manipulation, especially when intervention is aimed at weakening the yen, a direction that can help exporters with trade. That charge is harder to argue when Tokyo acts to support the yen.What is the US stance on a weak yen?Trump accused Japan’s leaders of guiding the yen lower to gain a competitive advantage in early March and said tariffs were the solution. Japan remains on the US Treasury Department’s “monitoring list” for foreign-exchange practices after posting trade and current account surplus against US, but doesn’t fulfil all the conditions to be characterised as a currency manipulator.Tokyo and Washington issued a joint statement in September, in which the two finance chiefs reaffirmed that intervention “should be reserved for dealing with excess volatility or disorderly movements” and not for competitive advantage. Still, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on October 7 said Japan’s government needed to give the central bank space to manage volatility — comments seen as a warning against excessive weakness in the yen.Any intervention would take place after prior notice to the US and if it ended up strengthening the yen, it may be tacitly welcomed by the Trump administration.

The US dollar index, which measures the performance of the US currency against the euro, the British pound, the yen, and three other major currencies, stabilized at 100.18 after rising to 100.25, its highest level since August 1. Both the Japanese yen and the US dollar attracted strong demand as safe-haven assets amid heavy selling in stocks, particularly technology shares on Wall Street, which extended to Asian markets.The yen rose by about 0.2% to 153.42 per dollar, continuing the gains of 0.7% it recorded on Tuesday. At the same time, the dollar was steady at 1.1483 against the euro after rising 0.3% in the previous session to reach a seven-month-high.The British pound stabilized at $1.3016 after falling 0.9% yesterday. The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.1% to $0.5635 after a 1.2% decline yesterday, touching its lowest level in seven months. It also fell to 1.1512 against the Australian dollar following labor market data, a level not seen since October 2013.The Australian dollar dropped 0.2% to $0.6476.

The US dollar index edged lower on Wednesday after a three-day rally, as the greenback retreated during Asian trading amid market volatility triggered by a sharp fall in gold prices, which rebalanced flows across safe-haven assets. The dollar was last down 0.1% at 151.74 yen, after data showed that Japan's exports rose in September for the first time in five months. The dollar index, which measures the performance of the US currency against six major peers, stood at 98.84, down 0.1%. The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1613, while the pound sterling was steady at $1.3379. The Australian dollar gained 0.2% to $0.6503, and the New Zealand dollar also advanced 0.2% to $0.5753.

The dollar took a breather on Thursday after a strong run this week that has put it on track for its best performance in nearly a year, helped by a weak yen that has struggled amid a change of guard in Japan's ruling party. The Japanese currency was last a touch stronger at 152.49 per dollar, after having slid to an eight-month low of 153 per dollar overnight. The euro is also under pressure due to the escalating political crisis in France following the shocking resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his government, although French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to appoint a new prime minister within 48 hours. The moves in the yen and the euro have in turn provided support for the dollar, which is up more than 1% for the week. Sterling rose 0.07% to $1.3413, after having touched a roughly two weeks previous session, while the Australian dollar was last up 0.11% at $0.6594. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.1 % to $0.5792, after falling in the previous session following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 50 basis point interest rate cut. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was little changed at 98.77.