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Opec+ is likely to agree another symbolic production increase for June, in the group’s first move since the surprise departure of the United Arab Emirates, three delegates said.Seven major nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will probably add 188,000 barrels a day to their output target during a video conference on Sunday, two of the delegates said, even though they’d be unable to implement it with the Strait of Hormuz blocked. The Opec+ delegates asked not to be identified as any deliberations are private.The group is continuing the process — at least on paper — of restoring output halted several years ago, which had been in progress before the outbreak of war. Opec+ is adjusting to the surprise loss of long-time member the UAE, which quit the organization on Tuesday after years of frustration over constraints on its output.The Iran war has effectively closed Hormuz, forcing exporters around the Arabian Gulf to shutter vast swathes of output. Raising quotas now could be useful later, when the conflict ends and countries revive production. Reuters first reported the potential output increase by Opec+ on Wednesday.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the UAE’s decision to leave Opec won’t lead to an imminent price war since the Iran conflict has throttled producers’ ability to unleash supplies, according to a report by Interfax. With Emirati officials already signaling plans to boost production, there’s concern that the country’s exit could eventually set the stage for a rush for market share. 

Global oil ‌glut predictions are seriously exaggerated ‌as demand growth ‍remains strong and global oil stocks are ⁠depleted, Amin Nasser, chief executive ⁠of Aramco, the world's biggest ‍oil producer, said on Thursday.Oil prices have traded above $60 per barrel for most of 2025 with analysts predicting a decline in 2026 as they expect global supply to exceed ‌demand by a big margin due to production growth from the US, ‍Opec+ and other ⁠producers.Demand growth ‌remains strong in emerging economies followed by China and the US with total demand reaching record levels last year and rising again this year, Nasser told reporters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos."Oil glut predictions are seriously ​exaggerated... Oil stocks ‌are low across the world on a five-year ⁠average and barrels ‍offshore are mostly sanctioned barrels," he said.The world is also short of spare oil capacity or unused oil production that countries can activate ​in case of an emergency to avert price spikes."It (spare capacity) is at 2.5% and we need a minimum of 3%. If Opec+ further unwinds cuts, spare capacity will fall even further and we will need to ⁠watch this very carefully," said Nasser. 

A new mechanism adopted by OPEC+ to assess members' maximum output capacity will ultimately help to stabilise markets and reward those who invest in production, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has said.The OPEC+ group approved the mechanism to assess members' maximum production capacity to be used for setting baselines from 2027, against which their output targets are set, Opec said on Sunday.Prince Abdulaziz said the mechanism was "fair and transparent" for determining production levels."Now we have the most detailed, the most technical, transparent approach of how we can move forward in the future in managing the market and how to attend to production", he said."Sunday was probably one of the most successful days in my personal career and I am very grateful and thankful for the support of our friends in Russia," he said during the launch of a Saudi-Russian business forum in Riyadh.The meetings on Sunday of OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, also agreed to leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026.The evaluation of members' maximum production capacity is scheduled to take place between January and September 2026, according to sources following the meetings, allowing for 2027 output quotas to be set."It will also be a mechanism that will reward those who invest and those who believe there is growth, and would put us in the lead amongst the other producers," Prince Abdulaziz said.OPEC+ has been discussing the production capacity and quotas issue for years in talks that had proved difficult because some members such as the United Arab Emirates have increased capacity and want higher quotas.Other members such as African countries have seen declines in production capacity but are resisting quota cuts. Angola quit the group in 2024 over a disagreement about its production quotas. 

The global oil market faces an even bigger surplus next year of as much as 4.09mn barrels per day as Opec+ producers and rivals lift output and demand growth slows, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.The outlook from the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, is the latest warning that the oil market is heading for oversupply. A surplus of 4.09mn bpd would be equal to almost 4% of world demand, and is much larger than other analysts’ predictions.“Global oil market balances are looking increasingly lopsided, as world oil supply is forging ahead while oil demand growth remains modest by historical standards,” the IEA said in its monthly report.Opec+, or the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, has been boosting output since April. Other producers, such as the US and Brazil, are also increasing supply, adding to glut fears and weighing on prices.Oil prices edged higher to around $63 a barrel after the IEA report to recoup some of the 2% drop on Wednesday after Opec shifted its 2026 outlook to a small surplus, having earlier seen a sizeable deficit.Global oil supply will grow by around 3.1mn bpd in 2025, and 2.5mn bpd next year, each up by around 100,000 bpd on the month, the IEA said.Supply is rising faster than demand in the IEA’s view even after upward revisions on Thursday. The agency now expects oil demand to rise by 770,000 bpd next year, up 70,000 bpd from last month, citing increased needs in petrochemical plants.The short-term outlook in the IEA’s monthly report contrasts with the agency’s annual outlook on Wednesday, which sees global oil and gas demand potentially rising until 2050.Opec sees a surplus of just 20,000 bpd next year according to Reuters calculations based on its own monthly oil market report on Wednesday, although this marks a further retreat from its forecast of a sizeable deficit.Global oil output was 6.2mn bpd higher in October than at the start of this year, divided evenly between Opec+ and non-Opec producers, the IEA said. Top Opec producer Saudi Arabia contributed 1.5mn bpd of the increase, while Russia added just 120,000 bpd amid sanctions and Ukrainian attacks.Russian oil exports have continued largely unabated despite new US sanctions on Russian firms Rosneft and Lukoil, which still may have the most far-reaching impact yet on global oil markets, the IEA said.The IEA added that new entities have already started handling Russian exports as it adapts to sanctions. In October, companies MorExport, RusExport and NNK, which have only been active since May, lifted around 1mn bpd of Russian crude and fuels, it said.The Paris-based IEA also drew attention to a sharp rise in global oil inventories, which rose to their highest since July 2021 in September at just under 8bn barrels.The increase was driven by a sharp increase in waterborne oil in storage, which rose by 80mn barrels in September.Preliminary October data shows further rises for global stocks, again driven by increasing waterborne barrels, the agency added.

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Monday after OPEC+ announced a pause in output hikes during the first quarter of 2026, reflecting a cautious stance amid ongoing demand uncertainty. Brent Crude gained 0.47% to trade at $65.24 per barrel, after closing $0.07 higher on Friday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 0.45% to $61.43 per barrel. During an online meeting on Sunday, eight OPEC+ member states agreed to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day in December 2025, consistent with the increases implemented in October and November. The group subsequently announced a pause on further output hikes for January, February, and March 2026, citing "seasonality" and typically weaker demand during the first quarter. Both Brent and WTI fell by more than 2% in October, marking their third consecutive monthly decline and hitting their lowest levels in five months on October 20, amid concerns about oversupply and economic uncertainty linked to potential US tariff measures.

Oil prices declined on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous two sessions, due to OPEC's plans to increase output, which outweighed optimism about a potential trade deal between the United States and China.Brent Crude futures dropped by four cents to $65.58 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by nine cents to $61.22 a barrel.Russia's Lukoil, the country's second-largest oil producer, announced its plans to sell its international assets following US sanctions.The United States announced last week a round of sanctions on Russia related to the oil sector.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement that sanctions were imposed on Russia's two largest oil companies, attributing the move to Moscow's refusal to end the war in Ukraine. He added that the sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil were due to their financing of Russia's war machine.US President Donald Trump seeks to bring an end to the conflict that began when Moscow launched its military operation in Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.

Oil prices rose nearly 1% on Wednesday as investors shrugged off concerns about oversupply after digesting a decision earlier by OPEC+ to limit production increases next month. Brent Crude futures gained 63 cents, or 0.96%, to $66.08 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 66 cents, or 1.07%, to $62.39. The benchmarks had settled broadly flat in the previous session as traders weighed signs of a potential supply glut against the smaller-than-expected output increase announced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies.

Oil prices climbed around 1% at Monday's close after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production increase for November, easing some supply concerns. However, weak demand outlooks may limit further gains in the near term. Brent Crude futures rose by 94 cents, or 1.46%, to settle at $65.47 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 81 cents, or 1.33%, to $61.69. OPEC+ said on Monday it would raise oil output by 137,000 barrels per day in November—the same increase that applied in October—amid ongoing concerns about oversupply.

Oil prices slipped nearly 1% on Monday after Iraq’s Kurdistan region resumed crude oil exports, and as OPEC+ plans another oil output hike in November. Brent crude futures fell 63 cents, or 0.90%, to $69.50 a barrel, after settling at their highest level since July 31 on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $65.07 a barrel, down 65 cents, or 0.99%, giving back most of Friday’s gains. Both Brent and WTI rose more than 4% last week, marking their biggest weekly gains since June.

Oil prices climbed in early trade on Monday, trimming some of last week's losses, after OPEC+ agreed to slow the pace of output increases from October amid expectations of weaker global demand. Brent Crude gained 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $65.84 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 30 cents, or 0.5%, to $62.17 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell more than 2% on Friday as a weak US jobs report dimmed the outlook for energy demand. They lost more than 3% last week. Under the new OPEC+ decision, eight member countries will lift production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in October, far below the monthly increases of about 555,000 bpd for September and August, and 411,000 bpd in July and June.

Iraq hopes fellow producers will reconsider its oil export quota to better reflect its production capacity, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said Saturday, a day ahead of an Opec+ meeting in a rare public comment by a senior Iraqi official.Iraq, the group's largest overproducer, is under pressure from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut output to compensate for having produced more than its agreed volume.It is among countries that submitted plans in April to make further oil output cuts to compensate for pumping above agreed quotas.Iraq's oil exports averaged 3.38mn barrels per day in August, according to the oil ministry. September average oil exports are expected to be between 3.4mn bpd and 3.45mn, the chief of the state oil company SOMO said on Saturday.Opec counts oil flows from Kurdistan as part of Iraq's quota.Al-Sudani previously appealed publicly for a review of Iraq's production quota in late 2022.Opec+, which includes Opec members plus Russia and other allies, has reversed its strategy of output cuts from April and has already raised quotas by some 2.5mn barrels per day, about 2.4% of world demand.The move is intended to boost market share and follows pressure from US President Donald Trump to lower oil prices.Eight countries from Opec+ are set to meet online today to consider a further output hike.Another output boost would mean Opec+, which pumps about half of the world's oil, would be starting to unwind a second layer of cuts of about 1.65mn barrels per day, or 1.6% of world demand, more than a year ahead of schedule.Responding to a question about Sunday's meeting, Iraq's Opec representative Ali Nazar said attention was focused on balancing the market, whether through increases, maintaining current production, or cuts.Separately, al-Sudani also said there would be arrangements to facilitate the entry of major oil companies to Iraq.In the past two years, Iraq has signed agreements with oil majors that had previously retreated from the country, including Chevron, France's TotalEnergies and UK oil major BP.

OilOil prices fell on Friday as a weak US jobs report dimmed the outlook for energy demand, while swelling supplies may grow further after Opec and allied producers meet over the weekend. Brent crude futures settled at $65.50 a barrel, down $1.49. US WTI crude finished at $61.87, down $1.61.On Wednesday, Reuters reported that eight Opec+ producers would consider raising production further at a meeting on Sunday. US crude inventories rose 2.4mn barrels last week, rather than falling as analysts expected. US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 22,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 79,000 in July, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday.The weak jobs report will put pressure on the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Expectations are growing that Opec+ – the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia – will decide at Sunday's meeting to push more barrels into the market to regain market share.The group would be starting to unwind a second layer of output cuts of about 1.65mn barrels per day, or 1.6% of world demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump told European leaders on Thursday that Europe must stop buying Russian oil. Any cuts to Russia's crude exports or other disruption to supplies could push oil prices higher.GasAsian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices held steady last week as regional demand remained muted, while a gas supply deal between Russia and China is seen curbing future LNG shipments from the top Asian importer.Industry sources estimated that the average LNG price for October delivery into Northeast Asia was $11.30 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), up slightly from $11.15 per mmBtu the previous week. Meanwhile, following the first unloading of an LNG cargo from Russia's sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project in China, Beijing and Moscow this week signed agreements to increase gas supply via the existing Power of Siberia pipeline, and to construct the Power of Siberia 2, though they have yet to agree on pricing.China is sending a clear geopolitical signal that it is willing to receive more Russian gas, reducing LNG dependency from other sources from 2027 and influencing the profitability of other LNG producers. In Europe, the Dutch TTF hub settled at $11.02 per mmBtu, recording a weekly gain of 2.6%. Continued supply growth from the US helped to offset the decline seen from Nigeria. This also comes at a time where imports into Europe have seen slight declines as subsided heatwaves and easing fears over storage added further bearish tailwinds into the market. The US arbitrage to Northeast Asia via the Cape of Good Hope narrowed significantly last week, only marginally incentivising US cargo deliveries to Europe.This article was supplied by the Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah International Foundation for Energy and Sustainable Development.