A global food crisis is looming driven by conflict, climate shocks, fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic, and massive public debt burdens.
This has been exacerbated by the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine, which has pushed food and fuel prices to accelerate in many nations across the globe.
By June this year, the number of acute food insecure people – whose access to food in the short term has been restricted to the point that their lives and livelihoods are at risk – increased to 345mn in some 82 countries according to United Nations World Food Programme (WFP).
Making matters worse, around 25 countries have reacted to higher food prices by adopting export restrictions affecting over 8% of global food trade.
In addition, complicating the food supply response is the doubling of fertiliser prices over the last twelve months, reflecting record-high costs of inputs such as natural gas.
Global stocks, which steadily increased over the last decade, need to be released to bring prices down.
All this is happening at a time when fiscal space for government action is already severely constrained following the Covid-19 pandemic, noted a recent joint statement on the global food security crisis by the heads of the Food and Agriculture Organisation, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Group, World Food Programme, and World Trade Organisation.
Beyond the short term, climate change is structurally affecting agriculture productivity in many countries, they warned.
A recent report by FAO and WFP warned that the effects of the war in Ukraine are expected to be particularly acute where economic instability and spiralling prices combine with drops in food production due to climate shocks such as recurrent droughts or flooding.
The report finds that – alongside conflict – frequent and recurring climate shocks continue to drive acute hunger and shows that we have entered a ‘new normal’ where droughts, flooding, hurricanes, and cyclones repeatedly decimate farming and livestock rearing, drive population displacement and push millions to the brink in countries across the world.
The report warns that worrisome climatic trends linked to La Niña since late 2020 are expected to continue through 2022, driving up humanitarian needs and acute hunger. An unprecedented drought in East Africa affecting Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya is leading to a fourth consecutive below-average rainfall season, while South Sudan will face its fourth consecutive year of large-scale flooding, which will likely continue to drive people from their homes and devastate crops and livestock production.
The report also expects above-average rains and a risk of localised flooding in the Sahel, a more intense hurricane season in the Caribbean, and below-average rains in Afghanistan, which is already reeling from multiple seasons of drought, violence and political upheaval.
The report also emphasises the urgency of the dire macroeconomic conditions in several countries – brought on by the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic and exacerbated by the recent upheaval in global food and energy markets.
Obviously, these conditions are causing dramatic income losses among the poorest communities and are straining the capacity of national governments to fund social safety nets, income-supporting measures, and the import of essential goods.