Reuters/New Delhi
India yesterday forecast normal rains for the 2011 monsoon, strengthening the prospects of a plentiful farm output that could help bring relief to Asia’s third-largest economy in its battle with high prices.
Women walk on a foot bridge as it rains in Srinagar yesterday. Five people from a family of six were killed and several houses were damaged as rains coupled with flash floods and thunderstorms continue to wreak havoc across Kashmir. Continuous rains for the past one week have created a flood-like situation in different parts of the state. India yesterday forecast normal rains for the 2011 monsoon, strengthening the prospects of a plentiful farm output
Rainfall is likely to be 98% of the long-term average, Earth Sciences Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal told reporters, adding that the forecast would be reviewed in June when the monsoon, which irrigates 60% of Indian farms, arrives.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government, which was voted to power largely on rural support, has struggled with double-digit inflation for most of its second term.
A good monsoon would be able to do what repeated raising of central bank rates has failed to do - cool off inflation.
Good rains could not only help instil investor confidence in an economy projected to grow at about 9% in 2011/12 but also boost food output in one of the world’s top consumers and producers of a range of agricultural commodities, potentially helping Asian governments to battle food inflation.
“Normal monsoon will bring some optimism that food inflation can be contained with higher food grain production,” said Harish Galipelli, vice-president of JRG Wealth Management.
“Kharif (summer sown) crop is bigger in the country, and a normal monsoon will help. But any deviation in the monsoon rains may not be good news for the economy.”
A failed monsoon could force India into the international markets as a buyer, as happened in 2009 after initial forecasts had called for normal rains. That year, Indian purchases of sugar sent prices to a record high.
A normal monsoon means the country receives rainfall between 96-104% of a 50-year average of 89cm during the four-month rainy season, according to the weather office classification.
Normal rains, however, may not help in the fight against inflation beyond generating positive sentiment. With agriculture accounting for only about 14.6% of GDP, its overall contribution to growth remains limited, some analysts said.
“It is too premature to make any prediction of the inflation trajectory just based on the monsoon forecast. What matters is not just the normal monsoon but also the geographical distribution of the rains,” Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist of Bank of Baroda, said.
“Secondly with global warming and other environmental hazards, the credibility of the early forecast is not very high. So it is not correct to base any projection of growth or inflation on these forecasts alone. It is only a positive, feel-good factor for the time being.”
The head of India’s metrological department said the weather pattern La Nina, which brings more than usual rain, would remain neutral. “So long as La Nina condition remains neutral, there is no cause for worry,” Ajit Tyagi said.
Earlier, the deputy head of India’s main state-run agriculture research organisation said good rains were expected over southern and central regions, boosting prospects for rice and soybean crops, but lower rainfall in the western region could impact reservoirs.
Monsoon forecasting in India is carried out by government-run organisations and has significant political implications in a country where more than 60% of voters are in rural communities and form the bulk of the government’s support base.