North Korea’s resumption of long-range missile tests, including a flight of its largest-ever weapon, puts it closer than ever to having a reliable way of delivering multiple nuclear warheads anywhere in the United States, analysts say.
North Korea reported its latest launch was the Hwasong-17, a huge new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), fired on Thursday in a test that leader Kim Jong-un said was designed to demonstrate the might of its nuclear force and deter any US military moves.
It was the first full-scale ICBM test launch since 2017. There were two launches in February and March that US officials said were preliminary tests of the Hwasong-17.
Some analysts said that discrepancies in imagery released by North Korea suggested that it may be hiding details about the launch, and South Korean media have reported that officials are examining whether the missile was in fact a Hwasong-17.
With a range that the Japanese government said probably exceeds 15,000km (9,320 miles), the missile fired on Thursday could strike targets anywhere in the world outside of a few countries in South America and parts of Antarctica.
That range, and its massive size, suggest North Korea plans to tip it with multiple warheads that could hit several targets or deploy decoys to confuse defenders, analysts say.
North Korea’s smaller Hwasong-15 ICBM, tested in 2017, can reach any part of the United States, but cannot carry as large a payload.
“Since there aren’t any good targets farther away, this missile is likely about carrying more weight — in the form of multiple nuclear warheads,” said Melissa Hanham, a researcher at Stanford University’s Centre for International Security and Co-operation (CISAC) in California. “This makes US
ballistic missile defence even more difficult to achieve.”
Along with other new weapons such as hypersonic missiles, smaller nuclear warheads and drones, North Korean leader Kim has made deployment of a 15,000km-range ICBM with multiple warheads a goal.
“The offensive arithmetic will be in their favour soon; they may be able to keep up with advances in American defences,” said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
US officials have predicted such advancements, and last year selected Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman to compete to build a Next Generation Interceptor (NGI) designed to shoot down missiles from “rogue nations”, said Thomas Karako, the director of the Missile Defence Project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“This (new missile) gives North Korea more options,” he said, noting that the longer range could also allow it to be fired at the United States using more indirect flight paths, potentially confusing defenders.
South Korean president-elect Yoon Suk-yeol has vowed to boost missile defences to counter North Korean weapons, and has suggested that developing a preemptive strike capability may be the only way to prevent a missile attack.
The “lofted” tests North Korea has conducted, which send missiles high into space rather than far away, help confirm some elements of the system, such as full engine burns and staging.
But other elements, such as accuracy and the survivability of the reentry vehicles that would carry a nuclear warhead, remain less verifiable in such tests, said Joseph Dempsey, a defence researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.